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March 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, April 17th

JSG87

Member
Mar 13, 2018
1,174
Ayr, Scotland
I honestly am not worried about how Labo performs in its launch month. I reckon that since they plan to keep on releasing different Labo stuff (come on its defo not just gonna be these two kits) that they'll do a proper push in time for the summer holidays. At the same time they apparently haven't made that many Labo kits in the first place so I'd assume that they know this is gonna be a niche product and at best will bring a few new people to Nintendo Switch but it certainly, to me at least, doesn't seem like they are banking on Labo as the be all and end all.
 

Deleted member 887

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
16,738
I think the big problem with LABO is they waited too long to release it.

Yall remember the mindshare it had when it was revealed. Most people were positive on it. I feel like it should have launched at most a month after that video.

Right now. No one is talking about it. Now it could benefit from WOM, but I really don't see this being a big hit on Twitch.
 

Deleted member 2785

User requested account closure
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Oct 25, 2017
2,119
Not sure Labo should be judged until we get through December. But no matter what it sells, I do anticipate supply being tight, I just don't expect them to make a lot. Could be wrong.

Limabean01 said:
Not to be that person that always asks this but... when is the public release of March NPD info?
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A week from tomorrow.

Ventilation Stick said:
The switches audience is what?

18-35 who said?
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Nintendo, in its October earnings call. Our games acquisition monitor survey data aligns with that. Should change over time, especially with Pokémon, but right now it's old dudes primarily.
 
Dynheart

Dynheart

Self-requested ban
Member
Oct 31, 2017
658
I see LABO being difficult to gauge at launch. The target audience is not the typical audience that runs out and pre-orders, at least in my opinion. I feel LABO, if it does, will be a game that will sell to kids (its target audience) watching T.V. and seeing a LABO commercial, then asking mom and pop to go to the store to buy one.

It is a product that seemingly either be a hit, or flop. Considering the expectations, that and it being Nintendo, any middling results would be perceived as a failure, I'm sure. Makes me wonder, though, how much, or little, does Nintendo need to sell to make a profit off of LABO.
 

Celine

Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,030
skittzo0413 said:
It is strange how little marketing has been done so far for Labo. Apparently the majority of it is in-store advertising? I wonder why they aren't pushing many TV/internet adverts... My best guess would be that its opening performance isn't really that important to them.
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LABO doesn't need to be a big success out of the gate.
I think Nintendo will roll out the product (as far as marketing dollars spent) gradually for a relatively long period (months) until the Holidays.
It's the performance in the Holidays that will make or break LABO.
 

Deleted member 3017

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Oct 25, 2017
17,653
Everything about Nintendo this year has kind of baffled me, to be honest. At this point, I'm not surprised LABO isn't tracking well, though I never really expected big things at launch.
 
Bitch Pudding

Bitch Pudding

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,202
OrbitalBeard said:
Everything about Nintendo this year has kind of baffled me, to be honest. At this point, I'm not surprised LABO isn't tracking well, though I never really expected big things at launch.
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If I learned something from stuff like the Wii Fit / Balance Board then that it's kinda impossible to predict the long term success of one of Nintendo's accessoires (unless you have access on certain KPIs, that is). Could become the next big thing, might as well be a non-starter.
 
sfortunato

sfortunato

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,740
Italy
People have been following sales for years and still struggle to grasp how a project like Labo might perform...?

Switch has yet to have a younger audience (price is steep, first year with early adopters, Pokémon yet to arrive) plus Labo is mainly targeted towards kids who don't buy at launch.

Labo performance must be analyzed after its first holiday, not at the launch month.

People comparing Labo with Wii Fit don't understand that Wii Fit was aimed at older people with income to spend and Wii was positioned as a casual/family console since the beginning.
 

