This post here is my original thought about it.
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MafiEra Mafia |OT| The Day of the Blargonauts
- Thread starter The Bear
- Start date
This post here is my original thought about it.
tbh I'm gonna have to go reread that whole argument because I didn't really read it and I don't remember much of it.
For the record, Fran, I think you're more likely to be town than anything else. I was just explaining Sorian's logic.
I guess I'll ask then. What exactly is your role? You said you would be happily leashed, but the reason some people avoided you is because they thought they could use that shot today.
I panicked when I saw the modifiers thinking everyone would vote immediately and I wanted to post that right then
Pretty dumb but that is how I felt at that moment
I don't believe Fran is scum who got the backup, a scum who gets an override is basically confirmed town, very OP imo, maybe a neutral? Even then I find it hard to believe, I don't think it is worth exploring the idea right now with the posting limits. I think he is very likely town.
Pirate Bae
Here was my reasoning on Geno, I will say this was mixed with a meta read of when he played with me on Bill and Ted mafia and was scum, his way of arguing felt pretty similar to me at the time.
Pretty dumb but that is how I felt at that moment
I don't believe Fran is scum who got the backup, a scum who gets an override is basically confirmed town, very OP imo, maybe a neutral? Even then I find it hard to believe, I don't think it is worth exploring the idea right now with the posting limits. I think he is very likely town.
Pirate Bae
Here was my reasoning on Geno, I will say this was mixed with a meta read of when he played with me on Bill and Ted mafia and was scum, his way of arguing felt pretty similar to me at the time.
I will answer this, but tomorrow morning. I'm not trying to cop out, I just really badly need to go to sleep and I don't want to get involved in a discussion and suddenly drop.
I'm going to guess you inherit the role 'as is' so if it's x-shot then you have the same which makes this scenario more plausible, but not something I'm going to really weigh that heavily right now. If you survive until late game then maybe this becomes more of a concern. I don't believe that you would lie about what a gamerunner said so I have no reason to doubt why you had to wait for today.
What?
This seems like a really bad plan and something that is likely to only help scum given that having the BP does not actually indicate alignment.
You make me regret defending your horrible decisions. Why do you do this?
Post #3
Ok, going to do two posts now, one for general stuff and one for Fran stuff, then go silent for a bit. I feel like if I don't ration this heavily I'll fuck up. First off a few things from day end and start. Terra's flip is not super shocking but I had enough doubt there and it looks like enough others did too that it needed to happen at some point. I am a bit confused by this post though:
Is he just referring to how people's names are XXX the Townie? Because that's not really flavorful and it felt like he meant more. Secondly, I'm massively disappointed that Cthulhu got this as the modifier, it's the most white bread thing possible for such a wild game but if anyone was still doubting it, guessing modifiers is going to be fruitless. This, again, had nothing to do with Cthulhu so Bear literally just chose whatever and will come up with a flavor reason to justify it (it also, again, is something that is to the detriment of both town and scum so I'm still doubting any of these are actually biased against either side much).
And finally, Geno is a weird fucking pick. He's not the quiet no info kill because he played enough to get reads out on him. He peaced out for almost a full real life day because of a fight so he was missing actual read content near the end, and unless there was something super coded that I missed, he didnt even lightly hint at a claim. I can't see the justification at all and that's bothersome.
What does you having one vest have anything to do with not believing CeeCee. I saw other people ask but I don't think you really gave a good answer? One vest out there is fine, my worry of him being scum is if there are more than average out there (more than two in a game this size imo). I think you're town though. Between my read of you today and how this shit show is going, I don't think this claim is a lie and I don't think scum has a vest naturally.
This post on the otherhand, woof. I'm not even 100% sure what this post is referring to but it comes before CeeCee claims to have lied and after Chuggs claimed so I assume you are agreeing with Chuggs sentiment? Why? This reeks like you expected more people to agree with Chuggs and that fell flat.
I meant to grab the quote where Flux talked about PR just now too but must not have clicked it. Where in the work did he hint at a PR before today?
To expand on scum reads on you since I still scum read you, your inactivity is whatever, you are a less than average poster from my experience with you so that so much doesn't bother me. My real bother with you is you spend a lot of your time defending yourself and not doing anything else. You had a real weird defensive line day one when you said you were just hoping to come into this game having more fun than normal but even past that as you've normalized your posts more, they are all still mostly about defending yourself from someone else.
Stan was probably the biggest person wanting to see a CeeCee lynch, before he went down, we didn't know the choice would go to Brazil but even if it transitioned to a regular vote, I don't think CeeCee had enough detractors to be lynched.
----
My scum lists haven't altered much to be honest. Fran is on the back burner now (more below), Flux is still the main person I want to flip, Ket is there still. I do agree with whoever said that Fanto feels like he was playing the whole Fran/Chuggs debate (didn't grab that quote either) but not enough to go all in on that yet, aside from the Chuggs' stuff, I've actually liked Fanomas' posts a lot.
Is he just referring to how people's names are XXX the Townie? Because that's not really flavorful and it felt like he meant more. Secondly, I'm massively disappointed that Cthulhu got this as the modifier, it's the most white bread thing possible for such a wild game but if anyone was still doubting it, guessing modifiers is going to be fruitless. This, again, had nothing to do with Cthulhu so Bear literally just chose whatever and will come up with a flavor reason to justify it (it also, again, is something that is to the detriment of both town and scum so I'm still doubting any of these are actually biased against either side much).
