• Ever wanted an RSS feed of all your favorite gaming news sites? Go check out our new Gaming Headlines feed! Read more about it here.

Deleted member 2785

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
2,119
I'm aware this may not be a popular opinion. But, I blame the demise of AAA on the fidelity arms race.

As someone who owns a 4k PC and a very nice 4k screen, I keep going back into my switch or indie titles. Maybe I'm getting old, but I couldn't care less about P's or fidelity, art direction and game design still trumps all.

But that is just me.

It's not just you.

While Sony and MS battle about resolutions and flops, Switch is currently cleaning up, selling every unit that can be made, setting new records for indie SW sales and SW attach rates, while the SNES Classic is the hottest holiday item in gaming.

In battling for power, Nintendo was given a broad, uncontested market opportunity and are on their way towards dominating sales the next two years.
 

joe_zazen

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,490
Call of Duty: WWII is the #1 game on Steam currently, and has outsold Wolfenstein II by a massive margin in just 4 days. If you want to sell those kind of numbers, you'd better have a big open world full of stuff to see and do, or really popular multiplayer. There are exceptions. There will always be exceptions. But the signs are there, and people are foolish to ignore them.

That's my view. Vgames are more akin to sports and traditional games like cards than movies or books. People don't change sports or card games every few weeks because it is a pain learning new rules and strategies. Video games that can harness those desires are the ones currently dominating $-wise. Everything Blizzard + pubg + candy crush + LoL + dota + fifa + etc probably dwarf the revenue of single player, one and done games.
 

Hero

One Winged Slayer
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
6,728
It's not just you.

While Sony and MS battle about resolutions and flops, Switch is currently cleaning up, selling every unit that can be made, setting new records for indie SW sales and SW attach rates, while the SNES Classic is the hottest holiday item in gaming.

In battling for power, Nintendo was given a broad, uncontested market opportunity and are on their way towards dominating sales the next two years.

I think we're at the point in technology where graphics are "good enough" for the widest amount of consumers, as evident by all the money people pour into mobile games worldwide. That's not a knock against mobile but obviously those games aren't impressive next to what Sony and Microsoft are trying to push. There's obviously a market for power users that want the best experience possible but it's a niche.
 

Dr. Caroll

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
8,111
While Sony and MS battle about resolutions and flops, Switch is currently cleaning up, selling every unit that can be made, setting new records for indie SW sales and SW attach rates, while the SNES Classic is the hottest holiday item in gaming.
Meanwhile the new Call of Duty comes along and completely obliterates Nintendo's games in terms of sales. The market is in a very awkward place.
 

Hero

One Winged Slayer
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
6,728
Meanwhile the new Call of Duty comes along and completely obliterates Nintendo's games in terms of sales. The market is in a very awkward place.

A game that launches on three different platforms vs games that launch on one. CoD generates insane profits but it comes at a much higher development cost. Not to mention there are very few games that sell as well as CoD. It's like you missed the point Mat was trying to make.
 

Dr. Caroll

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
8,111
A game that launches on three different platforms vs games that launch on one. CoD generates insane profits but it comes at a much higher development cost. Not to mention there are very few games that sell as well as CoD. It's like you missed the point Mat was trying to make.
I am well aware of the kind of point he is making. My point is that Microsoft and Sony are operating in a completely different paradigm. Nintendo are not on their way to dominating sales, at least not automatically. The market has split down the middle where a bulk of sales are concentrated in a very small pool of AAA games. With luck, Nintendo will be able to absorb some of that through Switch ports of high profile titles, but the Switch's hardware and audience does present a problem.

It's not all peaches and sunshine for Nintendo. The real sticking point will be whether people buy games that are not stereotypically "Nintendo" games for the Switch. Without them, they've got a portable N64 on their hands. I love the N64, but let's be practical. Developers are not going to keep porting games to a console if nobody is buying them.

The problem with the N64, GC, Wii, DS, etc was that third party sales got crappier over time. People bought these consoles to "play games with Mario on the cover" essentially.
 

Hero

One Winged Slayer
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
6,728
I am well aware of the kind of point he is making. My point is that Microsoft and Sony are operating in a completely different paradigm. Nintendo are not on their way to dominating sales, at least not automatically. The market has split down the middle where a bulk of sales are concentrated in a very small pool of AAA games. With luck, Nintendo will be able to absorb some of that through Switch ports of high profile titles, but the Switch's hardware and audience does present a problem.

It's not all peaches and sunshine for Nintendo. The real sticking point will be whether people buy games that are not stereotypically "Nintendo" games for the Switch. Without them, they've got a portable N64 on their hands. I love the N64, but let's be practical. Developers are not going to keep porting games to a console if nobody is buying them.

The problem with the N64, GC, Wii, DS, etc was that third party sales got crappier over time. People bought these consoles to "play games with Mario on the cover" essentially.

You're well aware of the point but you dragged one of the biggest games from the biggest third party publisher into the argument to make a point about Nintendo Switch selling out not due to graphics, what meaningful comparison is there, because I must've missed it?

Not sure where this lack of peaches and sunshine for Nintendo is coming from either. They just endured the worst console they've ever produced, licked their wounds, and came back swinging with Switch. You can literally see third parties worldwide coming around on creating games for Switch and support is only going to get better, not worse. Super Bomberman R, Ultra Street Fighter II, Mario + Rabbids have been successful endeavors and you can see on the indie side Nicalis is throwing everything in their catalog at the system. Where's the cause for doom and gloom exactly?
 

