Hello! This wall of numbers will be comparing the weekly average of December to January. This is where comparing weekly averages is better than simple month to month because December is a 5 week month while January is only 4 (except for the odd time where it is 5 weeks such as 2013 and 2018). I have gathered high selling software and any hardware deals for January to help show how the month might be impacted. You can go to previous prediction threads for the previous month's potential impacts.
Usually I drop a year every year but I’ll keep 2012 for now as 2019 is expected to be the generation equivalent, the year before PS5 and Scarlett.
Note: The year indicates January, so 2012 is comparing December 2011 and January 2012 and so on.
Code:
2012
Xbox 360 December: 1.73M / 5 = 346,000
Xbox 360 January: 270K / 4 = 67,500
Weekly average -80%
PS3 December: 950K / 5 = 190,000
PS3 January: 195K / 4 = 48,750
Weekly average -74%
3DS December: 1.606M / 5 = 321,200
3DS January: 175K / 4 = 43,750
Weekly average -86%
Code:
2013
Xbox 360 December: 1.4M / 5 = 280,000
Xbox 360 January: 281K / 5 = 56,200
Weekly average -80%
PS3 December: 635K / 5 = 127,000
PS3 January: 201K / 5 = 40,200
Weekly average -68%
3DS December: 1.25M / 5 = 250,000
3DS January: 145K / 5 = 29,000
Weekly average -88%
Notable Events in January
One additional tracking week
Code:
2014
Xbox One December: 908K / 5 = 181,600
Xbox One January: 143K / 4 = 35,750
Weekly average -80%
PS4 December: 863K / 5 = 172,600
PS4 January: 271K / 4 = 67,750
Weekly average -61%
3DS December: 1.06M / 5 = 212,000
3DS January: 97K / 4 = 24,250
Weekly average -89%
Xbox 360 December: 643K / 5 = 128,600
Xbox 360 January: 48K / 4 = 12,000
Weekly average -91%
PS3 December: 299K / 5 = 59,800
PS3 January: 54K / 4 = 13,500
Weekly average -77%
Notable Events in January
PS4
Supply constrained, Demand > Supply
Code:
2015
Xbox One December: 1.297M / 5 = 259,400
Xbox One January: 150K / 4 = 37,500
Weekly average -86%
PS4 December: 1.065M / 5 = 213,000
PS4 January: 189K / 4 = 47,250
Weekly average -78%
3DS December: 810K / 5 = 162,000
3DS January: 74K / 4 = 18,500
Weekly average -89%
Notable Events in January
Xbox One
Price raise $50 ($399) January 4th (12 days)
Price drop $50 ($349) January 16th (16 days)
Code:
2016
Xbox One December: 1.376M / 5 = 275,200
Xbox One January: 131K / 4 = 32,750
Weekly average -88%
PS4 December: 1.582M / 5 = 316,400
PS4 January: 229K / 4 = 57,250
Weekly average -82%
3DS December: 581K / 5 = 116,200
3DS January: 70K / 4 = 17,500
Weekly average -85%
Notable Events in January
PS4
First January after price drop ($349)
Code:
2017
Xbox One December: 1.511M / 5 = 302,200
Xbox One January: 158K / 4 = 39,500
Weekly average -87%
PS4 December: 1.568M / 5 = 313,600
PS4 January: 211K / 4 = 52,750
Weekly average -83%
Notable Events in January
Xbox One
Resident Evil 7 [1 week]
PS4
Price raise $50 ($299) January 1st
First January for PS4 Pro
Resident Evil 7 [1 week]
Code:
2018
Switch December: 1.5M / 5 = 300,000
Switch January: 275K / 5 = 55,000
Weekly average -82%
Xbox One December: 1.35M / 5 = 270,000
Xbox One January: 235K / 5 = 47,000
Weekly average -83%
PS4 December: 1.05M / 5 = 210,000
PS4 January: 254K / 5 = 50,800
Weekly average -76%
Notable Events in January
One additional tracking week
Switch
First January after Holidays
Xbox One
Fortnite effect (This will be here for a few months)
One final week at Christmas pricing (ended on the 6th I believe) [1 week]
Xbox One S 1TB bundles stay at $299
Xbox One S 500GB now $279
Monster Hunter: World [1 week]
DRAGON BALL FighterZ [1 week]
PS4
Fortnite effect (This will be here for a few months)
GameStop Only: Monster Hunter: World PS4 Pro 1TB Limited Bundle $449 [1 week]
GameStop Only: PS4 Pro Glacier White 1TB Bundle $399 [1 week]