And finally, Geno is a weird fucking pick. He's not the quiet no info kill because he played enough to get reads out on him. He peaced out for almost a full real life day because of a fight so he was missing actual read content near the end, and unless there was something super coded that I missed, he didnt even lightly hint at a claim. I can't see the justification at all and that's bothersome.
What does you having one vest have anything to do with not believing CeeCee. I saw other people ask but I don't think you really gave a good answer? One vest out there is fine, my worry of him being scum is if there are more than average out there (more than two in a game this size imo). I think you're town though. Between my read of you today and how this shit show is going, I don't think this claim is a lie and I don't think scum has a vest naturally.
This post on the otherhand, woof. I'm not even 100% sure what this post is referring to but it comes before CeeCee claims to have lied and after Chuggs claimed so I assume you are agreeing with Chuggs sentiment? Why? This reeks like you expected more people to agree with Chuggs and that fell flat.
I meant to grab the quote where Flux talked about PR just now too but must not have clicked it. Where in the work did he hint at a PR before today?
To expand on scum reads on you since I still scum read you, your inactivity is whatever, you are a less than average poster from my experience with you so that so much doesn't bother me. My real bother with you is you spend a lot of your time defending yourself and not doing anything else. You had a real weird defensive line day one when you said you were just hoping to come into this game having more fun than normal but even past that as you've normalized your posts more, they are all still mostly about defending yourself from someone else.
Stan was probably the biggest person wanting to see a CeeCee lynch, before he went down, we didn't know the choice would go to Brazil but even if it transitioned to a regular vote, I don't think CeeCee had enough detractors to be lynched.
----
My scum lists haven't altered much to be honest. Fran is on the back burner now (more below), Flux is still the main person I want to flip, Ket is there still. I do agree with whoever said that Fanto feels like he was playing the whole Fran/Chuggs debate (didn't grab that quote either) but not enough to go all in on that yet, aside from the Chuggs' stuff, I've actually liked Fanomas' posts a lot.
I'm going to preface all this by saying, I don;'t even necessarily think Fran is scum. His insistence to prove it is what even made me worry about this rabbit hole (and the weirdness in his explanation first quote here)
So you are a universal backup, you weren't allowed to use your power immediately on getting it. That's weird but fine, that's a gamerunner choice and someone dying partway through a day AND having a day activated power is a rare occurrence so whatever at Bear making that pick. But what in the world does being a back up have to do with being able to change the leader during D1? You got the power after that stuff was over, why would it even be a consideration how you could have used it D1?
Quoting again for why this bothers me so much in the first place. You are not an override. The balance consideration has nothing to do with you being an override. You are a backup. And as Natiko later says, you are probably a back up that would have inherited the number of shots remaining on the person that died so there's an easy world where you become a 0-shot overrider anyway. The way you really want us to drop this shit on nothing is astounding. You would be fucking pounding a wall if someone else was doing this and you scum read them and you know it.
Phoenix Wright had a town aligned backup that could only inherit their powers from the neutral. Just so we have the precedence out there (Bear was also my co-mod that season).
LaunchPadMQ would give scum an override for one. But that's not even the point, I agree that a basic ass override would never be scum aligned (Danganronpa's wasn't basic) but you aren't a basic override, you lucked into the role by complete chance and nothing more.
Fran was up for consideration yesterday even if it was mild and decided on his own to blurt out that he could prove himself today. He has to come into today with something so that's exactly why he needs to say something. While I do agree that he has the power and we can't actually lynch him until he uses it, that doesn't just make him disappear from consideration, having it his way, he'd want you to just continue today assuming he semi-confirmed town per his post above. This isn't like conspiracy though I can see why you'd say that. Your claim felt like it had no water to me, I believe Fran's claim, it's the alignment that worries me and the circumstances on how he claimed.
So you are a universal backup, you weren't allowed to use your power immediately on getting it. That's weird but fine, that's a gamerunner choice and someone dying partway through a day AND having a day activated power is a rare occurrence so whatever at Bear making that pick. But what in the world does being a back up have to do with being able to change the leader during D1? You got the power after that stuff was over, why would it even be a consideration how you could have used it D1?
Quoting again for why this bothers me so much in the first place. You are not an override. The balance consideration has nothing to do with you being an override. You are a backup. And as Natiko later says, you are probably a back up that would have inherited the number of shots remaining on the person that died so there's an easy world where you become a 0-shot overrider anyway. The way you really want us to drop this shit on nothing is astounding. You would be fucking pounding a wall if someone else was doing this and you scum read them and you know it.
Phoenix Wright had a town aligned backup that could only inherit their powers from the neutral. Just so we have the precedence out there (Bear was also my co-mod that season).
LaunchPadMQ would give scum an override for one. But that's not even the point, I agree that a basic ass override would never be scum aligned (Danganronpa's wasn't basic) but you aren't a basic override, you lucked into the role by complete chance and nothing more.
Fran was up for consideration yesterday even if it was mild and decided on his own to blurt out that he could prove himself today. He has to come into today with something so that's exactly why he needs to say something. While I do agree that he has the power and we can't actually lynch him until he uses it, that doesn't just make him disappear from consideration, having it his way, he'd want you to just continue today assuming he semi-confirmed town per his post above. This isn't like conspiracy though I can see why you'd say that. Your claim felt like it had no water to me, I believe Fran's claim, it's the alignment that worries me and the circumstances on how he claimed.
