It is still possible to avoid getting an (alleged) rapist as President. A few possible scenarios

Should Democrats try to stop Biden because of the allegations that he is a rapist? If so, how?

  • Yes. Go scorched earth on Biden and try to make Sanders win (scenario 1)

  • Yes. A third candidate should (re)enter the race to achieve a contested convention (scenario 2)

  • Yes. Leaders of the party and others should try to talk to Biden to choose a replacement (scenario 3

  • No. It's too late to stop Biden or to risky to try. We're stuck voting for him (scenario 4)

  • No. I like Biden's policies more so I support him despite him being an (alleged) rapist (stance 5)


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psynergyadept

Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,201
It's 4 and we all know it......

This story sadly isn't even getting any play on the mainstream news as everything is getting drowned out by the corona virus.
 

Thorn

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,612
I don’t know how to tell you that at this very moment, Biden has 40% of the popular vote. Bernie has 30%.

just because he has less delegates doesn’t mean people aren’t voting for him. And just because enough democrats aren’t voting for him in the primary to secure a delegate lead doesn’t mean they are not a coalition of voters that Biden happens to not share.
And Sanders has failed to convince that 11% to vote for him in the Primary. (Also where's the other 30%?)
Because I have given up on any campaign that hinges on the youth vote turning out to the polls
Same. The Youth Vote showed why they are COMPLETELY irrelevant in politics on Super Tuesday.
 

Jarmel

The Jackrabbit Always Wins
Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,679
New York
The only way Sanders gets the nomination is if Biden drops dead tomorrow and a ton of convention fuckery happens. It’s done.
 

Deepwater

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,504
And Sanders has failed to convince that 11% to vote for him in the Primary. (Also where's the other 30%?)

Same. The Youth Vote showed why they are COMPLETELY irrelevant in politics on Super Tuesday.
Okay. We’re getting nowhere.

can you describe your definition of a coalition? You can’t use the word “winning” either. There’s a fundamental misunderstanding of words here and I feel like you’re just using the conversation to opine about how Bernie isn’t in the lead. Which isn’t the point that I am making

the other 30% are spread out amongst the rest of the primary candidates.
 

Thorn

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,612
Okay. We’re getting nowhere.

can you describe your definition of a coalition? You can’t use the word “winning” either. There’s a fundamental misunderstanding of words here and I feel like you’re just using the conversation to opine about how Bernie isn’t in the lead. Which isn’t the point that I am making

the other 30% are spread out amongst the rest of the primary candidates.
Sanders DOES have a coalition, but not one to beat Biden is the point.

That other 30% by the way you mention went to Biden, not Sanders, so its now 30% vs 70%
 

Deepwater

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,504
Sanders DOES have a coalition, but not one to beat Biden is the point.

That other 30% by the way you mention went to Biden, not Sanders, so its now 30% vs 70%
okay so you agree with me. I'm glad we could come to this conclusion after we started off here

Sanders literally DID NOT Make a coalition though, thats why no one endorsed him when they dropped out. Its why Biden is completely demolishing now. Sanders only hope of winning the Primary was a divided primary. Thats gone now and Biden is completely crushing him. I don't know why you can't seem to understand that.
 

Mewshuji

Member
Nov 11, 2017
3,805
I'm okay with 1, 2, or 3, but picked 1 for obvious reasons (being the best choice by miles). 4 is for lazy or defeatist people. Shame on the former, I can't blame you in the latter but implore you to keep trying. 5... I have strong opinions about people who pick 5 which I'm not at liberty to share for fear of my standing with the mod team. Unless they're victims themselves, in which case I can say it, and what I can say is: I hope you're right.
 
Dec 6, 2019
1,084
It is the second time in a row Sanders can't convince the average Democrat voter. What is the chance he can convince the average American? It is either Biden or a consensus candidate picked with Biden's support.
This is where I am, too.

But will Biden step aside? Unlikely.

Scenario 4

Edit: I see there's no "Trump wins by default" option. The news concerning Biden has made that a strong possibility, given this board's reaction to the news about Biden over the past few days.

OFC, ERA is not representative of the electorate....
 

thecouncil

Member
Oct 29, 2017
3,817
Bernie can run third party and win. If you combine us with Twitter, that's a hell of a lot of people. You just need to VOTE!
 

