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m051293

Member
Oct 29, 2017
1,658
Switch up almost 30% in the weeklies! In Japan its up like 45% for the year so far YoY so strong sign. If shipped figures stay in line, its going to be hovering right around 4.0M global for FY18 Q4.

Man SalesEra was indeed very quiet this month, heh. Very strong performance for Switch but I am a little bit worried that it might lose a bit of steam in February considering there is not much going on software wise. Maybe Smash + NSMBUDX will keep the momentum alive till the end of March.

NSW does have a price promotion in the 2nd half of the month ($35.00 eShop Credit in limited supply), so that can't hurt.
 

Barsi

alt account
Banned
Jan 21, 2019
350
It really shouldn't be a controversial statement to say that current gen performance does not dictate next gen performance. We've seen plenty of evidence against that notion.
Yes we have . This gen and last one only. By mistakes. And ps3 sold more in the end launching one year later... It can only be a failed compared to ps2.

But nes-snes
ps1-ps2 was a pattern.

Without mistakes with games Sony will dominate Worldwide again, Anything different from that is only wishfull thinking.
 

VX1

Member
Oct 28, 2017
7,000
Europe
It really shouldn't be a controversial statement to say that current gen performance does not dictate next gen performance. We've seen plenty of evidence against that notion.

True,but things are a bit different now,with explosion of digital and ecosystem lock in.
And yeah,things might be different next gen in US/UK but here in continental Europe and Asia i'm sure nothing will change.
 

Benji

Self Requested Ban
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
8,114
So.....yeah

Switch 2019 is gonna be something else. Especially the 2nd half
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
So.....yeah

Switch 2019 is gonna be something else. Especially the 2nd half
Is February doing well for Switch, too? It would make sense, what with the price promotion they announced.

Also, I was wondering about NSMBUDX: are you seeing the game slow down after the Super Mario Maker 2 announcement, or dors it seem to be unfazed so far?
 

Benji

Self Requested Ban
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
8,114
Highest January this gen correct? For Switch I mean? PS4 I don't recall going that high
 

Toni

Banned
Nov 13, 2017
1,983
Orlando, Florida
It had KH III and RE 2 actually, but yeah, I don't think these games means much for hardware sales this late in their lifecycles. Unless they were responsible for PS4 not be down YoY.
Days Gone is in April now (April 26th).
Except for KH3 and RE2?
No games? with KH3 and RE2 releasing? ;P
hu?. it had re2 and kh3
It had two big releases.
3L2TTRD.gif



Jesus christ y'all.

My poor notification icon.

My honest mistake though. Completely forgot kingdom hearts was January. Still, 5k away from 200k in January is pretty stellar all things considered.
 

Kodama4

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,933
Holy shit at that stellar PS4 performance.

It had no Price cuts or promotions or game releases in january. Expected it to be much lower than that.

February should be much better for PS4 with tax refund season and Days Gone.

Unfortunately your post is very wrong, perhaps you should check your info beforehand
 

Mercenary09

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
2,395
And people really wonder why the worldwide numbers for Xbox One have barely gone up every year. This is why. I'm not sure they'll hit 50 million lifetime if they are barely selling 100K in a month in their strongest market. While the PS4 is going to be down on the year it's still quite impressive how well it is selling despite no price drops, bundles, or major game releases.
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
Yes we have . This gen and last one only. By mistakes. And ps3 sold more in the end launching one year later... It can only be a failed compared to ps2.

But nes-snes
ps1-ps2 was a pattern.

Without mistakes with games Sony will dominate Worldwide again, Anything different from that is only wishfull thinking.
Nes-snes was actually a drop-off in sales, so I don't think it's the best example of gen-on-gen increase in dominance. PS2 is undeniable, but a single example is not enough to claim a pattern, of course. Then there's the factor that the market often is not zero-sum: a system like Switch, for example, can enter the market and blow up in sales without impacting sales of the other systems. By the same token, XB2 can do really well without PS5 having to necessarily do badly. Especially when talking about the US market, of course, where XBOX is strong still (and, incidentally, which this thread is about).
 

