March 2019 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, April 16th (See Staff Post)

Calamari41 · Apr 22, 2019

Benji said:
I've never asked for SilverX to be moderated and I'm not advocating for it now. The disappointing thing is that the user actually does have some good analysis at times

But constantly quoting me over and over again and essentially boiling your statements down to how you are secretly so much better than me at this is a quick way to make sure I never interact with you again. SilverX can post whatever he wants. I just dont have to read it

Love your contributions Benji, and I hope you don't think I was trying to call you out or tell you what to do or anything like that, I was more responding to others.

To get back to actual sales talk, what did you see regarding Yoshi's Crafted World? I think that Kirby Star Allies is the benchmark that would be expected for that game, what do you think?

Wandu · Apr 22, 2019

cw_sasuke said:
I wouldnt worry about this - Summer will likely be quite slow for non-Switch systems but i expect both MS/Sony to very aggressive this Holiday season to enter the next year with as much momentum as possible for the new systems.

Either way, all three will do good given the software coming this year. PS4/XB1 declines are expected for the 6th year on the market anyway. Might be off topic, but do we know when the Earnings reports are coming? This month for all three right?

Benji · Apr 22, 2019

Calamari41 said:
Love your contributions Benji, and I hope you don't think I was trying to call you out or tell you what to do or anything like that, I was more responding to others.

Oh there might be a lot of posts I'm not seeing. I shouldn't have derailed the thread but it is what it is.

I'm expected to just always stay silent and not speak my mind about something. I dont see how anything I've said is moderation worth but if it is. Fuck it ban me

Calamari41 · Apr 22, 2019

Benji said:
Oh there might be a lot of posts I'm not seeing. I shouldn't have derailed the thread but it is what it is.

I'm expected to just always stay silent and not speak my mind about something. I dont see how anything I've said is moderation worth but if it is. Fuck it ban me

You're overreacting, buddy. Nobody has said anything like that.

Sagadego17 · Apr 22, 2019

Benji said:
Oh there might be a lot of posts I'm not seeing. I shouldn't have derailed the thread but it is what it is.

I'm expected to just always stay silent and not speak my mind about something. I dont see how anything I've said is moderation worth but if it is. Fuck it ban me

no don't get ban! FIRE THE STAFF THEN!

Andri · Apr 22, 2019

Wandu said:
Either way, all three will do good given the software coming this year. PS4/XB1 declines are expected for the 6th year on the market anyway. Might be off topic, but do we know when the Earnings reports are coming? This month for all three right?

Deleted member 3017 · Apr 22, 2019

SilverX said:
Then I apologize if they took it that way which I never meant to do. But they have typically shown no interest on the how and why of the sales numbers and when asked they have given rather vague responses. I have disagreed with them during the "Everyone has done well" commentary for the finer details of each monthly performance.

In fact, that is all I have ever wanted to discuss. Outside of the Switch because it feels like an entirely different path than Sony and MS. But I am sorry for upsetting anyone with my post which I was just getting down to the performance of the older consoles this year.

Benji and Mat both do a fine job explaining their positions each month. The fact that you don't agree with their analysis doesn't change that.

With that said, you do bring up some interesting points in your original post today.

OfficerRaichu15 · Apr 22, 2019

Benji said:
Oh there might be a lot of posts I'm not seeing. I shouldn't have derailed the thread but it is what it is.

I'm expected to just always stay silent and not speak my mind about something. I dont see how anything I've said is moderation worth but if it is. Fuck it ban me

I think you can speak back but don't get banned please. You do so much for this community through your insights and analysis. Your love for movies has brought many great discussions as well!

Bitch Pudding · Apr 22, 2019

Benji said:
Eh I'm thinking of requesting a permaban anyways tbh

I love you Benji!

(Says literally drunk Bitch)

Benji · Apr 22, 2019

Sagadego17 said:
no don't get ban! FIRE THE STAFF THEN!

