Lol I must be super optimistic looking at the other predictions.
[NSW] 360K
[PS4] 270K
[XB1] 190K
Hey, it's that time of the month again! This wall of numbers will be comparing the weekly average of May and June. This is when it is beneficial to compare weekly averages and not just simple month to month, because June is a 5 week month while May is only 4. I've also gathered software sales and potential hardware deals to give a bigger scope of how and why June performs better than May.
Code:
2012
Xbox 360 May: 160K / 4 = 40,000
Xbox 360 June: 257K / 5 = 51,400
Weekly average +29%
PS3 May: 125K / 4 = 31,250
PS3 June: 188K / 5 = 37,600
Weekly average +20%
3DS May: 116K / 4 = 29,000
3DS June: 160K / 5 = 32,000
Weekly average +10%
Code:
2013
Xbox 360 May: 114K / 4 = 28,500
Xbox 360 June: 140K / 5 = 28,000
Weekly average -2%
PS3 May: 85K / 4 = 21,250
PS3 June: 109K / 5 = 21,800
Weekly average +3%
3DS May: 115K / 4 = 28,750
3DS June: 225K / 5 = 45,000
Weekly average +57%
Notable Releases in June
Xbox 360
Minecraft [5 weeks] [>350k]
PS3
The Last of Us [4 weeks] [985K]
3DS
Animal Crossing: New Leaf XL $219 [4 weeks]
Animal Crossing: New Leaf [4 weeks] [505K with digital]
Code:
2014
Xbox One May: 77K / 4 = 19,250
Xbox One June: 197K / 5 = 39,400
Weekly average +105%
PS4 May: 197K / 4 = 49,250
PS4 June: 269K / 5 = 53,800
Weekly average +9%
3DS May: 97K / 4 = 24,250
3DS June: 152K / 5 = 30,400
Weekly average +25%
Xbox 360 May: 57K / 4 = 14,250
Xbox 360 June: 62K / 5 = 12,400
Weekly average -13%
PS3 May: 36K / 4 = 9,000
PS3 June: 42K / 5 = 8,400
Weekly average -7%
Notable Releases in June
Xbox One
Kinectless SKU $399 [4 weeks] [108k]
EA Sports UFC [3 weeks] [118K]
PS4
EA Sports UFC [3 weeks] [160K]
3DS
Sea Green 2DS $129 [5 weeks]
Code:
2015
Xbox One May: 140K / 4 = 35,000
Xbox One June: 296K / 5 = 59,200
Weekly average +69%
PS4 May: 153K / 4 = 38,250
PS4 June: 364K / 5 = 72,800
Weekly average +90%
3DS May: 97K / 4 = 24,250
3DS June: 124K / 5 = 24,800
Weekly average + 2%
Notable Releases in June
Xbox One
Halo: The Master Chief Collection 1TB bundle $399 [3 weeks] (Debut week (week 3 of June) drove sales +79% from week 2)
Best Buy Deal - Trade in Last Gen console and get $175 towards Xbox One [1 week]
Batman Arkham Knight [2 weeks]
1 free game with an Xbox One purchase [Batman launch week]
PS4
Best Buy Deal - Trade in Last Gen console and get $175 towards PS4 [1 week]
Batman: Arkham Knight 500GB Limited Bundle $449 [2 weeks] [121K]
Batman: Arkham Knight 500GB Bundle $399 [2 weeks]
Batman Arkham Knight [2 weeks]
Code:
2016
Xbox One May: 107K / 4 = 26,750
Xbox One June: 212K / 5 = 42,400
Weekly average +59%
PS4 May: 207K / 4 = 51,750
PS4 June: 234K / 5 = 46,800
Weekly average -10%
3DS May: 77K / 4 = 19,250
3DS June: 132K / 5 = 26,400
Weekly average +37%
Notable Releases in June
Xbox One
500GB bundles $299 (May 31 - June 13) [2 weeks]
1TB bundles $369 (May 31 - June 13) [2 weeks]
500GB and Kinect bundles $279 (June 14 - July 10 - 19 days in June NPD) [3 weeks]
1TB bundles $299 (June 14 - July 10 - 19 days in June NPD) [3 weeks]
Elite bundle $349 (June 14 - July 10 - 19 days in June NPD) [3 weeks]
3DS
Kirby: Planet Robobot [4 weeks]
Code:
2017
Xbox One May: 109K / 4 = 27,250
Xbox One June: 153K / 5 = 30,600
Weekly average +12%
PS4 May: 187K / 4 = 46,750
PS4 June: 381K / 5 = 76,200
Weekly average +63%
Notable Events in June
Xbox One
Xbox One X $499 announced for November 7
$50 price drop on select bundles / multiple $249 bundles | June 11 - June 17 (7 days)
PS4
Gold 1TB PS4 $249 June 9 - June 17 (9 days) Price raise to $299 June 18
Crash Bandicoot N. Sane Trilogy [1 week]
Code:
2018
Switch May: 165K / 4 = 41,250
Switch June: 323K / 5 = 64,600
Weekly average +57%
Xbox One May: 109K / 4 = 36,250
Xbox One June: 153K / 5 = 51,200
Weekly average +41%
PS4 May: 187K / 4 = 56,250
PS4 June: 381K / 5 = 75,400
Weekly average +34%
Notable Events in June
Switch
Gamestop Deal - Trade in XB1S or PS4 and get $250 towards Switch Offer valid 6/12/18 - 6/17/18
Fortnite Battle Royal [4 weeks]
Mario Tennis Aces [3 weeks]
Crash Bandicoot N. Sane Trilogy [2 weeks]
Xbox One
Xbox One S 500GB $199 (June 10th - 30th) [3 weeks]
Xbox One S 1TB $249 / Xbox One X 1TB $449 (June 10th - 23rd) [2 weeks]
PUBG with every Xbox One X (June 24 - July 7) [2 weeks]
PUBG Xbox One X 1TB Bundle $499 [1 week]
GameStop Deal - Xbox One 1TB (S and X) with $50 gift card (July 2 - July 9 / 6 days in June NPD)