Alright I'm here and will post a bunch and I really like this weird ass modifier.
But I want to burn a post to be incisive about it cause this is really nagging me right now:
I believe Fran inherited Stan and now has a override, since like others have said who would lie about something like that? But why the hell did he claim so soon considering he was among the players doubting CeeCee's claim last phase? After all, if CeeCee ended being scum after all, he could've just shot Fran in the face and once again squandered yet another town override.
Quite a bit after Fran claimed, CeeCee inavertedly reveals that he can't shoot today and stops posting for RL reasons... I gotta say this is really working up my paranoia.
Of course, Fran's claim and excitedness is reading REALLY townie right now, plus why the hell would scum link themselves like this so soon into the game? But my god.
But I want to burn a post to be incisive about it cause this is really nagging me right now:
I believe Fran inherited Stan and now has a override, since like others have said who would lie about something like that? But why the hell did he claim so soon considering he was among the players doubting CeeCee's claim last phase? After all, if CeeCee ended being scum after all, he could've just shot Fran in the face and once again squandered yet another town override.
Quite a bit after Fran claimed, CeeCee inavertedly reveals that he can't shoot today and stops posting for RL reasons... I gotta say this is really working up my paranoia.
Of course, Fran's claim and excitedness is reading REALLY townie right now, plus why the hell would scum link themselves like this so soon into the game? But my god.
[6/30]
Why would you look there now? This is entirely relying on Brazil being Town and we have no way of knowing that. Unless you know Brazil is Town because you're Scum.
Why? Neutral/Scum!CeeCee would have everything to gain by wasting a shot for us. Whether he follows us or not doesn't mean a thing about his alignment.
????
Why would you look there now? This is entirely relying on Brazil being Town and we have no way of knowing that. Unless you know Brazil is Town because you're Scum.
Why? Neutral/Scum!CeeCee would have everything to gain by wasting a shot for us. Whether he follows us or not doesn't mean a thing about his alignment.
Fantomas What she is saying is you can totally, 110% always trust me. I would never, ever, ever backstab anyone.
Why are you dodging answering why you doubted the 3-shot claim if you were a 1-shot BP?
Testing the BP and confirming it doesn't mean anything for Chuggs. If (for some reason) CeeCee IS Town then Scum having a BP makes perfect sense and would highly implicate Chuggs.
:x
Myself and one other (may have been Fanto) noted how Geno was acting very sketchy the last Day Phase and how he may have been hiding something. With Scum knowing Geno wasn't one of them they could have easily interpreted that as him being a PR trying to stay alive.
I claimed yesterday because I was first on the list in both Stan and Brazil lists. If you believe that CeeCee was scared and shoot Stan you can buy that I though I would be lynched yesterday. Also I will flip as an overrider and not my original role so I wanted to get that out quickly so in case I die noone thinks that this is way crazier that it really is.
That were the conditions Stan had. He could change the leader D1 but couldn't target himself and could't use it last night.
It's true that I can't gain used shots but really think about this. There were the possibility that, if Brazil and I were scum partners, that scum could control the first 2 days. I don't believe that both the Gamerunner and the reviewers could miss that. It would be extremely OP for scum to control 2 days lynch.
Sorian What do you think about CeeCee being unable to use his shoot today?
It was a possibility but that would mean that CeeCee killed someone who it's very unlikely scum, a second time. If CeeCee shot me you should just lynch him.
CeeCee I want a full claim and why you can't use your role today.
Also everyone should keep at least a couple of posts available near end game because I will likely want to make some questions to help me take the best decision.
Sawneeks and whoever wanted to know. If town has a 1 shot bullet proof then I feel like a day vig with three shots is kind of OP. I'm bad at balancing though so what the hell do I know. For what it's worth, I'm still leaning town for Ceecee which is why I wasn't really pushing for a Ceecee lynch yesterday. I'm just not sure about the shots, but what he's said about how he can't use his shots today makes me feel like he was kind of telling the truth
I have to work based on some assumptions, Brazil being town being one of them for the time being, mostly because I could've seen myself lynching Terra for similar reasons than he did. I had initially suspected him yesterday and wanted Cabot or Stan over him as a leader, so if I was scum it'd probably be better for consistency's sake to still scumread him, even more so after the Terra mislynch, but I turned around on him fairly quickly afterwards.
A couple things, I meant to quote CeeCee's claim that he can't shoot today and I must have forgotten so thanks for reminding me. I'm not shocked in the least. I said yesterday I thought he was lying because a 3-shot vig is a bit wild. I still think he's either 1-shot or odd day (if he is odd day then he's not scum, that means not only did Bear allow scum to get a free kill on day 1, he was actually encouraging it because when people are limited like that, they feel they have to use it right when it comes up.
I get that Stan could have maybe used his role that way. I have no idea why that information was passed to you though. It no longer pertained and it was not a part of his role PM.
I'm going to go out on a limb and say the only two ways your scenario happens where scum controls the lynch two days in a row is what happened here (CeeCee shooting Stan) or Stan being lynched day 1 and forgetting, not being around, not caring enough to override to someone else. If CeeCee is town, both of those scenarios are wild town fuck ups so not really a shocking ending to be that scum gets rewarded. Aside from that, I'm sure there were way more useless things you could have gotten (if you're scum). I don't see the issue you are trying to make out of this.
