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January 2019 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, February 12th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
So yeah.
Smash Ultimate through 8 weeks (Week 4 2019) - 3.32M Sell-Through, and its sold an additional 66K at retail in the following two weeks.
NSMBWii was at 3,366,296 though Week 7 2010.
Indeed, unless PS5 doesn't have BC (which it will), the digital age changes everything.
Most PS4 owners will remain locked into the ecosystem, specially if the PS5 is $399.
Plus the momentum Sony has/will have entering next gen compared with MS's one is incomparable...PS4 is basically flat in its worts market while MS is down almost 50%, with no momentum changer in sight, while Sony has many heavy hitters left, with TloU2 set to break records.
At this point in time I doubt MS wil reach 50M by 2021, while Sony could reach 125M.
The majority of them probably know it's the natural evolution of a console cycle and will still post it. That's what is frustrating to me.
If anything, I think this supports not dropping the price.
I suppose the question is how much would PS4 grow from the price cut vs how much it would have sold normally. At this point in the gen, perhaps keeping the price up and getting more revenue from the last few console sales is better. Especially with a new gen around the corner.
See my opinion is people can talk up Gamepass all they want and even BC but it doesn't matter if you don't have quality software to back it up. It's why the Switch is doing so well right now and why PS4 had its second best year at year 5.
If PS5 is truly BC and $399 I'd trade my Pro for one in a heartbeat for one regardless of strong launch lineup because it'd be a minimal hit to me whereas a $499 no BC PS5 would take some time to save for.
Right? This is basic 1+1 type stuff. I guess "MOAR GROWTH!" takes precedent though.
Was there digital sales in 2010 on the Wii? I forgot...So yeah.
Smash Ultimate through 8 weeks (Week 4 2019) - 3.32M Sell-Through, and its sold an additional 66K at retail in the following two weeks.
NSMBWii was at 3,366,296 though Week 7 2010.
Yes but the cards are stacked in Sony's favour. The longer they lose relevant to Sony in their stronger market the harder the turnaround will be especially if Sony make no fuck ups.
I think the PS4 sales are remarkable considering how deep we are in the cycle. Comfortable that they can sell nearly as well as 2018 while remaining at the same price as their competition is non-existent.
Fully expect a price drop post BF to stimulate sales going into 2020 and its final year. Wonder how far off it will end up being compared to 2018.
Hard to tell how well Switch is doing being so out of line, I can't see it being that significantly impacted by the next gen considering its USP.
No reason to be surprised by Xbox its been dead man walking for a while now waiting to be put out of its misery. With all the hiding of numbers it has been artificially kept alive by not knowing how poorly it was really doing, while Sony has no interest to reduce margin and sell more consoles as well making it seem Xbox was competitive.
Not sure how they expect to maintain sales - gonna be a Wii like drop off and that's before we get new consoles announced.
ps3ud0 8)
Fully expect a price drop post BF to stimulate sales going into 2020 and its final year. Wonder how far off it will end up being compared to 2018.
Hard to tell how well Switch is doing being so out of line, I can't see it being that significantly impacted by the next gen considering its USP.
No reason to be surprised by Xbox its been dead man walking for a while now waiting to be put out of its misery. With all the hiding of numbers it has been artificially kept alive by not knowing how poorly it was really doing, while Sony has no interest to reduce margin and sell more consoles as well making it seem Xbox was competitive.
Not sure how they expect to maintain sales - gonna be a Wii like drop off and that's before we get new consoles announced.
ps3ud0 8)
It has to be. Also a $199 PS4 Superslim wouldn't be surprising
I agree in thinking the Switch will be kinda immune to the next generation of consoles. Of course it will be impacted but like you say its USP isn't diminished unless we see next gen devices offering something similar.
Any possibility that Sony/Microsoft could go the Nintendo route and launch a system on March-ish 2020?
Seemed to work well for Nintendo and helped deal with shortages (well to an extent ).
Or was it just special circumstances for Nintendo, and Sony/Microsoft will do the common fall launch?
The persistent line of releases the Switch has seen since October have clearly revitalized whatever momentum the console lost in the first half of last year. Its performance is actually fantastic, it almost outsold the other two put together (also, NSMBU is clearly another Wii U port that will overperform on Switch).
Lol
- It saw RE2 and KH3 launch last month, hardly "no games"
- Days Gone launches in April
Yes, you are right. $199 this year is even less likely during Days of Play. They could even ride the whole year without price cuts depending of their unannounced games (sorry not counting Days gone, it won't be a system seller like Spidey or GoW).
Sony nor MS have the cache to do a paradigm shift like Nintendo can, not with their audiences.
