• iOS/Safari issues when launching the site from mobile home screens should now be fixed! A2HS button compatibility on Android Firefox has also been fixed! Add some purple to your home screen today.

March 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, April 17th

SnowFlakeCake

Banned
Member
Oct 25, 2017
516
I think just the hype alone means RDR2 is going to start off selling a stupid amount of copies, I can't imagine the marketing budget allocated to such a game. R* releases are rare, GTA V is soon enough going to have been 5 years ago. The marketing muscle will be huge and it's R* so it is going to be a great game. It's not going to do GTA V numbers but it sure the fuck ain't doing less anything anything else releasing this year, I can't see a scenario where it is not Number 1 for the year.

In terms of exclusives Smash will sell much better than anything that has been announced so far, the only competition it could have would be Pokemon. Nintendo first party sells better than most 3rd party games, they are the toppest tier when it comes to sales.

I've spent the whole day playing GOW and man it's good, really fucking good. I know it's not going to sell 10 million or whatever but I do hope it sells enough to make Sony happy and let SSM do what they want next game. I find most games pretty shit these days and games hyped so much usually disappoint, but this one is amazing and cannot stop playing. Hope it breaks 1 million first month in NA and sees growth in EU!
 
Oct 25, 2017
2,009
There is no room to breathe in September with DQXI coming out, so Spider-Man will falter, clearly....:(
Hah! yea to be honest I’m pretty worried about DQXI... I hope it does well enough to ensure future entries get localized but I really think the localization delay and staggered world release was a very poor decision from SE in the modern globalized market.

I know I’ll be picking it up for sure so that’s at least one sale!
 

MatPiscatella

The NPD Group - Video Game Industry Analyst
Verified
Oct 25, 2017
2,009
Carlsbad, CA
You don’t think Spider-man will make the cut? That’s surprising. How come? What’s your thought process there?
Superhero games, traditionally, have a cap for what they can sell. Arkham City is the highpoint so far, and I don't think Arkham City revs plus a bit are enough to hit top 10 this year.

Now, Spider-Man could have outlier success, but then again it's only on one platform.

So, yeah. It could swing onto the list. But forecast vs prophecy and all that.
 
Oct 28, 2017
340
Minneapolis
Superhero games, traditionally, have a cap for what they can sell. Arkham City is the highpoint so far, and I don't think Arkham City revs plus a bit are enough to hit top 10 this year.

Now, Spider-Man could have outlier success, but then again it's only on one platform.

So, yeah. It could swing onto the list. But forecast vs prophecy and all that.
Though you could also argue that superheroes - particularly Marvel superheroes - have never been more popular. Might sell me a PS4 if reviews are strong. Has a chance, indeed.

It's crazy that GTAV is still gonna be top 10 in 2018. o.O
 
Oct 25, 2017
2,009
Superhero games, traditionally, have a cap for what they can sell. Arkham City is the highpoint so far, and I don't think Arkham City revs plus a bit are enough to hit top 10 this year.

Now, Spider-Man could have outlier success, but then again it's only on one platform.

So, yeah. It could swing onto the list. But forecast vs prophecy and all that.
That makes sense.there is indeed some very stiff competition this year for a top 10 slot so either way I think it’ll be a tight race between many of the platform exclusive titles.

Personally, my thinking is that Spider-Man as a much stronger brand name on a mass market level (than Batman) especially with the success of the new MCU version. I also think super hero media in general is in a more mainstream consciousness level now than it was when the Arkham series was starting out.

The Dark Knight movie series was phenomenally successful but I see the franchise of MCU and can’t help but feel it has given super heroes a much broader appeal than they’ve ever enjoyed before.

So, provided the game reviews well, I could see it becoming the new benchmark for super hero related games media. But perhaps that’s just me being overly optimistic about the size of the new broader audience the modern super hero media has cultivated.
 
