January 2019 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, February 12th

donny2112

Member
Oct 27, 2017
343
ITT, predict for the NPD January 2019 retail period (January 5-February 2, 2019) for U.S. hardware sales.

What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined by the National Retail Federation (find calendar links here).
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but SalesEra followers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.
Why are there still predictions when official NPD numbers are not released?
Trust me said:
To have fun? To share thoughts and speculation with a like mined group of people? To be able to communicate directly with individuals who study this industry for a living?
ethomaz said:
Since 2010 I guess we don't get official numbers anymore... that doesn't mean we don't get the numbers.

The ranking and results are based in real numbers.
Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EST on Tuesday, February 12. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: January 5-February 2, 2019 (4 weeks, December was 5 weeks)
NPD Physical Results Release: [strike]Thursday, February 14[/strike] Tuesday, February 19 @ 4 p.m. EST (public thread with physical+digital posted on February 19th ~6:30 p.m. EST)

Format:

[NSW]
[PS4]
[XB1]

Good/Bad Formatting
Code:
Good              Bad
[XB1] 200K      [XB1] 200 thousand
[XB1] 200,000   [XB1] 200.000
[XB1] 200000    [XB1] - 200000

Potential hardware impacting events in January:
Usual January/post-Christmas lull before February surge

Prediction Format: (repeating to emphasize to use this format)

[NSW]
[PS4]
[XB1]

December's Resuts
Switch: 1.77M
XB1: 920K
PS4: 797K
December 2017 NPD thread
January 2018 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive
 
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Bitch Pudding

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,230
Thanks donny2112 for providing another round of mayhem!

May I ask if there will be a 2019e / total year estimate thread, too?

[NSW] 230K
[PS4] 160K
[XB1] 135K
 
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Mare

Alt account
Banned
Jan 28, 2019
36
[NSW] 270K
[PS4] 165K
[XB1] 130K

Tho is less weeks, with Mario and Smash momentum I think Switch will be stable from last year
 

julian

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,800
[NSW] 215K
[PS4] 135K
[XB1] 105K

I have absolutely no idea, but I’ll actually try and take a stab at it this year.
 
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pswii60

Member
Oct 27, 2017
9,252
UK
I remember Benji saying that XBO was looking low in January, so I suspect there will be a hangover now the holiday deals have finished. PS4 will be steady and I expect Switch to be strong again with the Smash effect.

[NSW] 305k
[PS4] 210k
[XBO] 140k
 
Oct 25, 2017
11,258
That $50 Xbox deal applies to January, right? Or did it start late enough in January that it would basically apply to February?
 

lost7

Member
Feb 20, 2018
261
Seeing the crazy numbers Apex Legends is pulling, do we think the game could have a similar effect to what Fortnite did last year and actually sell many consoles or it is mostly selling to the same crowd who already owns PS4/Xbox?
 

slavesnyder

Member
Oct 26, 2017
823
SlaveSnyder Media Corp.
Seeing the crazy numbers Apex Legends is pulling, do we think the game could have a similar effect to what Fortnite did last year and actually sell many consoles or it is mostly selling to the same crowd who already owns PS4/Xbox?
the system sellers' ship has sailed. there will be an uptick, but i guess the only thing that would really move units will be a hardware revision and/or a price drop.
 

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,327
I'd have too look at how last year was but switch was strong start of the month and ps4 was moving decently through most.

Xbox was just kinda there. I wouldn't expect any crazy high numbers for ps4 or xbox.
Yeah I was guessing so. Hardware will be boring this year for PS4/X1 but at least software should be really interesting (Q1 and Q4 should be really strong).

End of gen are usually boring but with the Switch releasing mid-gen there is always going to be at least one system in its strong years. Great for us :)