ChapterBlack

Banned
Oct 29, 2017
510
I apologize for my ignorance but how can game dev margins be that thin?

For example here are budgets:

Grand Theft Auto V- 265 mil

Star Wars: Force Awakens: 306 mil

I get that people often see movies multiple times and/or end up purchasing home versions but you don't hear horror stories with movie productions or that the film industry is unsustainable
 

Hero

One Winged Slayer
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
6,728
I apologize for my ignorance but how can game dev margins be that thin?

For example here are budgets:

Grand Theft Auto V- 265 mil

Star Wars: Force Awakens: 306 mil

I get that people often see movies multiple times and/or end up purchasing home versions but you don't hear horror stories with movie productions or that the film industry is unsustainable

The cost to develop Star Wars is only part of the equation, same with the the money it makes in theaters, and even the DVD/Bluray/Digital copies. You're ignoring how much merchandise from Star Wars is sold globally every year. How much GTA V merch is there to buy in your average store like Wal-Mart or Target?
 

Dr. Caroll

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
8,111
You're well aware of the point but you dragged one of the biggest games from the biggest third party publisher into the argument to make a point about Nintendo Switch selling out not due to graphics, what meaningful comparison is there, because I must've missed it?
The Switch selling out is completely meaningless, is what I'm saying.

You can literally see third parties worldwide coming around on creating games for Switch and support is only going to get better, not worse. Super Bomberman R, Ultra Street Fighter II, Mario + Rabbids have been successful endeavors and you can see on the indie side Nicalis is throwing everything in their catalog at the system.
1% of UK FIFA sales were on Switch. Those kind of numbers may improve, but they paint a troubling picture of the Switch's performance on games that aren't, like I said, "stereotypically 'Nintendo' games". The Nintendo DS and Nintendo Wii alike had poor software sales of games that were not "stereotypically 'Nintendo' games". It remains to be seen whether the Nintendo Switch avoids the poor sales of the Wii and DS. Those consoles sold fantastically, with high attachment rates for "Nintendo"-like games, but most everything else sold poorly at best, terribly at worst. Of course a Rabbids game will sell well on the Switch. But that doesn't mean that third party titles are going to sell gangbusters.

Over the next 6 months or so, the picture will become clearer. But there is a firm historical precedent here people would be very wise to pay attention to. Support does not equal sales.

I get that people often see movies multiple times and/or end up purchasing home versions but you don't hear horror stories with movie productions or that the film industry is unsustainable
The film VFX industry has been on the brink of an implosion for many years.
 

ChapterBlack

Banned
Oct 29, 2017
510
The cost to develop Star Wars is only part of the equation, same with the the money it makes in theaters, and even the DVD/Bluray/Digital copies. You're ignoring how much merchandise from Star Wars is sold globally every year. How much GTA V merch is there to buy in your average store like Wal-Mart or Target?

I think if you take merch/advertising out the movie still cost 200 million just to film which is in the ballpark of any AAA game. I get that this is far and away not apples to apples but they are a big entertainment platform where the cost to view them has also stayed fairly stable, and they also deal with huge production teams and strict deadlines.
 

Omar

Member
Oct 31, 2017
160
Meanwhile the new Call of Duty comes along and completely obliterates Nintendo's games in terms of sales. The market is in a very awkward place.

How much more is Activision spending in marketing and production thou ? How many COD like franchises have they produced since COD4 ? They basically relay in a single IP.

The market is in a strange place as you said. AAA publishers created an expectation within his core market that it's proven to be unsustainable.

Then you have mobile developers like Supercell making more money than small countries with cartoony 3D visuals. Maybe, at the end game design does matters.
 
Last edited:

echofive

Member
Oct 27, 2017
19
I, for one, welcome our new indie overlords.

Obviously the market is moving towards GAAS, so I don't think the market will crash for the top tier. I don't think single player is going away - people still have stories they want to tell and this is a great medium for them (ala Last of Us). I see more AAA games going the way of street fighter and adding new characters/levels/service oriented dlc or create a changing game world ala MMO. I think that some companies will crash as their hiring and workplace is unsustainable, but I think the market will adapt quickly to it.
 

Cantaim

Member
Oct 25, 2017
33,276
The Stussining
I apologize for my ignorance but how can game dev margins be that thin?

For example here are budgets:

Grand Theft Auto V- 265 mil

Star Wars: Force Awakens: 306 mil

I get that people often see movies multiple times and/or end up purchasing home versions but you don't hear horror stories with movie productions or that the film industry is unsustainable
Overhead can be obscene in game companies. And no offense to movie companies but their productions are not as hectic as game companies from what I've read over the years. Moving a prop on set can cause absolutely no issues. But making small changes to the games code can have dozen of unforeseeable problems arrive no matter how well you plan.
 

AmFreak

Member
Oct 26, 2017
2,500
I apologize for my ignorance but how can game dev margins be that thin?

For example here are budgets:

Grand Theft Auto V- 265 mil

Star Wars: Force Awakens: 306 mil

I get that people often see movies multiple times and/or end up purchasing home versions but you don't hear horror stories with movie productions or that the film industry is unsustainable
If you made GTA V you don't have a problem, quite the contrary - you are swimming in money.
But there is only one GTA V.
And there lies the real problem, there are 1,2 or maybe a handful of games in each genre that suck all sales out of the market.
 

