January 2019 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, February 12th

Feb 6, 2019
26
What I mean by exclusives is games that can run on this Switch console but not the base Switch, which will have probably a ~60M user base by the time next gen consoles come around. Third parties will not want to completely forgo that size of a base and chase a completely unproven base on a different console.

What if nobody buys this hypothetical console? What if they hybrid functionality is far more important to the masses as a selling point than most here think? The big third party publishers are very risk averse, they will not put out full parity with next gen consoles on a completely unproven stationary Nintendo box.
ok, so you are believing that a PS5 carbon copy that gets all PS5 3rd party PLUS all Nintendo 1st party, wont sell, when Switch been selling mostly on 1st Party alone??

what drives you to believe that scenario is possible?
 
Jan 21, 2018
2,028
That won't help, sadly. There is absolutely a thing when it comes to devaluing your product when it seems like it is ‘on sale’ all the time.
And then when you cant have it on sale, you feel the burn. MS is still recuperating from the crazy deals they had last year, Im sure they would have it at a lower price if they could atm.

Maybe the Anthem bundles will help, but this is the longest the Xbox One has gone without a sale price in a long time. And it feels like Xbox hardware is tanking because of that.
 
Oct 25, 2017
1,826
QLD, Australia
Everyone thought the same thing with PS2 and guess what happened? Cell processor and $599 US DOLLARS.

You’re naive if you honestly think next gen is a surefire Sony win based off PS4. Anything can happen. Just like PS3. Sony is not untouchable. Nor is Microsoft or Nintendo. All three are prone to missteps.
Sony’s failure console sold more WW LTD than the 360, outsold it month by month WW outside of the Kinect launch window.

US =! World.

So going on past performance Sony’s next console will outsell MS’ worldwide, because they’ve done it 3 generations in a row, even the generation they fucked up and still sold ~90m consoles.

OT: -4% down YoY weekly sales is extremely good. I was expecting at least 10-15%.

Switch performance is exceptional but expected.

Xbox, given the value proposition in services on offer which people argue is what’s building their momentum going into next gen...I’m sure things will pick up, but I could see a sub-4000k year ahead even with a 2000k holiday period.
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,734
Italy
PS4 and XB1 have entered their 7th year in the market. I don't see why it should be surprising their hardware sales are dropping. It's just the usual product lifecycle. Also, they have accumulated a big installed base in the US and generating a lot of revenues through software and digital sales.
 
Oct 27, 2017
2,433
PS4 and XB1 have entered their 7th year in the market. I don't see why it should be surprising their hardware sales are dropping. It's just the usual product lifecycle. Also, they have accumulated a big installed base in the US and generating a lot of revenues through software and digital sales.
The problem is next gen isn’t that close. You’re supposed to launch your next system when your current system still has a lot of mindshare. Those Xbox One numbers seem too low for MS to wait almost two years to launch its successor.
 
Jan 17, 2019
271
And then when you cant have it on sale, you feel the burn. MS is still recuperating from the crazy deals they had last year, Im sure they would have it at a lower price if they could atm.

Maybe the Anthem bundles will help, but this is the longest the Xbox One has gone without a sale price in a long time. And it feels like Xbox hardware is tanking because of that.
IIRC X1S was on sale for short period of time during January on Amazon and Gamestop for 229-249.

PS4 and XB1 have entered their 7th year in the market.
You mean 6th. They turned 5 fully few months ago.
 
Oct 27, 2017
7,742
UK
Sony’s failure console sold more WW LTD than the 360, outsold it month by month WW outside of the Kinect launch window.

US =! World.

So going on past performance Sony’s next console will outsell MS’ worldwide, because they’ve done it 3 generations in a row, even the generation they fucked up and still sold ~90m consoles.
Firstly, this is a NPD thread so clearly it's the US sales that are of relevance here.

But with regards to your claim above, do you have a source? I can only see PS3 and 360 both around 84m LTD WW with no clear winner.

Buy yes, Sony is a behemoth. PS3 only really "failed" in US and UK, outside of that the "failure console" narrative is nonsense. It performed well elsewhere. Its only misstep was the launch price but that was quickly resolved through subsequent hardware revisions. They didn't have the $1b+ disaster RROD to contend with and the media narrative surrounding PS3 was actually very positive after the launch woes thanks to an investment in interesting unique exclusives from Journey to Uncharted.