The staff here had always been amazing to me I have no complaints on them. No need to turn it around on them

Deleted member 13101 · Apr 22, 2019

Reposting for a new page:

Official Staff Communication

Let's end the callouts and accusations now and focus on our collective love for sales trends. Thank you.

Sagadego17 · Apr 22, 2019

Wonderment said:
Reposting for a new page:

Official Staff Communication

Let's end the callouts and accusations now and focus on our collective love for sales trends. Thank you.

fine.

Deleted member 3017 · Apr 22, 2019

Benji said:
Eh I'm thinking of requesting a permaban anyways tbh

Please no. Just take a break for a bit if you need to.

Wetflix · Apr 22, 2019

Mario Sales seemed to have a good impact on the Switch for March. I'm actually curious about next month though. Benji said some mysterious things about April.

Skittzo · Apr 22, 2019

Anyway, I'm really curious to see how Switch hardware does in April, with very little in the way of new software but a huge smattering of big, well known ports. Ports and remasters aren't really big hardware drivers but I want to see if the sheer volume of them in this month are making any significant waves.

Also does anybody know how Labo VR has been doing?

cw_sasuke · Apr 22, 2019

Wetflix said:
Mario Sales seemed to have a good impact on the Switch for March. I'm actually curious about next month though. Benji said some mysterious things about April.

What mysterious things ? All i remember is him saying that Switch might not take every months this year as easy as some of us might expect.

skittzo0413 said:
Anyway, I'm really curious to see how Switch hardware does in April, with very little in the way of new software but a huge smattering of big, well known ports. Ports and remasters aren't really big hardware drivers but I want to see if the sheer volume of them in this month are making any significant waves.

Also does anybody know how Labo VR has been doing?

Switch is quickly heading into a situation where the sales of the evergreen hits are enough to keep up the momentum in addition of whatever is getting released on the eShop every week/month. The lack of "big"retail releases doesnt tell the whole story. There is alot of content heading to Switch every week that is keeping the user base active, but that dont necessarily be reflected in the NPDs outside of the hw data we get.

Deleted member 249 · Apr 22, 2019

skittzo0413 said:
Anyway, I'm really curious to see how Switch hardware does in April, with very little in the way of new software but a huge smattering of big, well known ports. Ports and remasters aren't really big hardware drivers but I want to see if the sheer volume of them in this month are making any significant waves.

Also does anybody know how Labo VR has been doing?

I hope Labo VR is doing well, it's the first really good one they have put out IMO, and the extent to which it works is actually surprising.

Wandu · Apr 22, 2019

Andri said:

Thanks for this. I always knew this was gonna be a good week.

April 24 - MS earnings report and Persona 5 R news
April 25 - Nintendo earnings report and Persona 5 S news
April 26 - Sony earnings report and Days Gone releases

Yeah definitely gonna be a good week for me on Era.

Benji · Apr 22, 2019

Wetflix said:
Mario Sales seemed to have a good impact on the Switch for March. I'm actually curious about next month though. Benji said some mysterious things about April.

Looks like it was one thing I mentioned in my predictions video. Mario Day sales front loaded the month a bit

For example Switch had huge sales this past week and substantially outsold the PS4.

Skittzo · Apr 22, 2019

Benji said:
Looks like it was one thing I mentioned in my predictions video. Mario Day sales front loaded the month a bit

For example Switch had huge sales this past week and substantially outsold the PS4.

Can you tell if Labo VR has had any noticeable impact beyond past Labo releases? It seems like it's been the best received so far, though of course retailers will now be much warier about ordering them in large amounts.

Cess007 · Apr 22, 2019

Can't remember the last time a Sales thread had a Staff post warning. Wow.

Aaaanyway, it seems it will be a good year for the Switch and than the PS4/XBO are entering the twilight years. I feel Sony has it easier this year to still make some considerable sales due the PS4 not having a price cut in years.