Hero

One Winged Slayer
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
6,728
The Switch selling out is completely meaningless, is what I'm saying.


1% of UK FIFA sales were on Switch. Those kind of numbers may improve, but they paint a troubling picture of the Switch's performance on games that aren't, like I said, "stereotypically 'Nintendo' games". The Nintendo DS and Nintendo Wii alike had poor software sales of games that were not "stereotypically 'Nintendo' games". It remains to be seen whether the Nintendo Switch avoids the poor sales of the Wii and DS. Those consoles sold fantastically, with high attachment rates for "Nintendo"-like games, but most everything else sold poorly at best, terribly at worst. Of course a Rabbids game will sell well on the Switch. But that doesn't mean that third party titles are going to sell gangbusters.

Over the next 6 months or so, the picture will become clearer. But there is a firm historical precedent here people would be very wise to pay attention to. Support does not equal sales.


The film VFX industry has been on the brink of an implosion for many years.

UK has never been Nintendo's biggest market, so not sure what FIFA's 1% is supposed to be, since we don't know expectations and they were forced to make it.

Not sure what you mean by "stereotypically Nintendo" games. Tons of third party games sold extremely well on DS and Wii. You will have to be more specific on what you are trying to point out, because you are just saying vague things without any form of actual concrete data that refutes the present day situation with the Switch.
 

Alastor3

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 28, 2017
8,297
- Crunchtime and other workplace related issues

I believe there are way less crunch time these days than it had 10 years ago.

I say that but I have no idea, I don't work in the game industry, it's just that I heard it less now than when I studied in 3D design.
 

Dr. Caroll

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
8,111
Not sure what you mean by "stereotypically Nintendo" games.
Mario, Pokemon, Layton, Final Fantasy, those brain training and/or puzzle games. They're the kind of games that crackled a million copies. Everything else was a in a huge slump. Same on the Wii.

Tons of third party games sold extremely well on DS and Wii.
Such as?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_Nintendo_DS_video_games

Silent Hill: Shattered Memories was an attempt to demonstrate that "mature" games could be successful on the platform. And it only broke even because it had a PS2 port. That's a problem. Consider how the Phoenix Wright series has always been plagued by poor sales. Nintendo platforms have a problem with poor third party sales.

It remains to be seen whether the Switch can buck this trend of people buying a particular kind of game for the Nintendo console and pretty much nothing else.
 

Altera

Banned
Nov 1, 2017
1,963
It's definitely getting the point of stagnation. I buy far fewer AAA games now than I did a few years ago. I'm just not interested in a lot of them and I feel like some series have overstayed their welcome (without trying anything truly new anyway)
 
Oct 27, 2017
2,766
Mario, Pokemon, Layton, Final Fantasy, those brain training and/or puzzle games. They're the kind of games that crackled a million copies. Everything else was a in a huge slump. Same on the Wii.


Such as?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_Nintendo_DS_video_games

Silent Hill: Shattered Memories was an attempt to demonstrate that "mature" games could be successful on the platform. And it only broke even because it had a PS2 port. That's a problem. Consider how the Phoenix Wright series has always been plagued by poor sales. Nintendo platforms have a problem with poor third party sales.

It remains to be seen whether the Switch can buck this trend of people buying a particular kind of game for the Nintendo console and pretty much nothing else.

DS games were cheap to make. Most of them them didn't need to sell millions to be considered a success. You act like a game needs to sell massive numbers to be considered successful. It all depends on the game's budget.
 

Hero

One Winged Slayer
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
6,728
Mario, Pokemon, Layton, Final Fantasy, those brain training and/or puzzle games. They're the kind of games that crackled a million copies. Everything else was a in a huge slump. Same on the Wii.

I'm still not understanding your point. Mario and Pokemon sold well on a Nintendo system, big surprise? What the hell do you mean by "in a huge slump?" Can you clarify or expand upon that, or are you just going to continue to use vague words that sound scary without context?



"As of March 31, 2011, there are 140 Nintendo DS games that sold over 1 million units"

Silent Hill: Shattered Memories was an attempt to demonstrate that "mature" games could be successful on the platform. And it only broke even because it had a PS2 port. That's a problem. Consider how the Phoenix Wright series has always been plagued by poor sales. Nintendo platforms have a problem with poor third party sales.

It remains to be seen whether the Switch can buck this trend of people buying a particular kind of game for the Nintendo console and pretty much nothing else.

Wii had many CoD titles that sold over a million units. Citing one shitty Silent Hill game is supposed to be indicative of third party success, are you for real?

The Ace Attorney sales have obviously been successful for what they are, considering Capcom is still making them, or are you seriously implying that a visual novel series should be selling on par with Call of Duty?
 

Dr. Caroll

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
8,111
DS games were cheap to make. Most of them them didn't need to sell millions to be considered a success.
There's a reason Capcom stopped localizing Phoenix Wright games. Remember Renegade Kid? Their FPS games on DS sold poorly. A lot of DS games sold poorly. It was a widespread problem. It's the exact same problem the N64 had. Plenty of third party support, but poor sales of third party games leading to publishers being less willing to support the platform. A vicious cycle. And it has been a Nintendo problem for years. We shall see whether the Switch bucks the very well established trend.

The Ace Attorney sales have obviously been successful for what they are, considering Capcom is still making them, or are you seriously implying that a visual novel series should be selling on par with Call of Duty?
They stopped localizing them, or at least started inconsistently localizing them, because they sold poorly outside Japan.

