I see a lot of threads and posts on here saying that we need to vote for Biden against Trump no matter what. And I agree, if the general election is between Biden and Trump, you should vote to stop Trump if you can live with yourself. But. That scenario is not yet here. I think it may be too fatalistic to assume it is inevitable. It is still possible to stop Biden as the Democratic party nominee. It is still possible to avoid a general election between 2 (alleged) rapists. Here are a few scenarios:
Scenario 1: The race is not over. Sanders can still win
Below is the delegate count of Democratic primary candidates
Biden is still quite far off from getting all the candidates he needs. Sanders is not mathematically eliminated from the race.
However, Biden still has all of the current momentum. An unprecedented shift would be needed to turn the race around. However, maybe such a shift is possible? If the accusations are signal boosted and talked about on national media, it is possible that could turn public opinion sufficiently against Biden to stop him from taking the nomination
Advantages:
This is the only somewhat plausible way to not get an (alleged) rapist as the Democratic party nominee who legitimately won the primary race. This gives him legitimacy as a candidate compared to other scenarios that involve convention fuckery
Polling indicates that Sanders could do well against Trump. He's not polling as well as Biden, but still polls well.
Risks:
Going scorched earth on Biden is quite risky in case he does end up as the democratic party nominee anyway. If the accusations are signal boosted it will be all that much easier for the republicans to exploit them in the general election if Biden still wins the nomination. And he is quite likely to do so no matter what given his current lead and momentum
Sanders is arguably a risky candidate in his own right. He has lost to Biden so far, which may indicate he wouldn't have what it takes to beat Trump either, despite what polls say. Maybe Americans are really that afraid of socialism.
Scenario 2: Another candidate enters aiming for a contested convention
It is possible for someone new to enter the race, or for someone who dropped out to get back in. The race is sufficiently close that a popular third candidate would take enough votes to stop Biden from getting a majority of delegates. Then superdelegates get a say and can ensure that an (alleged) rapist doesn't get the nomination. The person entering could be some new like Cuomo or someone who dropped out of the race like Warren, Klobuchar, or (ugh) Bloomberg
Advantages:
If you think Sanders can't win this is a way to keep the nomination from the (alleged) rapist, while still ensuring the candidate is not Sanders
Risks:
This scenario would have the nomination taken away from Biden even though he won the most delegates. Whatever candidate the superdelegates give the win, whether it be the person who (re)entered the race or someone new would lack legitimacy.
To get enough delegates to block Biden, you'd still need to go negative against him. This has the same risks as scenario 1 should Biden still win.
No other person, as far as I know, currently polls as well against Trump as Biden and Sanders. Going through all the risks, just to get someone else who loses against (self-admitted) rapist Donald Trump would be bad.
Scenario 3: Get through to Biden who makes a deal to get a replacement
Supposedly, the reason Biden is running is because he really wanted to stop Donald Trump. If this is the real reason, maybe he can be talked into understanding how he is a liability, and for the best of the country work out a replacement. Whether that means he drops out of the race now or stays until the convention, then gives his delegates to someone else, that would ensure someone who is not an (alleged) rapist gets a shot at going up against Donald Trump
Advantages:
Biden has legitimately been winning the democratic primary election so far. If someone ideologically aligned with him gets the nomination, that would more respect the will of the people who voted for him.
This is the only scenario to stop Biden that doesn't risk Biden winning after we have spent months arguably helping Trump by bringing attention to Biden's problems (such as being an (alleged) rapist)
Risks:
Voters don't get any direct say in who specifically the nominee is
We're at the mercy of Biden doing introspection. He may not. Then we haven't done all we could to stop him
Scenario 4: It's too late. We can't stop Biden. So let's not ruin his chances
Regrettably it may be impossible to stop Biden if we think no one else can get enough votes in scenarios 1 and 2 and if we assume it wouldn't be possible to talk sense into him as per scenario 3.
Advantages:
Polls show he currently has the best chance to beat Trump. I've been in denial about this fact myself but it's probably true.
We don't risk helping Trump by bringing attention to Biden's problems during the primary (such as being an (alleged) rapist)
Risks/problems:
You'd have to vote for an (alleged) rapist
Republicans may very well be able to bring attention to this matter no matter what happens during the primary. Then you'd have to vote for an (alleged) rapist who still loses to Trump. Hillary had no blame in Benghazi and the email servers, while dumb and unnecessary, was mostly a non-story yet republicans were able to use both to depress turnout for Hilllary. This could be much much worse than those non-stories
Democrats would lose all sorts of moral higher ground. Next time Republicans want to nominate a pedophile to the Senate, or an (alleged) rapist to the Supreme court, they can easily point to how Democrats had no problems voting for an (alleged) rapist themselves
Possible fifth stance: You like Biden's policies and ideology more than Sanders's and you are ok with voting for an (alleged) rapist because of this
I think there may be people like this out there. I have been trying to stay neutral throughout this post but I can't bring myself to writing up advantages for this stance. So I won't write anything more here
Do you all agree with me? Do you also think it's still possible to stop Biden? Should we take the associated risks? Please discuss.