Benji

Self Requested Ban
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
8,114
Is February doing well for Switch, too? It would make sense, what with the price promotion they announced.

Also, I was wondering about NSMBUDX: are you seeing the game slow down after the Super Mario Maker 2 announcement, or dors it seem to be unfazed so far?

New SMB Deluxe is your next Nintendo Evergreen

Should outsell the Wii U version significantly lifetime
 

Deader2818

Member
Oct 25, 2017
714
New Jersey
Yeah pretty much what i expected. Switch started off strong in Jan with post holiday giftcard season and tailed off at the end while PS4 started very slow but picked up near the end.

Feb might be closer between the 2 from what i've seen.
 

m051293

Member
Oct 29, 2017
1,658
Highest January this gen correct? For Switch I mean? PS4 I don't recall going that high

Yup.

Recap
January is a slow month after the holiday season and consumers waiting for tax returns in February.

The biggest January ever recorded back in the 7th was the Wii with 679,200 back in 2009. Second biggest? Wii again with 465,800 in 2010.

The biggest January ever recorded in the 8th is the Switch with 275,000 in 2018. Second biggest? PS4 with 271,000 in 2014.

Sign of things to come for many of the next 11 months I think (for this gen at least).
 

Benji

Self Requested Ban
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
8,114
You phony, go back to the depths where you belong.

kidding we miss you, come back

I'm still here / sticking around

During the slow times though I'm going to purposely not post my impressions for the month until prediction time is over. I was influencing predictions too much and making results too similar

So sorry ya'll. Just gonna have to wait for my info drops
 

Andromeda

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,844
I'm still here / sticking around

During the slow times though I'm going to purposely not post my impressions for the month until prediction time is over. I was influencing predictions too much and making results too similar

So sorry ya'll. Just gonna have to wait for my info drops
You can give us just vague impressions I think (when like you stated in the beginning of the month that Switch sold the most the first week). As long as you don't predict precise numbers I think you're going to be fine.

We really appreciate your contribution and your impressions !
 

Adventureracing

The Fallen
Nov 7, 2017
8,027
Great sales for the switch and good for PS4 as well. Kinda wonder if we're in for a few slow months ahead. Switch has nothing really big releasing till June, Xbone is already struggling and the PS4 whilst performing fantastic for this point of its lifespan will surely continue to be down YoY.

Second half of the year I'm expecting massive switch sales though, so much SW coming in such a short time.
 

Elandyll

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
8,806
Great month for both Switch and PS4, in regard to where they are in their respective life cycles.

Xbox cratered, specially given ongoing promotions.
 

Benji

Self Requested Ban
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
8,114
Speaking of evergreens, pokemon lets go seem to really drop off recently. Compared to other Nintendo titles anyways.

Agreed. Let's Go legs are disappointing to me (by Nintendo 1st party standards)


Any early commentary on Apex Legends? Does it look like it might replicate the "Fortnite-effect" from last year?

Nah Apex is not having a similar effect that Fortnite did. We are so very late in the generation though that not a lot is going to be able to seriously push hardware.

Kingdom Hearts 3 and RE2 were both huge games for example and Xbox and PS4 are still down YoY. That will be the case most of the year

Switch will be the only platform to have YoY growth for 2019
 

Daedardus

Member
Oct 25, 2017
926
Do wonder if Nintendo will reach the 17 million target now. Also not a lot of hardware moving software coming up in the next four months, so I guess it'll be rather a tepid couple of months for them. The heat should get on in June though, so we'll find out how crazy things can get later this year.

I'm still here / sticking around

During the slow times though I'm going to purposely not post my impressions for the month until prediction time is over. I was influencing predictions too much and making results too similar

So sorry ya'll. Just gonna have to wait for my info drops

Glad you're still around though, hope you're feeling well! Nobody deserves to be shat on for just some number crunching and it's always fun to be here and speculate.
 