Wii had many CoD titles that sold over a million units. Citing one shitty Silent Hill game is supposed to be indicative of third party success, are you for real?
The fact you call it a "shitty Silent Hill game" says a lot. AFAIK, the only Call of Duty game we have official Wii sales figures for is World at War, which sold approximately a million copies. The problem is that the Wii had an install base that was much, much higher than the other consoles but its sales were a tiny fraction.

IIRC, and I could be misremembering, Black Ops sold 5 million on PS3 first week. 3 million on Xbox. And around 100,000 on Wii. Those are not the kind of sales figures that inspire confidence that your platform is healthy for third parties.
 
Last edited:
Oct 27, 2017
2,766
There's a reason Capcom stopped localizing Phoenix Wright games. Remember Renegade Kid? Their FPS games on DS sold poorly. A lot of DS games sold poorly. It was a widespread problem. It's the exact same problem the N64 had. Plenty of third party support, but poor sales of third party games leading to publishers being less willing to support the platform. A vicious cycle. And it has been a Nintendo problem for years. We shall see whether the Switch bucks the very well established trend.

Dementium sold so poorly that it got a sequel, and a remake on the 3DS? Capcom still localizes Ace Attorney games, the few that weren't were just Capcom being incompetent. Again, just because a game isn't a million seller, doesn't mean it was necessarily a failure. As I said, DS games were very cheap to make, so they didn't need to sell that much to be successful. This is a concept you don't seem to grasp.
 

Dr. Caroll

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
8,111
Dementium sold so poorly that it got a sequel, and a remake on the 3DS? Capcom still localizes Ace Attorney games, the few that weren't were just Capcom being incompetent. Again, just because a game isn't a million seller, doesn't mean it was necessarily a failure. As I said, DS games were very cheap to make, so they didn't need to sell that much to be successful. This is a concept you don't seem to grasp.
The developers stated that their games sold poorly. That's why Moon never got a sequel. Dementium sold very poorly in some regions. They eventually stopped making games due to poor 3DS game sales.
 
Oct 27, 2017
2,766
The developers stated that their games sold poorly. That's why Moon never got a sequel. Dementium sold very poorly in some regions. They eventually stopped making games due to poor 3DS game sales.
Where are you getting poor sales from? If you have any quotes or statements from these developers, I'd love to see them. Otherwise, it feels like you're just making baseless assumptions.
 
Last edited:

Hero

One Winged Slayer
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
6,728
There's a reason Capcom stopped localizing Phoenix Wright games. Remember Renegade Kid? Their FPS games on DS sold poorly. A lot of DS games sold poorly. It was a widespread problem. It's the exact same problem the N64 had. Plenty of third party support, but poor sales of third party games leading to publishers being less willing to support the platform. A vicious cycle. And it has been a Nintendo problem for years. We shall see whether the Switch bucks the very well established trend.


They stopped localizing them, or at least started inconsistently localizing them, because they sold poorly outside Japan.


The fact you call it a "shitty Silent Hill game" says a lot. AFAIK, the only Call of Duty game we have official Wii sales figures for is World at War, which sold approximately a million copies. The problem is that the Wii had an install base that was much, much higher than the other consoles but its sales were a tiny fraction.

IIRC, and I could be misremembering, Black Ops sold 5 million on PS3 first week. 3 million on Xbox. And around 100,000 on Wii. Those are not the kind of sales figures that inspire confidence that your platform is healthy for third parties.

So basically, you're just grasping at straws? I remember Renegade Kid, do you? Do you even know that they closed down because the co-founders wanted to pursue different things professionally and personally? I find it hilarious that you're trying to pin that on Nintendo.

Again, you're being extremely vague. Plenty of PS3 and Xbox 360 games sold poorly too, so did PS2 games, so the fuck what? EA just butchered Bioware Montreal because of how badly Mass Effect Andromeda bombed on PS4/XB1/PC, but I don't see you condemning Sony or Microsoft, not to mention they just killed Visceral Games after Dead Space 3, another flop that was a PS/XB game, bombed and their newest game wasn't looking too hot either. Not every game is going to be successful, nor should they, or do you disagree with that notion?
 

Dr. Caroll

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
8,111
Where are you getting poor sales from? If you have any quotes or statements from these developers, I'd love to see them.
"The sales in Europe were pretty good, but not as good as in the US. I'm sure there are many reasons for this. Top of the list is the fact that the European market seems to be even more controlled by retail than in the US. I get the impression that the DS is pushed harder as a platform for kids in the UK. Not by Nintendo, but by retail."

"Mature rated games on the Wii seem to do worse than on the DS. You have to develop where it makes sense financially. Would we love to make Dementium Wii? Absolutely! Will a publisher pay us to do that? Absolutely not!"

"Right now the future landscape for original titles on the DS does not look promising. Publishers are not willing to invest in original titles on the DS due to the general poor sales of original titles. I think Scribblenauts is one of the few Third Party original titles to sell well on the DS this year."

http://www.cubed3.com/news/13516/1/interview-renegade-kid-talks-dementium-ii-nintendo-ds.html
 

Nairume

SaGa Sage
Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,904
"The sales in Europe were pretty good, but not as good as in the US. I'm sure there are many reasons for this. Top of the list is the fact that the European market seems to be even more controlled by retail than in the US. I get the impression that the DS is pushed harder as a platform for kids in the UK. Not by Nintendo, but by retail."