Nov 2, 2017
2,062
Italy
That is too pessimistic, NL sold over 5 million in the west.
It needed many years to archivie that, AC is a game that sells with legs, not with a big launch (expect in Japan where the launch is also big)

Not to mention that, even if it really sells 2 million in USA only in 2018, that would most likely be not enough to chart in TOP 10.
 
Oct 25, 2017
13,323
What about Labo predictions for April.

I see something relatively low like ~#10

and we get a Titanfall 1 March NPD like thread full of fun.
 
Oct 27, 2017
481
Superhero games, traditionally, have a cap for what they can sell. Arkham City is the highpoint so far, and I don't think Arkham City revs plus a bit are enough to hit top 10 this year.

Now, Spider-Man could have outlier success, but then again it's only on one platform.

So, yeah. It could swing onto the list. But forecast vs prophecy and all that.
lol
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,581
Italy
Animal Crossing Switch will be huge.

Animal Crossing built an on-going following over years thanks to New Leaf. If the jump to HD is big enough, it will be pretty big. Nintendo will also market the game like an event.
 
Oct 28, 2017
800
Just caught up on the thread.

I really thought Spider-Man would make it in Top10 list easy, but for so it would need atleast 8M+ sales I suppose.
Can Spier-Man manage that ? Or are we thinking 10+ already.
 
Oct 28, 2017
866
Just caught up on the thread.

I really thought Spider-Man would make it in Top10 list easy, but for so it would need atleast 8M+ sales I suppose.
Can Spier-Man manage that ? Or are we thinking 10+ already.

It wouldn't need that many sales in NPD to make it into the top 10. If it did that would be amazing for the industry. Each year has a different thresh hold to make it into the top 10 depending on the strength of releases.
 

Soony Xbone Uhh

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,162
Just caught up on the thread.

I really thought Spider-Man would make it in Top10 list easy, but for so it would need atleast 8M+ sales I suppose.
Can Spier-Man manage that ? Or are we thinking 10+ already.
This is an NPD topic.
No game will come close to selling 8 million this year.

Not sure if that ever happend. Maybe during the Call of Duty high days between MWII and MWIII


Something like 2 million is the number for making the top 10
 
Last edited:
Oct 25, 2017
6,124
This is an NPD topic.
No game will come close to selling 8 million this year.

Not sure if that ever happend. Maybe during the Call of Duty high days between MWII and MWIII


Something like 2 million is the number for making the top 10
Last year you needed something closer to 2.5m than 2m to enter the top10.

This year, it is going to be even worse. 3m will be needed imo.
 
Jan 27, 2018
2,149
What about Labo predictions for April.

I see something relatively low like ~#10

and we get a Titanfall 1 March NPD like thread full of fun.
The marketing until this point for LABO, at least in Europe, it seems absent.

I don't know if Nintendo is airing TV ads in the US. But a product offering a new concept, that is not targeted to a typical video game audience but to a more general one, it will depend a lot of the marketing invested.

My theory with this that Nintendo is using a soft launch strategy. They see LABO as the next big toy for kids this Christmas, so at this point, they only want to generate some buzz in the press and let the word of mouth work to consolidate the idea of a product with educational values. They only want to consolidate the idea of the product at this point.

And then for the Christmas period, when all the sales targeted to kids are concentrated, releasing a couple of new kits and then put all the money in a heavy campaign including TV ads.

NPD numbers for April are not as important as to see if LABO can explode in the Christmas season, becoming the next pop cultural phenomenon for an entire generation of kids.

Also, I see this a fundamental pillar than can work together with a new entry of 'Pokemon' released in November.

For most parents, the $300 price tag of Switch is a bitter pill to swallow if their kids want the new 'Pokemon' entry. But if they perceive that in addition to 'Pokemon' they have a product with a high educational value that can be beneficial for their kids, the whole perception of the price will change.

I see LABO as the "redesign" of Switch created to make of the console a product more attractive for the parents, changing the negative image of the price and the size.
 
