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January 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, February 6th

donny2112

Member
Oct 27, 2017
620
ITT, predict for the NPD January 2018 retail period (December 31, 2017-February 3, 2018) for U.S. hardware sales.

What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined here, from jvm.
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but SalesEra followers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.
Why are there still predictions when official NPD numbers are not released?
Trust me said:
To have fun? To share thoughts and speculation with a like mined group of people? To be able to communicate directly with individuals who study this industry for a living?
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ethomaz said:
Since 2010 I guess we don't get official numbers anymore... that doesn't mean we don't get the numbers.

The ranking and results are based in real numbers.
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Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EST on Tuesday, February 13th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: December 31, 2017-February 3, 2018 (5 weeks, December was 5 weeks)
NPD Physical Release: Thursday, February 15th @ 4 p.m. EST (public thread with physical+digital posted 6 days later on February 21st ~6:30 p.m. EST)

Format:

[NSW]
[PS4]
[XB1]

Good/Bad Formatting
Code: 
Good              Bad
[XB1] 200K       [XB1] 200 thousand
[XB1] 200,000    [XB1] 200.000
[XB1] 200000     [XB1] - 200000


Potential hardware impacting events in January:
Annual post-December lull


Prediction Format: (repeating to emphasize to use this format)

[NSW]
[PS4]
[XB1]

December's results (public)
NSW: 1500k
XB1: 1365k
PS4: 1080k

December 2016 NPD thread
January 2017 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive

Note: Prediction thread for all of 2018 is over here and closes on February 2.
 
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Welfare

Welfare

Prophet of Truth - You’re my Numberwall
Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,914
[NSW] 343K
[PS4] 269K
[XB1] 219K
 
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Pokémon

Member
Oct 27, 2017
11,681
I have actually no idea what to predict, all I know is that hardware will be down significantly from December and Switch will most likely lead January since both SKUs are pretty high on Amazon (unfortunately I don't have more metrics as of right now).

[NSW] 220k
[PS4] 200k
[XB1] 150k
 
ZhugeEX

ZhugeEX

Senior Analyst at Niko Partners
Verified
Oct 24, 2017
3,099
Glad to see another year of NPD predictions. Best of luck to everyone. Looking forward to discussing some of the numbers and key trends for 2018.
 
Elandyll

Elandyll

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
8,818
Will be a tough one...

[NSW] 320k
[PS4] 260k
[XB1] 170k

I see the Switch comfortably ahead, but also the XB1 way down in spite of the X.

Atm on Amazon monthly (subject to change) we have

NS Neon # 13
NS Gray #17

PS4 #35
PS4 BF2 # 52
PS4 pro # 64

XB1 S #53
XB1 X # 73

Edit: the crazy thing being, I think the averge price of the PS4 in Jan 2018 has been higher than in 2017. I think the PS4 remained at $249 (retail price, not MSRP - with UC4 included) for a long time in early 2017, before switching to $269 in a lot of places.
 
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BlueManifest

BlueManifest

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
15,329
If amazon is accurate like it has been before in the past switch will be on top this month

I'll go with
[NSW] 250k
[PS4] 200k
[XB1] 130k
 
cakely

cakely

Member
Oct 27, 2017
13,149
Chicago
I ... really have no idea. Clearly MWH is selling bananas, but will that boost NPD sales above the Switch?
 
Hindle

Hindle

Banned
Oct 29, 2017
1,449
I will use this month to reevaluate my end of year predictions. I am very confident the Switch takes the year, selling 7m. Its the X1 and PS4 in which I keep swapping. I think the PS4 will sell 4.2m and the X1 4.25m for the year.

Based off how both consoles are in thier twilight years, 5th on the market, and the Switch is going to be a monster.
 
Elandyll

Elandyll

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
8,818
Hindle said:
I will use this month to reevaluate my end of year predictions. I am very confident the Switch takes the year, selling 7m. Its the X1 and PS4 in which I keep swapping. I think the PS4 will sell 4.2m and the X1 4.25m for the year.