"Mature rated games on the Wii seem to do worse than on the DS. You have to develop where it makes sense financially. Would we love to make Dementium Wii? Absolutely! Will a publisher pay us to do that? Absolutely not!"

"Right now the future landscape for original titles on the DS does not look promising. Publishers are not willing to invest in original titles on the DS due to the general poor sales of original titles. I think Scribblenauts is one of the few Third Party original titles to sell well on the DS this year."

http://www.cubed3.com/news/13516/1/interview-renegade-kid-talks-dementium-ii-nintendo-ds.html
Not as good doesn't equal poor.

Also mind this interview was incredibly late in the DS's lifespan and was talking about the state of sales at that time.
 

Dr. Caroll

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
8,111
So basically, you're just grasping at straws? I remember Renegade Kid, do you? Do you even know that they closed down because the co-founders wanted to pursue different things professionally and personally? I find it hilarious that you're trying to pin that on Nintendo.
You seem awfully defensive of Nintendo for some reason. This has nothing to do with Nintendo. You also seem to ignore just how badly their games sold later on, which was a key factor in their demise.

Again, you're being extremely vague. Plenty of PS3 and Xbox 360 games sold poorly too, so did PS2 games, so the fuck what? EA just butchered Bioware Montreal because of how badly Mass Effect Andromeda bombed on PS4/XB1/PC, but I don't see you condemning Sony or Microsoft, not to mention they just killed Visceral Games after Dead Space 3, another flop that was a PS/XB game, bombed and their newest game wasn't looking too hot either. Not every game is going to be successful, nor should they, or do you disagree with that notion?
I don't think you understand the problem, TBH. Third party games, high profile games, quite consistently sold poorly on Wii and DS, as they did on the N64 and GC before it. And 3DS. This was offset by the games being lower budget, but it is a serious problem that first reared its head on the N64. Third party sales that are ridiculously low compared to the install base. There were more Wiis than PS3 or 360s, yet Wii versions of multiplats generally sold a tiny fraction of the other versions.

You really think publishers are going to fund AAA games for the Switch if they can't be sure people will actually buy them?

It's a problem with the audience. It doesn't matter if publishers support the platform if people aren't going to buy the games. Hopefully the Switch turns out differently to previous Nintendo consoles, but there is a huge elephant here you seem to want to wish away into non-existence.

Also mind this interview was incredibly late in the DS's lifespan and was talking about the state of sales at that time.
3DS sales were even worse, of course. but that was probably their poor luck to some extent.
 
Oct 27, 2017
2,766
"The sales in Europe were pretty good, but not as good as in the US. I'm sure there are many reasons for this. Top of the list is the fact that the European market seems to be even more controlled by retail than in the US. I get the impression that the DS is pushed harder as a platform for kids in the UK. Not by Nintendo, but by retail."

You do realize he was just talking about European sales you? He even said that the sales in Europe were actually pretty good all things considering.

"Mature rated games on the Wii seem to do worse than on the DS. You have to develop where it makes sense financially. Would we love to make Dementium Wii? Absolutely! Will a publisher pay us to do that? Absolutely not!"

This one was more about Wii sales, and has nothing to do with the DS at all.

"Right now the future landscape for original titles on the DS does not look promising. Publishers are not willing to invest in original titles on the DS due to the general poor sales of original titles. I think Scribblenauts is one of the few Third Party original titles to sell well on the DS this year."
I think this was just his personal opinion, based on relatively lower software sales late in the DS' life
 

Hero

One Winged Slayer
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
6,728
You seem awfully defensive of Nintendo for some reason. This has nothing to do with Nintendo. You also seem to ignore just how badly their games sold later on, which was a key factor in their demise.

You LITERALLY just blamed Nintendo's audience for the reason for Renegade Kid's closure, despite being wrong on that.

I don't think you understand the problem, TBH. Third party games, high profile games, quite consistently sold poorly on Wii and DS, as they did on the N64 and GC before it. And 3DS. This was offset by the games being lower budget, but it is a serious problem that first reared its head on the N64. Third party sales that are ridiculously low compared to the install base. There were more Wiis than PS3 or 360s, yet Wii versions of multiplats generally sold a tiny fraction of the other versions.

More vague statements. Please come to the discussion table with some actual, concrete facts to support your argument.
 

Dr. Caroll

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
8,111
You LITERALLY just blamed Nintendo's audience for the reason for Renegade Kid's closure, despite being wrong on that.

"2014 was not a great year for us. Moon Chronicles only sold OK, but we managed to squeeze Xeodrifter out before the year closed - which helped a lot. 2015 was maybe a little better, but was also incredibly insane."

"I think the writing has been on the wall for a while, but it is the sort of thing that you can easily ignore while you're busy making games. We started discussing the idea of ending Renegade Kid this year due to the financial challenges we faced last year [2015] and the ever-mounting challenges that we faced moving forward with the same structure."

http://www.nintendolife.com/news/20...ds_closure_and_whats_next_for_its_co-founders

Their 3DS game sales were really poor. That's the key factor in the company essentially being split in two.