Crash Bandicoot N. Sane Trilogy [2 weeks]
The Crew 2 [2 weeks]
PS4
PS4 1TB Days of Play Blue Limited Edition $299 [5 weeks]
PS4 Pro $349 (June 8th - 18th)
The Crew 2 [2 weeks]
Code:
2019 May Weekly Average
Switch: 216K / 4 = 54,000
PS4: 137K / 4 = 34,250
Xbox One: 86K / 4 = 21,500
Notable Events in June
Switch
Crash Team Racing - Nitro Fueled [3 weeks]
Super Mario Maker 2 [2 weeks]
Xbox One
Xbox One X $449 / Xbox One S $249 / Xbox One SAD $199 [June 7 - 23]
Purple Xbox One S Fortnite 1TB Bundle $299 ($249 during price cut) [5 weeks]
Fallout 76 Xbox One X Bundle price increased to $499 July 1st [1 week]
Crash Team Racing - Nitro Fueled [3 weeks]
PS4
PS4 1TB Days of Play Steel Black Limited Edition $299 [5 weeks]
PS4 Pro $349 [June 7 - 17]
Crash Team Racing - Nitro Fueled [3 weeks]
Notes
It's summer time here in the US. School's out at this point and the weekly sales average looks to naturally increase from May.
Xbox
The Xbox One has had massive hardware impacting events every June, with the Kinectless SKU in 2014, 1TB model in 2015, a full month of price drops in 2016, one week price drop in 2017 (which was weakened by the wait for the One X like all of 2017), and the lowest price cuts to the One S and first price cut for the One X in 2018.
June 2019 looks to be attempting the success of the 2018 price cuts by going back down to similar prices while also introducing a new limited One S bundle with Fortnite. This is the first One S limited bundle since November 2016. Why it took so long is a mystery but it should help sales on its own. The price cuts however most likely will not have the same moving power as last year since it is the same deal. Repeat deals have diminishing returns on sales.
I should mention though that what I'm referring to above is total sales increase, not weekly average. Because the XB1 in May sold just 86K, the weekly average can increase by 100% and still be far away from 2018. Just look to the January to February 2019 increase. A massive +122%, but that was from 101K to 225K.
The weekly average rise is +57% with the smallest rise being +12% (2017) and the biggest being +105% (2014).
PlayStation
The PS4 did not have the type of deals in June like XB1 until 2017 with the start of Days of Play. June 2014 was normal coming off the Watch Dogs launch in late May while having plenty of supply. June 2015 had the very successful Batman bundles towards the end of the month, June 2016 had nothing and was coming off of the Uncharted 4 launch in May causing the weekly average fell. 2017 introduced a 1TB Gold slim at a discounted $249 for a limited time (Normal price was $299), 2018 had another Days of Play promotion and introduced a $299 Blue 1TB slim along with a price cut for the PS4 Pro to $349 for 10 days.
2019 has the same offer as 2018, a $299 Slim and a $50 price cut to Pro for 10 days. Like how I explained with the XB1, don't expect the same type of sales from a repeat deal. Weekly average can go up 100%, but that's because the starting number is now pretty low.
The weekly average rise is +37% with the only drop being -9% (2016) and the biggest rise being +90% (2015). Remove 2016 and the average rise is +49%
Nintendo
The 3DS averages an increase of +26%, with the smallest rise being +2% (2015) and the biggest rise being +57% (2013).
The Switch will have a very tough comp this year thanks to 2018 having the launch of Fortnite Battle Royal and Mario Tennis Aces, along with a massive trade in promotion at GameStop where you could get $250 off a new Switch, where sales doubled at GameStop that week.
Mario Maker 2 is the first massive release for the console this year, in a year where Switch easily sells over 50K a week in the dead of May, so sales could explode from the combination of Summer and MM2, but MM2 will have just 2 weeks and should be considered more evergreen than front loaded, so the initial impact might be more subdued but might keep sales steady going into July.
Recap
June is a better month than May in both absolute number and weekly average. Sales, promotions, and large game releases will of course improve that.
The biggest June ever recorded between the 7th gen was the Wii with 667K back in 2008. Second biggest? Xbox 360 with 507k back in 2011.
The biggest June ever recorded in the 8th gen is the PS4 with 381K in 2017. Second biggest? PS4 again with 377K in 2018.