Toxi

The Fallen
Oct 27, 2017
11,498
I voted for Sanders. This entire situation is shitty and it's shameful how little attention this is getting by the media.

But situation 4 is gonna be what happens.
 

SoZetaSlow

Member
Sep 20, 2019
1,064
Because I have given up on any campaign that hinges on the youth vote turning out to the polls
Okay so I want to clarify something here. If Biden did drop out of the race or was forced out by the party or whatever, would you vote for Bernie in the general and do you think he would lose against trump despite the polls suggesting otherwise?
Bernie fans

it’s over, ok?

its over
He's the only other candidate currently running, of course people are going to suggest going for him over Biden after this. Like this isn't about Bernie supporters just refusing to let go or some shit, its about people not wanting a rapist
 

Rover

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,870
First of all, hydrophilic attack , I'd like to say thank you for putting together a pretty well thought out OP, presenting a pretty good framework for discussing this.

Of those options, 3 seems like the most plausible solution, though I wouldn't be against a Bernie nomination either.


Towards options 4 and 5, I'd like to say that the American public is generally not good at making collective decisions, i.e. weighing outcomes to find the greater good. But I wish we were. We were all taught that a vote belongs to each us individually, each vote should reflect our own personal wants and opinions, and the chips fall where they may once they're counted up.

But a democracy was intended to have dialogue, (real) debate and consensus-building, especially within our own sphere of thinking. That is even more true in a very polarized two-party system. We can't escape that "Democrats," as a tent, are going to have to weigh a lot of positives and negatives. We've been in ugly political situations with unsavory politicians for a long time now. It's all we have to work with.

I do get the sense, like many others, that our political process is horrible and sliding backwards into the abyss. But is the solution to just disengage from it entirely? Don't vote and just watch everything burn? That wont fix anything. Do we just give up because the choices are hard? We really shouldn't. At the end of the day, millions of people suffer or prosper based on our individual ability to find the time and the will at a ballot box. That's what votes should be based on - the outcomes we want the vast collectives of people in this country to have, not who gets to sit in the oval office and what cult of personality they bring. The best outcome for us right now might be for a D president to rubberstamp a D House and D Senate to try and stop the bleeding.
 

PlanetSmasher

The Abominable Showman
Member
Oct 25, 2017
40,413
It's 4. Even if Sanders went completely over the top trying to take Biden down he still wouldn't win because not enough people like him or believe in his ideas.
 

Deepwater

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,504
Pardon, I meant to say "Enough of a coalition" then.
Regardless of where the goalpost is now, that doesn't really rebut my original point.

We can go in circles all day about whether or not Bernie did well enough to win the Democratic primary. My point is

A. 30% of the primary electorate is significant and represents a coalition strong enough to at the minimum convince Democrats to vote for their candidate. I'm not here to debate that the 7.5 million people (as opposed to Biden's 10 million) is some how indicative that Democrats won't vote for either person on the top of the ticket
B. The other people Democrats need to vote for them are traditional non-voters and independent voters. These people will vote based on who they like (or dislike) at the top of the ticket. Bernie polls better with these people compared to Biden. These people largely don't participate in the primary
C. Regardless, Biden *could* still win, but GOTV will be difficult to convince people who otherwise haven't decided both *if* they're going to vote and *who* they're going to vote for. My hypothesis is that it is easier to reach these people with Bernie than Biden.
D. The aforementioned demographic decides the margins of practically all the battleground states. These are the people who are going to decide the election.
E. The economy may be so bad that a potato could beat Trump, but it hasn't gotten that bad yet. It probably will, but November is over half a year out from now.

If you cannot refute or respond to any of those points directly, please do not bother.
 

Lothars

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
5,975
Bernie can run third party and win. If you combine us with Twitter, that's a hell of a lot of people. You just need to VOTE!
If Bernie runs third party not only will trump be elected, Bernie will lose by a massive margin

option 3 is the option that makes the most sense and it should be Warren chosen, shes a much better option than Biden or Bernie.
 
Oct 27, 2017
1,012
It's wild that barely a month ago Bernie was essentially the presumptive nominee, and now people are saying that a dead Biden would still beat Bernie. I mean, come on.

