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Drek

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,231
Don't know why I need to say this again: 2016 was not a brokered convention. Sanders released his delegates before voting started.
He ceased the process after the first round of state vote tabulations if I recall. Its the same process Clinton used, minus him explicitly saying "by acclimation" after requesting the nomination of Clinton.

Sanders was wrong in 2016 about the delegates and he's right in 2020 about the delegates. And I'm sure beyond a shadow of a doubt that having the lead he currently has makes saying the right thing waaaaaaay easier. It's super convenient. But it's still the right thing. And everyone else running is wrong in the present. I really don't understand why some people are so hyper focused on debating whether or not it's an issue that Sanders changed his mind in the race that he's currently leading. It's fruitless, especially since the question never came up until now anyway. Why that and not the fact that we just had all but one primary candidate say the person with the most delegates (and based on how that math would work out: the most votes by American citizens) shouldn't necessarily be the candidate? That's insane to me. So insane that even Chris Matthews had to pump the brakes and acknowledge that it really sounded like 5 primary candidates just admitted they've probably lost and still think the rules should allow them a chance to be gifted the nomination.
So why is it the right thing?

The point of a primary isn't to hold a pre-election before the real election. The point of a primary is for the Democratic Party to pick its nominee for President. That process doesn't call for it to representational to everyone who voted. Its explicitly supposed to pick the person that Dems believe is most likely to win.

If a candidate had a slightly plurality in votes during the process but did so by stacking up big numbers is a handful of large states while another candidate was more generally competitive across the nation an argument could easily be made that the later is more electable in the general for example, and as such the process is designed to choose them.

If the primary instead used an alternative format where any state lost or won by less than 3% (typical national polling average margin of error) received 50% more delegates that, unlike a similar slant in the general election, would be entirely sensible because the winner of those states would logically be the most likely to flip them in the general and therefore win the election.

The primary isn't supposed to be a fair democratic process. Its supposed to be a vetting of eligible candidates and a chance for the Democratic party at large to make their preferences known. The lack of ranked choice and similar features for a process that has the potential to field six candidates into Super Tuesday underscores that its not meant to be a truly democratic process. We're going to have 10's to 100's of thousands of people vote for candidates who won't make it to June still in the race, let alone to the convention.

So while the process of the primary is flawed and, given the increasing polarity in our political system, should probably be a more democratic system, that is not what it is designed as, what it is intended to be, or what anyone running signed up for when this whole thing started. Ergo the fair and right thing is to continue the process exactly as designed an intended. You don't change the rules of a game mid-stream just because there is a slightly plurality in the sport for one team to win.

The real problem here that is going to haunt the DNC up to the convention if they don't wake up soon is that this process, if ran to its intent, is likely going to pick Sanders. He's now the strongest candidate in head to head national polling against Trump. Prior to passing Biden in that metric he was a close second in the swing states, so is presumably now first by a most likely to win swing states map. He is the strongest fundraiser in the group without needing special interests or billionaires propping him up.

The answers given by the candidates are the answers they should be giving. One would assume that they all believe they're the most likely to beat Trump and the most likely to be a capable POTUS, if not why are they even in it? Its not for them to invalidate their candidacy before we even get to Super Tuesday.

It is the DNC's responsibility to manage their super delegates such that they pick the candidate most likely to win, should there not be a majority winner selected in the primary process.

I don't think Bernie had a good performance.
He had a better performance than anyone except Warren and arguably Biden.

Warren stole the show in that she showed up ready to fight everyone, but especially Mike Bloomberg.

Biden looked far more engaged and cogent than he has in recent debates and had no major gaffes, so he looked far better than normal.

Sanders, in the first debate since becoming the clear front runner, took no major hits, had no real gaffes, and left the debate looking like one of only three candidates with national viability. The other two being Warren and Biden. Current polling has Bloomberg listed as being nationally viable, but his debate performance, late entry, and non-stop drip feed of past fuckery is going to catch up with him in the next round of polls I'd suspect.