GameStop Only: Trade in PS4/XB1/NSW and get up to $350 towards PS4 Pro. Offer valid 1/26/18 - 2/11/18
[2 days in January NPD / 15 days in February NPD]
Monster Hunter: World [1 week]
DRAGON BALL FighterZ [1 week]
Code:
2018 December Weekly Averages
Switch: 1.77M / 5 = 354,000
Xbox One: 920K / 5 = 184,000
PS4: 797K / 5 = 159,400
Notable Events in January
Switch
New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe [4 weeks]
Xbox One
Xbox One X $449 / Xbox One S $249 January 27 - February 2 [1 week]
Kingdom Hearts 3 [1 week]
Resident Evil 2 [2 weeks]
Ace Combat 7 Skies Unknown [3 weeks]
PS4
GameStop Only: PS4 Pro Kingdom Hearts 3 1TB Limited Bundle $399 [1 week]
Kingdom Hearts 3 [1 week]
Resident Evil 2 [2 weeks]
Ace Combat 7 Skies Unknown [3 weeks]
Notes
Very slow month after the holiday shopping season. Sales have become more centered around December and February at this time of year.
Xbox
In recent years, the Xbox family have concentrated the majority of their sales to the holidays resulting in sharp drops in January compared to PlayStation.
January 2014 was what happens when you have a $499 console and had plenty of stock available for the holidays. January 2015 had Microsoft trying to raise the price back up to $399 after an amazing holiday at $349 for about 2 weeks, and then they dropped the price back to $349. January 2016 then had a massive drop thanks to raising the price back up to $349 after a holiday at $299 and was now at price parity with the PS4, which had its first January at a reduced price of $349. 2017 had a slightly better drop than 2016 but was still pretty low. 2018 saw the One S keep its holiday price promotions for about a week in January and a price reduction, the One X proved to be a boost in sales, and Fortnite was starting to be a console mover.
2019 is an interesting year for sure. December 2018 showed that the selling power of XB1 and PS4 is starting to decline. This January in particular has plenty of great software launches but their selling power so late into the generation isn’t much, especially for Xbox. The $50 off deal may be indicative of slow sales from the rest of the month.
The Xbox One has so far averaged a drop of -85%, with a minimum of -80% (2014) and a maximum of -88% (2016).
Playstation
PlayStation sees better holds in January compared to Xbox.
PS4 has a pretty clear outlier in 2014 as there were stock shortages for holiday 2013 and early 2014. A drop of -61% is much smaller than the average ~80% drop that every other console usually gets, as seen when PS4 had more reasonable drops in every year post 2014.
This January is coming off a December that had no deals. This will be an interesting comparison. There is also the launch of Kingdom Hearts 3 in particular, a massive PlayStation franchise. GameStop had a limited PS4 Pro bundle, but not much else to move consoles like in 2018.
The PS4 has so far averaged a drop of -80%, with a minimum of -76% (2018) and a maximum of -83% (2017). This excludes the 2014 drop.
Nintendo
The 3DS averaged a drop of -87%, with a minimum of -85% (2016) and a maximum of -89% (2015). The 3DS was pretty consistent in December to January performance.
Switch is coming off a record setting December this generation that had no significant price changes and the launch of Smash. Legs of Smash, Pokemon, and the launch of New Super Mario Bros. will be holding up Switch pretty well through January.
Recap
January is a slow month after the holiday season and consumers waiting for tax returns in February.
The biggest January ever recorded back in the 7th was the Wii with 679,200 back in 2009. Second biggest? Wii again with 465,800 in 2010.
The biggest January ever recorded in the 8th is the Switch with 275,000 in 2018. Second biggest? PS4 with 271,000 in 2014.
