[PS4] 190K
[NSW] 145K
[XB1] 140K
Hello! This wall of numbers will be comparing the weekly average of April and May. Both month are 4 weeks long. I have gathered high selling software and any hardware deals for May to help show how the month might be impacted. You can go to previous prediction threads for the previous month's potential impacts
Code:
2012
Xbox 360 April: 236K / 4 = 59,000
Xbox 360 May: 160K / 4 = 40,000
Weekly average down 32%
PS3 April: 172K / 4 = 43,000
PS3 May: 125K / 4 = 31,250
Weekly average down 27%
3DS April: 128K / 4 = 32,000
3DS May: 116K / 4 = 29,000
Weekly average down 9%
Notable Releases in May
Xbox 360
Max Payne 3 [2 weeks]
Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon: Future Soldier [1 week]
PS3
Max Payne 3 [2 weeks]
Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon: Future Soldier [1 week]
3DS
3DS Midnight Purple $169
Code:
2013
Xbox 360 April: 130K / 4 = 32,500
Xbox 360 May: 114K / 4 = 28,500
Weekly average down 12%
PS3 April: 102K / 4 = 25,500
PS3 May: 85K / 4 = 21,250
Weekly average down 17%
3DS April: 114K / 4 = 28,500
3DS May: 115K / 4 = 28,750
Weekly average up 1%
Notable Releases in May
3DS
Donkey Kong Country Returns 3D [2 weeks]
Code:
2014
Xbox One April: 115K / 4 = 28,750
Xbox One May: 77K / 4 = 19,250
Weekly average down 33%
PS4 April: 199K / 4 = 49,750
PS4 May: 197K / 4 = 49,250
Weekly average down 1%
3DS April: 106K / 4 = 26,500
3DS May: 97K / 4 = 24,250
Weekly average down 8%
Xbox 360 April: 71K / 4 = 17,750
Xbox 360 May: 57K / 4 = 14,250
Weekly average down 20%
PS3 April: 35K / 4 = 8,750
PS3 May: 36K / 4 = 9,000
Weekly average up 3%
Notable Releases in May
Xbox One
$399 500GB Standalone SKU Announced For June 9th, May 13th (19 days affect May NPD, 3 weeks)
Watch Dogs [1 week] [363K]
Wolfenstein: The New Order [2 weeks]
PS4
Watch Dogs 500GB Bundle [1 week]
Watch Dogs [1 week] [583K]
Wolfenstein: The New Order [2 weeks]
Xbox 360
Watch Dogs [1 week] [172K]
Wolfenstein: The New Order [2 weeks]
PS3
Watch Dogs 500GB Bundle [1 week]
Watch Dogs [1 week] [138K]
Wolfenstein: The New Order [2 weeks]
Code:
2015
Xbox One April: 187K / 4 = 46,750
Xbox One May: 140K / 4 = 35,000
Weekly average down 25%
PS4 April: 175K / 4 = 43,750
PS4 May: 153K / 4 = 38,250
Weekly average down 13%
3DS April: 116K / 4 = 29,000
3DS May: 97K / 4 = 24,250
Weekly average down 16%
Notable Releases in May
Xbox One
Halo: The Master Chief Collection 500GB White Bundle $349 [1 week]
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt [275K] [2 weeks]
PS4
Best Buy Deal - Trade in Last Gen console and get $175 towards PS4 [1 week]
Witcher 3: Wild Hunt [2 weeks] [420K]
Code:
2016
Xbox One April: 168K / 4 = 42,000
Xbox One May: 107K / 4 = 26,750
Weekly average down 36%
PS4 April: 175K / 4 = 43,750
PS4 May: 207K / 4 = 51,750
Weekly average up 18%
3DS April: 75K / 4 = 18,750
3DS May: 77K / 4 = 19,250
Weekly average up 3%
Notable Releases in May
Xbox One
$50 Gift Cards All Month
Gamestop Deal - Free Game With Any Xbox One Purchased [1 week]
DOOM [3 weeks] [244K]
Overwatch [1 week] [158K]
PS4
Gamestop Deal - Trade in Xbox One or PS4 (Not an error) and get $250 towards PS4 May 9th - 29th (20 days in May NPD, 3 weeks)
Uncharted 4 500GB Limited Bundle $399 [3 weeks] [51K]
Uncharted 4 [3 weeks] [828K]
DOOM [3 weeks] [276K]
