March 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, April 17th

[Deleted member 2785]

And we all know the incredible sacrifices that many take to ship a game of this magnitude. The effect it can take on you physically, mentally, not to mention the strain on personal relationships especially the last months before ship.

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I do. And it's true for good games, and sometimes even more true for games that never evolve properly and end up bad. And there's gotta be no worse feeling than going through these sacrifices to only come out with a bad game knowing that the job's about to disappear with little to show for it. But yeah, when the rare end product is something like we're seeing this week? Something to be celebrated, certainly.

 

[MrTired]

degeneration x

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[Benji]

So, it's possible GoW may face some wide spread shortages at launch. Depends what sell through is like but shipments don't look like they are equaling what demand will be imo

Also the GoW Pro is pretry limited all things considered. Wide spread sell outs likely within 48 hours

 

[Deleted member 2785]

The retail shortage issue seems to be happening more and more.

Instead of realizing that digital is incremental, lots of folks still think some kind of shift is happening and retail is being caught short on a number of titles so far this year. The data is pretty clear about this, retail out of stocks shouldn't really be as big a problem as it is. But it'll be handwaved away as "a good problem to have" while they lose sales. Bummer.

So, I think we can go to high confidence that GoW will be the biggest exclusive launch on PS4 so far. Only question is how high is the sky.

EDIT - Just thought about how April data won't be releasing until May 22nd. Over a month to go. Sigh.

 

[Deleted member 5727]

Anytime a game does well it's great. Industry is small so we all tend know someone who was a part of the team.

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One of the best things about the industry. Everyone's pulling for each other to be successful. The more successful games there are, the bigger the market gets, which is better for everyone.

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This is nice to hear. Sometimes I imagine this industry is massive and disconnected. It's also nice to hear people genuinely being happy for others' success.

 

[Majiebeast]

The retail shortage issue seems to be happening more and more.

Instead of realizing that digital is incremental, lots of folks still think some kind of shift is happening and retail is being caught short on a number of titles so far this year. The data is pretty clear about this, retail out of stocks shouldn't really be as big a problem as it is. But it'll be handwaved away as "a good problem to have" while they lose sales. Bummer.

So, I think we can go to high confidence that GoW will be the biggest exclusive launch on PS4 so far. Only question is how high is the sky.

EDIT - Just thought about how April data won't be releasing until May 22nd. Over a month to go. Sigh.

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January screwed it all up. Is this how its going to be the rest of the year?

 

[Myriotes]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I think according to the NRF retail calender, the dates going forward will be:

March: March 4 - Apr 7, Public@Apr 24
April: Apr 8 - May 5, Public@May 22
May: May 6 - June 2, Public@June 19
June: June 3 - July 7, Public@July 24
July: July 8 - Aug 4, Public@Aug 21
Aug: Aug 5 - Sept 1, Public@Sept 18
Sept: Sept 2 - Oct 6, Public@Oct 23
Oct: Oct 7 - Nov 3, Public@Nov 20
Nov: Nov 4 - Dec 1, Public@Dec 18
Dec: Dec 2 - Jan 5, Public@Jan 22

January screwed it all up. Is this how its going to be the rest of the year?

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Short answer: Yes, always in the second half of the following month if I'm not mistaken.

 

[slavesnyder]

Instead of realizing that digital is incremental, lots of folks still think some kind of shift is happening and retail is being caught short on a number of titles so far this year. The data is pretty clear about this, retail out of stocks shouldn't really be as big a problem as it is. But it'll be handwaved away as "a good problem to have" while they lose sales. Bummer.

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Well, I believe you when you say that digital sales do not cannibalise retail, but it's still defying all logic. I am happy that boxed games still sell well but how can a new distribution channel not lessen the sales in the first one? That's black magic.
In that case, the walled gardens of console digital shops seem to be a blessing, as they stay cautious on sales and price dumping and keep prices on par with or even above retail prices. Steam killed PC retail with its discount dumping strategy, but as long as the console stores don't start a bargain war to pull people into their ecosystems, boxed games will stay relevant.

