1. SnowFlakeCake

    SnowFlakeCake
    Banned Member

    I think just the hype alone means RDR2 is going to start off selling a stupid amount of copies, I can't imagine the marketing budget allocated to such a game. R* releases are rare, GTA V is soon enough going to have been 5 years ago. The marketing muscle will be huge and it's R* so it is going to be a great game. It's not going to do GTA V numbers but it sure the fuck ain't doing less anything anything else releasing this year, I can't see a scenario where it is not Number 1 for the year.

    In terms of exclusives Smash will sell much better than anything that has been announced so far, the only competition it could have would be Pokemon. Nintendo first party sells better than most 3rd party games, they are the toppest tier when it comes to sales.

    I've spent the whole day playing GOW and man it's good, really fucking good. I know it's not going to sell 10 million or whatever but I do hope it sells enough to make Sony happy and let SSM do what they want next game. I find most games pretty shit these days and games hyped so much usually disappoint, but this one is amazing and cannot stop playing. Hope it breaks 1 million first month in NA and sees growth in EU!
     
  2. RexNovis

    RexNovis
    Member

    Hah! yea to be honest I’m pretty worried about DQXI... I hope it does well enough to ensure future entries get localized but I really think the localization delay and staggered world release was a very poor decision from SE in the modern globalized market.

    I know I’ll be picking it up for sure so that’s at least one sale!
     
  3. MatPiscatella

    MatPiscatella
    The NPD Group - Video Game Industry Analyst Verafied

    Superhero games, traditionally, have a cap for what they can sell. Arkham City is the highpoint so far, and I don't think Arkham City revs plus a bit are enough to hit top 10 this year.

    Now, Spider-Man could have outlier success, but then again it's only on one platform.

    So, yeah. It could swing onto the list. But forecast vs prophecy and all that.
     
  4. Kittenz

    Kittenz
    Member

    Though you could also argue that superheroes - particularly Marvel superheroes - have never been more popular. Might sell me a PS4 if reviews are strong. Has a chance, indeed.

    It's crazy that GTAV is still gonna be top 10 in 2018. o.O
     
  5. RexNovis

    RexNovis
    Member

    That makes sense.there is indeed some very stiff competition this year for a top 10 slot so either way I think it’ll be a tight race between many of the platform exclusive titles.

    Personally, my thinking is that Spider-Man as a much stronger brand name on a mass market level (than Batman) especially with the success of the new MCU version. I also think super hero media in general is in a more mainstream consciousness level now than it was when the Arkham series was starting out.

    The Dark Knight movie series was phenomenally successful but I see the franchise of MCU and can’t help but feel it has given super heroes a much broader appeal than they’ve ever enjoyed before.

    So, provided the game reviews well, I could see it becoming the new benchmark for super hero related games media. But perhaps that’s just me being overly optimistic about the size of the new broader audience the modern super hero media has cultivated.
     
  6. MatPiscatella

    MatPiscatella
    The NPD Group - Video Game Industry Analyst Verafied

    I can see it happening, sure.
     
  7. NSESN

    NSESN
    Member

    Nobody else believes in Animal Crossing?
     
  8. Eh, the series is not that big in USA. Most sales comes from Japan...
    It would be a miracle if it chart in TOP 20.
     
  9. NSESN

    NSESN
    Member

    That is too pessimistic, NL sold over 5 million in the west.
     
  10. DQXI will live on in our hearts.
     
  11. New Fang

    New Fang
    Member

    Are the March numbers late?
     
  12. It needed many years to archivie that, AC is a game that sells with legs, not with a big launch (expect in Japan where the launch is also big)

    Not to mention that, even if it really sells 2 million in USA only in 2018, that would most likely be not enough to chart in TOP 10.
     
  13. MatPiscatella

    MatPiscatella
    The NPD Group - Video Game Industry Analyst Verafied

    No. Come out Tuesday.
     
