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May 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, June 12th

KillerMan91

KillerMan91

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,355
LordKano said:
i really don't get how what you're saying is contradicting what I said
Switch had three normal months (with really only one significant release in March) this year against a huge ass month last year, so it was a little bit down on Q1, and now comparing with April and May is the same since April last year had a huge ass release against nothing huge this year (since Labo will have its full selling potential during holidays). Nothing significant released in May last year or this year.

Things will start to move in favour of this year with this month of June and through the rest of the year.
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Your original post where you replied to post about Switch being down yoy so far:
LordKano said:
how surprising considering it literally launched last year
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I just showed that it isn't because of launch? it has fallen behind yoy after launch month not because of it. US was slightly down yoy after march, japan up and shipments globally up.
 

Deleted member 2791

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
19,054
KillerMan91 said:
Your original post where you replied to post about Switch being down yoy so far:


I just showed that it isn't because of launch? it has fallen behind yoy after launch month not because of it.
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I explained it in a later post but to be more precise it was in reference to the huge launch it had last year compared to the pretty normal, in comparison, schedule of this Q1.
 
Oldhand

Oldhand

Member
Oct 28, 2017
186
I do wonder when the correlation between a high visibility exclusive and sales uptick diminishes and pricing becomes a much stronger factor in shifting boxes.

Reasoning - take the case of Spiderman and PS4. In the early days, Bloodborne, Horizon Zero Dawn, Ratchet, Crash, Uncharted 4 etc would shift those sitting on the fence since there were still a large number of enthusiasts without PS4s. Now with Spiderman, realistically how many people would jump because of that launch that weren't already tempted by all the other exclusives to date? It's hard to believe that a gaming enthusiast in 2018 wouldn't have been swayed already by all the other great games.

At this point, the remaining pot of customers will likely become the price conscious consumer just looking for a cheap box for the kids, and so exclusives won't really shift the needle.

Too obvious or a load of bull?
 
MrTired

MrTired

Member
Oct 28, 2017
3,230
Oldhand said:
I do wonder when the correlation between a high visibility exclusive and sales uptick diminishes and pricing becomes a much stronger factor in shifting boxes.

Reasoning - take the case of Spiderman and PS4. In the early days, Bloodborne, Horizon Zero Dawn, Ratchet, Crash, Uncharted 4 etc would shift those sitting on the fence since there were still a large number of enthusiasts without PS4s. Now with Spiderman, realistically how many people would jump because of that launch that weren't already tempted by all the other exclusives to date? It's hard to believe that a gaming enthusiast in 2018 wouldn't have been swayed already by all the other great games.

At this point, the remaining pot of customers will likely become the price conscious consumer just looking for a cheap box for the kids, and so exclusives won't really shift the needle.

Too obvious or a load of bull?
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Look at last month results not only did the PS4 have record breaking April because of God of War but it also help sell a lot of PS4 pro's. So you just need exclusives that come out to universal acclaim.
 
cakely

cakely

Member
Oct 27, 2017
13,149
Chicago
I underestimated the PS4 again. My bad for not predicting that it would have it's best May NPD in year five. Silly me.
 

Deleted member 2785

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
2,119
Oldhand said:
I do wonder when the correlation between a high visibility exclusive and sales uptick diminishes and pricing becomes a much stronger factor in shifting boxes.
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High visibility exclusives have greatest impact at launch, pricing has greatest impact at tail.

But both are always meaningful, the extent of that meaning varying a bit month to month depending on what new titles are released and what price promotion occurs.

Other factors like seasonality and cross-plat releases come into play too, as well as lots of other things.

People always want to simplify into their being just ONE thing that matters, which is nonsense. Everything counts. Well, almost everything.
 
dragonbane

dragonbane

Member
Oct 26, 2017
4,585
Germany
Oldhand said:
I do wonder when the correlation between a high visibility exclusive and sales uptick diminishes and pricing becomes a much stronger factor in shifting boxes.

Reasoning - take the case of Spiderman and PS4. In the early days, Bloodborne, Horizon Zero Dawn, Ratchet, Crash, Uncharted 4 etc would shift those sitting on the fence since there were still a large number of enthusiasts without PS4s. Now with Spiderman, realistically how many people would jump because of that launch that weren't already tempted by all the other exclusives to date? It's hard to believe that a gaming enthusiast in 2018 wouldn't have been swayed already by all the other great games.

At this point, the remaining pot of customers will likely become the price conscious consumer just looking for a cheap box for the kids, and so exclusives won't really shift the needle.

