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donny2112

Member
Oct 27, 2017
620
ITT, predict for the NPD July 2018 retail period (July 8-August 4, 2018) for U.S. hardware sales.

What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined by the National Retail Federation (find calendar links here).
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but SalesEra followers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.
Why are there still predictions when official NPD numbers are not released?
Trust me said:
To have fun? To share thoughts and speculation with a like mined group of people? To be able to communicate directly with individuals who study this industry for a living?
ethomaz said:
Since 2010 I guess we don't get official numbers anymore... that doesn't mean we don't get the numbers.

The ranking and results are based in real numbers.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, August 14th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: July 8-August 4, 2018 (4 weeks, June was 5 weeks)
NPD Physical Results Release: Thursday, August 16th @ 4 p.m. EDT (public thread with physical+digital posted 6 days later on August 22nd ~6:30 p.m. EDT)
Edit: Delayed a day for public release. Thanks for the heads up, MatP!

Format:

[NSW]
[PS4]
[XB1]

Good/Bad Formatting
Code:
Good              Bad
[XB1] 200K       [XB1] 200 thousand
[XB1] 200,000    [XB1] 200.000
[XB1] 200000     [XB1] - 200000


Potential hardware impacting events in July:
Doldrums of Summer

Prediction Format: (repeating to emphasize to use this format)

[NSW]
[PS4]
[XB1]

June's #1 Predictor (results not publicly available)
[NSW] 325K
[PS4] 375K
[XB1] 240K

June 2017 NPD thread
July 2017 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive
 
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Deleted member 5535

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
13,656
[NSW] 300K
[PS4] 270K
[XB1] 200K

I'll go with Switch this month. I don't think that there was a title for PS4 to be the first. But who knows, God of War still have great legs. Still, I'll bet in that way this month.
 

Elandyll

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
8,805
Mmmh. So afaik there weren't big discounts in July, and not much in sotware either outside maybe of Octopath?

[PS4] 280K
[NSW] 275K
[XB1] 180K
 
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Peek-a-boo!

Member
Oct 30, 2017
4,192
Woodbridge
[NSW] 260K
[PS4] 225K
[XB1] 144K

I know Expy's 'winning numbers' are not official however, seeing that rough estimate for the Xbox One in June, especially considering the Xbox One S was available for $199 all month, they are quite a bit lower than I had expected...

Makes the PlayStation 4 (and Switch) selling at $299 all the more impressive!
 
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MrTired

Member
Oct 28, 2017
3,229
Reserved for prediction.

[PS4] 240k
[XB1] 165k
[NSW] 235k
 
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Deleted member 249

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
28,828
Believe Benji said Switch would take this month, so I'll go with

[NSW] 290K
[PS4] 260K
[XB1] 160K
 
OP
OP

donny2112

Member
Oct 27, 2017
620
I know Expy's 'winning numbers' are not official however, seeing that rough estimate for the Xbox One in June, especially considering the Xbox One S was available for $199 all month, they are quite a bit lower than I had expected...

Those numbers would put XB1 up YOY by ~60%. That's phenomenal improvement relative to last year. Perspective. :)
 

Welfare

Prophet of Truth - You’re my Numberwall
Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,912
[NSW] 247K
[PS4] 201K
[XB1] 156K

Hello! This wall of numbers will be comparing the weekly average of June and July. This is when it is beneficial to compare weekly averages and not just simple month to month, because June is a 5 week month while July is only 4. I've also gathered software sales and potential hardware deals to explain any changes between July and June