  14. Majiebeast

    Majiebeast
    Member

    The only numbers people really care about are Mat's hours played in The Show 18.
     
  15. v_iHuGi

    v_iHuGi
    Member

    The true story of March!
     
  16. limshowron

    limshowron
    Banned for multiple alt accounts Member

    Xbox won!!!!!!!!






    Won is Latin for no npd leaks are available try again Tuesday.
     
  17. MatPiscatella

    MatPiscatella
    The NPD Group - Video Game Industry Analyst Verafied

    Uh nevermind that lol
     
  18. Mory Dunz

    Mory Dunz
    Member

    What about Labo predictions for April.

    I see something relatively low like ~#10

    and we get a Titanfall 1 March NPD like thread full of fun.
     
  19. slavesnyder

    slavesnyder
    Member

    good point. that could be the dark horse/dog/rascal/elephant/...
     
  20. Cthulhu_Steev

    Cthulhu_Steev
    Member

    lol
     
  21. OG_Thrills

    OG_Thrills
    Member

    I have never looked forward to an NPD as much as this one.
     
  22. Zedark

    Zedark
    Member

    I, too, look forward to seeing how Kirby did in March!

    But seriously, what are you looking forward to exactly in the March NPD?
     
  23. Why this particular month?

    November and December are generally the more exciting months. But March?

    Did anything big release last month?
     
  24. Saint-14

    Saint-14
    Member

    Ay folks can give us some info on the GoW launch?
     
  25. darkwing

    darkwing
    Member

    it is just ok
     
  26. bane833

    bane833
    Member

    With a campaign i´d say it could be a head to head race. In the end everything depends on how much RDR 2 is going to blow up compared to the first one.
     
  27. sfortunato

    sfortunato
    Member

    Animal Crossing Switch will be huge.

    Animal Crossing built an on-going following over years thanks to New Leaf. If the jump to HD is big enough, it will be pretty big. Nintendo will also market the game like an event.
     
  28. Shubh_C63

    Shubh_C63
    Member

    Just caught up on the thread.

    I really thought Spider-Man would make it in Top10 list easy, but for so it would need atleast 8M+ sales I suppose.
    Can Spier-Man manage that ? Or are we thinking 10+ already.
     
  29. Jade1962

    Jade1962
    Member


    It wouldn't need that many sales in NPD to make it into the top 10. If it did that would be amazing for the industry. Each year has a different thresh hold to make it into the top 10 depending on the strength of releases.
     
  30. Soony Xbone Uhh

    Soony Xbone Uhh
    Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account Member

    This is an NPD topic.
    No game will come close to selling 8 million this year.

    Not sure if that ever happend. Maybe during the Call of Duty high days between MWII and MWIII


    Something like 2 million is the number for making the top 10
     
  31. Shubh_C63

    Shubh_C63
    Member

    Oh no I was talking about Top10 in 2018 Year. Should have clarified that.
     
  32. I think a rumored battle royale mode will sell much more than a campaign.

    Also, RDR will win WW and most assuredly LTD, but USA 2018 I'm giving the edge to BLOPS.
     
  33. Zedark

    Zedark
    Member

    If they are adding a Battle Royale mode in place of a campaign then it's gonna sell more, not less, than it would have otherwise. As Spekkeh said, in NPD I don't see RDR2 beating COD, WW it might.
     
  34. Lelouch0612

    Lelouch0612
    Member

    Last year you needed something closer to 2.5m than 2m to enter the top10.

    This year, it is going to be even worse. 3m will be needed imo.
     
  35. Epilexia

    Epilexia
    Member

    The marketing until this point for LABO, at least in Europe, it seems absent.

    I don't know if Nintendo is airing TV ads in the US. But a product offering a new concept, that is not targeted to a typical video game audience but to a more general one, it will depend a lot of the marketing invested.