Too obvious or a load of bull?
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Well Sony just had their best May ever thanks to 2 exclusives probably so yeah lol
 
Emilijo

Emilijo

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
494
Fourth month in a row PS4 on top. It should be on top in June, also thanks to Days of Play promotion.
 
Darth Smurf X

Darth Smurf X

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,037
Hoth, WI
lordlad said:
Somewhere, a Kotaku editor is jamming his/her fist in the air and shouting: "NO!!"
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Well that's an awfully heavy-handed, on-the-nose, [insert other buzz word used in every Detroit review available here], something-something-back-of-the-bus statement.

I kid. I'm just glad to see Detroit in the Top 3. It definitely deserves it... although #1 would have been better. It's my GotY so far. Also, PS4 not only doing gangbuster numbers with hardware, but having 2 exclusives in the Top 3? [insert Citizen Kane clapping GIF here]
 
N.Domixis

N.Domixis

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
9,208
RexNovis said:
So unless I'm mistaken this is the best ever May for XB1 by 4k. Is that correct? Crazy that despite selling the best the console ever has during this month it still wasn't enough to bump them out of third place in unit sales. I'd wager they'll probably be second in revenue though.
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Yeah, power doesn't matter to that many people also that price.
 
Ryng™

Ryng™

Member
Nov 2, 2017
3,641
Italy
Welfare said:
Where is 182K coming from? 187K was from a leak.
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using Pork ratio, having 167K for Switch also get 109K for XB1 and 182K for PS4. ( cause PS4 is 33% higher than Switch and XB1 13% lower)

Since 109K XB1 is the same as the old numbers, i think we should use 182K for PS4, but again those times there are always more than an estimate, what matter is that is not too different.
 
ianpm31

ianpm31

Member
Oct 27, 2017
6,529
Emilijo said:
Fourth month in a row PS4 on top. It should be on top in June, also thanks to Days of Play promotion.
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I imagine PS4 is outselling switch this year ww and Sony is estimating 16 million shipped and Nintendo is estimating 20 million. Either Sony was being extremely conservative with that number or Nintendo might have over estimated. Yeah I know Smash and Pokemon are this year but everything sells in the fall so I guess we'll see
 
Majiebeast

Majiebeast

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
2,090
ianpm31 said:
I imagine PS4 is outselling switch this year ww and Sony is estimating 16 million shipped and Nintendo is estimating 20 million. Either Sony was being extremely conservative with that number or Nintendo might have over estimated. Yeah I know Smash and Pokemon are this year but everything sells in the fall so I guess we'll see
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I think the insane success of God of War blind sided them.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Prophet of Truth - You’re my Numberwall
Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,914
2017 YTD (Rounded to nearest 10K)
PS4: 1.4M
NSW: 1.36M
XB1: 840K

2018 YTD (Rounded to nearest 10K)
PS4: 1.52M (+9%)
NSW: 1.2M (-12%)
XB1: 1.12M (+33%)

PS4 and XB1 will also have their best H1 (Jan-Jun) ever this year. XB1 will need to sell at least 160K and PS4 260K in June for this to happen. I expect both to smash those numbers next month.
 
Sonicfan059

Sonicfan059

Member
Mar 4, 2018
3,024
Welfare said:
2017 YTD (Rounded to nearest 10K)
PS4: 1.4M
NSW: 1.36M
XB1: 840K

2018 YTD (Rounded to nearest 10K)
PS4: 1.52M (+9%)
NSW: 1.2M (-12%)
XB1: 1.12M (+33%)

PS4 and XB1 will also have their best H1 (Jan-Jun) ever this year. XB1 will need to sell at least 160K and PS4 260K in June for this to happen. I expect both to smash those numbers next month.
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What the LTD gap at now? 3.3-3.5?

Golvellius said:
And Xbox had the highest growth compared to May 2017.
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That's because Xbox One had its worst year last year and PS4 it's best. I wonder what this year's growth is in comparison to 2016?
 

Deleted member 43446

User requested account closure
Banned
May 15, 2018
748
Oldhand said:
I do wonder when the correlation between a high visibility exclusive and sales uptick diminishes and pricing becomes a much stronger factor in shifting boxes.

Reasoning - take the case of Spiderman and PS4. In the early days, Bloodborne, Horizon Zero Dawn, Ratchet, Crash, Uncharted 4 etc would shift those sitting on the fence since there were still a large number of enthusiasts without PS4s. Now with Spiderman, realistically how many people would jump because of that launch that weren't already tempted by all the other exclusives to date? It's hard to believe that a gaming enthusiast in 2018 wouldn't have been swayed already by all the other great games.