Benji · Apr 22, 2019

skittzo0413 said:
Can you tell if Labo VR has had any noticeable impact beyond past Labo releases? It seems like it's been the best received so far, though of course retailers will now be much warier about ordering them in large amounts.

So yeah I'll comment on this

Labo VR started out the gate better than I expected, however retail shipments were very small. Retailers were very hesitant to commit to ordering a lot after they felt frankly burned by the Original Labo kits.

So i wouldn't expect a ton. Should perform better than the Vehicle Kit though

gundamkyoukai · Apr 22, 2019

I mean there are different aspect of sales discussion .
If we talking about numbers that is one aspect and talking about profitability that is another .
Right now switch is doing great in both .
MS seem to be trying to get more sales with there constant price promotion and deals .
While it looks like Sony looking at profitability more than anything else.
Either way each company doing something different at this point in time.

Sagadego17 · Apr 22, 2019

Benji any rumbling on price drop on a Xbox One s with disc drive soon? want to get one for games like Rare Replay and dead rising 3

hussien-11 · Apr 22, 2019

El Manco said:
LTD sales
PS4: 29.1M
XB1: 25M
NSW: 11.5M

So, in the US:

PS4 is selling 448K a month.
Xbox One is selling 385K a month.
Switch is selling 460K a month.

Switch is the fastest selling system in the US market this generation up to this point, followed closely by the PS4.

(numbers are rounded and launch considered a full month).

Skittzo · Apr 22, 2019

Benji said:
So yeah I'll comment on this

Labo VR started out the gate better than I expected, however retail shipments were very small. Retailers were very hesitant to commit to ordering a lot after they felt frankly burned by the Original Labo kits.

So i wouldn't expect a ton. Should perform better than the Vehicle Kit though

Thanks, yeah I kinda expected its potential would be hindered by retailers ordering much smaller amounts. It's kinda crazy how much of a misfire the original Labo was. I wonder if it would've gone a lot better if they waited to launch all 4 packs together.

Deader2818 · Apr 22, 2019

Sagadego17 said:
Benji any rumbling on price drop on a Xbox One s with disc drive soon? want to get one for games like Rare Replay and dead rising 3

It was just in sale for $50 off.

With the discless system launching at $250 I doubt you'll see a permanent drop soon.

Sagadego17 · Apr 22, 2019

Deader2818 said:
It was just in sale for $50 off.

With the discless system launching at $250 I doubt you'll see a permanent drop soon.

damn

Zedark · Apr 22, 2019

Benji said:
Looks like it was one thing I mentioned in my predictions video. Mario Day sales front loaded the month a bit

For example Switch had huge sales this past week and substantially outsold the PS4.

Very interesting, thanks for the insight! It does make sense that sales would be front-loaded towards Mario week and that late March/early April suffered a bit, but, as you theorised, that later on the sales would recover to previous momentum levels. It would have been strange had Switch lost its momentum out of the blue after sustaining strong sales on the back of Smash momentum for more than two months, but it seems like that might not be the case from your observation about the past week.

April in general will be interesting. PS4 has Days Gone, which could definitely do very well, so Switch taking that month is not a lock, especially with the minor slump early in the month. Could be a close race I think.

Please don't perma-ban :(

Andri · Apr 22, 2019

Wandu said:
Thanks for this. I always knew this was gonna be a good week.

April 24 - MS earnings report and Persona 5 R news
April 25 - Nintendo earnings report and Persona 5 S news
April 26 - Sony earnings report and Days Gone releases

Yeah definitely gonna be a good week for me on Era.

Dont forget Endgame is this week too.

Deleted member 249 · Apr 22, 2019

Andri said:
Dont forget Endgame is this week too.

Plus the big Game of Thrones episode.
Also Mortal Kombat 11 and Days Gone.
Huge week for pop culture lol.

Wandu · Apr 22, 2019

Phantom Thief said:
Plus the big Game of Thrones episode.
Also Mortal Kombat 11 and Days Gone.
Huge week for pop culture lol.