Biden needs a surge as his state polling is sliding and his ground game has underproduced polls repeatedly.

Warren lives on the line of viability in most states. She needs this to be a bump and she needs her ground game to improve. Not Biden level, but she needs to actually meet or beat some state polls in actual results.

Sanders is the only candidate who wins by simply staying the course while the moderate wing continues to fight, so when the best the other candidates can throw at him as the new leader is what we saw last night that is an unmitigated win for him.

The fact of the matter is that Warren is the only truly good debater in the field. Biden used to be, but that guy hasn't been seen since 2012. Warren is the smartest, most fact engaged candidate. Bernie is probably #2. Thats an indictment of Klobuchar as a past prosecutor more than anyone else.

At this point the only person withg the chops to cut Sanders in a debate is Warren and it was pretty clear last night that she's willing to cut everyone but Sanders and Biden. That will probably hurt her ultimate chances, but she's clearly unwilling to get in the mud with the two most likely nominees.
 

IMCaprica

Member
Aug 1, 2019
9,430
It is the DNC's responsibility to manage their super delegates such that they pick the candidate most likely to win, should there not be a majority winner selected in the primary process.
And this is why he's right and they're wrong. Because there's no scenario in which choosing someone who did worse than first place that will lead to defeating Trump and the republicans.
 

JJH

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
2,881
There's no way Bloomberg shows up to the next debate if he doesn't need to, right? He got treated like a young black man did during his time as mayor
 

Drek

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,231
And this is why he's right and they're wrong. Because there's no scenario in which choosing someone who did worse than first place that will lead to defeating Trump and the republicans.
Well in the post you responded to I clearly pointed out exactly how that could happen, and there are numerous other scenarios, some pretty damn likely.

The 2020 election is going to be decided based on who can win Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Florida, Nevada, and Arizona. Maybe Minnesota, Georgia, Iowa, and Nebraska could be converted into a swing with just the right campaign.

So if the Dem primary sees one candidate dominate in the biggest non-swing states, i.e. big wins in California, Texas, and New York, you could easily produce an outcome where the candidate with the most delegates is less likely to win as they aren't going to flip Texas and the GOP isn't going to flip California or New York.

The candidate needs to be the cross tabulation of strongest nationally while also being the strongest in the key swing states, especially biased towards the lean blues of MI, WI, MN, PA, NC, and NV, where the optimal candidate should push many from lean blue to likely blue.

If the DNC really had its head on right this would be a further cross sectional analysis of who most drives turnout from under-performing groups present within the swing states specifically.

The strong Hispanic support Sanders sees for example probably makes him the most qualified candidate to keep NV blue and possibly flip AZ.

Biden has always been a strong candidate in past primaries and polled well in PA, I doubt that'll change to give another.

States like NC and GA that hare seeing population growth tied directly to urban center growth, and therefore largely <40 voters, are going to need a candidate who can reach young voters. Simultaneously both are in the south so the candidate needs to appeal to black voters as well.

This is the point of the primary - to run state after state to see how candidates organize a ground game, get the vote out, and then to analyze the data on who presents the best total package to beat the opposition.

The only difference this time is that a small section of Sanders' audience vocally oppose any non-Sanders candidates and are using the slight delegate plurality he's currently projected to have at the end as justification for it, while a larger section of moderates supporting a variety of other candidates express "concern" about the elect-ability of the most popular candidate, Sanders, despite his success so far and without objectively looking at current polling data or waiting for the actual primary results. Because the former doesn't support their argument and so far the trend is that the later is going to be even less kind to it.

Its a serious party rift in which the left is saying "this is a big fucking rift and I'm sick of having to be the one to jump across it every four years!" while the other side keeps saying "I just don't see how any reasonable person would want to cross this big rift! You all need to get over here before its too late!"
 

SneakersSO

Banned
Oct 24, 2017
1,353
North America
"anyone but ____" is such a toxic attitude. Fuck that.