It's also nice to hear people genuinely being happy for others' success.

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Nice euphemism for communist hippie weaklings.

 

[Deleted member 2785]

Well, I believe you when you say that digital sales do not cannibalise retail

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On a single game basis there may be some cannibalization. However, digital has grown the pie significantly. Making it easier for people to buy games whenever, wherever and however they'd like will do that.

I'm guessing we'll see some titles set franchise records for physical sales despite huge digital growth.

It's certaily not zero sum.

 

[Deleted member 5727]

Nice euphemism for communist hippie weaklings.

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lol

 

[Nightengale]

Digital cannibalization happens when an IP stagnates/doesn't grow.

A lot of franchises, even really big ones, have not topped out their growth potential. And the ceiling can be pretty high.

 

[Phendrift]

The retail shortage issue seems to be happening more and more.

Instead of realizing that digital is incremental, lots of folks still think some kind of shift is happening and retail is being caught short on a number of titles so far this year. The data is pretty clear about this, retail out of stocks shouldn't really be as big a problem as it is. But it'll be handwaved away as "a good problem to have" while they lose sales. Bummer.

So, I think we can go to high confidence that GoW will be the biggest exclusive launch on PS4 so far. Only question is how high is the sky.

EDIT - Just thought about how April data won't be releasing until May 22nd. Over a month to go. Sigh.

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So, it's possible GoW may face some wide spread shortages at launch. Depends what sell through is like but shipments don't look like they are equaling what demand will be imo

Also the GoW Pro is pretry limited all things considered. Wide spread sell outs likely within 48 hours

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Holy shit this is actually a problem?

I was counting on being able to walk in my GameStop and pick one up on Friday, now y'all are scaring me! :/

 

[Benji]

Holy shit this is actually a problem?

I was counting on being able to walk in my GameStop and pick one up on Friday, now y'all are scaring me! :/

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Software shortages at retail have been happening recently with large games. Far Cry 5 and Monster Hunter both experienced them to varying degrees.

Depends on what sell through is like, but right now with GoW looking at what its shipping, I'm not convinced there is enough there to meet demand. But we will see.

 

[Phendrift]

Software shortages at retail have been happening recently with large games. Far Cry 5 and Monster Hunter both experienced them to varying degrees.

Depends on what sell through is like, but right now with GoW looking at what its shipping, I'm not convinced there is enough there to meet demand. But we will see.

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Hm, that's pretty interesting. I wonder why that is.

I feel like I've never experienced an issue with not being able to find a regular copy of a new game close to launch.

 

[Benji]

Hm, that's pretty interesting. I wonder why that is.

I feel like I've never experienced an issue with not being able to find a regular copy of a new game close to launch.

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Keep in mind forums have a bad habit of thinking shortages = OMG EVERYTHING IS SOLD OUT

That's not the case or what I mean. I'm saying though that there is a chance we will be looking at low inventory post launch / sporadically being out of stock. I'm sure if you look for GoW you will be able to find it without going into more than a store or 2. But I do suspect that their original shipment will be ran through pretty quick and a second large scale shipment hot on its heels


Demand for the game has skyrocketed over the past week and it was already high anyways.

 

[v_iHuGi]

God of War is selling out here too, more expensive editions no longer available.

60€ still available.

Many folks going digital confirmed.

 

[Deleted member 2785]

Ni No Kuni also had some shortages... buyers are just getting very conservative about day 1 buys hoping for quick replen but pubs are also conservative in building replen stock. No one wants to be on the hook for investory if a game doesn't do well.

 

[Deleted member 437]

Benji MatPiscatella

Do you guys have insight on what the deal was between Sony and Amazon. For a day or two there, you couldn't preorder GOW at all, and ALL PSN money cards and PS Plus cards were out of stock. This was the same across Amazon UK and Canada too. It seemed like at once, all this stuff was just unavailable.

