That and the fact that the young voters he appealed to didn't turn out in the numbers he needed to win the primaries.
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It is still possible to avoid getting an (alleged) rapist as President. A few possible scenarios
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I don't have faith in that electorate when it comes to the general election given 2016
I think you fail to understand that most people don't care that he's an (I ) and not a (D), in fact, his "Fuck the Democrats" strategy HURT him among Black Voters. A lot of young people may see Democrats as the enemy but a lot of Black Voters see them as cornerstones of their community.
But you have faith in them voting for Sanders simply because he's not a Democrat?
His strategy to win SC literally hinged on Harris and Booker staying in the race long enough to divide black voters. He did not have a plan to win anything more than a plurality of voters in a divided election, which meant he never really had a plan at all. He was not doing fine, he was running on borrowed time.
that has absolutely nothing to do with what I said. You said how will independent voters see Sanders because he's a career politician and I said he's largely fails to identify with the Democratic Party for most of his congressional career. Were not talking about black voters, black voter aren't the electorate that I'm talking about here
Is it absolutely necessary to phrase it this way? Cause Trumps mental health one way or the other is not the reason he is a bad president
Yep, obviously every one is going to have their preferences of the three but any other option would mean two rapists as the candidates in the general, which I hope most people here don't want
My heart says #1, but I know that isn't going to work. #2 is completely contingent on finding some secret super candidate out of nowhere so it's completely improbable. #3 would be good, but also not likely to happen...
#4 is likely the choice the country is going to be faced with and it fucking sucks that it has even come to this point
#4 is likely the choice the country is going to be faced with and it fucking sucks that it has even come to this point
I didn't mention Career Politician, you're mistaking me with someone else. And again, his inability to identify with the Democrat Party HURT HIM.
They aren't afraid of socialist policies as evident by approval numbers of said policies. They are uncomfortable with the 'anti-establishment/revolution' rhetoric.
Yup. People like Sander's ideas, but not him and/or his way of messaging it.
suburban women are not the independent voters that that flip flop based on the candidate I'm referring to.
Seems very odd that the conservative media isn't making political hay out of it either. They are not exactly known for their restraint.I answered the poll that I think the party should talk to him. But my real instinct is that we're stuck with him.
I think we care about this issue a lot more than the press seems to. Nothing about this shows up on Google News if you search for Biden, and I mean nothing. Probably because these are old allegations which isn't enough for the media to make hay of it.
In fact the media is swooning about the "top 10 women Joe Biden might pick as VP" which is pretty far afield of taking this seriously.
You're acting like Independent is a party itself. "Independent" voters are all over the place, politically, and it isn't a meaningful descriptor of anything by itself
The Moderate Middle Is A Myth
Graphics by Ella Koeze Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: Independent voters will decide the election. Or better yet: Moderate voters will decide the elec…
fivethirtyeight.com
youre right, I did confuse you with someone else.
his inability to identify with the Democratic Party did hurt him to secure the democratic nomination. But the democrats were always going to vote for whomever was nominated. The idea that they wouldn't because of Bernie is 100% delusion. The question always should be traditional non voters and independents who are swayed largely by who is at the top of the ballot. Those people largely don't participate in the primary, and those who do end up voting in November will decide the election in most battleground states barring some unforeseen major variable
Cynically, I fear that they're bidin' their time until it's most effective. I would imagine a big signal boost is coming in October.
If Sanders didn't have a hard ceiling of between 30% and 35% of the Democratic base, a one-on-one race against Biden wouldn't have been such a killing blow against him. The fact that when people started dropping out all that support went to Biden and practically none of it went to Sanders is just political gravity setting in and not some grand conspiracy. A plurality win is never something a candidate should be actively gunning for. The fact that Sanders' strategy was banking on other candidates staying in the race for as long as possible and their followers self-gerrymandering the moderate vote among each other was a red flag to begin with since Bernie was hedging his bets on a factor he could not control.
And I think Biden's pretty much impossible to overtake at this point. There aren't many states left where Sanders has enough of a decisive advantage to gain the upper hand and plenty of states left where Biden can widen his lead. At this point it seems most folks just want the primary over and done with.
Whatever you may think of Biden, he's the only Democratic candidate who has managed to build a coalition that's capable of going against Trump in the general and have a viable chance at flipping the senate. In terms of results, that's probably the best people can hope for.
It's the combo of the "democratic-socialist" label in general (that is simply a non-starter for so many people) and the revolution rhetoric you described.
I don't like any of those poll options (ha). Imo Biden himself should come out and take responsibility.
Because democrat primary voters aren't the same as American general voters. That's the whole point. I don't know what I or Deepwater could say to further convince you there's a difference there.
Who was the nom for the dems last time? Also they voted for a guy who actually bothered to show up. He fed them bullshit knowing he was never going to deliver.
We're now nearing the end of that 4 year term, and the Democratic Party is about to have a nominee whose entire theory is that if he's president the Republican Party will stop being evil and start helping people (like those middle class swing voters they worked with Trump to fuck over). Sanders theory is that if he's president he's going to show up in states and relentlessly campaign against conservatives in both parties and threaten their poll numbers until they either give in or get voted out.
They're both just theories, but I suspect "I'll fight for you" plays better than "I'll unite the two parties you don't really like". Also, probably not being a rapist > being a rapist.