    My theory with this that Nintendo is using a soft launch strategy. They see LABO as the next big toy for kids this Christmas, so at this point, they only want to generate some buzz in the press and let the word of mouth work to consolidate the idea of a product with educational values. They only want to consolidate the idea of the product at this point.

    And then for the Christmas period, when all the sales targeted to kids are concentrated, releasing a couple of new kits and then put all the money in a heavy campaign including TV ads.

    NPD numbers for April are not as important as to see if LABO can explode in the Christmas season, becoming the next pop cultural phenomenon for an entire generation of kids.

    Also, I see this a fundamental pillar than can work together with a new entry of 'Pokemon' released in November.

    For most parents, the $300 price tag of Switch is a bitter pill to swallow if their kids want the new 'Pokemon' entry. But if they perceive that in addition to 'Pokemon' they have a product with a high educational value that can be beneficial for their kids, the whole perception of the price will change.

    I see LABO as the "redesign" of Switch created to make of the console a product more attractive for the parents, changing the negative image of the price and the size.
     
  36. Thorrgal

    Thorrgal
    Banned Member

    I tried to play the game but there's no tutorial in it, right?

    It just launched me in the middle of the action and I had no idea what to do, so I erased it.

    Now a friend of mine that is the casualest of the casuals wants mento play with him and 3 other friends and I was like wow..
     
  37. CoD and Red Dead Redempion easy will.
     
  38. Soony Xbone Uhh

    Soony Xbone Uhh
    Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account Member

    So it's generally agreed on, that the days CoD is selling 20 to 30 million WW during its lifetime per game are gone, but yet CoD will easily sell 8 million in the Us during the first 3 months alone?
    GTA V shipped 32 million WW in Q3 2013 as the biggest game launch of all time.
     
  39. Magicpork

    Magicpork
    Member

    A quick note on US console sales in March

    It's unsurprising that Hardware sales volume in the US was down 30% YoY and software sales was down 18% due to a harsh comparison against March 17 when the Switch was released.

    The relative sales volumes of game hardware was:
    YoY
    On the software side (digital not included):
     
  40. skittzo0413

    skittzo0413
    Member

    Awesome, thanks!

    IIRC Switch sold 906k last March, meaning 44% of that would be ~398k. PS4 would then be 458k, and XB1 would be 386k?

    If my math (and original number) is right (Edit: it's not) that does seem like a very high March for everyone.

    Edit: this is why we don't math early in the morning. See below.
     
  41. MLB doing MLB things.
     
  42. KillerMan91

    KillerMan91
    Member

    66% drop means 34% of last year. not 44%

    So

    PS4: 354k
    Switch: 308k
    XBO: 299k

    Edit. Corrected the numbers
     
  43. skittzo0413

    skittzo0413
    Member

    Whoops okay I knew my numbers looked way high. Will edit.
     
  44. Hammer24

    Hammer24
    Member

    My prediction:
    [PS4] 357k -3k
    [XB1] 317k +18k
    [NSW] 297k -11k


    Not too far away for me, but I got the order wrong.
     
  45. JSG87

    JSG87
    Member

    Switch is 34% not 44% lol.

    That would mean
    PS4 350K
    Switch 305K
    Xbox 277K

    Oh wait my numbers would be wrong too lol
     
  46. skittzo0413

    skittzo0413
    Member

    I like to give 110%!
     
  47. Majiebeast

    Majiebeast
    Member

    I once again completely underestimated sales.
     
  48. jeromeSF

    jeromeSF
    Member

    Switch: 308k
    PS4: 354k (308*1.15)
    Xbox: 299k (308*0.97)
     
  49. chobel

    chobel
    Member

    So (1) Kirby > MLB but (2) MLB > Kirby... How?

    ------------------------

    RIP my prediction :(
     
  50. Hammer24

    Hammer24
    Member

    Come on guys, math is easy....

    Switch did 906k in March 17. Minus 66% gives us 308k for March 18.
    Multiplied with 1.15 gives 354k or PS4; and multiplied with .97 gives us 299k for XB1.