"Bernie's never made a payroll; Warren's never made a payroll"

GOD - I love that the shroud of corporate worship is finally beginning to fall off the American public - Bloomberg never did this either! Like Bernie said last night - his workers have somethign to do with how he made all his money. We put so much emphasis on these big Billionaire names and forget that all of their wealth is thanks to the efforts of those beneath them.
 

deathsaber

Member
Nov 2, 2017
3,098
I don't think Bernie had a good performance. For people who like him already or made up their mind already it probably didn't matter but I don't think he won anyone over with his performacne. There's a fine line between being passionate and coming off like an angry, yelling, old man. And I fear he crossed that line today. He is sooo good at these town halls and at his rallies where he is way calmer and gets his message across in a sophisticated way. But this time he was wayy too pissed, too angry and his head looked like it was about to explode at times. He also pivoted back to his stump speeches way too often instead of answering a question in a specific manner. I think most undecideds were watching him and going "Why is this guy so angry and yelling all the time?", "ugh again this speech?" He can do much better.

The very first question is the best example and shows exactly why Warren did so well compared to him. He could have hammered Mike down on his electibility issues and on his past but instead he pivoted back to his "How can it be that we are the only country...." that people have heard a thousand times. Then Warren stepped in, attacked Bloomberg directly and stole all the spotlight.

He also needs to drop that Russian Bot stuff

Like I don't think this debate hurt him at all but he won't gain any new supporters with this performance. But still, being the frontrunner and getting away rather unscathed is just as valuable

I largely agree. I really just don't like how he carries himself. I just have enough of Bernies pissed off looks while throwing up hands. Happens way too much.

I think there was tough to find any BIG winners last night, but I think if anyone improved their standing last night, it was Warren. She had the best zings, stuck it to Bloomberg hard from the start, comes off as a much more measured and likable proponent of Liberal politics, seems less of a bully (despite all her zings), she just had a strength last night which has lacked before.

Buttigieg did ok, mostly looked measured and smart, but I don't think he really changes his standing here as 2nd, possibly 3rd place person here

Klobuchar I think is soon done after his. She got exposed, seemed completely unprepared and surprised by the critiques sent her way, and did not have good follow ups, or has any real positions on anything that make her stand out (other than, 'hey, why not vote for a woman', which ok...cute... but not enough to get a nomination)

Biden didn't harm himself- just seemed happy to not be a target this time around, but I don't think anything was done to really elevate him past his 4th place position. He of course is sitting an waiting for super Tuesday to see if his minority support comes through that has yet to be seen in the current primaries, and that will come into play a lot (whether they continue to support him, or if they will have moved elsewhere)

After this debates, in terms of how they will do in in upcoming polls, I think you'll see:

1. Sanders (still in the lead but not as big of lead as before, could be getting fairly close)
2 & 3. Buttigieg and Warren- I think they could be interchangeable after last night, will be interesting to see. As I said before, I don't think Buttigieg harmed himself last night, but how much will Warren rise (she might see the rub Klobuchar got last debate and be a player again )
4. Biden- about the same as before. (he's toast in Nevada, but lets see how Super Tuesday plays out)
5. Bloomberg- He will really fall after this. though will retain a certain percentage due to all the adds- maybe could be interchangeable with Biden here
6. Klobuchar- she's done- peaked last debate, as people started to pay attention a little but its just clear now all other names are bigger, and she don't have strong enough positions to truly stand out, other than a witty retort here and there.
 

HipsterMorty

alt account
Banned
Jan 25, 2020
901
Pete trying to make hay of toxic online supporters was a bs move. Can't wait to see him get wrecked on Saturday.
 

Dude Abides

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
2,382
The 2020 election is going to be decided based on who can win Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Florida, Nevada, and Arizona. Maybe Minnesota, Georgia, Iowa, and Nebraska could be converted into a swing with just the right campaign.

So if the Dem primary sees one candidate dominate in the biggest non-swing states, i.e. big wins in California, Texas, and New York, you could easily produce an outcome where the candidate with the most delegates is less likely to win as they aren't going to flip Texas and the GOP isn't going to flip California or New York.