Being only a games company gives Nintendo much better ability to change things up knowing they will have the first party to exploit their hardware and produce games people want/have to play.
I like to understand more about streaming in the future and how being platform agnostic might shake things up but this isn't the thread for that.
ps3ud0 8)
Ahh for some reason I forgot it already happened. 2019 gonna be rough for Xbox One for sure.
Yeah, I meant US only!
Thanks for the numbers. What was Xbox 360 at in US LTD last we know?
They NEED to drop the price. They'll risk losing customers to gamepass.
It'll definitely be impacted in terms of big mainstream games though. Even now a lot of titles skip it but engines will be updated for more power. I don't think that'll make a change in sells as we've seen PS4 isn't effected by Switch and Vice versa.
Switch barely receives any mainstream games from third parties now. It sells almost exclusively due to strong first party software.
If Switch starts to falter during the early days of PS5/XB2, it'll almost certainly be due to Nintendo dropping the ball on launching compelling software during that timeframe.
except, that it did, 2 highly awaited games with an strong as hell fanbase behind em...
I think it was over 40 million in the US alone at the end of the gen. The Xbox One doesn't have nothing like the Kinect to appeal to casuals this time either.
How do the two correlate?
If someone is interested in buying PS4, why would Gamepass stop them?
I would love that and its maddening to me why they dont do it at this point. The Xbox One isnt going to have the extra years that cross into next gen that the PS4 will see. They should be in a bigger hurry to get out the Scarlet since these numbers are very troubling and heading towards rock bottom, but the only thing stopping them is that they probably aren''t ready both in terms of hardware and software.
They dont want to release scarlet before sony drops the ps5, they want to wait and that is gonna hurt
There was a lot of moaning last E3 because Smash was like 30 minutes of a 45 minute direct and I personally (as a non Smash fan) was not satisfied (this was corrected in September with the deluge of games I did want)
That said, I was never crazy enough to think Nintendo lost E3 in any way. That E3 presentation probably helped them push towards the insane launch later in the year. There is always a huge disconnect between some opinion leaders and the bandwagoneers after every E3 and what the public actually things about a show.
E3 2018 for Nintendo will go down as a strong presentation
Best way to get clicks/engagement of a topic for any would-be OP is to insert the Big 3 and pair it with either (Best E3 ever) or (worst E3 ever). Nuanced takes at E3 is never rewarded with anything but silence.
Its not as trivial as that since Im sure the PS5 getting a head start by even months scares the hell out of them. Everything needs to align correctly and certain conditions need to be present before shipping the hardware to consumers. And Im sure there are internal reasons that are indicating that they wont be able to do it till 2020.
Sony's biggest reason for launching in 2020 is that the PS4 has just been selling so well and isnt going to see what the Xbox One is seeing when it comes to the level of sales decline for at least another year.
I think the bigger lesson is which third party games have done well on the system. A lot of late ports have performed strongly enough that developers have come back to release more old games for it. It's clear being available on a system day one doesn't mean what it used to. In terms of the Switch, the platform itself is the appeal.
As to the numbers, Xbox did almost exactly what I predicted! ...but I'd be lying if I said my numbers were anything other than guessing they'd all underperform. Lol. Switch did crazy and PS4 did very well given its age.
I'm thinking Microsoft won't be too fussed about their low numbers. They've probably accepted what the system has done and are just riding this out until whatever they have planned next.
He's joking clearly. Making fun of the people saying it doesn't matter if something bombs because it's on Gamepass.