Based off how both consoles are in thier twilight years, 5th on the market, and the Switch is going to be a monster.
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Just out of curiosity, how do you see the XB1 fam overtaking the PS4 fam this year?
 
MrTired

MrTired

Member
Oct 28, 2017
3,230
Oh Welfare, first of his name, keeper of sales wall number and brother of poor bet makers (Chobel). Can we have your numbers please?
 
Hindle

Hindle

Banned
Oct 29, 2017
1,449
Elandyll said:
Just out of curiosity, how do you see the XB1 fam overtaking the PS4 fam this year?
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I see this year as the last real hurrah for the console. Its my theory that MS launch a next gen console next year. And with a strong exclusive line up, PUBG, and I am going to say a price cut of some kind for the X1X, this is Microsoft real chance to take the year.

But ultimately, it comes down to who wants it more. If Sony offer the best deals, they will take the year, like they did in November. If MS go all in, 2018 is thiers, as we saw in December.
 
cakely

cakely

Member
Oct 27, 2017
13,149
Chicago
Hindle said:
I will use this month to reevaluate my end of year predictions. I am very confident the Switch takes the year, selling 7m. Its the X1 and PS4 in which I keep swapping. I think the PS4 will sell 4.2m and the X1 4.25m for the year.

Based off how both consoles are in thier twilight years, 5th on the market, and the Switch is going to be a monster.
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You feel that the Xbox One will outsell the PlayStation 4 in 2018, despite being down YoY in 2017? That's a pretty big reversal. What do you think will account for that? I have a feeling you're going to say "PUBG".

EDIT: I just read your response. You feel that the Xbox One will reverse it's sales decline because "it wants it more". Ok.
 
Wandu

Wandu

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,163
[NSW] 290k
[PS4] 255k
[XB1] 180k

EDIT: Updated my prediction after seeing Welfare's wall of text

EDIT2: Thanks Zedark and donny2112 for the update notification.
 
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Deleted member 4976

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
13,246
[NSW] 300k
[PS4] 195k
[XB1] 150k

Edit: Updated my predictions for the new cutoff, thanks for the notification Zedark.
 
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Saint-14

Saint-14

Banned
Nov 2, 2017
14,477
So 2 days of tracking for MHW, how much can it realistically do? Previous entries sales are also appreciated if someone have them.
 
Kill3r7

Kill3r7

Member
Oct 25, 2017
24,430
Saint-14 said:
So 2 days of tracking for MHW, how much can it realistically do? Previous entries sales are also appreciated if someone have them.
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Hard to tell. According to ZhugeEX post it seems like it sold slightly less than RE7 in the UK but digital purchase behavior has changed significantly over the last year. So it could put them on equal footing. The 5 million shipped number would indicate a much stronger performance than RE7.
 
Zedark

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
[NSW] 370k
[PS4] 265k
[XB1] 165k
Phendrift said:
You guys are really predicting a switch win in MHW month?
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Monster Hunter World isn't going to make the PS4 go berserk, Switch beat PS4 when Destiny 2 released, so no reason to expect MHW to be a much bigger driver of hardware imo.

Edit: Edited my numbers to reflect the 5 week January month.
 
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Saint-14

Saint-14

Banned
Nov 2, 2017
14,477
Kill3r7 said:
Hard to tell. According to ZhugeEX post it seems like it sold slightly less than RE7 in the UK but digital purchase behavior has changed significantly over the last year. So it could put them on equal footing. The 5 million shipped number would indicate a much stronger performance than RE7.
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Yeah, it has double the shipment of RE7, it should definitely open better, performance in the second month should be good as well.
 
Imad issa

Imad issa

Banned
Nov 8, 2017
558
Zedark said:
[NSW] 270k
[PS4] 200k
[XB1] 130k

Monster Hunter World isn't going to make the PS4 go berserk, Switch beat PS4 when Destiny 2 released, so no reason to expect MHW to be a much bigger driver of hardware imo.
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September switch was finally in stock, so it should have had a nice boost from pent up demand, January will be very interesting . I heard this January will be a 5 week Month for NPD is this true?

NSW] 270k
[PS4] 275k
[XB1] 200k
 
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