It's foolish to extrapolate performance in a state during the primary to performance in that state during the general. I thought we all learned this in 2008.
 

Deleted member 16365

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
4,127
"anyone but ____" is such a toxic attitude. Fuck that.



So this guy is a piece of shit, but let's talk for a second about the sense of dunking on "the DNC". This is why people are such detractors of Sanders and his followers. Is he not a member of this party? Aren't his members too? If not they probably shouldn't be voting in DNC primaries.

Ruhle herself in this clip tried to point out that this guy was out of touch but the whole clip has to be angled as if an entire political party is "shook"? This is versus them thing is what turns to many people off to Sanders and why his supporters get such a bad rep.
 

Draper

The Fallen
Oct 28, 2017
4,283
Harrisburg, PA
Is the anti-fracking stance a real deal breaker for people there?

Y'know, I've never once heard anyone bring it up, but I live in Harrisburg, which is arguably pretty liberal. Despite that fact, people still defend Trump around here regardless of what he does. It's puzzling.

PA is always like that, though. It's Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, then the rest of the state is Kentucky. PA is definitely winnable. Obama won it twice.

I know, but Trump is a different breed- he brings out the Pennsyltuckians in droves around here. He routinely visits the PA Farm Show Complex that I live close by to. It's fucking insane.
 

Drek

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,231
It's foolish to extrapolate performance in a state during the primary to performance in that state during the general. I thought we all learned this in 2008.
Anyone who took that message away from 2008 (or 2016) is likely ascribing things to the primary that simply aren't there.

Winning a state during a primary just says that you're the best candidate, within your field, to get your base out to vote in that state come the general. As swing voters are increasingly a fallacy the center tells itself to sleep at night that is what matters in the general.

In '16 people acted like Clinton's strong performance in some big southern states gave her a real shot to win them, namely Georgia. All that performance actually said was that she was likely to outperform Bernie Sanders in those states during a general.

There are two big failures in data analysis that happen with election politics:
1. prognostication and projection based on small sample polling in general, unreliable polls specifically, to make sweeping conclusions before a single vote has been cast.
2. the over-analysis of primary results and similar to manufacture a narrative.

Its a cottage industry within political consulting firms and so has morphed into the embodiment of statistics being able to tell you whatever you want to hear. Organizations like the DNC, if they're truly about winning elections, need to stop engineering their statistics to get the desired result and instead look at the broader cross tabs of reliable data.

To put it in a simple example: right now Biden polls better in Michigan than Sanders. So did Clinton in '16 for much of the primary. The primary broke heavily to Sanders.

If we get to Michigan and Biden under-performs his polls, Sanders over-performs his, Sanders wins, and its part of an ongoing trendline of Biden's support in the state waning while Sanders' rises it doesn't take much real math to see that Sanders is the strongest GE candidate for winning Michigan.

A second example: if Sanders wins Texas as the only viable candidate and takes over 200 delegates for himself, with prior polling and exit polling showing a massive lead with Hispanic voters as the driving force, that shouldn't be taken as "Sanders could flip Texas/is the most likely to flip Texas". That isn't going to happen for probably another 8 years at best.

Now if he wins Texas in that way, has similar support metrics in Nevada, New Mexico, and Arizona, also winning or very close to winning those states, its an easy statistical argument that Sanders is the strongest Hispanic vote driver and therefore deserves additional consideration if the map requires someone who can hold NV and win AZ.

And a third: Biden in the south. If he's by far the strongest candidate with black voters in the south it reasons that he is the one most able to drive the black voter turnout needed to win a state like NC and maybe flip Georgia (long shot). Thats been his narrative all along. We'll find out in about a week with the SC primary if he's held that "firewall" of his, though most polling show it slipping and his ground game has been poor everywhere else.
 

neon/drifter

Shit Shoe Wasp Smasher
Member
Apr 3, 2018
4,062
Anyone else hate the whole "but he's not even a Democrat" thing?

It's just a fucking color, title, moniker. His policies are what the Democratic party pretends to be only Bernie actually means what he says.