I still think the 360 did well under the circumstances, especially given this was the generation that Wii was so strong too. But it's true that Microsoft has their work cut out for them if they want to compete directly in the traditional sense next gen. Hence why they are changing tactics between a greater focus on PA and xCloud, so they won't only be reliant on console sales for their platform. But it's content where they need to invest most IMHO - that's why Sony and Nintendo continue to survive and bounce back. Content is everything.
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,734
Italy
The problem is next gen isn’t that close. You’re supposed to launch your next system when your current system still has a lot of mindshare. Those Xbox One numbers seem too low for MS to wait almost two years to launch its successor.
Is that a problem? When the product is mature companies will focus on squeezing the existing userbase with new contents. Also, price cuts might attract new consumers and new territories. There’s nothing bad in platforms dropping in hardware sales (but still selling good!) when companies can get big revenues from digital and software sales.

You mean 6th. They turned 5 fully few months ago
Yes, 6th year but this doesn’t change what I’ve written.
 
Oct 25, 2017
1,826
QLD, Australia
User Warned: Antagonizing Another User and System Warring
Isn’t this an NPD thread? This is directly related to the US. Take your Bs elsewhere.
Your geocentrism & myopic view of the world doesn’t alter the fact that Sony has outsold MS for 3 gens, including one where their device was a year late & twice the cost at launch.

But yeah, stick to the ‘USA! USA!’ view.
 
Oct 25, 2017
14,229
ok, so you are believing that a PS5 carbon copy that gets all PS5 3rd party PLUS all Nintendo 1st party, wont sell, when Switch been selling mostly on 1st Party alone??

what drives you to believe that scenario is possible?
No, I'm saying a Switch positioned as a PS5 carbon copy will not get all PS5 third party games. Not even most. That's what you don't seem to be understanding.

Why would every publisher suddenly decide to support this hypothetical Nintendo console fully on day one when they never give that kind of support to Nintendo consoles? The audience is completely unproven, who would buy their games?
 
Jun 18, 2018
388
I don't think Xbox has (or should have) a messaging problem. Microsoft has Xbox plastered in all Windows OSs sold. That is a massive upper hand in terms of marketing.
 
Jan 21, 2019
156
Everyone thought the same thing with PS2 and guess what happened? Cell processor and $599 US DOLLARS.

You’re naive if you honestly think next gen is a surefire Sony win based off PS4. Anything can happen. Just like PS3. Sony is not untouchable. Nor is Microsoft or Nintendo. All three are prone to missteps.
With sales from Xbox going down every year. With numbers like Xbox are putting like January you guys can't see what is going on I give up.

The brand is losing relevance every year more. They sold 6 million last year. They will have lucky if they sell 4 this year.

What reality shows me is next gen probably Xbox will sell even less consoles than this gen.

I prefer reality than wishfull thinking.
 
Oct 25, 2017
86
And then when you cant have it on sale, you feel the burn. MS is still recuperating from the crazy deals they had last year, Im sure they would have it at a lower price if they could atm.

Maybe the Anthem bundles will help, but this is the longest the Xbox One has gone without a sale price in a long time. And it feels like Xbox hardware is tanking because of that.
But the Xbox has been on sale. Xbox One X has been $100 off for weeks now, and will be all the way through March.
 
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Feb 5, 2018
1,906
With sales from Xbox going down every year. With numbers like Xbox are putting like January you guys can't see what is going on I give up.

The brand is losing relevance every year more. They sold 6 million last year. They will have lucky if they sell 4 this year.

What reality shows me is next gen probably Xbox will sell even less consoles than this gen.

I prefer reality than wishfull thinking.
the original Xbox was selling more units every year until 360?
 
Feb 5, 2018
1,906
Well OG Xbox didn`t have a January with 101k or less before 360.
It didn't reachd a fifth or sixth year either. By the way, you were describing a tendency of Next Xbox selling less than One because One is selling less every year. Xbox 360 sold way better than OG, so OG should have been selling better and better every year till 360 I guess.
 
Jan 21, 2019
156
It didn't reachd a fifth or sixth year either. By the way, you were describing a tendency of Next Xbox selling less than One because One is selling less every year. Xbox 360 sold way better than OG, so OG should have been selling better and better every year till 360 I guess.
Xbox360 exploded their sales after Kinect. People forget about that. They had a great momentum 2011-2013.
 
Feb 5, 2018
1,906
Xbox360 exploded their sales after Kinect. People forget about that. They had a great momentum 2011-2013.
Are you telling me that the fate of a console can change during it's commercial life and it's not written from the start? I cannot believe you. The fate of the next Xbox is written by now as we all know.

By the way 360 was selling 10M by year and was 40M installed base when Kinect was launched. It was pretty fine before kinect.
 
Oct 25, 2017
2,321
Your geocentrism & myopic view of the world doesn’t alter the fact that Sony has outsold MS for 3 gens, including one where their device was a year late & twice the cost at launch.