I mean, vig shots are going to usually end up negative for town, not always and it can be very strong in the right situation so 3 shots in towns hands isn't really horrible, if anything the balance is bad because you need to worry about them slaughtering all town with their ability but past that, your BP doesn't really stop that from being a possibility (I really would have just claimed vanilla if I were you to be completely honest, even on your death bed, it's always best to just never admit a BP unless it's super end game and real cards need to be on the table). And yes, I know signals are a little mixed since I said a lot of BPs being around day 1 would make CeeCee scum so inherently getting that info out quicker would be better but CeeCee is whatever, in that situation he would probably lose a shot to one of those BPs meant to counter him and we'd still find him out later in the game as roles started flipping.
[7/30]
Fantomas Dr. Monkey rac Faddy Pirate Bae Brazil malus
I want your guy's thoughts on these posts below.
Fantomas Dr. Monkey rac Faddy Pirate Bae Brazil malus
I want your guy's thoughts on these posts below.
These make no sense
There is 0 indication of what each modifier is based on game title, so I'm not sure why you're discussing it like it is.
Why would you expect Flux or Fran to die over a proven day vig? Or someone with far more town cred than either of those two?
If they wanted a low info kill there were players like myself that would give literally 0 information about anything due to a lack of meaningful interactions. Geno had actual conversations.
I voted for this one because on Wednesday night's I'm playing in a Call of Cthulhu game. My character died last week, eaten by a Hunter in the Sky. Good a reason as any, right? Right.
There is 0 indication of what each modifier is based on game title, so I'm not sure why you're discussing it like it is.
Yes, I would have seen that without you wasting a post...
I'm suddenly having Batman Mafia flashbacks, to a sniper that took days to set up a shot that never came, because it was all a lie... granted, Stan did die so that's at least something. But a day vig that can't shoot twice in a day, can't shoot consecutive days and doesn't claim in thread? crazy
I did say it wasn't a great use of BP or a day vig shot.
Thank you. I'm glad I'm not the only one questioning the Geno pick instead of being all "that makes sense". No, it doesn't. I'm going to be the one to say it: It makes me wonder if Geno was the actual target.
Well, I was thinking of a scenario where he doesn't waste a shot. For instance, he offered to be leashed and go along with what the group wants. If the group picks someone, and then CeeCee goes against the group, there is possible information to be gained there when either of them flips. If CeeCee ends up being scum, there's a possibility that he was avoiding a teammate or something like that. If he just hits scum, then I would have a better feeling about him in general because that would be a huge jerk move to shoot a teammate like that.
It's not the most solid stuff to glean from it, but there is information to gain besides just whoever is flipped from the shot. Although at this point, I don't think he's a 3-shot DayVig at all.
Now to catch up with some posts in here. I'm trying to limit myself because I want to be able to get a lot of quotes into one and save as many of these precious posts as I can.
Do you have a top two Town now?
What do you think of CeeCee now that he has revealed that he cannot shoot someone else today?
I don't know shit about balance either, so I don't have much to say about the first part.
From what I remember while rereading Chugg last night, he was initially thinking that CeeCee was Town, later on he made a post saying he was feeling worse about CeeCee, then far later he came back and made a note that he was on the side of people who wanted to keep CeeCee alive.
I think in the last part of the post he is saying that he believes that CeeCee does have more shots but is being restricted from using them, and that this makes the face-value claim of X-Shot Day-Vig more believable to him. I'd agree, yeah, I hadn't considered the idea of an odd-day modifier on it like Sorian mentioned above, so that would make sense to me.
2.
I think he's saying that he had been scum reading Brazil, but that now he is Town reading him because he could see himself having picked Terra as well, and that if he (FB) was Scum he would stick with scum reading Brazil for consistency's sake instead? That was kind of a hard post to parse, but I think that's what he's saying. It reads a bit self conscious perhaps, and I don't really know if he needed to try justifying that as hard as he did to you.
The reason it feels to me like you're winging it is that you're opinions generally feel like they are coming from someone who is only half paying attention to the game. Otherwise, if I think of you as Scum, they also kind of feel purposely misleading/confusing, so I'd rather like to test that out in my mind instead of continuing to give you the benefit of the doubt. Since this unique day phase is obviously going to keep things from getting up to 2000+ posts again, I would hope you can find the time to be as thorough as you usually are, because I'd like to see it.
I responded to her earlier, assuming you probably saw it by now, but just in case you didn't this is the crux of my read on her:
Basically, I'd say that the content of Ketkat's posts are easily less towny than anyone in the game, so I see her as the scummiest person in the room.
I don't want to go down the meta hole too much, but "goofy" probably wasn't the right word, I'll agree to that. I honestly don't think I can sum up what it is with one word without busting out a thesaurus though, so it's whatever.
Do you have a top two Town now?
What do you think of CeeCee now that he has revealed that he cannot shoot someone else today?
When you get the chance, I'd like to hear why if you don't mind, or at least link me back to a spot where you went over him before if you don't have any new reasons.
1.
I don't know shit about balance either, so I don't have much to say about the first part.
From what I remember while rereading Chugg last night, he was initially thinking that CeeCee was Town, later on he made a post saying he was feeling worse about CeeCee, then far later he came back and made a note that he was on the side of people who wanted to keep CeeCee alive.
