To voice my opinion in a thread that isn't being filled with Raimi nonsense, I was talking with my friend about this and we came to the conclusion that there's too much money on the table for both parties to lose and too much fan ire to deal with.
The way I see it, there are three roads for Spidey now:
1) Spidey enters the Venom-verse: It's an easy thing for Sony to do, but it also means a lot of things that have been brought up by the two prior MCU movies have to now be avoided. Who is Aunt May dating? Where did the suit come from? What about all that shit about Spidey being an Avenger? Sony would have to willingly scrap all this backstory about Spider-Man just to have Spider-Man be in their universe. Now, they could just drop Spidey in and answer none of these questions, trying to play if off like Venom 2/non-MCU Spidey just has all these things. But, considering how much of Spidey's characterization and plot hinges on Tony, the Avengers, and MCU things, it'd be a real rough fit.
2a) Sony recasts: Sony totally could reboot Spider-Man for the 4th time in 15 years, but imagine the team that has to market such a reboot. They'd have to clarify that this Spider-Man isn't in the MCU, isn't Tom Holland, and is also someone you should definitely go see. People went with the reboot of the Andrew Garfield Spidey because no-one really liked him. People love the Tom Holland Spidey, so I think a reboot at the peak of the characters popularity is just a dumbass move.
2b) Disney willingly Poochies Spidey: Let's see how that'll go, just hastily removing a character with no mention of where they are, especially if said character is one of the lynchpins of your universe.
3) Disney and Sony broker a compromise: Considering how the reaction to this news has been to save this deal, both Disney and Sony would be foolish to ignore what the fans want, especially after the fans helped Sony their highest grossing movie of all time. Regardless of what the straw was, I think both parties should now realize that people want Spidey to remain in the MCU. While I think people are more than willing to rush to one of these studios' sides, Disney's upfront demand for 50% co-prod in exchange for a larger piece of the pie and Rothman's outright refusal instead of negotiation are two incredible dumbass moves. After today, Sony must realize that while Spidey alone is valuable, it was Marvel's creative direction that catapulted the character to a billion. I know, Spider-Verse is incredible, but look what happened to Cloudy With A Chance of Meatballs, The Lego Movie, The Smurfs, etc. I don't think one good film should excuse the series of mis-steps Avi Arad et al. made with Spidey (including firing Raimi).
At the end of the day, my dumbass amateur analysis is this: if Disney listened """to the fans""" about James Gunn, they should be listening to the fans about this.
Also, as a sidenote to the Raimi fanboys, I get that you love Spider-Man 2, but polluting every fucking thread about the MCU Spidey with variants of "MCU bad Raimi god" is retroactively making me turn on these films. These films are great films, but ardently insisting that every non-Raimi film is complete and total garbage is just shitposting and being annoying.