People are saying GOW had an effect with Amazon running out of PSN cards, but I dunno. Doesn't seem like it with how huge Amazon is.

edit: Just checked, Amazon Canada is still pretty effed up. Gow can't be pre-ordered, and it seems like PSN money cards have been completely removed.

 

[Apex88]

GoW seems primed to be a breakthrough title for Sony 1st party in terms of digital attach rate. Critical reception, brand recognition, the genre and size of the game, plus current and potential future retail stock issues. All points to big digital sales.

I believe Sony mentioned digital attach rate in their HZD PR. So we should get it for GoW. Sometimes the UK chart PR mentions it too, despite not (officially) tracking digital in their GFK charts.

As for Labo. I've a relation in the target demographic but her focus is 100% Fortnite.....watching streams as much as playing. The Labo creations are also rather basic, to the point where many in the 7-11 age range, could get bored rather quickly. At the same time the skill and time needed to build Labo could be beyond those at the younger age range. So you have an expensive product, which parents will need to help out with (I'm sure they won't want to waste $60+ letting their kids destroy it!), while there's no guarantee it will entertain beyond an afternoon or two.

 

[Deleted member 2785]

Fortnite is causing a lot of volatility in accessories and gamecards.

 

[Benji]

Fortnite is causing a lot of volatility in accessories and gamecards.

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It's moving hardware as well. Even more so than lots of people are aware of (though you already know that)

 

[Deader2818]

Not speaking nationally but I know in my area Gamestop is flying through PSN cards like crazy because of fortnite and Headsets for both consoles as well.

I think Mat said something before about Fortnite moving systems as well and I believe that is very true.

I don't have nearly as much insight as Mat and Benji but locally does seem like GoW might have stock issues at Gamestop.

 

[Deleted member 2785]

It's moving hardware as well. Even more so than lots of people are aware of (though you already know that)

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Seems to be the primary driver of sales at the moment.

 

[v_iHuGi]

It's moving hardware as well. Even more so than lots of people are aware of (though you already know that)

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That little game moving Ps4s and Xbox Ones like a big boy.

Epic is proud.

 

[Benji]

Seems to be the primary driver of sales at the moment.

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Yup. A funny example off the top of my head that just puts this sort of stuff into perspective.

I'm talking to a consumer who just bought a new PS4 and a copy of Far Cry 5
Me: Far Cry 5 huh? Seems like a great pick up for the new console.
Consumer: Yeah, looks cool and all.
Me: So is it Far Cry 5 that made you take the jump in?
Consumer: Nah, I'm just getting it to play co-op with a friend. I'm buying the PS4 for Fortnite


Its crazy how huge it is.

 

[cakely]

Yup. A funny example off the top of my head that just puts this sort of stuff into perspective.

I'm talking to a consumer who just bought a new PS4 and a copy of Far Cry 5
Me: Far Cry 5 huh? Seems like a great pick up for the new console.
Consumer: Yeah, looks cool and all.
Me: So is it Far Cry 5 that made you take the jump in?
Consumer: Nah, I'm just getting it to play co-op with a friend. I'm buying the PS4 for Fortnite


Its crazy how huge it is.

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I would have literally never predicted this.

 

[Benji]

I would have literally never predicted this.

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Me either until Fortnite blew up. It was the sort of thing that comes out of nowhere and no one really could have predicted in much honesty.

Sometimes things just explode

 

[Deader2818]

Yup. A funny example off the top of my head that just puts this sort of stuff into perspective.

I'm talking to a consumer who just bought a new PS4 and a copy of Far Cry 5
Me: Far Cry 5 huh? Seems like a great pick up for the new console.
Consumer: Yeah, looks cool and all.
Me: So is it Far Cry 5 that made you take the jump in?
Consumer: Nah, I'm just getting it to play co-op with a friend. I'm buying the PS4 for Fortnite


Its crazy how huge it is.

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Pretty much how most of my days go lol.

 

[phantomx]

So, I think we can go to high confidence that GoW will be the biggest exclusive launch on PS4 so far. Only question is how high is the sky.