More vague statements. Please come to the discussion table with some actual, concrete facts to support your argument.
With all due respect, you are the one in denial of the reality that over the past decade or so, 3rd party games have suffered serious problems selling on Nintendo platforms. You're the one without concrete facts. That publishers have become shy about releasing games on Nintendo platforms is well known. You refuse to acknowledge that problem. You're the one who doesn't have a concrete argument here. Just last month, the smash hit FIFA 18 sold a dismal 1% of its copies on the Nintendo Switch. You can handwave that away all you want. "UK has never been Nintendo's biggest market?" That's not at all helpful. What do you think EA is going to do if they release more Switch games and they keep selling poorly? Do you think they're going to make Switch exclusive games? Do you think they're going to port more games to Switch?

Again, we have to wait and see. How will Skyrim Switch sell? How will Wolfenstein II Switch sell? Pretending there isn't a historic problem here -- high number of consoles sold, but relatively poor 3rd party sales -- is just plain dumb. But it doesn't mean the Switch can't break with tradition.

You know what, though? Agree to disagree, okay? I don't like unpleasantness.
 
Last edited:
Oct 28, 2017
10,000
the question is "How can this be prevented?"

In general Unions, but the gaming industry isn't going to get them since the entry level is highly and easily replaceable. As for the issue with not being to grow/find Senior talent, simplest fix is increasing wages, give more and better benefits, and better and fair work-life balance for Senior talent only (wouldn't hold my breath though). Not saying applying this to all employees wouldn't be nice, but I don't expect it.
 

Hero

One Winged Slayer
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
6,728
"2014 was not a great year for us. Moon Chronicles only sold OK, but we managed to squeeze Xeodrifter out before the year closed - which helped a lot. 2015 was maybe a little better, but was also incredibly insane."

"I think the writing has been on the wall for a while, but it is the sort of thing that you can easily ignore while you're busy making games. We started discussing the idea of ending Renegade Kid this year due to the financial challenges we faced last year [2015] and the ever-mounting challenges that we faced moving forward with the same structure."

http://www.nintendolife.com/news/20...ds_closure_and_whats_next_for_its_co-founders

Their 3DS game sales were really poor. That's the key factor in the company essentially being split in two.


With all due respect, you are the one in denial of the reality that over the past decade or so, 3rd party games have suffered serious problems selling on Nintendo platforms. You're the one without concrete facts. That publishers have become shy about releasing games on Nintendo platforms is well known. You refuse to acknowledge that problem. You're the one who doesn't have a concrete argument here. Just last month, the smash hit FIFA 18 sold a dismal 1% of its copies on the Nintendo Switch. You can handwave that away all you want. "UK has never been Nintendo's biggest market?" That's not at all helpful. What do you think EA is going to do if they release more Switch games and they keep selling poorly? Do you think they're going to make Switch exclusive games? Do you think they're going to port more games to Switch?

Again, we have to wait and see. How will Skyrim Switch sell? How will Wolfenstein II Switch sell? Pretending there isn't a historic problem here -- high number of consoles sold, but relatively poor 3rd party sales -- is just plain dumb. But it doesn't mean the Switch can't break with tradition.

You know what, though? Agree to disagree, okay? I don't like unpleasantness.

Your entire attitude has been nothing but unpleasant. You cherrypick the seemingly most asinine examples and clutch onto them as the standards that everything else is going to follow uniformly. No where did I deny that some third parties have problems selling software on Nintendo systems in the past, but you can say that about any publisher on any system. You still haven't commented on the fact that EA has just closed two studios this year that produced games only on PS4/XB1 but I don't see you making the same claim that all third party games sell like shit on those systems.
 
Oct 28, 2017
1,972
AAA development might not be sustainable in its current form. But games themselves? Videogaming is a bigger industry than any other form of entertainment last I heard. Lots of players still making big profits.
This really only applies to the current powers entrenched in the system.

Its very hard for gaming companies to stay afloat in the current market

Renegade kid is actually a perfect example,

Production is getting centralized into a very small set of hands and they're responsible for nearly all growth in the industry. That is why you keep seeing heavy contraction and the trend towards never ending services (that more often than not are closed down in a year or two after launch)
 

Dr. Caroll

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
8,111
Your entire attitude has been nothing but unpleasant. You cherrypick the seemingly most asinine examples and clutch onto them as the standards that everything else is going to follow uniformly. No where did I deny that some third parties have problems selling software on Nintendo systems in the past, but you can say that about any publisher on any system. You still haven't commented on the fact that EA has just closed two studios this year that produced games only on PS4/XB1 but I don't see you making the same claim that all third party games sell like shit on those systems.
As I said, agree to disagree. However, as you're quite aware, third part games you know, actually sell on those platforms. Wii sales made up a tiny fraction of multiplat sales. Third part games, especially mature ones, struggle to sell on Nintendo's platforms and have done so for many, many years. Mass Effect: Andromeda sold millions of copies. Dev team was absorbed into another EA division. Visceral's last game sold millions of copies. The problem was not a lack of sales, per se, and I'm not sure why you're using them as examples here.

This originally started with the quote: "In battling for power, Nintendo was given a broad, uncontested market opportunity and are on their way towards dominating sales the next two years."

Nintendo are not on their way towards dominating sales at all. Maybe they will at some point in the future. Their first party games are selling a fraction -- albeit sometimes a decent fraction -- of what successful multiplats are selling. Their third party sales are historically weak outside specific series and genres, and at this point there is no firm evidence that is going to change. There is no possible way I can see to spin this into Nintendo dominating. At all. They're especially not going to be dominating with indie games which sell a fraction of what AAA games sell.

You act as though the observation that 3rd party sales on Nintendo platforms suck and have sucked for years is some kind of personal insult. It's not. It's just an observation backed up by game sales across the board. It doesn't matter whether Nintendo "dominates" or not, really.
 
