January 2019 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, February 12th

Oct 27, 2017
278
#1
ITT, predict for the NPD January 2019 retail period (January 5-February 2, 2019) for U.S. hardware sales.

What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined by the National Retail Federation (find calendar links here).
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but SalesEra followers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.
Why are there still predictions when official NPD numbers are not released?
Trust me said:
To have fun? To share thoughts and speculation with a like mined group of people? To be able to communicate directly with individuals who study this industry for a living?
ethomaz said:
Since 2010 I guess we don't get official numbers anymore... that doesn't mean we don't get the numbers.

The ranking and results are based in real numbers.
Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EST on Tuesday, February 12. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: January 5-February 2, 2019 (4 weeks, December was 5 weeks)
NPD Physical Results Release: [strike]Thursday, February 14[/strike] Tuesday, February 19 @ 4 p.m. EST (public thread with physical+digital posted on February 19th ~6:30 p.m. EST)

Format:

[NSW]
[PS4]
[XB1]

Good/Bad Formatting
Code:
Good              Bad
[XB1] 200K      [XB1] 200 thousand
[XB1] 200,000   [XB1] 200.000
[XB1] 200000    [XB1] - 200000

Potential hardware impacting events in January:
Usual January/post-Christmas lull before February surge

Prediction Format: (repeating to emphasize to use this format)

[NSW]
[PS4]
[XB1]

December's Resuts
Switch: 1.77M
XB1: 920K
PS4: 797K
December 2017 NPD thread
January 2018 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive
 
Last edited:
Oct 25, 2017
1,849
#15
Thanks donny2112 for providing another round of mayhem!

May I ask if there will be a 2019e / total year estimate thread, too?

[NSW] 230K
[PS4] 160K
[XB1] 135K
 
Last edited:

Mare

Member
Jan 28, 2019
34
#19
[NSW] 270K
[PS4] 165K
[XB1] 130K

Tho is less weeks, with Mario and Smash momentum I think Switch will be stable from last year
 
Oct 27, 2017
3,692
#21
[NSW] 215K
[PS4] 135K
[XB1] 105K

I have absolutely no idea, but I’ll actually try and take a stab at it this year.
 
Last edited:
Oct 26, 2017
1,299
#23
Hello! This wall of numbers will be comparing the weekly average of December to January. This is where comparing weekly averages is better than simple month to month because December is a 5 week month while January is only 4 (except for the odd time where it is 5 weeks such as 2013 and 2018). I have gathered high selling software and any hardware deals for January to help show how the month might be impacted. You can go to previous prediction threads for the previous month's potential impacts.

Usually I drop a year every year but I’ll keep 2012 for now as 2019 is expected to be the generation equivalent, the year before PS5 and Scarlett.

Note: The year indicates January, so 2012 is comparing December 2011 and January 2012 and so on.