Scenario 1: The race is not over. Sanders can still win
Below is the delegate count of Democratic primary candidates
Biden is still quite far off from getting all the candidates he needs. Sanders is not mathematically eliminated from the race.
However, Biden still has all of the current momentum. An unprecedented shift would be needed to turn the race around. However, maybe such a shift is possible? If the accusations are signal boosted and talked about on national media, it is possible that could turn public opinion sufficiently against Biden to stop him from taking the nomination
Advantages:
This is the only somewhat plausible way to not get an (alleged) rapist as the Democratic party nominee who legitimately won the primary race. This gives him legitimacy as a candidate compared to other scenarios that involve convention fuckery
Polling indicates that Sanders could do well against Trump. He's not polling as well as Biden, but still polls well.
Risks:
Going scorched earth on Biden is quite risky in case he does end up as the democratic party nominee anyway. If the accusations are signal boosted it will be all that much easier for the republicans to exploit them in the general election if Biden still wins the nomination. And he is quite likely to do so no matter what given his current lead and momentum
Sanders is arguably a risky candidate in his own right. He has lost to Biden so far, which may indicate he wouldn't have what it takes to beat Trump either, despite what polls say. Maybe Americans are really that afraid of socialism.
Scenario 2: Another candidate enters aiming for a contested convention
It is possible for someone new to enter the race, or for someone who dropped out to get back in. The race is sufficiently close that a popular third candidate would take enough votes to stop Biden from getting a majority of delegates. Then superdelegates get a say and can ensure that an (alleged) rapist doesn't get the nomination. The person entering could be some new like Cuomo or someone who dropped out of the race like Warren, Klobuchar, or (ugh) Bloomberg
Advantages:
If you think Sanders can't win this is a way to keep the nomination from the (alleged) rapist, while still ensuring the candidate is not Sanders
Risks:
This scenario would have the nomination taken away from Biden even though he won the most delegates. Whatever candidate the superdelegates give the win, whether it be the person who (re)entered the race or someone new would lack legitimacy.
To get enough delegates to block Biden, you'd still need to go negative against him. This has the same risks as scenario 1 should Biden still win.
No other person, as far as I know, currently polls as well against Trump as Biden and Sanders. Going through all the risks, just to get someone else who loses against (self-admitted) rapist Donald Trump would be bad.
Scenario 3: Get through to Biden who makes a deal to get a replacement
Supposedly, the reason Biden is running is because he really wanted to stop Donald Trump. If this is the real reason, maybe he can be talked into understanding how he is a liability, and for the best of the country work out a replacement. Whether that means he drops out of the race now or stays until the convention, then gives his delegates to someone else, that would ensure someone who is not an (alleged) rapist gets a shot at going up against Donald Trump
Advantages:
Biden has legitimately been winning the democratic primary election so far. If someone ideologically aligned with him gets the nomination, that would more respect the will of the people who voted for him.
This is the only scenario to stop Biden that doesn't risk Biden winning after we have spent months arguably helping Trump by bringing attention to Biden's problems (such as being an (alleged) rapist)
Risks:
Voters don't get any direct say in who specifically the nominee is
We're at the mercy of Biden doing introspection. He may not. Then we haven't done all we could to stop him
Scenario 4: It's too late. We can't stop Biden. So let's not ruin his chances
Regrettably it may be impossible to stop Biden if we think no one else can get enough votes in scenarios 1 and 2 and if we assume it wouldn't be possible to talk sense into him as per scenario 3.
Advantages:
Polls show he currently has the best chance to beat Trump. I've been in denial about this fact myself but it's probably true.
We don't risk helping Trump by bringing attention to Biden's problems during the primary (such as being an (alleged) rapist)
Risks/problems:
You'd have to vote for an (alleged) rapist
Republicans may very well be able to bring attention to this matter no matter what happens during the primary. Then you'd have to vote for an (alleged) rapist who still loses to Trump. Hillary had no blame in Benghazi and the email servers, while dumb and unnecessary, was mostly a non-story yet republicans were able to use both to depress turnout for Hilllary. This could be much much worse than those non-stories
Democrats would lose all sorts of moral higher ground. Next time Republicans want to nominate a pedophile to the Senate, or an (alleged) rapist to the Supreme court, they can easily point to how Democrats had no problems voting for an (alleged) rapist themselves
Possible fifth stance: You like Biden's policies and ideology more than Sanders's and you are ok with voting for an (alleged) rapist because of this
I think there may be people like this out there. I have been trying to stay neutral throughout this post but I can't bring myself to writing up advantages for this stance. So I won't write anything more here
Do you all agree with me? Do you also think it's still possible to stop Biden? Should we take the associated risks? Please discuss.