Overwatch [1 week] [203K]
3DS
2DS $79 [2 weeks]
Code:
2017
Xbox One April: 110K / 4 = 27,500
Xbox One May: 109K / 4 = 27,250
Weekly average down 1%
PS4 April: 206K / 4 = 51,500
PS4 May: 187K / 4 = 46,750
Weekly average down 9%
Notable Events in May
Switch
Supply constrained
Xbox One
Gamestop Deal - 1TB Models $299 May 7th - June 10th (21 days in May NPD, 3 weeks)
Every Retailer - 1TB Models $299 May 21st - June 17th (7 days in May NPD, 1 week)
Injustice 2 [2 weeks]
PS4
Injustice 2 [2 weeks]
Code:
2018 April Weekly Average
PS4: ~325K / 4 = 81,250
Switch: ~170K / 4 = 42,500
Xbox One: ~130K / 4 = 32,500
Notable Events in May
Switch
Hyrule Warriors Definitive Edition [3 weeks]
Xbox One
Xbox One S Price Cut $50 May 13th - May 19th [1 week] 500GB $229 / 1TB $249
500GB $199 @ GameStop for a few days
$50 gift card with every Xbox One X May 20th - May 26th [1 week]
State of Decay 2 with every Xbox One X [Best Buy/GameStop/Walmart] May 27th - June 2nd [1 week]
State of Decay 2 [2 weeks]
Dark Souls Remastered [2 weeks]
PS4
Detroit: Become Human [2 weeks]
Dark Souls Remastered [2 weeks]
Notes:
We have fully entered the slowest period of the year. There will be a bump in June but don't expect massive sales until September.
Xbox
Xbox One has not seen a good May yet thanks to the lack of (good) deals and continued slowed momentum off April. May 2017 saw the 1TB drop down to $299 at GameStop two weeks into the month and Microsoft dropped the price nationwide 2 weeks later. May 2018 saw a one week $50 price drop on the One S, 500GB $229 / 1TB $249, and a $50 gift card included with every One X purchase the week after. The following week, certain retailers bundled State of Decay 2 with every One X.
The Xbox One averages a decrease of -24%, with a minimum drop of -1% (2017) and a maximum decrease of -36% (2016).
Playstation
The PS4 doesn't drop as much in May compared to the XB1. 2014 and 2016 saw major releases in Watch Dogs and Uncharted 4 which kept sales flat from April (2014) and exceeding it (2016). 2015 and 2017 saw drops in the ~10% range, which shows the strength of the brand going into the Summer. May 2018 doesn't have much going for it and is coming off the massive God of War launch, which had 3 weeks of tracking in April.
All of that averages out to a decrease of -1%, with a rise of +18% (2016) and a maximum decrease of -13% (2015). Removing 2016 and the average falls to a more reasonable -8%.
Nintendo
The 3DS averages a decrease of -6%, with a maximum rise of +3% (2016) and a maximum decrease of -16% (2015). 3DS is another console that didn't drop much in May. It saw rises thanks to the launch of Donkey Kong (2013) and a price cut to the 2DS (2016), while the biggest drop (2015) was continued downturn from the N3DS launch in February.
Switch doesn't have anything massive in May this year so don't expect a boost in sales from April.
Recap
Sales continue to slow down in May from April. Sales can rise if there is a significant enough event like a price drop, massive release/bundle, or both.
The biggest May ever recorded back in the 7th gen was the Wii with 675K back in 2008. Second biggest? Wii again with 338K in 2007.
The biggest May ever recorded in the 8th gen is the PS4 with 207K in 2016. Second biggest? PS4 again with 197K in 2014.