It's also bizarre to think that the combination of all the candidates dropping out and endorsing Biden with the $72mm or so of corresponding [free] positive media coverage over just a few days, and the overwhelmingly negative media coverage of Sanders, didn't have an impact. What it came down to in the end with a lot of voters was this vague premise of 'electability,' and those things helped Biden tremendously make that claim to be the one to beat Trump (which again, was the top issue for a lot of people. Just look at the contrast in M4A exit polling).

But yeah, we're most likely stuck with scenario #4 and the horrifyingly inevitability of it. The rape story is just awful and it's been sickening to see people dismissing it.
 

Blue Skies

Member
Mar 27, 2019
7,984
Scenario 1 just ends in a lose lose scenario.
biden can’t lose this.

ONLY way I see it happen is if he drops out himself, or if Obama gets involved.
Neither are happening.
 

PlanetSmasher

The Abominable Showman
Member
Oct 25, 2017
40,413
It's wild that barely a month ago Bernie was essentially the presumptive nominee, and now people are saying that a dead Biden would still beat Bernie. I mean, come on.

It's also bizarre to think that the combination of all the candidates dropping out and endorsing Biden with the $72mm or so of corresponding [free] positive media coverage over just a few days, and the overwhelmingly negative media coverage of Sanders, didn't have an impact. What it came down to in the end with a lot of voters was this vague premise of 'electability,' and those things helped Biden tremendously make that claim to be the one to beat Trump (which again, was the top issue for a lot of people. Just look at the contrast in M4A exit polling).

But yeah, we're most likely stuck with scenario #4 and the horrifyingly inevitability of it. The rape story is just awful and it's been sickening to see people dismissing it.
It's a shame we got to the point we're at at all. It would've been so much better if Biden and Bernie both stayed out of this election.
 

Toxi

The Fallen
Oct 27, 2017
11,498
It's wild that barely a month ago Bernie was essentially the presumptive nominee, and now people are saying that a dead Biden would still beat Bernie. I mean, come on.

It's also bizarre to think that the combination of all the candidates dropping out and endorsing Biden with the $72mm or so of corresponding [free] positive media coverage over just a few days, and the overwhelmingly negative media coverage of Sanders, didn't have an impact. What it came down to in the end with a lot of voters was this vague premise of 'electability,' and those things helped Biden tremendously make that claim to be the one to beat Trump (which again, was the top issue for a lot of people. Just look at the contrast in M4A exit polling).

But yeah, we're most likely stuck with scenario #4 and it's horrifyingly inevitably. The rape story is just awful and it's been sickening to see people dismissing it.
Bernie was relying on a split field to win. When candidates inevitably dropped out, he didn't have a plan to build bridges and expand his base further.
 

Jecht

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,574
I'm voting Sanders in November regardless of who the DNC chooses. And I don't particularly care what anyone thinks about that.
 

steveovig

Member
Oct 25, 2017
784
A couple of these scenarios aren't really even possible or probable and are just fantasy booking for leftists. What does scorched earth mean, and who is going to go scorched earth on Biden? The left? The rest of the Dems? It makes no sense.

The best we can hope for is we get a contested convention and they get a better choice than Biden or Bernie. Bernie certainly isn't the answer especially considering he's basically lost two Primaries in a row.
 

Deepwater

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,504
It's wild that barely a month ago Bernie was essentially the presumptive nominee, and now people are saying that a dead Biden would still beat Bernie. I mean, come on.

It's also bizarre to think that the combination of all the candidates dropping out and endorsing Biden with the $72mm or so of corresponding [free] positive media coverage over just a few days, and the overwhelmingly negative media coverage of Sanders, didn't have an impact. What it came down to in the end with a lot of voters was this vague premise of 'electability,' and those things helped Biden tremendously make that claim to be the one to beat Trump (which again, was the top issue for a lot of people. Just look at the contrast in M4A exit polling).

But yeah, we're most likely stuck with scenario #4 and the horrifyingly inevitability of it. The rape story is just awful and it's been sickening to see people dismissing it.
People trust media narratives. And the fact that the black electorate was largely convinced in South Carolina by a single person's endorsement which led to a domino effect of confirmation bias amongst all the immediately proceeding states (people pick winners) that effectively made the race non competitive.