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So...you aren't prepared to say that GoW will end up being the best selllng ps4 exclusive (beating a Naughty Dog game :O)...or that it's just bizarrely frontloaded in sales...

:P

 

[RexNovis]

Yup. A funny example off the top of my head that just puts this sort of stuff into perspective.

I'm talking to a consumer who just bought a new PS4 and a copy of Far Cry 5
Me: Far Cry 5 huh? Seems like a great pick up for the new console.
Consumer: Yeah, looks cool and all.
Me: So is it Far Cry 5 that made you take the jump in?
Consumer: Nah, I'm just getting it to play co-op with a friend. I'm buying the PS4 for Fortnite


Its crazy how huge it is.

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I've never felt more out of touch. I just do not understand the appeal of the game. It comes across as a confusing crazy mess to me. And yet it is basically the biggest damn thing in the world right now. I've just accepted I'm an ancient relic who cannot comprehend modernity at this point.

 

[Benji]

I've never felt more out of touch. I just do not understand the appeal of the game. It comes across as a confusing crazy mess to me. And yet it is basically the biggest damn thing in the world right now.

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To be honest I agree. I've tried both PUBG and Fortnite and neither did it for me, but it's clearly doing something right to take off like this ya know

 

[phantomx]

I can say this much. The reserves from gamestop are way ahead of Monster Hunter and Far Cry 5.

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PS4 and XB1 combined.

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Nationwide. I can provide how I know through PM if needed.

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Hm...how is GoW comparing to what you witnessed with Mario Odyssey, then....?

 

[RexNovis]

To be honest I agree. I've tried both PUBG and Fortnite and neither did it for me, but it's clearly doing something right to take off like this ya know

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I mean you'd assume so yea. But I can't for the life of me tell what that is. I've never felt so disconnected from the mainstream gamer consciousness as I do now with these games taking off the way they have. I just don't get the appeal. At all.

 

[Deader2818]

From what I remember it was comparable and Mario being a little less as far as Reserves go. That one I can't speak for nationwide though and only can compare regionally. Install base likely played a big part though.

 

[Majiebeast]

I've never felt more out of touch. I just do not understand the appeal of the game. It comes across as a confusing crazy mess to me. And yet it is basically the biggest damn thing in the world right now. I've just accepted I'm an ancient relic who cannot comprehend modernity at this point.

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To be honest I agree. I've tried both PUBG and Fortnite and neither did it for me, but it's clearly doing something right to take off like this ya know

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I think its time for early submission to the 40 year old's home, i hear they eat dinner at 4PM.

 

[Deleted member 2785]

Kids these days amirite

 

[Benji]

Edit nvm

 

[v_iHuGi]

Me either until Fortnite blew up. It was the sort of thing that comes out of nowhere and no one really could have predicted in much honesty.

Sometimes things just explode

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Also helps you dont need Plus to play it.

Basically you get a PS4 and you're set to go.

Game is likely helping Sony moving buck loads of Ps4s WW month in month out.

 

[RexNovis]

Just to be clear, I'm not by any means dismissing the games or trying to diminish the massive success they've enjoyed. As Benji says they are clearly doing something right I just can't put my finger on what that is personally. I've just accepted they aren't my cup of tea and that I am clearly in the extreme minority on that. It's just weird not having any frame of reference personally as to why specifically they are as successful as they are from a design standpoint.

Kids these days amirite

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Yep those rascals don't know how to appreciate good old fashioned game design. Why back in my day we had to put quarters in our machines to make em go. Those were the days.

I think its time for early submission to the 40 year old's home, i hear they eat dinner at 4PM.

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Ooh! Do I get to eat jello all day? If so sign me up!

 

[N.Domixis]

Sony needs a fortnite bundle to kickstart their sales.

 

[Deleted member 2785]

And for goodness' sakes don't wonder if Fortnite will impact the upside potential of a new AAA traditional game around here. We know how that goes.

 

[RexNovis]

Does anyone else find it mildly hilarious that Sony paraded Paragon as a big exclusive deal for them and relegated Fortnite to being a footnote given how things turned out? I sure as hell do. Just goes to show you how nuts this industry is.