I did forget about those. Man this week is pretty damn significant lol.

Skittzo · Apr 22, 2019

Phantom Thief said:
Plus the big Game of Thrones episode.
Also Mortal Kombat 11 and Days Gone.
Huge week for pop culture lol.

I like how corporate earnings reports are now pop culture.

Deleted member 249 · Apr 22, 2019

skittzo0413 said:
I like how corporate earnings reports are now pop culture.

To be fair, I only listed pop culture stuff :P

Wandu said:
I did forget about those. Man this week is pretty damn significant lol.

It's gonna be big

Andri · Apr 22, 2019

skittzo0413 said:
I like how corporate earnings reports are now pop culture.

Just think what that means.

People like Mat are now Hipsters.
He liked Earnings Reports before they were cool.

julian · Apr 22, 2019

skittzo0413 said:
Thanks, yeah I kinda expected its potential would be hindered by retailers ordering much smaller amounts. It's kinda crazy how much of a misfire the original Labo was. I wonder if it would've gone a lot better if they waited to launch all 4 packs together.

I wouldn't be shocked if Labo VR ends up pushing sales of the older kits. I think a lot of people didn't really understand what those kits were like and going by the Labo VR thread, people seem surprised by the whole building process.

That's assuming there are any units to buy. As Benji mentioned, doesn't seem like it was well stocked. My local Best Buy didn't even have the full VR kit and they're a huge location.

Deleted member 3017 · Apr 22, 2019

I must be a hipster (I'm not, I'm just lame), because the only thing I care about this week is SteamWorld Quest. You can take your Avengers and your Mortal Kombats and your Games of Thrones and shove 'em

Deleted member 249 · Apr 22, 2019

OrbitalBeard said:
I must be a hipster (I'm not, I'm just lame), because the only thing I care about this week is SteamWorld Quest. You can take your Avengers and your Mortal Kombats and your Games of Thrones and shove 'em

You are very lame

;)

Skittzo · Apr 22, 2019

julian said:
I wouldn't be shocked if Labo VR ends up pushing sales of the older kits. I think a lot of people didn't really understand what those kits were like and going by the Labo VR thread, people seem surprised by the whole building process.

That's assuming there are any units to buy. As Benji mentioned, doesn't seem like it was well stocked. My local Best Buy didn't even have the full VR kit and they're a huge location.

It would be interesting if it had an effect on older kits but I just think retailers have been too far soured on the idea for any of them to make much headway. The brand (even though it's a year old) might just be too toxic.

OrbitalBeard said:
I must be a hipster (I'm not, I'm just lame), because the only thing I care about this week is SteamWorld Quest. You can take your Avengers and your Mortal Kombats and your Games of Thrones and shove 'em

Haven't you heard? It's all about the earnings reports now.

And Dragon's Dogma ports.

Deleted member 3017 · Apr 22, 2019

skittzo0413 said:
Haven't you heard? It's all about the earnings reports now.

And Dragon's Dogma ports.

oh yeah, I have Dragon's Dogma coming tomorrow lol

julian · Apr 22, 2019

skittzo0413 said:
It would be interesting if it had an effect on older kits but I just think retailers have been too far soured on the idea for any of them to make much headway. The brand (even though it's a year old) might just be too toxic.

Haven't you heard? It's all about the earnings reports now.

And Dragon's Dogma ports.

We will know a whole lot more after the Zelda and Mario updates. Looking forward to it.

fiendcode · Apr 22, 2019

asd202 said:
19M will not be happening for FY18 IMO. I still think it will be somewhere between 17-18M. For FY2019 I expect the target to be 20M again.

17m is too low given the known CYQ1 sell-through. More likely 18m is the floor rather than ceiling and 19m very much achievable.

Moltres006 · Apr 22, 2019

OrbitalBeard said:
I must be a hipster (I'm not, I'm just lame), because the only thing I care about this week is SteamWorld Quest. You can take your Avengers and your Mortal Kombats and your Games of Thrones and shove 'em

Do not disrespect my buddy boxboy.