Deleted member 3017

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Bitch Pudding said:
If I learned something from stuff like the Wii Fit / Balance Board then that it's kinda impossible to predict the long term success of one of Nintendo's accessoires. Could become the next big thing, might as well be a non-starter.
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Wii Fit was massive from the get-go, though I agree with your general point. LABO could be big over the holidays.
 
sfortunato

sfortunato

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,740
Italy
OrbitalBeard said:
Wii Fit was massive from the get-go, though I agree with your general point. LABO could be big over the holidays.
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Wii Fit was aimed at people who could have spent money right away, while Labo is aimed at kids, who must rely on parents' money.

Also, Wii Fit was released on Wii at a time where Wii was THE causal/family machine, thanks to massive hits like Wii Sports and Wii Play. Switch has yet to break out among kids being expensive and without Pokémon.
 

Deleted member 3017

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sfortunato said:
Wii Fit was aimed at people who could have spent money right away, while Labo is aimed at kids, who must rely on parents' money.

Also, Wii Fit was released on Wii at a time where Wii was THE causal/family machine, thanks to massive hits like Wii Sports and Wii Play. Switch has yet to break out among kids being expensive and without Pokémon.
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Well yeah, I'm well aware of the difference in climate between Wii in 2008 and Switch in 2018, as well as the different audiences for these two titles.
 

Deleted member 24550

Ac
Banned
Oct 29, 2017
2,398
May ass-timate is that Labo sells 100k in its first month in the USA, trucks along for 50k every following month and sells >1M every month of the holidays.

You can see why I'm near the bottom of the NPD prediction results.
 
Andri

Andri

Member
Mar 20, 2018
6,017
Switzerland
MatPiscatella said:
Not sure Labo should be judged until we get through December. But no matter what it sells, I do anticipate supply being tight, I just don't expect them to make a lot. Could be wrong.



A week from tomorrow.



Nintendo, in its October earnings call. Our games acquisition monitor survey data aligns with that. Should change over time, especially with Pokémon, but right now it's old dudes primarily.
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If 18-35 is old dudes, what does that make people like you ?

18-35 are still youngsters who wear shorts because they are cool and comfy.
 
Psycho_Mantis

Psycho_Mantis

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,965
Primethius said:
I want to say LABO will be a product that'll benefit from word of mouth but I'm honestly not sure it will. It seems largely not existent to the mainstream world.
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Was it ever something that would be relevant in the mainstream world though? Its an educational model set for young teens and kids tied to a video game console.
It seems the launch may be weak though its the holidays, when a lot of purchases for that demographic are made, that will really show if LABO will be relevant or not.

Bitch Pudding said:
If I learned something from stuff like the Wii Fit / Balance Board then that it's kinda impossible to predict the long term success of one of Nintendo's accessoires (unless you have access on certain KPIs, that is). Could become the next big thing, might as well be a non-starter.
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Wii Fit was massive from the beginning. That thing was sold out for months on end.
 

Deleted member 4976

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
13,246
Psycho_Mantis said:
Was it ever something that would be relevant in the mainstream world though? Its an educational model set for young teens and kids tied to a video game console.
It seems the launch may be weak though its the holidays, when a lot of purchases for that demographic are made, that will really show if LABO will be relevant or not.



Wii Fit was massive from the beginning. That thing was sold out for months on end.
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I mean, it has the be relevant to the mainstream if it wants to be successful with regards to its target audience.

If it just sells initially to the hardcore fans before fading away, that's not... anything?
 
phantomx

phantomx

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,801
Labo kits will be counted as videogames cause it's basically Switch software inside packed with extra cardboard, correct?

We all agree that Labo will make the top 10 NPD for April, right?
 
Gotdatmoney

Gotdatmoney

Member
Oct 28, 2017
14,500
For a product that is suppose to be launching soon I dont get any marketing blitz type feeling from Labo. Maybe toys are different but I dunno. This is gonna be a wait and see for me.
 
MrTired

MrTired

Member
Oct 28, 2017
3,230
phantomx said:
Labo kits will be counted as videogames cause it's basically Switch software inside packed with extra cardboard, correct?