He could be from the galgalon party and I wouldn't give a fuck. Fuck your party allegiance and get the message, the Democratic party needs to transform in this direction.

If not, then alright that's just how it goes. But this is what I feel and want.
 

Deleted member 2145

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
29,223
Anyone else hate the whole "but he's not even a Democrat" thing?

It's just a fucking color, title, moniker. His policies are what the Democratic party pretends to be only Bernie actually means what he says.

He could be from the galgalon party and I wouldn't give a fuck. Fuck your party allegiance and get the message, the Democratic party needs to transform in this direction.

If not, then alright that's just how it goes. But this is what I feel and want.

people doing the Bernie isn't a Democrat thing is a condemnation on the Democratic party not Bernie
 

Sanjuro

Member
Oct 25, 2017
31,052
Massachusetts
I had just about zero interest in watching this last evening.

...watching some of the cherry-picked Warren/Bloomberg Twitter posts this morning.

daf.jpg
 

RDreamer

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,106
Anyone else hate the whole "but he's not even a Democrat" thing?

It's just a fucking color, title, moniker. His policies are what the Democratic party pretends to be only Bernie actually means what he says.

He could be from the galgalon party and I wouldn't give a fuck. Fuck your party allegiance and get the message, the Democratic party needs to transform in this direction.

If not, then alright that's just how it goes. But this is what I feel and want.
I want the Democrats to go more that way as well but it's definitely not just a moniker. It's a coalition of people he needs to do literally anything. And it's not just him, it's how things get done locally, too. The top of the ticket can help or hurt that, which can really affect communities.
 

Draper

The Fallen
Oct 28, 2017
4,283
Harrisburg, PA
how did we get to this place?

It didn't seem that long ago that Pa get's called for Democrats like an hour after the polls closed. Why is it so deep red now? :/

I would presume it's an uprising/ backlash due to conservative media outlets convincing them that the black man betrayed them. That, and it seems the more criticized the current president is, the more protective of their man-child they become. Like a mother bird protecting its flightless baby.
 

Drek

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,231
Y'know, I've never once heard anyone bring it up, but I live in Harrisburg, which is arguably pretty liberal. Despite that fact, people still defend Trump around here regardless of what he does. It's puzzling.



I know, but Trump is a different breed- he brings out the Pennsyltuckians in droves around here. He routinely visits the PA Farm Show Complex that I live close by to. It's fucking insane.
Obama's famous "guns and religion" remarks were made in PA specifically about Pennsyltuckians. Obama's 2012 turnout was 20,000 more than Trump's and almost 70,000 more than Clinton's. In 2008 Obama won by more than 10 points.

Like, winning PA isn't even 2008 Obama levels, its just 2012 Obama levels. 2016 was peak engagement for the right. Even if they maintain that level (which is unlikely based on '18 midterms and current polling, though the impeachment acquittal seems to have helped) a Dem who gets urban and suburban voters to turn out at '12 levels would probably win the state.

Hell, if the Green/Other/Libertarian segments voted Dem at the ratios they likely did prior to 2016 we wouldn't be having this conversation and we'd be talking about how President Clinton is part of a tradition of making PA reliably blue.
 

Draper

The Fallen
Oct 28, 2017
4,283
Harrisburg, PA
Obama's famous "guns and religion" remarks were made in PA specifically about Pennsyltuckians. Obama's 2012 turnout was 20,000 more than Trump's and almost 70,000 more than Clinton's. In 2008 Obama won by more than 10 points.

Like, winning PA isn't even 2008 Obama levels, its just 2012 Obama levels. 2016 was peak engagement for the right. Even if they maintain that level (which is unlikely based on '18 midterms and current polling, though the impeachment acquittal seems to have helped) a Dem who gets urban and suburban voters to turn out at '12 levels would probably win the state.

Hell, if the Green/Other/Libertarian segments voted Dem at the ratios they likely did prior to 2016 we wouldn't be having this conversation and we'd be talking about how President Clinton is part of a tradition of making PA reliably blue.