Oct 26, 2017
9,827
Dr. Caroll

While your point holds true for a lot of Nintendo's home consoles, albeit bringing up that their 1st party titles don't sell as well as some of the bigger multiplats is a moot point as their games are tied to one platform as opposed to 3 and, even then, do actually outsell some multiplatform titles, just not your CoDs or Fifas, it's not quite the same for handhelds. Handhelds just in general don't sell a ton of games per user and, at the same time, don't require games to sell anywhere near as well as console games. Why else do you think the likes of the DS, PSP, 3DS, and even the Vita got 3rd party support, even late into their life? Most of the games made for those systems are games that are made relatively cheap compared to consoles
 

Dr. Caroll

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
8,111
Dr. Caroll

While your point holds true for a lot of Nintendo's home consoles, albeit bringing up that their 1st party titles don't sell as well as some of the bigger multiplats is a moot point as their games are tied to one platform as opposed to 3 and, even then, do actually outsell some multiplatform titles, just not your CoDs or Fifas, it's not quite the same for handhelds. Handhelds just in general don't sell a ton of games per user and, at the same time, don't require games to sell anywhere near as well as console games. Why else do you think the likes of the DS, PSP, 3DS, and even the Vita got 3rd party support, even late into their life? Most of the games made for those systems are games that are made relatively cheap compared to consoles
That is completely true. As for the second point, the handhelds become a dumping ground for low budget projects that were utterly hit and miss but loosely speaking low risk. But the Vita's support dried up tragically quickly, and possibly due to piracy the PSP's 70+ million install base wasn't reflected in sales. The PSP enjoyed GTA LCS/VCS as a significant driver of sales, for example, but it all fell apart somewhat rapidly.

I'm in no way saying the Switch is going to pull a Vita or anything. But it's in an awkward spot because it's a reasonably powerful bit of kit and it has been blessed by some very expensive Nintendo titles that have given people expectations far beyond what they had on the DS. Nintendo spared no expense with Breath of the Wild and Mario Odyssey. The problem this presents is that people do expect more. The Switch isn't exactly a traditional handheld. Audiences now expect a home console experience in a small package and the Wii/DS were propped up by a flood of low budget projects by small teams. It is true that the Switch is a potentially great audience for indie titles, which are suffering extremely poor sales on Steam/iOS/etc. The indie market is in real trouble, and Switch presents a great opportunity. However, there is a risk of saturation. This is what happened to the Wii and 3DS with digital games. Sales began to fall pretty hard because people were spoiled for choice.

Again, we just have to wait and see. FIFA selling terribly is a concerning sign. But it's going to take time for trends to become apparent. How will Bethesda Switch games sell? Suppose next year's Call of Duty gets a streamlined Switch port. Will audiences be convinced to buy it? The underpinning problem is that a huge install base doesn't necessarily translate to game sales. If third party sales are weak, publishers are going to be extremely conservative with their switch support. I think focusing on the high sales of hardware and high profile titles is quite misleading because Nintendo's problems lay elsewhere. The N64 had many titles that sold over a million copies. But third party sales got caught in a vicious cycle.
 

dpunk3

Member
Oct 27, 2017
376
Massachusetts, USA
Sterling has said multiple times unless the industry changes, the levels of distrust in the industry will end badly for everyone. I believe him, I'm never ready to line the wallets of any company nowadays, can't trust them for jack shit. I trust Intel and Nvidia more than I trust any AAA publisher.
 
Oct 26, 2017
9,827
That is completely true. As for the second point, the handhelds become a dumping ground for low budget projects that were utterly hit and miss but loosely speaking low risk. But the Vita's support dried up tragically quickly, and possibly due to piracy the PSP's 70+ million install base wasn't reflected in sales. The PSP enjoyed GTA LCS/VCS as a significant driver of sales, for example, but it all fell apart somewhat rapidly.

I'm in no way saying the Switch is going to pull a Vita or anything. But it's in an awkward spot because it's a reasonably powerful bit of kit and it has been blessed by some very expensive Nintendo titles that have given people expectations far beyond what they had on the DS. Nintendo spared no expense with Breath of the Wild and Mario Odyssey. The problem this presents is that people do expect more. The Switch isn't exactly a traditional handheld. Audiences now expect a home console experience in a small package and the Wii/DS were propped up by a flood of low budget projects by small teams. It is true that the Switch is a potentially great audience for indie titles, which are suffering extremely poor sales on Steam/iOS/etc. The indie market is in real trouble, and Switch presents a great opportunity. However, there is a risk of saturation. This is what happened to the Wii and 3DS with digital games. Sales began to fall pretty hard because people were spoiled for choice.

