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May 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, June 12th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
You think July to September will do worst than Last year?
also with Smash in December Q4 can be carried by it, if they did 3M last time with Oddysey in November and Q4 only Bayo ports and Kirby, Q4 this FY carried by Smash and maybe Fire Emblem should do better.
Hell, worst be worst, they can pull a holiday (BF) only price cut for a short massive boost
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For now... yes.
I believe Q1 will a bit down from 1.93m last year but I rounded to 2m.
Oh nice!
Not too far off my predictions, was a little bit much generous on PS4 :X
PS4: |-12K|
NSW: |14K|
XB1: |4K|
Overall off by 30K
Detroit moving so many systems to hardcore QD fans PS4 just had its best May ever.....I wish lol. But hey I finally bought one just to play it.
If they ship 12 million in Q3 then Q4 is definitively gonna be way bigger than 3 million. 3 million is this year level, and after a big holiday + a better line up (Fire Emblem should be early 2019 + others games) they can even surpass 4 million.
I also see Q1 and Q2 being better than that, last year Switch was 2.9 million in Q2, i don't see Switch down YOY that quarter. We'll see how Q1 does.
11.63 million is SHIPPED worldwide, from October to December 2009.
3.81 million is SOLD in USA (not North America), only in December, while October/November/December combined are 5.58 million.
Well they are doing so many deals every month that it is hard to track.
Deals seems to look better than price cuts I guess.
Wii still shipped 4.22 million to ''others'' region during that holiday quarter. US is the strongest region of Switch (just like for Wii) so with that hypothetical 4 million US sales it's not gonna match those Wii ''others'' numbers either. Only region where it will have better shipments is Japan and even there Wii still had solid holiday numbers in 2009 and shipped over a million for quarter. I guess if they went all in and were willing to cut the price of the hw too there would be better chance but that then would cut to the profit forecast so I predict that they will just lower the hw forecast to more realistic number (like 18 million).
Do you have software numbers btw? Can you give us something like the hardware rankings?
Do not confuse USA with America. If they sell 4 million in USA, then America sales should probabily be something like 4.7 million, and shipments could be over 5 million. So something like:
5 million in America
4 million in "others"
2.5 million in Japan
For a total of 11.5 million worldwide , seem realistic to me.
This is what I predicted in the other thread. They are going to ship the 20 million no matter what. Retailers will be primed to order as many Switches as nintendo can provide in Q3 with the launches of pokemon and smash.
*arrogant
Please get with the time, that's the word we use now.
It all depends on the deals they offer this holiday. If they do 199€ with enough stock they could easily blow past 20 million ww.
Somewhere, a Kotaku editor is jamming his/her fist in the air and shouting: "NO!!"
"They" are a company.. thats like literally the reason they even exist..
Here is the performance of QD's other titles in their first NPD month:
Beyond: ~125k (26 days)
Heavy Rain: 220k (5 days)
Detroit has more days than HR so hopefully it beat it or got close
Beyond: ~125k (26 days)
Heavy Rain: 220k (5 days)
Detroit has more days than HR so hopefully it beat it or got close
He was being sarcastic guys. :D
Well that could of course always happen. You can't overship just because you want to though. You need retailers with too high expectations willing to buy huge amount of stock. Not to mention overshipping during holidays would probably affect to Q4 shipments.
Well I guess we will see. I just don't see how there would so insane growth to last year. Especially if they try to do this without price cut.
Were you expecting Q1 this year to beat Q1 last year? I was actually thinking if they end up flat they would have done well. The Switch had such a massive launch I wasn't expecting any growth Q1. I was expecting Q2 and Q3 to be better performers.
So unless I'm mistaken this is the best ever May for XB1 by 4k. Is that correct? Crazy that despite selling the best the console ever has during this month it still wasn't enough to bump them out of third place in unit sales. I'd wager they'll probably be second in revenue though.
Pretty crazy to see PS4s best May yet. Nice to see GoW at the top as well.
Switch and 20 million... I'm just gonna wait on that to see how Pokemon/Smash do. It always seemed like a high second year goal but we'll see.
XB1 is doing alright.
