Sheep we appreciate what you do. However go the pork route of stuff. Do increases and decreases.
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March 2019 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, April 16th (See Staff Post)
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Yea, the actual numbers are, but there are ways to present them in a way that isn't how they sell them to clients.
The fact that NPD is so secretive with its hardware data is a result of the lobbying of its biggest clients (hardware manufacturers and publishers). NPD wouldn't lose money by disclosing monthly hardware sales---not even by disclosing best-selling games and their monthly sales. Indeed, NPD clients pay to receive detailed and deep reports with demographics, temporal and geographical breakdowns; national hardware and software sales are a tiny fraction of those reports. If NPD was going to release monthly hardware and software sales (say, top 20) at the national level they wouldn't lose any client. Of course, its work must be awarded and therefore it doesn't make sense to disclose every piece of data---a pretty small preview of reports, though, should be disclosed for the general public and for journalists who aren't able to pay for the service.
It's same as E3---manufacturers and publishers want to have full control of the information that is publicly disclosed hence they started closed-door shows where they could control access. Sales data might paint a bad picture if you're performing not-so-greatly (EA... Hello?) and some publishers lobbied such that NPD didn't release any data whatsoever.
What we're getting nowadays thanks to the work of Mat is just a tiny fraction of the tiny fraction of data we were getting until a few years ago. Mat, of course, must filter what he's saying in order to not piss off manufacturers and publishers. Instead, the best way to disclose information is to just give raw numbers and users and journalists might come up with their own analysis.
It's same as E3---manufacturers and publishers want to have full control of the information that is publicly disclosed hence they started closed-door shows where they could control access. Sales data might paint a bad picture if you're performing not-so-greatly (EA... Hello?) and some publishers lobbied such that NPD didn't release any data whatsoever.
What we're getting nowadays thanks to the work of Mat is just a tiny fraction of the tiny fraction of data we were getting until a few years ago. Mat, of course, must filter what he's saying in order to not piss off manufacturers and publishers. Instead, the best way to disclose information is to just give raw numbers and users and journalists might come up with their own analysis.
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Let's pray that Sword and Shield will introduce a lot of new Pokémon otherwise we will run out of them coming holiday season. :p
I vote for pokedex.
When sales are toooo high, all is need is: 1+charizard, and that would mean 1006k or 1.000.006 unities sold.
There are 809 Pokémon listed in the pokedex. Nintendo will probably release another 150\200 this Gen, so we are good to go.
When sales are toooo high, all is need is: 1+charizard, and that would mean 1006k or 1.000.006 unities sold.
There are 809 Pokémon listed in the pokedex. Nintendo will probably release another 150\200 this Gen, so we are good to go.
To their defence, these 'numbers' are figures, even if the context is vague.
I mean, all of us could perfectly identify the consoles they were refering to with little to no mental effort at all. It was evident.
I don't think a multinational company which wouldn't lose a dime because of random numbers posted on a niche forum needs someone defending it.
They wont introduce 150+.
156 is the very max we got in one gen, and that was both because In the DS times it was much easier to make new ones from a production standpoint(no 3D models ingame) and because BW had a full generational reset, with no non gen 5 pokemon besides postgame, something already deconfirmed for Sword/Shield.
The intention is not to defend anyone, I am well aware of the difference in weight between us and them.
I just wanted to underline that leaking figures on the internet initiates a chain process. The forum is no closed environment. Soon, everyone will have these figures at disposal for free.
I think another good action would be excluding the NPD name of these threads. Just use hardware and software sales in America.
Nah instead of 1+Charizard just say something like Lillipup + Emboar.
It's a tricky situation for the NPD, which is why they've been trying to let nuggets of information "leak" here as a pressure release valve. If they crack down too hard, then they get into a situation where someone just tweets the numbers out from a burner Twitter account.
It wasn't exactly sneaky before, anyway. The trick is to casually weave the various Pokemon into conversation, rather than just out and out saying their names.
Numbers getting killed was kinda expected just looking at how PS4/XBO numbers would develop over the next couple months until the next gen consoles arrives....and especially in comparison with the Switch.
It limits your marketing and PR talks quite a bit when the public has access to these numbers and can call you out on BS lol.
End of an Sales-Era ...
It limits your marketing and PR talks quite a bit when the public has access to these numbers and can call you out on BS lol.
End of an Sales-Era ...