Again, we just have to wait and see. FIFA selling terribly is a concerning sign. But it's going to take time for trends to become apparent. How will Bethesda Switch games sell? Suppose next year's Call of Duty gets a streamlined Switch port. Will audiences be convinced to buy it? The underpinning problem is that a huge install base doesn't necessarily translate to game sales. If third party sales are weak, publishers are going to be extremely conservative with their switch support. I think focusing on the high sales of hardware and high profile titles is quite misleading because Nintendo's problems lay elsewhere. The N64 had many titles that sold over a million copies. But third party sales got caught in a vicious cycle.
Yeah, that is true. A lot of the games weren't exactly good or worthwhile and it showed. At the same time, however, they had a lot of hidden gems that wouldn't have been viable on consoles

That actually is a fair worry and one that I kind of have as well. With overall expectations being higher on the Switch, it does bring into question how viable traditional handheld games could be on the system. Something like Ace Attorney or Professor Layton can continue forward being lower budget and lower priced releases as they've built up a fanbase and are noted for their quality but other far more niche titles would likely struggle to stand out. I would hope that those kind of games can still get by being offering a low price to help it compete against the likes of Zelda, Mario, or even Rocket League. I'd really hate to see them go the way of the Dodo

You're not wrong here. However, at the same time, I think building up the audience for those games will take some time so I'd like to think publishers are more reasonable with their expectations for those games. That and games so far, for the most part, have been selling well, albeit a lot of them are smaller titles. I'm keeping my fingers crossed that those games sell enough to satisfy them and show that there's an audience for more than just Nintendo-esque titles
 

Aroll

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
133
You seem awfully defensive of Nintendo for some reason. This has nothing to do with Nintendo. You also seem to ignore just how badly their games sold later on, which was a key factor in their demise.


I don't think you understand the problem, TBH. Third party games, high profile games, quite consistently sold poorly on Wii and DS, as they did on the N64 and GC before it. And 3DS. This was offset by the games being lower budget, but it is a serious problem that first reared its head on the N64. Third party sales that are ridiculously low compared to the install base. There were more Wiis than PS3 or 360s, yet Wii versions of multiplats generally sold a tiny fraction of the other versions.

You really think publishers are going to fund AAA games for the Switch if they can't be sure people will actually buy them?

It's a problem with the audience. It doesn't matter if publishers support the platform if people aren't going to buy the games. Hopefully the Switch turns out differently to previous Nintendo consoles, but there is a huge elephant here you seem to want to wish away into non-existence.


3DS sales were even worse, of course. but that was probably their poor luck to some extent.

To be entirely fair, N64 is when third parties started to abandon Nintendo's platforms. Not entirely get, but it began the movement. Nintendo only encouraged the movement by not making changes to their policies, still using cartridges, then switching to mini disc's, then eventuslky releasing a platform so different and underpowered that while call of duty may move 1 million units, it felt like a gimped version of the game.

No doubt, Nintendo played a huge role in driving third parties away.

On Switch, I don't think the audience is the issue though. What may be id that the Switch is underpowered, so many people who own switch will just buy those games on other platforms. Switch is settling in well as a secondary or complimentary platform for existing gamers. Switch is, so far, targeting gamers, where as prior platforms were about expanding the audience to non gamers
.

Plenty of switch owners want those games, they just have platforms to. Play them. On where the game is. Just better.

If I turn, the games were made for Switch first with no advantage on other platforms, I think they would sell well, and maybe even be the lead platform.

LA noire will be telling if it's basically identical.

Right now, all Switch ports are gimped in one way or anothee.
 

Love Machine

Member
Oct 29, 2017
4,210
Tokyo, Japan
I sorta agree with him. The current strategy of squeezing more money out of a shrinking userbase works great in the short term (for a few players) but I can see it coming back to bite in the long term.
Which is why many studios (AAA or otherwise) have chosen not to adopt that strategy, and instead focus on establishing a solid brand (including user trust) and putting out quality content.
These are generally companies that have been around for a while, and who have adapted to the climate without necessarily jumping at the latest money-making fad.
They are the ones who will continue to adapt and grow, and they will be the ones to watch in the mid-long term.
 

Hero

One Winged Slayer
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
6,728
As I said, agree to disagree. However, as you're quite aware, third part games you know, actually sell on those platforms. Wii sales made up a tiny fraction of multiplat sales. Third part games, especially mature ones, struggle to sell on Nintendo's platforms and have done so for many, many years. Mass Effect: Andromeda sold millions of copies. Dev team was absorbed into another EA division. Visceral's last game sold millions of copies. The problem was not a lack of sales, per se, and I'm not sure why you're using them as examples here.

Here's the thing you don't seem to understand: Sales aren't everything, it's all about ROI. A Wii or DS game cost a fraction of what a PS3/360 cost, so games didn't need to sell as much to be profitable. Mass Effect may have sold millions of copies, but it wasn't enough for EA to consider it a successful game, and that is why the development team is butchered and scattered to their other teams. You say lack of sales wasn't a problem, when it absolutely was, and that's one point of Jason's article.

This originally started with the quote: "In battling for power, Nintendo was given a broad, uncontested market opportunity and are on their way towards dominating sales the next two years."

Nintendo are not on their way towards dominating sales at all. Maybe they will at some point in the future. Their first party games are selling a fraction -- albeit sometimes a decent fraction -- of what successful multiplats are selling. Their third party sales are historically weak outside specific series and genres, and at this point there is no firm evidence that is going to change. There is no possible way I can see to spin this into Nintendo dominating. At all. They're especially not going to be dominating with indie games which sell a fraction of what AAA games sell.

Nintendo first party games also cost a fraction of what a game like CoD or GTA V costs and still sell millions of copies.

You act as though the observation that 3rd party sales on Nintendo platforms suck and have sucked for years is some kind of personal insult. It's not. It's just an observation backed up by game sales across the board. It doesn't matter whether Nintendo "dominates" or not, really.

I'm not acting like it's a personal insult, I'm acting like you have no idea on what you're talking about, and the fact is you're the one that's getting called out by the forum's resident NPD analyst, not me.