I think in the last part of the post he is saying that he believes that CeeCee does have more shots but is being restricted from using them, and that this makes the face-value claim of X-Shot Day-Vig more believable to him. I'd agree, yeah, I hadn't considered the idea of an odd-day modifier on it like Sorian mentioned above, so that would make sense to me.
2.
I think he's saying that he had been scum reading Brazil, but that now he is Town reading him because he could see himself having picked Terra as well, and that if he (FB) was Scum he would stick with scum reading Brazil for consistency's sake instead? That was kind of a hard post to parse, but I think that's what he's saying. It reads a bit self conscious perhaps, and I don't really know if he needed to try justifying that as hard as he did to you.
[2/30]
Big post with what's on my mind right now and a full reads list.
First, some recent quotes.
Fantomas What happened with your read on me? Comparing your most recent list with the last you shared at D1.5, I went from Top Town to barely a null read, probably a lean scum one at that.
In your reads list today you elaborated on a few players, like Pirate Bae who went from null to scum, but no mention on me.
Good point on possibly Scum! BP Chuggs. That totally slipped my mind but it's a very simples conclusion. Point is moot thought since we wouldn't know if CeeCee took a shot or not anyway.
But I wonder if Scum! Neeks would be this cheeky and outright explain her team's (flawed) reasoning for killing Geno so soon like this. Definitely not a good idea to go down this WIFOM road, so I'll leave it at that.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Anyway, an actual reads list with what I have in mind and without going back to read posts from the players, ordered from towniest to scummiest, with comments on a few of them. Note that I hate giving out null readings - feels like I'm cheating and avoiding making my mind about someone. So I'll avoid that label altogether.
TOWN
Natiko - Reasonable, confrontational and not really pushy about his views. Natiko is my top town read at the moment. I feel like he's in the perfect spot for veteran good player, putting down his views clearly and being incisive about them but without being too on the nose about it. He's scum hunting without putting out busy work.
cabot
Sorian - Had a moment where I suspected him for hedging for Stan, but since he flipped Town I think I can put that behind me for now. Looks to be paying more attention to everyone and all topics of the thread. Picked this up as a town-sign of his, since he admittedly picks some players to ignore when scum, especially in big games such as these.
Faddy - Don't agree with a lot of his opinions, but I read him as a wholesome Town. Faddy can be a bit controversial and he's not quite there this game, but I like his inputs so far and his read on Brazil is interesting.
Dr. Monkey - This is probably her paranoia getting to me, but seems a bit fluffier than normal? Still, good insight and posts as always. Reminds me of a particular post by Monkey back at D1.5 about Flux that helped me form my read that I need to go back to later.
GREY ZONE OF MESS
Fran
CeeCee
Chuggernaut
I'll just put these 3 here.
Right now Fran is hard town to me (though I want to hear more from others on his turbo claim come day start with a Day Vig in plain sight with questionable alignment still alive). Chuggs is a mess, but I'm town reading him at the moment.
LEAN TOWN
Sawneeks
malus
Kyanrute
Fireblend
Blargonaut - I liked his true self shining through the shit-posting back when Stan hit the fan at D1.5. Hope we get to see more of that soon, since this read will drop down a lot if that doesn't happen today at D2.
Brazil - I planning an ISO on him soon so I can review and explain my thoughts on him and the potential Terra "link" I had in mind.
Fantomas
turmoil7 - Seems pretty sincere. I know from previous games that he loves balance talk and paying attention to breadcrumbs to try and solve the game, so I don't find his mention today all too strange. He's pretty contained this time around though so I want to see more today.
LEAN SCUM
Pirate Bae - A lot of what she posts don't seem to land anywhere, so I don't have a lasting impression on her views exactly. Could definitely see as scum skating by.
rac - Fantomas (?) said rac mentioned in a scum chat recently that he sucks playing scum. I could see a unmotivated Scum! rac in here not willing to post much and lurking here and there. Seems he's here to defend himself whenever people start pointing towards his direction. Will see later if I'm right on this.
Zubz - Same can be said here, get the feeling Zubz isn't really trying so far and they seem to always come in late for the conversation.
SCUM
FluxWaveZ - Flip flopping a bunch with a lot of defensive posts. Don't remember any instance when he was, without a doubt, scum hunting. I definitely need to ISO him to form an hard stance on this.
KetKat - Been playing weird since the very start. Most of the time inactive and not adding much to the discussion, with I believe zero aggressive playing. Hate it being the crux of my case on her, but I remember Ket making the towniest post ever back on Monopoly that completely turned the tables of that game and lead town to their hard fought win. I don't see any of that here.
WHO?
nin and AbsolutBro go here. I sincerely have no read on either of them and don't think we should bother voting here today, at least not now.
(GODDAMN I'M TIRED)
Big post with what's on my mind right now and a full reads list.
First, some recent quotes.
Fantomas What happened with your read on me? Comparing your most recent list with the last you shared at D1.5, I went from Top Town to barely a null read, probably a lean scum one at that.
In your reads list today you elaborated on a few players, like Pirate Bae who went from null to scum, but no mention on me.
Good point on possibly Scum! BP Chuggs. That totally slipped my mind but it's a very simples conclusion. Point is moot thought since we wouldn't know if CeeCee took a shot or not anyway.