Code:
2012

Xbox 360 December: 1.73M / 5 = 346,000
Xbox 360 January: 270K / 4 = 67,500

Weekly average -80%

PS3 December: 950K / 5 = 190,000
PS3 January: 195K / 4 = 48,750

Weekly average -74%

3DS December: 1.606M / 5 = 321,200
3DS January: 175K / 4 = 43,750

Weekly average -86%
Code:
2013

Xbox 360 December: 1.4M / 5 = 280,000
Xbox 360 January: 281K / 5 = 56,200

Weekly average -80%

PS3 December: 635K / 5 = 127,000
PS3 January: 201K / 5 = 40,200

Weekly average -68%

3DS December: 1.25M / 5 = 250,000
3DS January: 145K / 5 = 29,000

Weekly average -88%

Notable Events in January

One additional tracking week
Code:
2014

Xbox One December: 908K / 5 = 181,600
Xbox One January: 143K / 4 = 35,750

Weekly average -80%

PS4 December: 863K / 5 = 172,600
PS4 January: 271K / 4 = 67,750

Weekly average -61%

3DS December: 1.06M / 5 = 212,000
3DS January: 97K / 4 = 24,250

Weekly average -89%

Xbox 360 December: 643K / 5 = 128,600
Xbox 360 January: 48K / 4 = 12,000

Weekly average -91%

PS3 December: 299K / 5 = 59,800
PS3 January: 54K / 4 = 13,500

Weekly average -77%

Notable Events in January

PS4
Supply constrained, Demand > Supply
Code:
2015

Xbox One December: 1.297M / 5 = 259,400
Xbox One January: 150K / 4 = 37,500

Weekly average -86%

PS4 December: 1.065M / 5 = 213,000
PS4 January: 189K / 4 = 47,250

Weekly average -78%

3DS December: 810K / 5 = 162,000
3DS January: 74K / 4 = 18,500

Weekly average -89%

Notable Events in January

Xbox One
Price raise $50 ($399) January 4th (12 days)

Price drop $50 ($349) January 16th (16 days)
Code:
2016

Xbox One December: 1.376M / 5 = 275,200
Xbox One January: 131K / 4 = 32,750

Weekly average -88%

PS4 December: 1.582M / 5 = 316,400
PS4 January: 229K / 4 = 57,250

Weekly average -82%

3DS December: 581K / 5 = 116,200
3DS January: 70K / 4 = 17,500

Weekly average -85%

Notable Events in January

PS4
First January after price drop ($349)
Code:
2017

Xbox One December: 1.511M / 5 = 302,200
Xbox One January: 158K / 4 = 39,500

Weekly average -87%

PS4 December: 1.568M / 5 = 313,600
PS4 January: 211K / 4 = 52,750

Weekly average -83%

Notable Events in January

Xbox One
Resident Evil 7 [1 week]

PS4
Price raise $50 ($299) January 1st
First January for PS4 Pro

Resident Evil 7 [1 week]
Code:
2018

Switch December: 1.5M / 5 = 300,000
Switch January: 275K / 5 = 55,000

Weekly average -82%

Xbox One December: 1.35M / 5 = 270,000
Xbox One January: 235K / 5 = 47,000

Weekly average -83%

PS4 December: 1.05M / 5 = 210,000
PS4 January: 254K / 5 = 50,800

Weekly average -76%

Notable Events in January

One additional tracking week

Switch
First January after Holidays

Xbox One
Fortnite effect (This will be here for a few months)

One final week at Christmas pricing (ended on the 6th I believe) [1 week]
Xbox One S 1TB bundles stay at $299
Xbox One S 500GB now $279

Monster Hunter: World [1 week] 
DRAGON BALL FighterZ [1 week] 

PS4
Fortnite effect (This will be here for a few months)

GameStop Only: Monster Hunter: World PS4 Pro 1TB Limited Bundle $449 [1 week] 
GameStop Only: PS4 Pro Glacier White 1TB Bundle $399 [1 week] 
GameStop Only: Trade in PS4/XB1/NSW and get up to $350 towards PS4 Pro. Offer valid 1/26/18 - 2/11/18 
[2 days in January NPD / 15 days in February NPD]

Monster Hunter: World [1 week] 
DRAGON BALL FighterZ [1 week]
Code:
2018 December Weekly Averages

Switch: 1.77M / 5 = 354,000
Xbox One: 920K / 5 = 184,000
PS4: 797K / 5 = 159,400

Notable Events in January

Switch
New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe [4 weeks]

Xbox One
Xbox One X $449 / Xbox One S $249 January 27 - February 2 [1 week]

Kingdom Hearts 3 [1 week] 
Resident Evil 2 [2 weeks] 
Ace Combat 7 Skies Unknown [3 weeks] 

PS4
GameStop Only: PS4 Pro Kingdom Hearts 3 1TB Limited Bundle $399 [1 week] 

Kingdom Hearts 3 [1 week] 
Resident Evil 2 [2 weeks] 
Ace Combat 7 Skies Unknown [3 weeks]
Notes
Very slow month after the holiday shopping season. Sales have become more centered around December and February at this time of year.

Xbox
In recent years, the Xbox family have concentrated the majority of their sales to the holidays resulting in sharp drops in January compared to PlayStation.