Switch and 20 million... I'm just gonna wait on that to see how Pokemon/Smash do. It always seemed like a high second year goal but we'll see.
XB1 is doing alright.
Some historical data (stolen from Welfare's post) to allow for better comparisons:
May
XBO:
2014 - 77k ($399 500GB Standalone SKU announced for June; Watch Dogs, Wolfenstein: TNO)
2015 - 140k (Halo: MCC Bundle; The Witcher 3)
2016 - 107k (50$ Gift cards and Free Game Deal @GS; Doom, Overwatch)
2017 - 109k ($299 Deal for 1TB Model at @GS and "every retailer"; Injustice 2)
2018 - 145k (Several Deals, State of Decay 2, DS:R)
PS4:
2014 - 197k (Watch Dogs Bundle; Watch Dogs, Wolfenstein: TNO)
2015 - 153k (Trade-in Deal @BB; The Witcher 3)
2016 - 207k (Trade-in Deal @GS, Uncharted 4 + Bundle; DOOM, Overwatch)
2017 - 187k (Injustice 2)
2018 - 223k (Detroit, God of Legs, DS:R)
NSW:
2017 - 165k (Launch boost & MK8D legs vs. supply constraints)
2018 - 167k (Hyrule Warriors, DK legs)
EDIT: updated version of the comparison
There are/were also rumors about illicit collusion regarding the production capacity. In April, there were even news about a class action suit:https://hothardware.com/news/samsung-hynix-and-micron-dram-class-action-suit-collusion
May
XBO:
2014 - 77k ($399 500GB Standalone SKU announced for June; Watch Dogs, Wolfenstein: TNO)
2015 - 140k (Halo: MCC Bundle; The Witcher 3)
2016 - 107k (50$ Gift cards and Free Game Deal @GS; Doom, Overwatch)
2017 - 109k ($299 Deal for 1TB Model at @GS and "every retailer"; Injustice 2)
2018 - 145k (Several Deals, State of Decay 2, DS:R)
PS4:
2014 - 197k (Watch Dogs Bundle; Watch Dogs, Wolfenstein: TNO)
2015 - 153k (Trade-in Deal @BB; The Witcher 3)
2016 - 207k (Trade-in Deal @GS, Uncharted 4 + Bundle; DOOM, Overwatch)
2017 - 187k (Injustice 2)
2018 - 223k (Detroit, God of Legs, DS:R)
NSW:
2017 - 165k (Launch boost & MK8D legs vs. supply constraints)
2018 - 167k (Hyrule Warriors, DK legs)
EDIT: updated version of the comparison
There are/were also rumors about illicit collusion regarding the production capacity. In April, there were even news about a class action suit:https://hothardware.com/news/samsung-hynix-and-micron-dram-class-action-suit-collusion
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With Smash and Pokémon, which are basicallythe third and second biggest Nintendo IP? I don't see why not. (by the way the biggest one is Mario, with Mario Kart, which only got a port, so even with pretty big sales, MK8 Deluxe still can't be as big as Pokémon or Smash, at least at launch... expecially at launch)
Last year Switch did 7.24 million and only had Mario Odyssey as a notable release during the holidays. Also maybe not a definitive pricedrop, but i surely can see some kind of promotions this christmas/Blackfriday.
Switch was 165K last year. Also PS4 looks like was 182K.
Well it's doesn't even matter what I expected. Nintendo most certainly expected to beat last years Q1 by good margin when they made that huge 20 million FY forecast.
Well like you said last year had Mario so that should offset Smash bros and so only big differentiating factor software wise will be Pokemon and it will be kinda spin off so we don't know will it resonate as much with consumers as traditional Pokemon games. Not to mention last year Splatoon 2 had just launched in July and Switch had also had Mario Kart during that fiscal year. This FY is completely empty of bigger first party titles before Pokemon.
Thanks, edited. The 187k number is from Welfare's post on the first page, where is your number from? The (?) just meant that there were, afaik, no (exclusive) events for PS4 in May 2017.
Y'all really pessimistic about this switch forecast. It's shipped altogether. Nintendo can basically be flat for 3 of the 4 quarter and then ship a lot more for Q3.