We all agree that Labo will make the top 10 NPD for April, right?
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Gonna say no, just cause it has two sku's and it seems that Nintendo hasn't produced a limited amount.
 
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Professor DJ

Banned
Mar 1, 2018
175
[XB1] 360K
[PS4] 305K
[NSW] 245K

Sea of Theives has been selling or sold out in the region and I know many others saying the same.

I'm assuming it did enough, along with pubg, to win the month.

Oddly, I see many in this thread thinking Xbox will be last last month. Am I missing some event that happened last month?
 
Bitch Pudding

Bitch Pudding

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,202
Psycho_Mantis said:
Was it ever something that would be relevant in the mainstream world though? Its an educational model set for young teens and kids tied to a video game console.
It seems the launch may be weak though its the holidays, when a lot of purchases for that demographic are made, that will really show if LABO will be relevant or not.



Wii Fit was massive from the beginning. That thing was sold out for months on end.
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Please define "from the beginning". Because I'm obviously referring to it's announcement, not day 1 sales. When I saw that board the first time I asked myself who in the world would by such an expensive accessory. I have the very same feeling with Labo. Which, apparently, is a good sign for Nintendo.
 
phantomx

phantomx

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Oct 27, 2017
1,801
MrTired said:
Gonna say no, just cause it has two sku's and it seems that Nintendo has produced a limited amount.
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Yea, I guess the 2 sku thing could mess up the total Labo tally...but they are more expensive sku's than your average game, and NPD lists are about revenue, not units.

I understand that there are a lot of anecdotal insider reports that it doesn't feel like people want to buy Labo's...but I would point to other sketchy touchstones like Amazon best sellers :p

Labo was #1 best seller (pre order) for almost a month after it was revealed...right now it shows it being #4 best selling (actual) videogame?

*shrugs*

I guess we'll see. I expect Labo to be more of a slow burn anyways. It will rely on word of mouth and seeing the thing in action. It will continue to sell for a long while, rather than be the type of thing with pre-hype, a huge first month, and then quickly fading to irrelevancy
 

Deleted member 24550

Ac
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Oct 29, 2017
2,398
Labo Variety Kit is 42 on the 2018 best sellers (and currently 20th in hourly sellers). Which is actually two places above FC5 Xbox One version. Admittedly, that one can probably add another 30% digital to its count, but it has already been out for some time too and I reckon Labo will sell better in toy stores (on the other other hand, Amazon seems to favor Switch sales). So opening with a minimum of 70% of FC5 Xbox one sales seems a decent ballpark?
Anyone know what FC5 XB1 did?
 
Saint-14

Saint-14

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Nov 2, 2017
14,477
Oddly, I see many in this thread thinking Xbox will be last last month. Am I missing some event that happened last month?
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This question should be the other way around, is there something happened that you think Xbox could win the month? I don't see SoT alone doing that.
 
Peek-a-boo!

Peek-a-boo!

Member
Oct 30, 2017
4,196
Woodbridge
Professor DJ said:
Oddly, I see many in this thread thinking Xbox will be last last month. Am I missing some event that happened last month?
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Because ever since the Switch arrived on scene, the Xbox One has mostly been settled into third place, unless it has a price cut like it did in both December ($189) and February ($229) respectively. Those fairly big gaps in your predictions are very much the outlier, but I would say 'well done' all the same if you get them right!

I don't live in the US, but where's Sea of Thieves selling out? I have not heard anything of the sort. It seems to be doing better digitally (through GamePass) than at retail too.
 
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JesusBuiltMyHotRod

JesusBuiltMyHotRod

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Apr 13, 2018
203
Professor DJ said:
[XB1] 360K
[PS4] 305K
[NSW] 245K

Sea of Theives has been selling or sold out in the region and I know many others saying the same.

I'm assuming it did enough, along with pubg, to win the month.