But yeah, stick to the ‘USA! USA!’ view.
Dude, no one is denying the ps brand success. Its just that this is a NPD thread, we are talking about sales in north america (except mexico).

Relax a little.
 
Oct 27, 2017
3,596
Switch is doing great. 2019 will be their first "win" (worldwide). While PS4 will be #2. 2019 and 2020 will be hard for the XBO.
Both, the PS4 and the XBO need price cuts, which we will see around April, is my guess.

Hearing some stuff about a new PS4 SKU from large retailers here. Could be the PS4 Super Slim maybe? PS4 price cut after this quarter ends? Maybe this could give the PS4 another small boost.

Firstly, this is a NPD thread so clearly it's the US sales that are of relevance here.

But with regards to your claim above, do you have a source? I can only see PS3 and 360 both around 84m LTD WW with no clear winner.
Yeah, we have a source (EEDAR - An NPD Group Company) It got posted on Neogaf and Era over and over again.
 
Oct 27, 2017
2,504
Watertown, NY
Constant deals all the time.
Mainly because during this time period it doesn't sell that well. Which is a lot of consoles since right after January everything drops. Switch seemed to keep it's momentum because of late smash release in December bled into January followed by Mario Deluxe, which did much better than I expected.

Third party is the only thing PS4/XBOX have for January and most of February, and no one is buying crackdown from the looks of UK sales thread. So heavy hitters you have to sell consoles are going to be Kingdom Hearts 3, RE2. And sony had a limited KH3 bundle which im not sure if anyone has numbers on yet in how well it did if it had limited supply?

But the games MS in bundling no one cares about right now. BF V is not going to sell well since it had it's time for fall already, everyone is moving from Fortnite to Apex, and Fallout 76 has a lot of stank on it.
 
Feb 5, 2018
1,906
Your geocentrism & myopic view of the world doesn’t alter the fact that Sony has outsold MS for 3 gens, including one where their device was a year late & twice the cost at launch.

But yeah, stick to the ‘USA! USA!’ view.
"In astronomy, the geocentric model (also known asgeocentrism, or the Ptolemaic system) is a superseded description of the Universe with Earth at the center. Under thegeocentric model, the Sun, Moon, stars, and planets all orbited Earth."

 
Nov 3, 2017
2,364
The problem is next gen isn’t that close. You’re supposed to launch your next system when your current system still has a lot of mindshare. Those Xbox One numbers seem too low for MS to wait almost two years to launch its successor.
It´s not like they have a choice though. Xone X is barely a year old, they can´t release another console this soon without getting in Sega territory of hardware release madness. And that´s certainly something they want to avoid.
 

Benji

US Sales Insider
Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,060
Your geocentrism & myopic view of the world doesn’t alter the fact that Sony has outsold MS for 3 gens, including one where their device was a year late & twice the cost at launch.

But yeah, stick to the ‘USA! USA!’ view.
What the fuck at this post?

This is an NPD thread. If your going to go on console Wars tirades take it someplace else
 
Mar 4, 2018
1,458
Switch is doing great. 2019 will be their first "win" (worldwide). While PS4 will be #2. 2019 and 2020 will be hard for the XBO.
Both, the PS4 and the XBO need price cuts, which we will see around April, is my guess.

Hearing some stuff about a new PS4 SKU from large retailers here. Could be the PS4 Super Slim maybe? PS4 price cut after this quarter ends? Maybe this could give the PS4 another small boost.


Yeah, we have a source (EEDAR - An NPD Group Company) It got posted on Neogaf and Era over and over again.
I didn’t know you had connections. A super slim and slim pro with a price reduction would be much needed.
 
Oct 26, 2017
3,469
Without going into any poster specifics, I think trying to limit the scope of the thread is a little unfair; The NPD numbers are often used to extrapolate WW sales.

If Sony is flat YoY and Xbox down 50% in January, we can surmise how January went WW for them, and from there the likely trend those US and WW sales will have for most 2019 months.

Furthermore, we can talk about general momentum going into next gen.

We see this all of the time in the NPD threads because the NPD numbers are the most reliable and consistent ones, so people that like sales sometimes talk indistinctly about one or the other
 
Jan 21, 2018
2,028
But the Xbox has been on sale. Xbox One X has been $100 off for weeks now, and will be all the way through March.
I have not seen any of those deals, so I thought they were spent from 2018.

But damn they even had a $50 off sale in the last few days for the January NPD. Without it, it probably would have sold in the 90-95k ballpark. Just DAMN.

The rest of the deals are definitely to help the February NPD, hopefully the Anthem bundles do well too. I just did not know they had their usual sales starting again weeks ago.

I wonder how the PS4/Pro at $299 will do vs. the Xbox One S/X at $249/$399 with all those different bundles in the February NPD