 

[Deleted member 887]

Just to be clear, I'm not by any means dismissing the games or trying to diminish the massive success they've enjoyed. As Benji says they are clearly doing something right I just can't put my finger on what that is personally. I've just accepted they aren't my cup of tea and that I am clearly in the extreme minority on that. It's just weird not having any frame of reference personally as to why specifically they are as successful as they are from a design standpoint.



Yep those rascals don't know how to appreciate good old fashioned game design. Why back in my day we had to put quarters in our machines to make em go. Those were the days.



Ooh! Do I get to eat jello all day? If so sign me up!

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These two games just hit at the right time. You look on twitch and some big name is always playing it and that filters down to the viewers.

I also think a big thing is the moment to moment gameplay in these games are always exciting/different. While the objective doesn't change the moment to moment gameplay is exciting.

I haven't played fortnite, but with PUBG man once you get down to like the last 15 people. That shit feels tense lol.

 

[ethomaz]

Me either until Fortnite blew up. It was the sort of thing that comes out of nowhere and no one really could have predicted in much honesty.

Sometimes things just explode

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Do you really not expected a Epic game being successful even after they added a complete and not bugged Battle Royale mode? Well I expected no less than that since announce... I'm more surprised with PUBG success.

 

[Benji]

Do you really not expected a Epic game being successful even after they added a complete and not bugged Battle Royale mode? Well I expected no less than that since announce... I'm more surprised with PUBG success.

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You didn't expect Fortnite to be as big as it is.

No one did. Not even Epic.

I'm not surprised its a successful game.

But Fortnite isn't just successful. It's one of the biggest games in the history of industry, zero hyperbole

 

[ethomaz]

You didn't expect Fortnite to be as big as it is.

No one did. Not even Epic.

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Hum... I never expected it to have less than 30 million players (you can consider that big or small)... so I don't know where is the expectations for a F2P game made by Epic with fast gameplay and colorful art style.

There are three games this generation I thought it will be massive: Destiny, Overwatch and now Fortnite... the developers behind them knows how to cater massive population (sad Bungie fucked the sequel but that is another story and I miss Destiny in my life).

 

[Bitch Pudding]

Fortnight's development in the last couple of months is epic, if Twitch metrics is any indication:

https://www.twitchmetrics.net/g/33214-fortnite

Not sure though if right now Sony should invest in a bundle, seems to be profiting from that game anyhow. In addition they profit from all that GoW hype. We should see the biggest April in PlayStation history.

 

[legend166]

As far as Labo goes, I'm assuming Nintendo knows that you're not going to sell a ridiculous amount of kits during April so they're keeping their powder dry for a Christmas marketing push when lots of people are actually buying toys. On the other hand, it could just be Nintendo being Nintendo. If it's basically dead by September you might have trouble getting retailers to actually dedicate shelf space to it so that's a problem.

In general I'm pretty disappointed with how they've handled things in the first half of this year. I think they missed a trick to keep momentum going. I'm not even just talking about releases, even things like OS updates, Virtual Console, etc, etc, could have continued to drive that enthusiasm.

It also doesn't help that the entire genre which is absolutely blowing up right now has no presence on their platform. They should have backed up a dump truck to Epic by now to get Fortnite.

 

[Cthulhu_Steev]

I've never felt more out of touch. I just do not understand the appeal of the game. It comes across as a confusing crazy mess to me. And yet it is basically the biggest damn thing in the world right now. I've just accepted I'm an ancient relic who cannot comprehend modernity at this point.

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Me neither (actually, I get the appeal but they aren't for me) but then I've never been an online multiplayer guy and could never see the appeal of Quake, COD etc. I'm just happy that it shoves more money into the industry for the games I personally love.

I also love watching these crazes evolve as bystander, you can't really force this stuff it just ... happens then takes off in no time.

 

[Saint-14]

Well, it seems GoW will do crazy from those comments, I was already expecting it to do 10 million.