Skittzo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
41,037
Do wonder if Nintendo will reach the 17 million target now. Also not a lot of hardware moving software coming up in the next four months, so I guess it'll be rather a tepid couple of months for them. The heat should get on in June though, so we'll find out how crazy things can get later this year.

They should hit 17M with ease. It depends on whether or not they overshipped Q3 but we haven't seen any indications of this so far. They're 30% up YOY on a weekly basis in the US and 45% in Japan, and hit 3M last Q4. All they need is ~2.5M this Q4 to hit 17M.
 

m051293

Member
Oct 29, 2017
1,658
Agreed. Let's Go legs are disappointing to me (by Nintendo 1st party standards)




Nah Apex is not having a similar effect that Fortnite did. We are so very late in the generation though that not a lot is going to be able to seriously push hardware.

Kingdom Hearts 3 and RE2 were both huge games for example and Xbox and PS4 are still down YoY. That will be the case most of the year

Switch will be the only platform to have YoY growth for 2019

Yeah I figured, but was curious given the crazy impressive adoption figures ZhugeEX posted last week.

I think biggest noticeable HW drivers for PS4/XBO this year will be either competitive pricing deals on the Pro consoles (we saw how impressive XBX looked on BF @$399.99) or software titles that really push current owners to upgrade to the Pro consoles - something like TLOUII is a prime candidate (RDR2 was it for me in 2018). Or of course a solid combination of both.
 

Benji

Self Requested Ban
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
8,114
Wouldn't anthem numbers be incredibly skewed to digital anyways.

Yes and that's precisely why I havent talked much about Anthem. Digital share will be massive so hard to really tell

Glad you're still around though, hope you're feeling well! Nobody deserves to be shat on for just some number crunching and it's always fun to be here and speculate.


I'm doing great thanks for asking!

Honestly the love I got on Era and Twitter after I said I was going to retire blew me away. Way more people cared about what I do in a positive way that I ever thought

Gave me much better perspective
 

Daedardus

Member
Oct 25, 2017
926
They should hit 17M with ease. It depends on whether or not they overshipped Q3 but we haven't seen any indications of this so far. They're 30% up YOY on a weekly basis in the US and 45% in Japan, and hit 3M last Q4. All they need is ~2.5M this Q4 to hit 17M.

17 million sounds doable. I'm interested in worldwide software sales of NSMBU DX too. Feels like it is doing well for what is kinda a port without much marketing, but I feel it doesn't have the impact anymore other NSMB had. Can't see it ever becoming a 20M+ seller again.
 

Game Power

Alt-Account
Banned
Feb 15, 2019
15
Great start for Switch in 2019. This should be a huge year with all the momentum, plus new hardware.

About Xbox One, I think it's official that needs a permanent price drop and not only temporary deals.
 

jroc74

Member
Oct 27, 2017
28,992
Compared to january 2018 by week average:

Switch is up 29%
PS4 is down 4%
XB1 is down 47%
Ok, this is some of the info I wanted to know..


Dayum.....

It really shouldn't be a controversial statement to say that current gen performance does not dictate next gen performance. We've seen plenty of evidence against that notion.
While true, we just saw this exact same thing the end of last gen leading into this gen.

Last gen it was MS focusing so much on Kinect. This gen it's exclusives not really received well.

Sony ended last gen pumping out well received exclusives, same thing this gen.

The pattern is there...but I still agree with you. This gen showed MS had the right idea with digital, online gaming.. just terrible execution, messaging.
 
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legend166

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
2,113
I do wonder how the Switch momentum will hold up through the first half of the year. Nintendo, again, have dropped the ball with their lineup for the first half of the year, with the biggest release being Yoshi until Super Mario Maker 2 in June. They've really got to work on fixing their schedule.
 

Mr.Gamerson

Member
Oct 27, 2017
906
I don't think Sony really needs to drop the price as long as they can stay within a 15% YOY decline or less before PS5 is announced. I think the fact that Microsoft is doing so poor already makes them feel more secure in chasing profit instead of market-share.