But I wonder if Scum! Neeks would be this cheeky and outright explain her team's (flawed) reasoning for killing Geno so soon like this. Definitely not a good idea to go down this WIFOM road, so I'll leave it at that.
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Anyway, an actual reads list with what I have in mind and without going back to read posts from the players, ordered from towniest to scummiest, with comments on a few of them. Note that I hate giving out null readings - feels like I'm cheating and avoiding making my mind about someone. So I'll avoid that label altogether.
TOWN
Natiko - Reasonable, confrontational and not really pushy about his views. Natiko is my top town read at the moment. I feel like he's in the perfect spot for veteran good player, putting down his views clearly and being incisive about them but without being too on the nose about it. He's scum hunting without putting out busy work.
cabot
Sorian - Had a moment where I suspected him for hedging for Stan, but since he flipped Town I think I can put that behind me for now. Looks to be paying more attention to everyone and all topics of the thread. Picked this up as a town-sign of his, since he admittedly picks some players to ignore when scum, especially in big games such as these.
Faddy - Don't agree with a lot of his opinions, but I read him as a wholesome Town. Faddy can be a bit controversial and he's not quite there this game, but I like his inputs so far and his read on Brazil is interesting.
Dr. Monkey - This is probably her paranoia getting to me, but seems a bit fluffier than normal? Still, good insight and posts as always. Reminds me of a particular post by Monkey back at D1.5 about Flux that helped me form my read that I need to go back to later.
GREY ZONE OF MESS
Fran
CeeCee
Chuggernaut
I'll just put these 3 here.
Right now Fran is hard town to me (though I want to hear more from others on his turbo claim come day start with a Day Vig in plain sight with questionable alignment still alive). Chuggs is a mess, but I'm town reading him at the moment.
LEAN TOWN
Sawneeks
malus
Kyanrute
Fireblend
Blargonaut - I liked his true self shining through the shit-posting back when Stan hit the fan at D1.5. Hope we get to see more of that soon, since this read will drop down a lot if that doesn't happen today at D2.
Brazil - I planning an ISO on him soon so I can review and explain my thoughts on him and the potential Terra "link" I had in mind.
Fantomas
turmoil7 - Seems pretty sincere. I know from previous games that he loves balance talk and paying attention to breadcrumbs to try and solve the game, so I don't find his mention today all too strange. He's pretty contained this time around though so I want to see more today.
LEAN SCUM
Pirate Bae - A lot of what she posts don't seem to land anywhere, so I don't have a lasting impression on her views exactly. Could definitely see as scum skating by.
rac - Fantomas (?) said rac mentioned in a scum chat recently that he sucks playing scum. I could see a unmotivated Scum! rac in here not willing to post much and lurking here and there. Seems he's here to defend himself whenever people start pointing towards his direction. Will see later if I'm right on this.
Zubz - Same can be said here, get the feeling Zubz isn't really trying so far and they seem to always come in late for the conversation.
SCUM
FluxWaveZ - Flip flopping a bunch with a lot of defensive posts. Don't remember any instance when he was, without a doubt, scum hunting. I definitely need to ISO him to form an hard stance on this.
KetKat - Been playing weird since the very start. Most of the time inactive and not adding much to the discussion, with I believe zero aggressive playing. Hate it being the crux of my case on her, but I remember Ket making the towniest post ever back on Monopoly that completely turned the tables of that game and lead town to their hard fought win. I don't see any of that here.
WHO?
nin and AbsolutBro go here. I sincerely have no read on either of them and don't think we should bother voting here today, at least not now.
(GODDAMN I'M TIRED)
Ah, my Null list is not in any particular order unlike the Town/Scum ones, but actually I lied because it is in a particular order, the order of the player list in the OP, where you appear closer to the bottom.
In all honesty, if Null was ordered, you and Saw would be at the top closer to Town, but I've never played with either of you and don't have anything else to lean on there yet so I wanted to keep forming my opinion on both of you as we got into D2.
I'm also not going to lie, I kind of expected both you and Saw to point that out to me that I had moved you guys to Null, so yeah I probably should have taken the time to include that reasoning in there as well.
For what it's worth, another difference is Flux moving to my null list, because I had remembered feeling a bit better about him during 1.5, and also I was rereading some of the early parts of D1 from before I subbed in, and I kind of liked how he handled himself early on when there were a few people jumping on him over what was ultimately not the biggest deal I felt. That's why I just asked Sorian why he still wants to see Flux gone the most today, seeing if he had anything new on him or some stuff I might have missed or not considered. I see you also have Flux at the top of your Scum list, but it sounds like you still want to ISO him to get a better stance. I think you made a good point about him not really scum hunting at all though, I don't remember seeing many instances either.
I don't think Ceecee's Scum, but I do think he's a liability. And I think Fran may be Scum. Admittedly, I've never seen Universal Backup in action, but also, we have no proof going for us outside of Fran killing The Chuggernaut... which is also bad, as I don't think Chugg's Scum. The fact that Fantomas is triangulated in all of this is intriguing, though.
2/30
2/30
I don't think Chuggs is lying about being a BP (see post to Fanto below). This means one of two things:
1. CeeCee is lying about being an X-shot, or even whatever condition he has placed on him where he can't shoot today. So Chuggs is just shit out of luck if Cee decides to shoot him, and then scum try to kill him, or he gets lynched, or whatever. One side would be stronger than the other, and I don't think Grizzly likes to be unbalanced. All of his games have been fair.