Deleted member 3017 · Apr 22, 2019

Moltres006 said:
Do not disrespect my buddy boxboy.

good lord, I thought that was out next week!

Andri · Apr 22, 2019

OrbitalBeard said:
I must be a hipster (I'm not, I'm just lame), because the only thing I care about this week is SteamWorld Quest. You can take your Avengers and your Mortal Kombats and your Games of Thrones and shove 'em

You might be a hipster, but at least you are so young as to be exited for a game about cardbatteling mechs.

My most hyped game of the week is Imperator Rome, a game about ruling tribes and republics 20 years after alexander died.

ShaDowDaNca · Apr 22, 2019

Can't find software sales.

SinCityAssassin · Apr 22, 2019

Deader2818 said:
Its about what's expected this late in the gen. Hell there was supply issues for PS4 for a few months during tax return season.

That doesn't make it any less huge. Everyone is expecting moderate to heavy drops YoY, that hasn't changed. But if people are going to spin it as "hey the drop this month isn't that bad!!!" Then fundamentally they are trying to spin the narrative.

plusaflag · Apr 22, 2019

TeKFaN said:
Can't find software sales.

If I am not mistaken, NPD will make them available tomorrow. Also, I don't know if you're new to the sales scene on ERA, but if you are, I prefer to 'warn' you: all we get during these monthly reports are some dollar figures for each segment (hardware, software, accessories, etc.), a top 10 software for each platform and maybe a candy left or right.

Skittzo · Apr 22, 2019

plusaflag said:
If I am not mistaken, NPD will make them available tomorrow. Also, I don't know if you're new to the sales scene on ERA, but if you are, I prefer to 'warn' you: all we get during these monthly reports are some dollar figures for each segment (hardware, software, accessories, etc.), a top 10 software for each platform and maybe a candy left or right.

To whom do I address my complaints about not receiving my candy last month?

donny2112 · Apr 22, 2019

NPD Prediction Results - March 2019

Units

1. Lelouch0612 - 27,000
2. WestEgg - 36,000
3. mjw - 41,000
4. Myriotes - 45,000
5. neroxyr - 47,000
5. score01 - 47,000
7. Wander_ - 48,000
8. James - 50,000
9. Elandyll - 51,000
9. GamingCJ - 51,000
9. Sangetsu-II - 51,000
9. ShellshockPrime - 51,000
9. Welfare - 51,000
14. CosmicBolt - 53,000
15. Ryng Manuel Tolu - 54,000
16. Bitch Pudding - 56,000
16. Corporate Clown - 56,000
16. kyo2004 - 56,000
19. DeuceGamer - 61,000
19. KillerMan91 - 61,000
19. MrTired - 61,000
19. Zedark - 61,000
23. Jeean - 64,000
24. donny2112 - 65,000
24. klanar - 65,000
26. TurnoftheCentury - 66,000
27. Pachter - 69,000
27. ScopehJ - 69,000
29. Slarvax - 70,000
30. MasterChumly - 71,000
31. Hammer24 - 74,000
32. El Manco - 75,000
33. gargles - 76,000
34. Kaveri - 78,000
34. Kozy - 78,000
36. Astrogamer - 81,000
36. DanR93 - 81,000
36. HighJump - 81,000
39. 404LinkNotFound - 82,000
40. julian - 83,000
40. plusaflag - 83,000
42. useyourloaf - 86,000
43. slavesnyder - 87,000
44. Sterok - 89,000
45. Andromeda - 90,000
46. cakely - 91,000
47. Expy - 93,000
48. Asuka3+1 - 96,000
48. kowalski - 96,000
50. jroc74 - 97,000
51. pitseleh - 101,000
52. ConfusedGamer - 102,000
52. Limabean01 - 102,000
52. MANUELF - 102,000
55. Caiops - 106,000
55. Doctor Mario - 106,000
55. Keith Stat - 106,000
58. dean_rcg - 109,000
59. Mercenary09 - 111,000
60. Nocturnal - 124,000
60. Wandu - 124,000
62. Darth Smurf X - 127,000
62. Moltres006 - 127,000
64. Hucast - 128,000
65. ThatRandomCliff - 131,000
66. Menx64 - 137,000
67. Davy - 141,000
68. Fdkn - 142,000
69. MysticGon - 146,000
70. Ron Paul - 172,000
71. kjtc1979 - 199,000
72. Harris Katz - 262,000
73. SinCItyAssassin - 292,000
74. Deunan - 317,000
74. Kill3r7 - 317,000