People should really ask themselves if SC primaried this Tuesday instead of a month ago, would they be convinced that Biden would be in the lead? I'm more than happy to admit that Bernie didn't have a perfect campaign, but there's a more subtle, invisible phenomenon that happened after SC that influenced the primaries (not to mention the specific states in particular) that happened just a few days later. That's all part of the primary race, I'm not disputing that, but some people make it into a conversation of "bernie didn't convince people" where that's not an accurate assessment of what happened post-SC
 

Toxi

The Fallen
Oct 27, 2017
11,498
People trust media narratives. And the fact that the black electorate was largely convinced in South Carolina by a single person's endorsement which led to a domino effect of confirmation bias amongst all the immediately proceeding states (people pick winners) that effectively made the race non competitive.

People should really ask themselves if SC primaried this Tuesday instead of a month ago, would they be convinced that Biden would be in the lead? I'm more than happy to admit that Bernie didn't have a perfect campaign, but there's a more subtle, invisible phenomenon that happened after SC that influenced the primaries (not to mention the specific states in particular) that happened just a few days later. That's all part of the primary race, I'm not disputing that, but some people make it into a conversation of "bernie didn't convince people" where that's not an accurate assessment of what happened post-SC
I live in Iowa, the very first state to choose the nominee. We chose Bernie (well, we chose Bernie and Pete, but people remember it as a Bernie win). So did New Hampshire and Nevada. All before South Carolina.

If it wasn't going to be SC, it was going to be another state.
 

Lothars

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
5,975
People trust media narratives. And the fact that the black electorate was largely convinced in South Carolina by a single person's endorsement which led to a domino effect of confirmation bias amongst all the immediately proceeding states (people pick winners) that effectively made the race non competitive.

People should really ask themselves if SC primaried this Tuesday instead of a month ago, would they be convinced that Biden would be in the lead? I'm more than happy to admit that Bernie didn't have a perfect campaign, but there's a more subtle, invisible phenomenon that happened after SC that influenced the primaries (not to mention the specific states in particular) that happened just a few days later. That's all part of the primary race, I'm not disputing that, but some people make it into a conversation of "bernie didn't convince people" where that's not an accurate assessment of what happened post-SC
Yeah it is, Bernie doesn’t have it and never did. Super Tuesday just confirmed it. He shouldn’t be the nominee
 

GuessMyUserName

Avenger
Oct 27, 2017
2,069
Toronto
#1 is just not true, I don't see anyone kicking up #2.

#3 could maybe be a possibility if enough traction digs through? Alternatively boost up an attractive VP that Biden may end up stepping down to.

#4 is the most probable, the race is very much over and with COVID-19 and the strong Biden results just before it, the primary scene is very much switched off for the general public.

... #5 isn't a scenario so that's kind of a weird ending tagged on. If Era selected the nominee we wouldn't be here.
 

Deepwater

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,504
I live in Iowa, the very first state to choose the nominee. We chose Bernie (well, we chose Bernie and Pete, but people remember it as a Bernie win). So did New Hampshire and Nevada. All before South Carolina.

If it wasn't going to be SC, it was going to be another state.
SC politics are particularly unique when it comes to the Democrats. If Texas, Washington, and California went after Nevada, the race probably would have been more competitive. Instead you ended up in a situation where a very black southern state chose biden (after being convinced by an exalted congressional rep), and then the rest of the nearby black, southern states swung towards Biden. When Biden went 20+ in the polls in Virginia after SC, thats when I knew the wheels were falling off.

When all of those states finished, Biden had a comfortable delegate lead and media narrative to match. Which ate away at the margins in states like Texas, Washington, and Michigan. Note I'm not saying that Bernie doesn't own responsibility or agency over his campaign, particularly from that moment forward, but I'm not going to ignore whats going to be written by people in 5/10/15 years when people reflect.

The order of the primaries had a large impact on the "electability" narrative and I don't see how anybody could claim otherwise
 

PlanetSmasher

The Abominable Showman
Member
Oct 25, 2017
40,413
Y'all keep talking about Bernie not winning the primary but want to push the candidate that took 3rd in her own state.
Warren would've made a better president than either of them, in my opinion. She'll never have it, she'll never get the nomination, but I would vastly prefer her in the White House over Biden sleepwalking through his term accomplishing very little and Bernie spending all four years whining that Congress won't do what he wants and also accomplishing next to nothing.
 