You're acting like Independent is a party itself. "Independent" voters are all over the place, politically, and it isn't a meaningful descriptor of anything by itself
The Moderate Middle Is A Myth
Graphics by Ella Koeze Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: Independent voters will decide the election. Or better yet: Moderate voters will decide the elec…
they are all over the place, politically. I guarantee you there are people who identify as conservative and leftist didn't vote for Hillary in 2016.
But with that being said, my point is that people either vote for candidates they like, or against candidates they don't like. it is a gamble to assume that enough people within that subgroup will not like trump enough to convince them to vote for Biden. But then again, it's the same for Bernie, but those people generally have more favorable views on Bernie than Biden which is why I'm making this argument.
pretty much the only way Biden isn't the nominee at this point is if enough behind the scenes pressure builds that he decides to drop out
which is possible I guess but probably pretty unlikely
which is possible I guess but probably pretty unlikely
Usually they would run with the announcement of the allegations and repeat them ad nauseam day in and day out until they are gospel truth. I mean it's possible, but it certainly isn't the M.O.
Sanders literally could not get his own base to go out and vote, what makes you think he's going to make Independents vote in droves to support him?
Sanders is obviously the best choice but he's been called a kook by Dem party establishment and the media for so long I think it has just eroded his electability plus his version of change is just way too scary for the donor class. I don't really know what other options there are. I think Biden's skeletons will bury him. GoP have no problems supporting sex offenders but Dems will struggle with it enough to make him lose imo.
Isn't one of the issues that they don't have as much weight anymore since they don't vote first?
Which, ironically, is a concession they made for Bernie after last time.
Any combination of 1/2/3 would be much better than what we're dealing with now.
Biden's lost plenty of presidential primaries as well. When the narrative changes, so too do voters.
Back in 2016 we were all claiming Cambridge Analytica/the media/Russians/Facebook/Comey handed Trump the presidency. Now we're saying voters are hyper-rational beings who have logically evaluated the candidates and whose votes are carved in stone seven months before the GE?
Biden's lost plenty of presidential primaries as well. When the narrative changes, so too do voters.
Back in 2016 we were all claiming Cambridge Analytica/the media/Russians/Facebook/Comey handed Trump the presidency. Now we're saying voters are hyper-rational beings who have logically evaluated the candidates and whose votes are carved in stone seven months before the GE?
I think this is why Sanders desperately tries to keep himself separate from his policies. The idea that you could be a candidate running on "No one will like Trump because he's evil and I'm not" and expect to win is preposterous at this point. It's why I never understood why Klobuchar even ran. The second you make it about you as a person Trump can begin to suppress the vote by making you out to not be as great as you claim.
I think Sanders' whole deal is essentially "You're voting for my plans". I find that harder for Trump to attack, partially because Trump literally doesn't understand the concepts of Sanders' plans.
sanders did get his base out to vote, 30% of the primary popular vote might seem marginal to you, but it represents that he has a broad enough coalition within the Democratic party that wouldn't be a non-starter in the general (as opposed to a Klobuchar or Pete).
His populist agenda absolutely appeals to people who decide who they're gonna vote for after the tickets are decided. That's why he polls well with people whoaren't registered to either party. Or rather, Biden polls badly with people who aren't registered to either party.
This is a gamble, and I don't conclusively believe Biden is going to lose, but it's just weird seeing people making electability arguments about Bernie when Biden at this point, demonstratively doesn't do well with nonvoters and independents. You can rely on a Democrat surge to get him past the post in November, but you're going to have a tremendously difficult time to GOTV for him. Granted, if unemployment is 30%, it might not matter who's at the top of the democrat ticket.
Sanders isn't a rapist. He's the most viable candidate in the race right now.
Your boy Biden is going to be in a pretty tough spot after all this explodes...
I mean all the 1v1 against trump polls showed that he can beat trump so I don't see why you think he "ain't it"
With all the unemployed, underemployed, vulnerable, elderly, sick and hoping-not-to-be-sick people scared of taking time off and medical costs, their lives being weighed against the economy and found wanting by this administration, this sure as hell feels like Bernie's moment if there ever was one.
Ultimately though, if the Dems end up putting up a candidate nobody voted for, its a lost cause already.
If it's a battle between populists, Trump loses when it comes to Bernie. The only thing holding him back is voter suppression in the general election and primary-voters-who-support-his-policy-but-otherwise-don't-think-he-can-win holding him back from the nomination
Sanders literally DID NOT Make a coalition though, thats why no one endorsed him when they dropped out. Its why Biden is completely demolishing now. Sanders only hope of winning the Primary was a divided primary. Thats gone now and Biden is completely crushing him. I don't know why you can't seem to understand that.
a grassroots effort that's cross racial, cross religion, cross gender, cross age that secured 30% of the primary popular vote absolutely is a coalition. You don't have to like Bernie to realize his supporters make up a significant portion of the Democratic Party.
A grassroots effort that couldn't get out to vote.
This whole "We're a grassroots revolution" thing falls apart when you see that Sanders literally lost every single County in Michigan. (By the way, I voted for Sanders in Michigan.)
Because I have given up on any campaign that hinges on the youth vote turning out to the polls
I don't know how to tell you that at this very moment, Biden has 40% of the popular vote. Bernie has 30%.
just because he has less delegates doesn't mean people aren't voting for him. And just because enough democrats aren't voting for him in the primary to secure a delegate lead doesn't mean they are not a coalition of voters that Biden happens to not share.
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