OP
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Based on past comments, NPD is fine releasing the hardware data as long as all manufacturers give it the go-ahead. The reason they stopped some years ago is overwhelmingly likely due to Sony, as Nintendo and Microsoft kept releasing hardware sales after the public release of hardware stop. Nintendo and Microsoft may have taken away their permission in the ensuing years, but based on past comments, all three have to give the go-ahead to have public releases of hardware sales.
Mat works at NPD, but he's been amazingly lenient over the years. Straight numbers have always been a no-no, but he hasn't seemed to been overly restrictive or tried to be controlling of other ways people have tried to share tidbits. Obviously, he can't turn a blind eye to everything, but he's been remarkably good at overlooking much of what has made it into the thread, in my opinion.
All that said, something may be going on differently in 2019. Magicpork's 2019 leak posts were removed, and now the posts in this thread. We'll see if things can work to another equilibrium point, as the year goes on.
This whole thread is useless without any sort of concrete information. There's a reason why NPD threads have been dying over the years. Because no one ever wants to talk about dollar percentage rank increases and vague chart rankings based on said dollar rankings. People want information, not guestimations like what NPD spews out
To be fair, we haven't had any of that for years. The only concrete information that we get comes directly from Nintendo, Sony, and Microsoft via press releases. Everything else is guessing or plugging old data into formulas to figure out order of magnitude estimates.
Yes I can totally see this theory just to allow the usual "next gen is coming but current gen is selling better than ever even in its last year!11" (when we all know sales are slowing down)
Yeah, that's what I said. The company is being lobbied by its clients which is no good.
The problem with Mat is that he can never ever release information that would put clients in a bad light. Hence, his information is filtered and just gives half of the picture. Of course it's not his fault as he's a NPD employee.
it's only a handful of posters here that even know them though. they are not widely disseminated ANYWHERE else. there are no articles about them, no youtube videos, etc.
in fact i got into an argument (years ago) on twitter once with a "games journalist" about the numbers because I used them in some argument. He was basically like "those are not official figures". Trying to explain their origin and that they were accurate was like talking to a wall, and why shouldn't it be? He kept just buntly replying to the effect "I could never use those numbers in a story I published". But I'd be the same if I wasn't one of the 50-100 "in" on the numbers.
you basically have to be one of the 50 people deep into sales age and in those threads.
Call me crazy but I feel like NPD could let this little corner go since it's so contained. My guess is the numbers this month were exact(to the thousands) rather than the usual percentages which lead to slightly inaccurate numbers (in fact the error grows over time, percentages on top of percentages) which are probably considered less threatening or even actionable.
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You're not crazy at all. But words travel.
And WCCFTech attracted 15 million monthly visitors at some point in 2016: https://www.techinasia.com/online-forum-transform-wccftech
Another example here.
Again, I am not defending anyone, NPD can fight for their meat themselves.
Regarding proprietary NPD data
Official Staff Communication
Hello everyone. We just wanted to comment officially on the removal of certain information: It's been brought to our attention that proprietary NPD data has been posted in these threads and that it's been proliferating widely in a way that is a growing problem for everyone involved.
We are asking y'all to help deescalate the situation and avoid having such data spread from here. We know we can't control what people do in private, but please avoid posting NPD numbers on this platform. We really don't want to ban anyone, but that will have to be the next step if things don't settle down. Thank you for your understanding.
We are asking y'all to help deescalate the situation and avoid having such data spread from here. We know we can't control what people do in private, but please avoid posting NPD numbers on this platform. We really don't want to ban anyone, but that will have to be the next step if things don't settle down. Thank you for your understanding.
So if numbers leak elsewhere like Twitter and are posted here after, is that allowed?
The complete banning of discussing leaks period would be asinine.
Mr Knut Oelsvinger, Tiffsdays off, wouldntstop in bad, imitation of flatfish
His part should say in honour bound:
Three quarks for Muster Mark!
His part should say in honour bound:
Three quarks for Muster Mark!
OP
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Really hope we get the hw leaks (and some sw leaks) trough some others channels (like twitter). Otherwise this is pretty sad day for Sales-ERA. Can't believe we have come to this. When I was lurker on the old site back in the day we still got even top 10 (individual by platform) numbers for top 10 and of course hw. Fucking video game industry being so secretive.
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I know that this could end anytime. Nothing's guaranteed. Past cannot predict the future. Etc. But this sentiment has been expressed dozens, if not hundreds, of times over the 15 years that I've participated in NPD predictions. This could be the last month. It may end tomorrow. However, don't write an epitaph before it's all said and done. (^_^)