OP
OP
NPD Prediction Results - January 2019
Units
1. Expy - 18,000
2. Andromeda - 26,000
3. Zedark - 38,000
3. kyo2004 - 38,000
5. Lelouch0612 - 43,000
6. slavesnyder - 46,000
7. Moltres006 - 48,000
7. donny2112 - 48,000
9. Hammer24 - 55,000
10. Rouk' - 58,000
10. TurnoftheCentury - 58,000
10. wilmbreak - 58,000
13. CosmicBolt - 63,000
13. MANUELF - 63,000
13. ShellshockPrime - 63,000
13. WestEgg - 63,000
17. Mbolibombo - 65,000
17. allan-bh - 65,000
19. MrTired - 66,000
20. ThatRandomCliff - 67,000
21. Darth Smurf X - 68,000
21. JayBee - 68,000
21. brykuhn91 - 68,000
24. Dougieflesh - 70,000
24. Fdkn - 70,000
26. Kaveri - 71,000
27. ConfusedGamer - 73,000
27. Mare - 73,000
29. KillerMan91 - 75,000
29. Ryng Manuel Tolu - 75,000
29. pswii60 - 75,000
32. Jeean - 76,000
33. Boomasoona - 78,000
33. Dr. Mario - 78,000
33. Myriotes - 78,000
36. Nocturnal - 79,000
36. Slarvax - 79,000
36. fiendcode - 79,000
39. Alblowi - 83,000
39. Davy - 83,000
39. anexanhume - 83,000
39. useyourloaf - 83,000
43. Wander_ - 84,000
44. Skgr - 87,000
44. Welfare - 87,000
46. Corporate Clown - 88,000
46. Keith Stat - 88,000
46. jroc74 - 88,000
46. pitseleh - 88,000
50. Elandyll - 93,000
51. cakely - 94,000
52. DanR93 - 98,000
52. DeuceGamer - 98,000
52. Logan Hardy - 98,000
52. Sangetsu-II - 98,000
52. Toni - 98,000
57. gargles - 101,000
58. Astrogamer - 103,000
59. Kill3r7 - 108,000
60. Sterok - 110,000
61. Wandu - 117,000
61. plusaflag - 117,000
63. El Manco - 118,000
63. MasterChumly - 118,000
65. Bitch Pudding - 123,000
65. James - 123,000
67. Mercenary09 - 131,000
68. julian - 133,000
69. Pachter - 135,000
70. HighJump - 138,000
71. score01 - 143,000
72. iag - 175,000
73. Primethius - 183,000
73. Ritz - 183,000
75. only_fools_&_horses - 195,000
76. Stanng243 - 198,000
Points
Congratulations, Expy! :D
Units
1. Expy - 18,000
2. Andromeda - 26,000
3. Zedark - 38,000
3. kyo2004 - 38,000
5. Lelouch0612 - 43,000
6. slavesnyder - 46,000
7. Moltres006 - 48,000
7. donny2112 - 48,000
9. Hammer24 - 55,000
10. Rouk' - 58,000
10. TurnoftheCentury - 58,000
10. wilmbreak - 58,000
13. CosmicBolt - 63,000
13. MANUELF - 63,000
13. ShellshockPrime - 63,000
13. WestEgg - 63,000
17. Mbolibombo - 65,000
17. allan-bh - 65,000
19. MrTired - 66,000
20. ThatRandomCliff - 67,000
21. Darth Smurf X - 68,000
21. JayBee - 68,000
21. brykuhn91 - 68,000
24. Dougieflesh - 70,000
24. Fdkn - 70,000
26. Kaveri - 71,000
27. ConfusedGamer - 73,000
27. Mare - 73,000
29. KillerMan91 - 75,000
29. Ryng Manuel Tolu - 75,000
29. pswii60 - 75,000
32. Jeean - 76,000
33. Boomasoona - 78,000
33. Dr. Mario - 78,000
33. Myriotes - 78,000
36. Nocturnal - 79,000
36. Slarvax - 79,000
36. fiendcode - 79,000
39. Alblowi - 83,000
39. Davy - 83,000
39. anexanhume - 83,000
39. useyourloaf - 83,000
43. Wander_ - 84,000
44. Skgr - 87,000
44. Welfare - 87,000
46. Corporate Clown - 88,000
46. Keith Stat - 88,000
46. jroc74 - 88,000
46. pitseleh - 88,000
50. Elandyll - 93,000
51. cakely - 94,000
52. DanR93 - 98,000
52. DeuceGamer - 98,000
52. Logan Hardy - 98,000
52. Sangetsu-II - 98,000
52. Toni - 98,000
57. gargles - 101,000
58. Astrogamer - 103,000
59. Kill3r7 - 108,000
60. Sterok - 110,000
61. Wandu - 117,000
61. plusaflag - 117,000
63. El Manco - 118,000
63. MasterChumly - 118,000
65. Bitch Pudding - 123,000
65. James - 123,000
67. Mercenary09 - 131,000
68. julian - 133,000
69. Pachter - 135,000
70. HighJump - 138,000
71. score01 - 143,000
72. iag - 175,000
73. Primethius - 183,000
73. Ritz - 183,000
75. only_fools_&_horses - 195,000
76. Stanng243 - 198,000
Points
Code:
January 2019 Overall 2019 Top (1/1)
01. Expy 124.04 Expy 124.04
02. Andromeda 118.14 Andromeda 118.14
03. kyo2004 114.08 kyo2004 114.08
04. Zedark 113.56 Zedark 113.56
05. slavesnyder 108.05 slavesnyder 108.05
06. Lelouch0612 107.64 Lelouch0612 107.64
07. Moltres006 103.52 Moltres006 103.52
08. Hammer24 102.03 Hammer24 102.03
09. CosmicBolt 101.54 CosmicBolt 101.54
10. donny2112 101.40 donny2112 101.40
11. Fdkn 100.24 Fdkn 100.24
12. MANUELF 99.61 MANUELF 99.61
13. wilmbreak 99.35 wilmbreak 99.35
14. WestEgg 99.09 WestEgg 99.09
15. Rouk' 98.98 Rouk' 98.98
16. TurnoftheCentury 98.82 TurnoftheCentury 98.82