Last edited:
Oct 26, 2017
3,068
I’ve never felt more out of touch. I just do not understand the appeal of the game. It comes across as a confusing crazy mess to me. And yet it is basically the biggest damn thing in the world right now. I’ve just accepted I’m an ancient relic who cannot comprehend modernity at this point.
I tried to play the game but there's no tutorial in it, right?

It just launched me in the middle of the action and I had no idea what to do, so I erased it.

Now a friend of mine that is the casualest of the casuals wants mento play with him and 3 other friends and I was like wow..
 

Soony Xbone Uhh

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,162
CoD and Red Dead Redempion easy will.
So it's generally agreed on, that the days CoD is selling 20 to 30 million WW during its lifetime per game are gone, but yet CoD will easily sell 8 million in the Us during the first 3 months alone?
GTA V shipped 32 million WW in Q3 2013 as the biggest game launch of all time.
 
Oct 28, 2017
226
A quick note on US console sales in March

It's unsurprising that Hardware sales volume in the US was down 30% YoY and software sales was down 18% due to a harsh comparison against March 17 when the Switch was released.

The relative sales volumes of game hardware was:
PS4: 1.15
Switch: 1
XBox One: 0.97
3DS: 0.43
YoY
PS4: -9%
Switch: -66%
XBox One: +24%
3DS: +19%
On the software side (digital not included):
By SKU, the top selling title was Far Cry 5 for PS4, followed by the same title for Xbox One. Kirby Star Allies (Nintendo) for the Switch took third place. By games, the top two titles in the month were Ubisoft's Far Cry 5 and Sony's (SNE) MLB: The Show, but combined, the two generated less revenue than last year's Zelda.
 
Oct 25, 2017
12,889
A quick note on US console sales in March

It's unsurprising that Hardware sales volume in the US was down 30% YoY and software sales was down 18% due to a harsh comparison against March 17 when the Switch was released.

The relative sales volumes of game hardware was:


YoY


On the software side (digital not included):
Awesome, thanks!

IIRC Switch sold 906k last March, meaning 44% of that would be ~398k. PS4 would then be 458k, and XB1 would be 386k?

If my math (and original number) is right (Edit: it's not) that does seem like a very high March for everyone.

Edit: this is why we don't math early in the morning. See below.
 
Last edited:
Oct 25, 2017
1,736
Awesome, thanks!

IIRC Switch sold 906k last March, meaning 44% of that would be ~398k. PS4 would then be 458k, and XB1 would be 386k?

If my math (and original number) is right that does seem like a very high March for everyone.
66% drop means 34% of last year. not 44%

So

PS4: 354k
Switch: 308k
XBO: 299k

Edit. Corrected the numbers
 
Last edited:
Oct 26, 2017
475
My prediction:
[PS4] 357k -3k
[XB1] 317k +18k
[NSW] 297k -11k


Not too far away for me, but I got the order wrong.
 
Last edited:
Mar 13, 2018
483
Awesome, thanks!

IIRC Switch sold 906k last March, meaning 44% of that would be ~398k. PS4 would then be 458k, and XB1 would be 386k?

If my math (and original number) is right that does seem like a very high March for everyone.
Switch is 34% not 44% lol.

That would mean
PS4 350K
Switch 305K
Xbox 277K

Oh wait my numbers would be wrong too lol
 
Oct 25, 2017
1,318
By SKU, the top selling title was Far Cry 5 for PS4, followed by the same title for Xbox One. Kirby Star Allies (Nintendo) for the Switch took third place[1]. By games, the top two titles in the month were Ubisoft's Far Cry 5 and Sony's (SNE) MLB: The Show[2]
So (1) Kirby > MLB but (2) MLB > Kirby... How?

------------------------

RIP my prediction :(
 
Oct 26, 2017
475
Come on guys, math is easy....

Switch did 906k in March 17. Minus 66% gives us 308k for March 18.
Multiplied with 1.15 gives 354k or PS4; and multiplied with .97 gives us 299k for XB1.