https://www.wsj.com/articles/in-tig...he-ones-to-watch-1541415600?mod=hp_major_pos9
For years, the Republican Party could count on strong support from one big bloc of the electorate: White men with college degrees. Now, there are signs that this once-reliable pillar of the GOP has not only weakened in its support for the party but has begun bolstering Democrats.
Polling throughout the year has shown white, college educated men tilting toward the Democratic Party by several percentage points--making them essentially a swing group, available to either party. These men account for nearly one in five voters in competitive House districts, polling shows, and so their candidate choices could be enough to provide a winning margin in many races on Tuesday.
Politically speaking, his group has traveled a long distance in recent decades. In 1994, 62% of white men with bachelor's degrees wanted Republicans to control Congress, while 29% preferred Democrats -- a net tilt to the GOP of 33 percentage points, Journal/NBC News polling found that year. Today, the picture is far different.
That's a substantial change, especially when compared with white men who don't have four-year college degrees. That group, often called working-class white men, remain core supporters of the Republican Party and overwhelmingly back President Trump.
But in 1994, when Journal/NBC News polling started tracking the trend, it was the white men with college degrees who leaned most heavily toward the GOP—as they did for years afterward.
The most recent Journal/NBC News poll, released Sunday, confirms the trend.
White men without degrees favor GOP control of Congress, 64% to 30%, the new poll found. White men with degrees favor Democratic control, 48% to 43%.
"That's a problem if you're a Republican," said Micah Roberts, a GOP polling expert with the firm Public Opinion Strategies, who works on Journal/NBC News polls. "One of the reasons they may not do well this year,'' he said, referring to GOP candidates, "is because, among other things, they're losing these very reliable voters.
This is specifically a subset within white males, those with college degrees, which the GOP is losing. Non-college educated white males are GOP stronghold.
For years, the Republican Party could count on strong support from one big bloc of the electorate: White men with college degrees. Now, there are signs that this once-reliable pillar of the GOP has not only weakened in its support for the party but has begun bolstering Democrats.
Polling throughout the year has shown white, college educated men tilting toward the Democratic Party by several percentage points--making them essentially a swing group, available to either party. These men account for nearly one in five voters in competitive House districts, polling shows, and so their candidate choices could be enough to provide a winning margin in many races on Tuesday.
Politically speaking, his group has traveled a long distance in recent decades. In 1994, 62% of white men with bachelor's degrees wanted Republicans to control Congress, while 29% preferred Democrats -- a net tilt to the GOP of 33 percentage points, Journal/NBC News polling found that year. Today, the picture is far different.
That's a substantial change, especially when compared with white men who don't have four-year college degrees. That group, often called working-class white men, remain core supporters of the Republican Party and overwhelmingly back President Trump.
But in 1994, when Journal/NBC News polling started tracking the trend, it was the white men with college degrees who leaned most heavily toward the GOP—as they did for years afterward.
The most recent Journal/NBC News poll, released Sunday, confirms the trend.
White men without degrees favor GOP control of Congress, 64% to 30%, the new poll found. White men with degrees favor Democratic control, 48% to 43%.
"That's a problem if you're a Republican," said Micah Roberts, a GOP polling expert with the firm Public Opinion Strategies, who works on Journal/NBC News polls. "One of the reasons they may not do well this year,'' he said, referring to GOP candidates, "is because, among other things, they're losing these very reliable voters.
This is specifically a subset within white males, those with college degrees, which the GOP is losing. Non-college educated white males are GOP stronghold.