Code:
2012

Xbox 360 June: 257K / 5 = 51,400
Xbox 360 July: 203K / 4 = 50,750

Weekly average down 1%

PS3 June: 188K / 5 = 37,600
PS3 July: 139K / 4 = 34,750

Weekly average down 8%

3DS June: 160K / 5 = 32,000
3DS July: 129K / 4 = 32,250

Weekly average up 1%

Notable Releases in July

Xbox 360
NCAA Football 13

PS3
NCAA Football 13

Code:
2013

Xbox 360 June: 140K / 5 = 28,000
Xbox 360 July: 107K / 4 = 26,750

Weekly average down 4%

PS3 June: 109K / 5 = 21,800
PS3 July: 79K / 4 = 19,750

Weekly average down 9%

3DS June: 225K / 5 = 45,000
3DS July: 150K / 4 = 37,500

Weekly average down 17%

Notable Releases in July

Xbox 360
NCAA Football 14

PS3
NCAA Football 14

Code:
2014

Xbox One June: 197K / 5 = 39,400
Xbox One July: 131K / 4 = 32,750

Weekly average down 17%

PS4 June: 269K / 5 = 53,800
PS4 July: 187K / 4 = 46,750

Weekly average down 13%

3DS June: 152K / 5 = 30,400
3DS July: 108K / 4 = 27,000

Weekly average down 11%

Xbox 360 June: 62K / 5 = 12,400
Xbox 360 July: 54K / 4 = 13,500

Weekly average up 9%

PS3 June: 42K / 5 = 8,400
PS3 July: 32K / 4 = 8,000

Weekly average down 5%

Notable Releases in July

PS4
The Last of Us Remastered [270K]

Code:
2015

Xbox One June: 296K / 5 = 59,200
Xbox One July: 188K / 4 = 47,000

Weekly average down 21%

PS4 June: 364K / 5 = 72,820
PS4 July: 217K / 4 = 54,250

Weekly average down 25%

3DS June: 124K / 5 = 24,800
3DS July: 110K / 4 = 27,500

Weekly average up 11%

Notable Releases in July

Xbox One
Amazon Prime Day July 15th

PS4
Amazon Prime Day July 15th

3DS
Amazon Prime Day July 15th

Code:
2016

Xbox One June: 212K / 5 = 42,378
Xbox One July: 171K / 4 = 42,781

Weekly average up 1%

PS4 June: 234K / 5 = 46,895
PS4 July: 161K / 4 = 40,300

Weekly average down 14%

3DS June: 132K / 5 = 26,400
3DS July: 189K / 4 = 47,250

Weekly average up 79%

Notable Releases in July

Xbox One
500GB and Kinect bundles price cut to $249 July 24th (1 week)

Amazon Prime Day July 12th

PS4
Amazon Prime Day July 12th

3DS
Amazon Prime Day July 12th

Pokemon GO effect

Monster Hunter Generations Metallic Blue New 3DS XL $199 [3 weeks]

Monster Hunter Generations [3 weeks]

Code:
2017

Xbox One June: 153K / 5 = 30,600
Xbox One July: ~123K / 4 = ~30,750 (There was a range of >119K and <127K)

Weekly average up ~0%

PS4 June: 381K / 5 = 76,200
PS4 July: 217K / 4 = 54,250

Weekly average down 29%

Notable Releases in July

Xbox One
Amazon Prime Day July 11th

PS4
Amazon Prime Day July 11th

Code:
2018 June Weekly Averages updated with worked out numbers from Liabe Brave https://www.resetera.com/posts/11278412/

PS4: ~377K / 5 weeks = ~75,400
Switch: ~323K / 5 weeks = ~64,600
Xbox One: ~256K / 5 weeks = ~51,200

Notable Releases in July

Switch
Amazon Prime Day July 16th - 17th - Switch + 64GB MicroSD + $20 eShop gift card $299

Octopath Traveler [4 weeks]
Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker [4 weeks]

Xbox One
Amazon Prime Day July 16th - 17th - Xbox One S 1TB Starter Bundle + Rare Replay $229

Notes:
While going from a 5 week month to a 4 week month, the weekly sales average also falls from June. The drop isn't normally massive, and very rarely will it ever increase from June. Depending on what released in June or July could lead to either massive drop, a small drop, or flat from June.

Recently, sales in summer are more concentrated in June now as PS4 and XB1 have larger drops going into July than last gen. On average from 2006 - 2013, 360 and PS3 saw their weekly average increase from June going to into July by +4% and +5% respectfully. This could be because NCAA Football no longer comes out which was a mid July release every year, but it looks like we have a replacement for that, Amazon Prime Day.

Amazon Prime Day has also grown into a massive event over the years and this year was on for an extra half a day. For example, this year's Prime Day boosted the Xbox One S 1TB Starter bundle from outside of the top 100 for the year all the way to the top 50. As of August 7, it is still in the top 50 and the #1 selling Xbox One SKU this year.