Points

Code:

     March 2019                      Overall 2019 Top (2/3)
01.  Lelouch0612            123.18   Lelouch0612              230.81
02.  WestEgg                118.63   Expy                     222.92
03.  mjw                    115.88   Kaveri                   221.52
04.  Myriotes               113.80   Myriotes                 220.18
05.  score01                112.71   CosmicBolt               219.20
06.  neroxyr                111.12   Andromeda                218.55
07.  Wander_                109.11   WestEgg                  217.72
08.  James                  106.96   Welfare                  217.31
09.  Welfare                106.10   kyo2004                  216.62
10.  GamingCJ               105.84   Zedark                   216.28
11.  Elandyll               105.01   klanar                   214.14
12.  ShellshockPrime        104.82   404LinkNotFound          207.27
13.  Sangetsu-II            104.82   Wander_                  206.64
14.  CosmicBolt             104.00   slavesnyder              206.46
15.  Corporate Clown        103.63   Jeean                    206.02
16.  Ryng Manuel Tolu       103.17   KillerMan91              203.84
17.  Bitch Pudding          102.89   Hammer24                 203.63
18.  Zedark                 102.72   score01                  203.40
19.  Slarvax                102.68   donny2112                203.38
20.  DanR93                 102.57   James                    203.31
21.  kyo2004                102.53   ShellshockPrime          202.85
22.  DeuceGamer             102.46   MrTired                  201.91
23.  Jeean                  102.32   TurnoftheCentury         200.85
24.  MrTired                102.24   pitseleh                 198.69
25.  Astrogamer             102.13   MANUELF                  198.62
26.  El Manco               102.13   useyourloaf              198.20
27.  KillerMan91            102.11   Astrogamer               197.31
28.  TurnoftheCentury       102.03   Moltres006               197.10
29.  donny2112              101.99   Slarvax                  197.09
30.  klanar                 101.80   Elandyll                 196.60
31.  MasterChumly           101.72   gargles                  195.94
32.  Pachter                101.67   wilmbreak                195.45
33.  Hammer24               101.59   jroc74                   195.34
34.  gargles                101.58   Ryng Manuel Tolu         195.05
35.  ScopehJ                101.54   DanR93                   194.64
36.  julian                 101.19   Bitch Pudding            194.48
37.  Kaveri                 101.16   Nocturnal                194.08
38.  404LinkNotFound        101.07   DeuceGamer               194.02
39.  useyourloaf            100.92   ThatRandomCliff          193.89
40.  cakely                 100.90   Sterok                   193.74
41.  HighJump               100.44   Corporate Clown          193.64
42.  plusaflag              100.43   Darth Smurf X            193.53
43.  Kozy                   100.29   Keith Stat               192.69
44.  pitseleh                99.71   El Manco                 192.36
45.  jroc74                  99.45   MasterChumly             192.22
46.  MANUELF                 99.01   ConfusedGamer            192.10
47.  dean_rcg                98.99   cakely                   191.83
48.  Expy                    98.88   julian                   191.52
49.  slavesnyder             98.40   Davy                     190.90
50.  Limabean01              98.19   ScopehJ                  189.69

Congratulations, Lelouch0612! :D

March 2019 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, April 16th (See Staff Post)

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