Oddly, I see many in this thread thinking Xbox will be last last month. Am I missing some event that happened last month?
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hahaha. The xbox has been last most every month....what rock have you been hiding under? Didn;t outsell ps4 last month despite large discounts and being way cheaper.
 
MrTired

MrTired

Member
Oct 28, 2017
3,230
spekkeh said:
Labo Variety Kit is 42 on the 2018 best sellers (and currently 20th in hourly sellers). Which is actually two places above FC5 Xbox One version. Admittedly, that one can probably add another 30% digital to its count, but it has already been out for some time too and I reckon Labo will sell better in toy stores (on the other other hand, Amazon seems to favor Switch sales). So opening with a minimum of 70% of FC5 Xbox one sales seems a decent ballpark?
Anyone know what FC5 XB1 did?
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tenor.gif

That some major assumption your making. But I can guarantee you Labo ain't opening at 70% of Xbx SKU of Far Cry 5.
 
Skittzo

Skittzo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
41,037
Celine said:
LABO doesn't need to be a big success out of the gate.
I think Nintendo will roll out the product (as far as marketing dollars spent) gradually for a relatively long period (months) until the Holidays.
It's the performance in the Holidays that will make or break LABO.
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Well yeah this is what I've always assumed would be the case too, but then apparently NCL began advertising Labo fairly heavily in Japan ahead of its launch while NOA sits on its hands (apparently).
 

Deleted member 24550

Ac
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Oct 29, 2017
2,398
skittzo0413 said:
Well yeah this is what I've always assumed would be the case too, but then apparently NCL began advertising Labo fairly heavily in Japan ahead of its launch while NOA sits on its hands (apparently).
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Makes sense because in Japan it releases in front of Golden Week, the holiday similar to Christmas in the US. I have no doubt Labo will be big in Japan. (big in Japan!)
 
BioDigital Jazzman

BioDigital Jazzman

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Oct 27, 2017
6,942
spekkeh said:
Labo Variety Kit is 42 on the 2018 best sellers (and currently 20th in hourly sellers). Which is actually two places above FC5 Xbox One version. Admittedly, that one can probably add another 30% digital to its count, but it has already been out for some time too and I reckon Labo will sell better in toy stores (on the other other hand, Amazon seems to favor Switch sales). So opening with a minimum of 70% of FC5 Xbox one sales seems a decent ballpark?
Anyone know what FC5 XB1 did?
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Amazon isn't accurate for software
 
Revolsin

Revolsin

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Oct 27, 2017
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It was pretty clear from minute 1 of the first video of Labo that it wasn't going to be an immediate success, and it won't be.

It's a toy, massively affected by word of mouth and hands-on impressions far than anything at all.

Once it gets in the hands of toy youtubers and communities of the like, and you start seeing some genuinely genius ideas propping up through it, the momentum is going to spike like nothing else if it clicks. Think gigantic numbers there.

Right now though when results for April came out a while later, expect a lot 'doom' posts regarding it for a couple of months, "I knew it was a dumb idea anyway" etc
 
Revolsin

Revolsin

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4,373
spekkeh said:
Makes sense because in Japan it releases in front of Golden Week, the holiday similar to Christmas in the US. I have no doubt Labo will be big in Japan. (big in Japan!)
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Based on current data I've seen on Media Create threads, the opening likely isn't going to be anything special.
 

Professor DJ

Banned
Mar 1, 2018
175
Revolsin said:
It was pretty clear from minute 1 of the first video of Labo that it wasn't going to be an immediate success, and it won't be.

It's a toy, massively affected by word of mouth and hands-on impressions far than anything at all.

Once it gets in the hands of toy youtubers and communities of the like, and you start seeing some genuinely genius ideas propping up through it, the momentum is going to spike like nothing else if it clicks. Think gigantic numbers there.

Right now though when results for April came out a while later, expect a lot 'doom' posts regarding it for a couple of months, "I knew it was a dumb idea anyway" etc
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Toy YouTubers aren't even big though.

Gaming streamers and YouTubers would have to show it off.
 
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