All fair points. And I know my window of insight is anecdotal, so I pray we can flip it.
 

Drek

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,231
how did we get to this place?

It didn't seem that long ago that Pa get's called for Democrats like an hour after the polls closed. Why is it so deep red now? :/
It isn't.

It has a Dem governor, the federal congresspeople are split 9-9 currently, as is its two senate seats (thank Bloomberg for propping up Toomey) and the state house is 109-92 R-D. This after the GOP had a far better ground game in the state post-2008. It is also one of the most heavily gerrymandered states in the country. There are some economic drivers in SW PA that favors candidates open to continued fracking, but peak Dem engagement is reliably higher than peak GOP engagement for a few decades now.
 

Deleted member 31923

User requested account closure
Banned
Nov 8, 2017
5,826
how did we get to this place?

It didn't seem that long ago that Pa get's called for Democrats like an hour after the polls closed. Why is it so deep red now? :/

PA is not deep red. Trump won it by less than a percent and they just reelected their Democratic governor in 2018. Republicans run the statehouse still, but it's pretty close. The state I live in, Ohio, is going deep red and seems to be lost already in the 2020 election, but there is still hope for PA. And there had better be, Democrats have close to zero percent chance of winning the 2020 election without it.
 

Deleted member 31923

User requested account closure
Banned
Nov 8, 2017
5,826
I live in Pa

A dem aint swinging this place

I disagree. You have a Democratic governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, and one Democratic Senator. Trump won there by only about 50k votes, and he was the first Republican to win there since 1988. Here in Ohio, we have one Democratic Senator and that's it. We are a lost cause. The right democratic candidate can win PA, and the election depends on it.
 

Josh5890

I'm Your Favorite Poster's Favorite Poster
The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
23,211
Hopefully Pennsylvania's primary at the end of April will give us an idea of how electable Sanders is in that state.
 

Christian

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,636
After the four years we've had, we'd truly be gifted manna if either Sanders or Warren pulls it
Y'know, I've never once heard anyone bring it up, but I live in Harrisburg, which is arguably pretty liberal. Despite that fact, people still defend Trump around here regardless of what he does. It's puzzling.



I know, but Trump is a different breed- he brings out the Pennsyltuckians in droves around here. He routinely visits the PA Farm Show Complex that I live close by to. It's fucking insane.

Pittsburgh is, largely, pretty fucking fed up with his shit.
 

Afrikan

Member
Oct 28, 2017
16,976
I see we are back to those look at that bitch eating crackers thing going with Bernie, to downplay his performance.

"He looks so angry!! Angry old man!"

Fuck yeah I'd be angry too if my competitors and debate questioners are not being genuine.

Folks hate Bernie because he is so popular. I see that from a few people at work.. after a few questions to them, they run out of reasons why they don't like him. I can relate to Bernie, I DON'T LIKE PEOPLE BULLSHITING ME TO MY FACE ON SERIOUS ISSUES!
 

y2dvd

Member
Nov 14, 2017
2,481
Warren probably won last night, but it was kinda funny seeing her defend Klob one minute, only to immediately take shots at her the next lol.
 

Afrikan

Member
Oct 28, 2017
16,976



What does Warren say @13:13?


at the start of 1:58 is when Warren blasts Pete and then Amy.... then going after Bernie. It's hilarious when you see the split screen with their facial reactions in real time. Bernie has a good one.

edit- I'm watching it again on mute at work, and Pete interrupts Amy at 10:20 that cause her to rest her hands on the podium and close her eyes... as if to say "lord help me I'm about to slap this fucker".
 
Last edited:

tulpa

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
3,878
Is he not a member of this party? Aren't his members too? If not they probably shouldn't be voting in DNC primaries.
They aren't "DNC primaries." They are primary elections held in each state and people are allowed to vote according to the rules in their state. In around half of the states, including mine, you do not have to be a member of a political party to vote in the primary. There's nothing wrong with independents participating in the process and it's amazing that people try to paint that as somehow being a disadvantage lol