That point will also be given a test as this year, no PS4 SKU was on sale during Prime Day, the first time since Prime Day started in 2015. This is because Amazon just didn't officially sell the PS4 for a few months this year.

Xbox
The Xbox One hasn't had the greatest holds from June as 2014 had the $399 SKU launch and 2015 had the $399 1TB launch. July 2016 however had a price drop to $249 at the end of the month while also benefiting from the massive price cuts it received in mid June. June 2017 had a one week $249 deal on 500GB bundles but it had very little effect and because of this, it looks like Prime Day was able to keep the weekly average flat.

June 2018 had a ton of price promotions in the middle of the month leading to what looks like the second biggest June for the XB1 yet (2015 is #1 at 296K, 2016 #3 at 212K) so I wouldn't expect the weekly to be flat or up, but perhaps the drop won't be as big as it could be, like the drop from March to April this year which was -46%

The weekly average drop is -9% with the smallest rise being +1% (2016) and the largest drop being -21% (2015). Without 2016 and 2017, the average is -19%.

PlayStation
Similar to XB1, the drops for PS4 haven't been great. 2014 only had The Last of Us Remastered for a week, 2015 had the Batman bundles at the end of June so that would be why 2015 had a -25% drop. 2016 had nothing of note in either month besides Amazon Prime Day in July, and 2017 had the limited $249 1TB Gold PS4 in June.

2018 will probably follow 2017 but will have a larger drop. June had a $299 Days of Play SKU and a $349 PS4 Pro price cut for a couple of weeks and going into July, PS4 wasn't being sold by Amazon so it wasn't available for Prime Day. Momentum is also slower compared to 2017 this year going into July.

2017
May Weekly Average: 46,750
June Weekly Average: 76,200 (+63%)
July Weekly Average: 54,250 (-29%)

2018
May Weekly Average: 56,250
June Weekly Average: ~75,400 (~+34%)

June is down YOY (using calculations) and had a much lower bump in sales from May compared to 2017 (nearly half the bump in percentage). That and a lack of Prime Day sales could lead to a large drop off from June.

The weekly average drop is -20% with the smallest drop being -13% (2014) and the biggest drop being -29% (2017).

Nintendo
The 3DS averages a rise of +13% thanks to 2016. Without it, the 3DS averages a drop of - 4%, with the largest rise being +11% (2015) and the biggest drop being -17% (2013).

The Switch is looking to have a pretty good July. June results are fantastic and momentum is already confirmed to be strong from Nintendo in all major regions after E3. Switch also had a really good Prime Day presence this year, in addition to more software launches like Octopath Traveler and Captain Toad.

Recap
July is a slower month than June even if you account for the one less week the month has. Amazon Prime Day looks to be a good system mover for the month.

The biggest July ever recorded during the 7th gen was the Wii with 555K back in 2008. Second biggest? Xbox 360 with 444K back in 2011.

The biggest July ever recorded in the 8th gen is the PS4 with 217K in 2015 and 2017. Third biggest? Xbox One with 188K in 2015.
 
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Penny Royal

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
4,158
QLD, Australia
[NSW] 220K
[PS4] 230K
[XB1] 160K

PS4 to continue its winning run against comparably priced consoles as opposed to one that costs the same as a game lol
 
Oct 25, 2017
13,246
[NSW] 230K
[PS4] 245K
[XB1] 145K

I changed my mind and bet against the PS4 last month. So I'll give it the edge this month despite indications pointing otherwise.
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
A couple of quotes from Benji regarding Switch and Switch games in July made somewhere in July:
Soooo yeah

Switch really might own the summer.

To be honest I had a lot going on in my life in June and didnt really pay all that close attention to rankings.

But Switch not coming out on top for July would surprise me quite a bit

Like I said I was really busy with other things in June. I wasnt really all that focused on paying attention to hardware rankings. From what I see June will simply be another entry on the 2018 trend of "everyone did great"



Switch 1st party software continues to impress.