2. Chuggs is lying about the nature of his role. I do believe that he's a BP, but if CeeCee isn't lying, it's likely that Chuggs is. Either he has to choose to activate his BP, or it's an X-shot (which I think is unlikely, because that would be stupid OP). Or, he has some kind of condition that activates his power. I'm not sure what that would be, but it would have to offset such a strong role as a day vig.
Either way, we don't have enough information without flipping either one of them. I'd pick Chuggs between the two of them.
To be honest, I haven't been paying much attention to Fireblend simply because his reads have been kind of bland and he kind of bounces off others without any real content of his own (in my perspective), but I can't really fault him for this read in particular. I think it's more townie of him to admit that his stance has changed than anything, because it does put a big bullseye on your back and is very easy for people to criticize. It's normal to change your mind over the course of the game.
I would like to know why he townreads Brazil so strongly and so suddenly, though.
I'll admit, and I mentioned it previously, but lately I really haven't had that much time to dedicate to reading the game. I just skim when I don't have the time, and actually read when I do. So yes, you could say I'm only half paying attention. It's not intended, sorry.
I do understand where you're coming from, though.
Obviously I was wrong about Geno and Fran (I think). I'm inclined to believe Chuggs and Fran about their roles, although I'm not sure it absolves Chuggs. I think it's more likely that Fran is town than not, just because of the level of confidence he's been displaying this day phase and the level of transparency he's shown. Of course, it could just be very cocky scum, but that's not how Fran plays and I don't really see it, in this instance. The role itself is very town.
I think Sorian made good points about how the nature of the role doesn't necessarily mean he's town, hence my explanation of it in an earlier post, but again, I'm getting a town vibe and I think the simplest explanation is the best one.
Chuggs, on the other hand, is different. I do think he's a BP, but it doesn't necessarily mean he's town. I have seen plenty of scum BP's. This is all meta, though. None of his behavior this day phase has raised any red flags for me, but I've decided to wait and see how things progress, since A) I haven't forgotten his reads / behavior last day phase and B) posts and content are limited. As of right now, he'd be my top scum read, followed by turmoil. I would flip CeeCee just to resolve the dispute between him and Chuggs, but I do believe he's town, so I'd rather not.
Sorry Terra and Natiko, RIP Geno.
I can see why he acted that way now, but I had no reason to back down at that point.
Many people have already criticized this claim, but I have my own twist on it as well: this serves no one's interests but your own. If you're being truthful, that's basically one less useful town PR. This really clashes with the seemingly altruistic posture you showed just a little later when you said you wouldn't bother defending yourself, but rather focus on leaving behind reads for us to read.
Terra was plan A, Flux was plan B, and Pirate Bae was plan C. I got back to the thread in a hurry and saw Terra's long post full or arguing but with no acknowledgement of the claim request, and basically decided that he was the one then and there. I thought he could be hesitant to reveal a very important town PR, and so I asked him again. A vanilla claim wasn't that.
I can see why he acted that way now, but I had no reason to back down at that point.
Good luck with that responsibility. I really do hope we get scum this time, or we'll end up on D3 with potentially 5+ townies down and no real voting record to look into.
This reads so much like scum who spent N1 scouring the thread for possible PR soft-claims, missed, but now wants to at least turn that into some town cred.
"the hell" was at chuggs claim
it was p obvious that ceecee was lying on the 3 shot claim but uhm, how the hell did you interpret that i was agreeing with chuggs?
the hell
I don't love this bit of shade from you, especially given I know you're a strong enough player to recognize that you can't operate in this game assuming every non-confirmed player is scum. Sure the possibility should always be considered, but early on especially you have to try and work with what you believe to be the most likely situation until you get more facts.
But what you're describing isn't anywhere near a likely situation. In this scenario scum would have to win the leader vote followed by the very first role to die being the Override while still unused. It's not impossible, but you don't balance for the most improbable situations. That being said, I still believe you're town because if scum got ahold of an override there's absolutely no way they would claim and use it this early. That's the kind of surprise they keep for a more beneficial spot, even if it means gambling on losing it via a vig.
[01/30]
I..I don't understand.
Since the thread is slow and I actually have access to a computer currently I'll get my full reads list out there now after I do some ISOs and rereading.
Post #4
My ISO targets were Terra, Flux, Fran, Pirate Bae, Zubz, rac, Ketkat, Fantomas and turmoil. I still feel bad about all of them to varying degrees, but Terra was the one who stood out more to me yesterday, unfortunately.
I noted all of it down with pen & paper, as I work faster that way somehow. I'll type what I thought of it all down and post it tomorrow when it's not 2 AM ._.
Wait, what? I don't get what you said here at all. I tried to throw myself into Fran/Chuggs?
Yeah, instead of that you get to read dozens of 5000 characters-long posts in a row. Good stuff :P
So, part of me thought "Backup" was what BP stood for, but I'm actually getting very confused trying to parse the Fran-anigans. What does BP stand for again?
... I didn't even notice turmoil7 posted. If there wasn't a lock-in modifier, I would've voted for him already, though. I'm still shaky about how he played yesterday, & it's persisting until today. At the very least, I want to shake him for more info.
