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January 2019 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, February 12th

donny2112

Member
Oct 27, 2017
620
ITT, predict for the NPD January 2019 retail period (January 5-February 2, 2019) for U.S. hardware sales.

What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined by the National Retail Federation (find calendar links here).
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but SalesEra followers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.
Why are there still predictions when official NPD numbers are not released?
Trust me said:
To have fun? To share thoughts and speculation with a like mined group of people? To be able to communicate directly with individuals who study this industry for a living?
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ethomaz said:
Since 2010 I guess we don't get official numbers anymore... that doesn't mean we don't get the numbers.

The ranking and results are based in real numbers.
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Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EST on Tuesday, February 12. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: January 5-February 2, 2019 (4 weeks, December was 5 weeks)
NPD Physical Results Release: [strike]Thursday, February 14[/strike] Tuesday, February 19 @ 4 p.m. EST (public thread with physical+digital posted on February 19th ~6:30 p.m. EST)

Format:

[NSW]
[PS4]
[XB1]

Good/Bad Formatting
Code: 
Good              Bad
[XB1] 200K      [XB1] 200 thousand
[XB1] 200,000   [XB1] 200.000
[XB1] 200000    [XB1] - 200000


Potential hardware impacting events in January:
Usual January/post-Christmas lull before February surge

Prediction Format: (repeating to emphasize to use this format)

[NSW]
[PS4]
[XB1]

December's Resuts
Welfare said:
Switch: 1.77M
XB1: 920K
PS4: 797K
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December 2017 NPD thread
January 2018 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive
 
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Welfare

Welfare

Prophet of Truth - You’re my Numberwall
Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,912
[NSW] 255K
[PS4] 172K
[XB1] 136K
 
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Sander VF

Sander VF

The Fallen
Oct 28, 2017
25,922
Tbilisi, Georgia
Benji, now that RE2 and KH3 have had enough time to have effect, can you tell us if they managed to affect your outlook on this month's hardware in any meaningful way?
 
Bitch Pudding

Bitch Pudding

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,202
Thanks donny2112 for providing another round of mayhem!

May I ask if there will be a 2019e / total year estimate thread, too?

[NSW] 230K
[PS4] 160K
[XB1] 135K
 
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Dr. Mario

Dr. Mario

Member
Oct 27, 2017
13,825
Netherlands
I don't know what we're striving for, but I do know last month I was the only one with the perfect score of

RepulsiveCooperativeCavy-small.gif


So, I want to keep this up. Who knows, maybe I'll end the year with a BILLION.

[NSW] 230K
[PS4] 190K
[XB1] 120K
 
Mare

Mare

Alt account
Banned
Jan 28, 2019
36
[NSW] 270K
[PS4] 165K
[XB1] 130K

Tho is less weeks, with Mario and Smash momentum I think Switch will be stable from last year
 
julian

julian

Member
Oct 27, 2017
16,741
[NSW] 215K
[PS4] 135K
[XB1] 105K

I have absolutely no idea, but I'll actually try and take a stab at it this year.
 
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pswii60

pswii60

Member
Oct 27, 2017
26,654
The Milky Way
I remember Benji saying that XBO was looking low in January, so I suspect there will be a hangover now the holiday deals have finished. PS4 will be steady and I expect Switch to be strong again with the Smash effect.

[NSW] 305k
[PS4] 210k
[XBO] 140k
 
DriftingSpirit

DriftingSpirit

Member
Oct 25, 2017
17,897
That $50 Xbox deal applies to January, right? Or did it start late enough in January that it would basically apply to February?
 
Zedark

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
pswii60 said:
I remember Benji saying that XBO was looking low in January, so I suspect there will be a hangover now the holiday deals have finished. PS4 will be steady and I expect Switch to be strong again with the Smash effect.

[NSW] 305k
[PS4] 210k
[XBO] 140k
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That's incredibly strong for Switch: almost a 40% increase in weekly average.
 

lost7

Member
Feb 20, 2018
2,750
Seeing the crazy numbers Apex Legends is pulling, do we think the game could have a similar effect to what Fortnite did last year and actually sell many consoles or it is mostly selling to the same crowd who already owns PS4/Xbox?
 
slavesnyder

slavesnyder

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,127
SlaveSnyder Media Corp.
lost7 said:
Seeing the crazy numbers Apex Legends is pulling, do we think the game could have a similar effect to what Fortnite did last year and actually sell many consoles or it is mostly selling to the same crowd who already owns PS4/Xbox?
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the system sellers' ship has sailed. there will be an uptick, but i guess the only thing that would really move units will be a hardware revision and/or a price drop.
 
Lelouch0612

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,200
Deader2818 said:
I'd have too look at how last year was but switch was strong start of the month and ps4 was moving decently through most.

Xbox was just kinda there. I wouldn't expect any crazy high numbers for ps4 or xbox.
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Yeah I was guessing so. Hardware will be boring this year for PS4/X1 but at least software should be really interesting (Q1 and Q4 should be really strong).

End of gen are usually boring but with the Switch releasing mid-gen there is always going to be at least one system in its strong years. Great for us :)
 
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