ChippyTurtle

Member
Oct 13, 2018
1,814
Democrats would vote for a potted plant if it was between it and Trump. We can vote Bernie in the general, just do something to increase your chances of winning the general. Get a moderate VP, shut the fuck up about a revolution, pivot to how your a good person.
 

Deepwater

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,504
Yeah it is, Bernie doesn’t have it and never did. Super Tuesday just confirmed it. He shouldn’t be the nominee
Y'all keep talking about Bernie not winning the primary but want to push the candidate that took 3rd in her own state.
because she’s a much better candidate with policies that actually work and she would have a way better chance compared to Bernie
This makes these kind of conversations very difficult because we are not operating in the same reality. People will literally say one thing about one candidate, and say something completely contradicting about another. That's how bad the discourse is. I like warren, and I wish her and Bernie were the only ones in the primary to begin with, but if you measure Bernie on his primary performance and say he's a bad candidate, you cannot two minutes later ignore Warren's primary performance and say she's a good candidate.

It's just not honest. Lets be honest, for once.
 

Chindogg

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,562
East Lansing, MI
Democrats would vote for a potted plant if it was between it and Trump. We can vote Bernie in the general, just do something to increase your chances of winning the general. Get a moderate VP, shut the fuck up about a revolution, pivot to how your a good person.
It's weird how Sanders is doing practically everything right since Covid-19 happened. Even if it's too late he's basically the only candidate still in the media trying to help people. Where the fuck is Warren?
 

Arkeband

Member
Nov 8, 2017
4,861
Warren would've made a better president than either of them, in my opinion. She'll never have it, she'll never get the nomination, but I would vastly prefer her in the White House over Biden sleepwalking through his term accomplishing very little and Bernie spending all four years whining that Congress won't do what he wants and also accomplishing next to nothing.
The idea that Warren wouldn’t be equally as useless with a Republican controlled senate is amusing. It’s going to come down to who can energize their voters to flip the Senate in 2022 and who will use the power of executive order the most aggressively, and that’s Sanders.
 

Agar25

Member
Apr 12, 2018
7,367
I wish so much the best case scenario itt would come to pass, I also have zero faith that it will. It’s just such a fucking mess
 

Lothars

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
5,975
This makes these kind of conversations very difficult because we are not operating in the same reality. People will literally say one thing about one candidate, and say something completely contradicting about another. That's how bad the discourse is. I like warren, and I wish her and Bernie were the only ones in the primary to begin with, but if you measure Bernie on his primary performance and say he's a bad candidate, you cannot two minutes later ignore Warren's primary performance and say she's a good candidate.

It's just not honest. Lets be honest, for once.
you want honest, Bernie sucks Biden sucks if the primary didn’t have either of them it would be better, Bernie is losing by a wider margin than 2016 and he will lose this one because he’s a bad candidate and always has been even if the policies he supports are good.

SC politics are particularly unique when it comes to the Democrats. If Texas, Washington, and California went after Nevada, the race probably would have been more competitive. Instead you ended up in a situation where a very black southern state chose biden (after being convinced by an exalted congressional rep), and then the rest of the nearby black, southern states swung towards Biden. When Biden went 20+ in the polls in Virginia after SC, thats when I knew the wheels were falling off.

When all of those states finished, Biden had a comfortable delegate lead and media narrative to match. Which ate away at the margins in states like Texas, Washington, and Michigan. Note I'm not saying that Bernie doesn't own responsibility or agency over his campaign, particularly from that moment forward, but I'm not going to ignore whats going to be written by people in 5/10/15 years when people reflect.

The order of the primaries had a large impact on the "electability" narrative and I don't see how anybody could claim otherwise
the narrative will continue to be that Bernie won’t be candidate because he lost two primaries
 

ty_hot

Member
Dec 14, 2017
4,508
There is no way the establishment will let the possibility of someone else taking over happen. They are happier with one of their own, no matter who and in what circumstances, than with any other person.