3/10
... I didn't even notice turmoil7 posted. If there wasn't a lock-in modifier, I would've voted for him already, though. I'm still shaky about how he played yesterday, & it's persisting until today. At the very least, I want to shake him for more info.
3/10
That post from Chuggs is weird and interesting because, from town's perspective, it doesn't make much sense. Why would an 1-shot town BP existing make a town 3-shot day vig seem OP?
If you look at it from scum's perspective, though, it makes total sense. Scum would definitely think see a town 3-shot day vig as absurdly OP if all they had to defend themselves was an 1-shot BP.
That'd be such a huge slip it makes my head spin.
I'll have to look back through Febe's posts from last phase, because I don't think he voiced suspicion of me back then. Doing a complete 180º on his impression of me over my reasoning for lynching Terra would be suspicious, but if he was just kind of going back and forth on his read, then I can see that pushing him over the fence into trusting me.
I'd also like to point out that I officially trust Fandorin, because he gave me exactly what I wanted out of him yesterday when I asked for his top 3 gut reads - a seemingly contradictory and out of nowhere read (the Terra link) that he seemed somewhat convinced of, but couldn't immediately explain. I feel like scum!Fand is way more methodical when posting reads, and so I don't think that's where that came from.
This either means that we'll beat scum together, or that I'll get killed just as I'm about to realize his true alignment, and then he'll get caught as the last remaining scum.
This either means that we'll beat scum together, or that I'll get killed just as I'm about to realize his true alignment, and then he'll get caught as the last remaining scum.
in my head it was obvious why ceecee would lie about being three shots(so scum would still target them with a nk), i still haven't read that post where he lied so please bare with me
so chugger making his role worthless is a bad play, possibly scum
im not sure if im sold on it since last game i thought he was scum the whole time(his posts this time aren't helping either) and ended up not being scum
as for fireblend i don't get having to assume brazil is town
scum would find an agreeable lynch on day 1 if they were in control and it seemed like terra was on a lot of lists
i mean i guess they could choose someone completely out of the blue but that would take some unnecessary risks in trying to explain
i dont really know what to make of the "so if i was scum" statement, its just kinda strange honestly
how many people in this game are like this?
why aren't you scum reading me?
really?
if that was the case yesterday let me tell you i felt 0 pressure at all
I don't need to talk to you to ISO you. I had only a few hours to read through a lot of stuff. I only stopped to ask questions when I really needed to.
On second thought, scum probably discussed CeeCee's power too thoroughly for a slip like this to happen.
See y'all tomorrow.
Honestly, this is basically exactly how I feel on the Fran/Chugg matter right now as well. I think Fran is Town, and I think there is still a high chance of Chugg being Scum. For now I'd personally rather see the Ketkat flip first because I feel like a lot of people are scum reading her and that flip could be pretty telling, but Chugg is definitely number 2.
Bulletproof.
Yeah, Turmoil's behavior today has him trending higher on my scum list for sure, for basically all the reasons that have been mentioned already.
Because you aren't like that. I remember one instance in particular sticking out to me of you coming into the thread with what I would consider some towny thoughts/questions for people.
You've also given reads from I remember as well, which is more than we can say about Ketkat who still hasn't given me her top two Town reads, and her only scum reads are me and CeeCee.
hmm what if there were multiple scum on stan's kill list?
go scum!monkey go!
[QUOTE="Fran, post: 16751318, member: 2514"
Also everyone should keep at least a couple of posts available near end game because I will likely want to make some questions to help me take the best decision.[/QUOTE]
man fran with some actual power is a real bummer
I... don't hate the post cap now as much as I did. Maybe I could get used to not talking constantly. Ask me again tomorrow, though; I was busy tonight and that helped.
My guess is that's not a huge possibility anymore and I don't mean that as a way to solve your towniness; we really don't know how to read the setup. But my guess is you wouldn't, as mafia, have constructed such a claim based on that. That's just my guess. I'd be more inclined at this point to think you're town.
Gonna try to hit a couple more before I go to bed.
Maybe. Could be. I haven't pulled the quotes yet, but I'm 50/50 with the people who are saying this is potentially predicated on Brazil being town. But I don't disagree it's not a bad place to start. I think what I'm really interested in today are shifts. People who were one way when Stan was GodKing, then Brazil, now Fran. Tomorrow, if there's no longer a godking, that will be even more telling, so I'll just leave this here. These restricted days can hurt but there are trails to follow.
hah. I did say your towniness made me nervous and reminded me of anime!Frankly how hard you've been selling me as a town read has me alarmed, Monkey.
I feel like you're trying to pocket me exactly as I pocketed you in Anime. This is your sick revenge. Just sick.
that's pretty sick. Revolting. Grim. Sick.
sick.
10.
1/3 done. I'll sign off until tomorrow at some point.
Does that mean you're not sure on a town read and you want to talk to Fanto, or you're town reading him?
I want to preface this by saying I suspect you're town, Fran, but what Sorian said later - that you yourself would not be inclined to accept this - is super accurate. And no one is saying there is a scum override. It's a town power. What Sorian is pointing out is that the backup could be any alignment, and that there's precedent for it in the community.
My guess is that's not a huge possibility anymore and I don't mean that as a way to solve your towniness; we really don't know how to read the setup. But my guess is you wouldn't, as mafia, have constructed such a claim based on that. That's just my guess. I'd be more inclined at this point to think you're town.
Gonna try to hit a couple more before I go to bed.