January 2014 was what happens when you have a $499 console and had plenty of stock available for the holidays. January 2015 had Microsoft trying to raise the price back up to $399 after an amazing holiday at $349 for about 2 weeks, and then they dropped the price back to $349. January 2016 then had a massive drop thanks to raising the price back up to $349 after a holiday at $299 and was now at price parity with the PS4, which had its first January at a reduced price of $349. 2017 had a slightly better drop than 2016 but was still pretty low. 2018 saw the One S keep its holiday price promotions for about a week in January and a price reduction, the One X proved to be a boost in sales, and Fortnite was starting to be a console mover.

2019 is an interesting year for sure. December 2018 showed that the selling power of XB1 and PS4 is starting to decline. This January in particular has plenty of great software launches but their selling power so late into the generation isn’t much, especially for Xbox. The $50 off deal may be indicative of slow sales from the rest of the month.

The Xbox One has so far averaged a drop of -85%, with a minimum of -80% (2014) and a maximum of -88% (2016).

Playstation
PlayStation sees better holds in January compared to Xbox.

PS4 has a pretty clear outlier in 2014 as there were stock shortages for holiday 2013 and early 2014. A drop of -61% is much smaller than the average ~80% drop that every other console usually gets, as seen when PS4 had more reasonable drops in every year post 2014.

This January is coming off a December that had no deals. This will be an interesting comparison. There is also the launch of Kingdom Hearts 3 in particular, a massive PlayStation franchise. GameStop had a limited PS4 Pro bundle, but not much else to move consoles like in 2018.

The PS4 has so far averaged a drop of -80%, with a minimum of -76% (2018) and a maximum of -83% (2017). This excludes the 2014 drop.

Nintendo
The 3DS averaged a drop of -87%, with a minimum of -85% (2016) and a maximum of -89% (2015). The 3DS was pretty consistent in December to January performance.

Switch is coming off a record setting December this generation that had no significant price changes and the launch of Smash. Legs of Smash, Pokemon, and the launch of New Super Mario Bros. will be holding up Switch pretty well through January.

Recap
January is a slow month after the holiday season and consumers waiting for tax returns in February.

The biggest January ever recorded back in the 7th was the Wii with 679,200 back in 2009. Second biggest? Wii again with 465,800 in 2010.

The biggest January ever recorded in the 8th is the Switch with 275,000 in 2018. Second biggest? PS4 with 271,000 in 2014.
 
Oct 27, 2017
7,646
UK
#27
I remember Benji saying that XBO was looking low in January, so I suspect there will be a hangover now the holiday deals have finished. PS4 will be steady and I expect Switch to be strong again with the Smash effect.

[NSW] 305k
[PS4] 210k
[XBO] 140k
 
Oct 25, 2017
6,757
The Netherlands
#34
I remember Benji saying that XBO was looking low in January, so I suspect there will be a hangover now the holiday deals have finished. PS4 will be steady and I expect Switch to be strong again with the Smash effect.

[NSW] 305k
[PS4] 210k
[XBO] 140k
That's incredibly strong for Switch: almost a 40% increase in weekly average.
 
Feb 20, 2018
231
#41
Seeing the crazy numbers Apex Legends is pulling, do we think the game could have a similar effect to what Fortnite did last year and actually sell many consoles or it is mostly selling to the same crowd who already owns PS4/Xbox?
 
#45
Seeing the crazy numbers Apex Legends is pulling, do we think the game could have a similar effect to what Fortnite did last year and actually sell many consoles or it is mostly selling to the same crowd who already owns PS4/Xbox?
the system sellers' ship has sailed. there will be an uptick, but i guess the only thing that would really move units will be a hardware revision and/or a price drop.
 
Oct 25, 2017
6,683
#47
I'd have too look at how last year was but switch was strong start of the month and ps4 was moving decently through most.

Xbox was just kinda there. I wouldn't expect any crazy high numbers for ps4 or xbox.
Yeah I was guessing so. Hardware will be boring this year for PS4/X1 but at least software should be really interesting (Q1 and Q4 should be really strong).

End of gen are usually boring but with the Switch releasing mid-gen there is always going to be at least one system in its strong years. Great for us :)