17. allan-bh 98.42 allan-bh 98.42
18. Nocturnal 98.37 Nocturnal 98.37
19. ThatRandomCliff 98.28 ThatRandomCliff 98.28
20. Darth Smurf X 98.23 Darth Smurf X 98.23
21. fiendcode 98.23 fiendcode 98.23
22. ShellshockPrime 98.03 ShellshockPrime 98.03
23. Wander_ 97.53 Wander_ 97.53
24. useyourloaf 97.27 useyourloaf 97.27
25. MrTired 97.20 MrTired 97.20
26. JayBee 97.16 JayBee 97.16
27. Mbolibombo 97.10 Mbolibombo 97.10
28. Dougieflesh 97.05 Dougieflesh 97.05
29. Kaveri 96.93 Kaveri 96.93
30. Dr. Mario 96.54 Dr. Mario 96.54
31. Davy 95.94 anexanhume 95.94
32. anexanhume 95.94 Davy 95.94
33. jroc74 95.89 jroc74 95.89
34. KillerMan91 95.82 KillerMan91 95.82
35. Astrogamer 95.19 Astrogamer 95.19
36. Jeean 95.01 Jeean 95.01
37. Myriotes 94.94 Myriotes 94.94
38. Boomasoona 94.84 Boomasoona 94.84
39. brykuhn91 94.78 brykuhn91 94.78
40. ConfusedGamer 94.72 ConfusedGamer 94.72
41. Keith Stat 94.56 Keith Stat 94.56
42. Sterok 93.93 Sterok 93.93
43. Mare 93.66 Mare 93.66
44. gargles 93.51 gargles 93.51
45. Slarvax 93.06 Slarvax 93.06
46. Skgr 92.82 Skgr 92.82
47. pswii60 92.10 pswii60 92.10
48. DanR93 92.06 DanR93 92.06
49. Ryng Manuel Tolu 91.83 Ryng Manuel Tolu 91.83
50. Elandyll 91.59 Elandyll 91.59Congratulations, Expy! :D
I would think the constant stream of indies and mid range titles helps lift the baseline when no big first party titles are launching.
But yeah that's not the type of support that will change when next gen consoles come out.
The problem for Microsoft and their timing for their next console is the third party publishers that see Xbox/Playstation as essentially a single market for their games. So all the publishers making next-gen games right now aren't going to time their releases for 12 months earlier just because Microsoft jumps early.
Why is MS even afraid? With xcloud they worry to much about hardware.
Ive actually been thinking if its possible that Nintendo will release a "switch console" for sake of argument
will be a carbon copy of PS5/ XbTWO, its whole raison d'etre wont be for Nintendo own games (those will still be made for the SWITCH specs range) but for it to run Next Gen 3rd party games
Is that really a problem? as long as keep their backwards as they did this gen and manage to get at least 4 AAA Games on their own, they can run 1 year ahead of everyone else and have a pool ready out for when 3rd party makes the transition
There's really no reason for such a device to exist. Third parties are not going to make exclusives for a Switch pro or Switch console, ignoring the (by then) 50-60M install base on the base Switch.
And anyway, Nintendo putting out a powerful box is not and has never been a guarantee that third parties will put there games on it.
Nintendo has found a pretty winning formula here with the hybrid form factor and strong first party software. I don't see them changing up their strategy too much in the foreseeable future.
who said Exclusives? I meant run of the mill ports
Industry is not the same now as in Gamecube era. 3rd party is willingly to put out on as many devices as they can as long as its an easy job to port. if, IF nintendo were to release said device, 3rd party will jump at it no question asked.
Think of it, they can offer a Consoles for 1st Party + 3rd party or a "budget" version for mostly just 1st party (and those with another console or PC already)
and, as I said, from a logic standard point, they are not longer splitting work force cause all exclusvie will still be done with Switch as target.
What I mean by exclusives is games that can run on this Switch console but not the base Switch, which will have probably a ~60M user base by the time next gen consoles come around. Third parties will not want to completely forgo that size of a base and chase a completely unproven base on a different console.
What if nobody buys this hypothetical console? What if they hybrid functionality is far more important to the masses as a selling point than most here think? The big third party publishers are very risk averse, they will not put out full parity with next gen consoles on a completely unproven stationary Nintendo box.