Octopath is the most impressive 3rd party game on the console since Mario and Rabbids imo (which still utilized Nintendo own IP)

I think amazon prime deals for XB1 were quite strong, too. I think one new SKU jumped from non-existence onto the 50th spot in the yearly amazon rankings.
 

gordofredito

Banned
Jan 16, 2018
2,992
Octopath killed it this July but for some reason, I just think PS4 can't be stopped by anything that isn't Pokemon or Smash
[NSW] 270K
[PS4] 300K
[XB1] 226K
 

Expy

Member
Oct 26, 2017
9,860
A lot of people have Switch over PS4, I'm not so sure that Octopath can really move units in that way in North America, I still think PS4 will take the month, but be a pretty much dead heat in August as a lot of PS4 purchases will be pre-orders that will only be registered in September (Spider-Man).
 

Deleted member 8136

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 26, 2017
1,004
A lot of people have Switch over PS4, I'm not so sure that Octopath can really move units in that way in North America, I still think PS4 will take the month, but be a pretty much dead heat in August as a lot of PS4 purchases will be pre-orders that will only be registered in September (Spider-Man).

I'm expecting more of a Fortnite push than Octopath having a big impact.
 

Skittzo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
41,037
I'm expecting more of a Fortnite push than Octopath having a big impact.

Benji seemed to suggest the Smash announcement had a bigger effect on sales than Fortnite:

I haven't seen a ton of evidence Fortnite itself is a major hardware driver for Switch, though there is of course some effect

Honestly more a boost from Smash announcement / people still getting it for games like Zelda and Mario than anything

I dunno about whether Smash pushed more consoles than Octopath but the addition of that overperforming probably can't hurt.
 

Benji

Self Requested Ban
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
8,114
Tbh I wouldn't take my Switch call for July as gospel. PS4 continues to overperform my expectations. Switch looked like it came out ahead in July on my end but that doesnt accountfor whooe market

I'm only here to help conversation. Doesnt mean everything I see is true to whole market
 
Oct 25, 2017
13,246
Tbh I wouldn't take my Switch call for July as gospel. PS4 continues to overperform my expectations. Switch looked like it came out ahead in July on my end but that doesnt accountfor whooe market

I'm only here to help conversation. Doesnt mean everything I see is true to whole market

Damn lol, just as I was about to change my prediction due to Smash direct hype.
 

Saint-14

Banned
Nov 2, 2017
14,477
Tbh I wouldn't take my Switch call for July as gospel. PS4 continues to overperform my expectations. Switch looked like it came out ahead in July on my end but that doesnt accountfor whooe market

I'm only here to help conversation. Doesnt mean everything I see is true to whole market
Benji someone thinks Spider-Man will sell 1-2 million max and needs a big bundles push to reach 5 million, what do you think about that? Lol
 

Benji

Self Requested Ban
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
8,114
Damn lol, just as I was about to change my prediction due to Smash direct hype.

I mean Switch is doing great, on my end it appeared to be leading hardware for July.

That said PS4 is still overperforming what I keep expecting meaning its getting some chunk of sales these current months from somewhere I dont have visibility on.

When I discuss things here its not meant to influence people predictions. Predict whatever your gut tells you. I only talk about the things I do to keep discussion lively because I care about the sales community
 
Oct 25, 2017
13,246
Well that would have influenced August NPD anyway.

Yea, I know. More of a joke.

I mean Switch is doing great, on my end it appeared to be leading hardware for July.

That said PS4 is still overperforming what I keep expecting meaning its getting some chunk of sales these current months from somewhere I dont have visibility on.

When I discuss things here its not meant to influence people predictions. Predict whatever your gut tells you. I only talk about the things I do to keep discussion lively because I care about the sales community

Hey, I always appreciate your input Benji!
 
Oct 25, 2017
11,039
I can see Switch winning July and August even.

As a mainly PS4 user, summer has been extremely dry. Lots of indie games, but no big AAA or AA games. And indies seem to sell best on Switch, so I could see that as a driver.

edit: What was SE thinking putting DQ11 in September.

I mean, MY GOD. July August is PERFECT.

I would literally buy anything at this point.
 

Saint-14

Banned
Nov 2, 2017
14,477
Yeah....if Spidey performs how its tracking then launch should be able to get at or near a million in its opening NPD

Thinking 2 million LT total WW is craaaaaaazy
I'm expecting an opening over a million, maybe I'm overstamating it but didn't Horizon do a million too? Or maybe it was near it, I feel like Spider-Man will easily do more than that.