At this point, the remaining pot of customers will likely become the price conscious consumer just looking for a cheap box for the kids, and so exclusives won't really shift the needle.

Too obvious or a load of bull?
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Spiderman ending up being as good as we expect plus a heavy marketing from Sony could bring a lot of casual players to buy a PS4. I see Comic book and cinematic universe fans being a primary target for Sony this fall.
 
Simba1

Simba1

Member
Dec 5, 2017
5,383
Myriotes said:
Some historical data (stolen from Welfare's post) to allow for better comparisons:

XBO:
2014 - 77k
2015 - 140k (Halo: MCC Bundle)
2016 - 107k (50$ Gift cards and Free Game GS Deal)
2017 - 109k ($299 Deal at several/every retailer)
2018 - 145k (Several Deals, State of Decay 2)

PS4:
2014 - 197k (Watch Dogs Bundle)
2015 - 153k (Trade-in Deal)
2016 - 207k (Trade-in Deal, Uncharted 4 + Bundle)
2017 - 187k
2018 - 223k (Detroit, God of Legs ;) )

NSW:

2017 - 165k (supply constrained)
2018 - 167k (Hyrule Warriors, DK legs)
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Could you pls post data and comparison for previous months of year also?
 
ItWasMeantToBe19

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
20,440
Darth Smurf X said:
Well that's an awfully heavy-handed, on-the-nose, [insert other buzz word used in every Detroit review available here], something-something-back-of-the-bus statement.

I kid. I'm just glad to see Detroit in the Top 3. It definitely deserves it... although #1 would have been better. It's my GotY so far. Also, PS4 not only doing gangbuster numbers with hardware, but having 2 exclusives in the Top 3? [insert Citizen Kane clapping GIF here]
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Detroit having androids sit at the back of the bus is now good because it sold fine.
 
ItWasMeantToBe19

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
20,440
I do hope that if Sony hires QD to another game, Sony has the courage to not filter out interview questions asking about QD suing journalists over journalists covering their harassment charges.

Sony's response to the QD stuff was legendary in its pathetic-ness. The only thing they did was have their PR people try to stop Cage from bragging about suing journalists (while never acknowledging that it was happening).

At least say you don't believe the reports instead of trying of just trying to pretend nothing is happening or has happened.
 
Miniature Kaiju

Miniature Kaiju

Member
Oct 27, 2017
7,139
Somewhere South
MatPiscatella said:
High visibility exclusives have greatest impact at launch, pricing has greatest impact at tail.

But both are always meaningful, the extent of that meaning varying a bit month to month depending on what new titles are released and what price promotion occurs.

Other factors like seasonality and cross-plat releases come into play too, as well as lots of other things.

People always want to simplify into their being just ONE thing that matters, which is nonsense. Everything counts. Well, almost everything.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

Not all high visibility exclusives are the same, too. Bloodborne and Horizon have much more core/enthusiast appeal, while something like Spider-Man has more casual appeal - it will reach people outside the normal gaming sphere. God of War probably had a lot of cross-over, since it's a strong, established brand with reach into the pop culture, that probably brought back a lot of lapsed gamers.
 

Myriotes

Member
Jan 30, 2018
532
Germany
Ryng Manuel Tolu said:
using Pork ratio, having 167K for Switch also get 109K for XB1 and 182K for PS4. ( cause PS4 is 33% higher than Switch and XB1 13% lower)

Since 109K XB1 is the same as the old numbers, i think we should use 182K for PS4, but again those times there are always more than an estimate, what matter is that is not too different.
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I don't know; this would be my math, depending on which numbers we assume to be given:

PS4 May 2017: 187k (assumed to be given)
PS4 May 2018: 187 * 1,19 = 222,53 (up 19% YOY)
NSW May 2018: 222,53 / 1,33 = 167,32 (because PS4 is 33% higher)
NSW May 2017: 167,32 / 1,01 = 165,66 (because it was up 1% YOY)

or:

NSW May 2017: 165k (assumed to be given, although I could not find the corresponding leak)
NSW May 2018: 165 * 1,01 = 166,65
PS4 May 2018: 166,65 * 1,33 = 221,64
PS4 May 2017: 221,64 / 1,19 = 186,26
 

Jildo Fisterfilly

Banned
Nov 1, 2017
289
mejin said:
we moved from a situation where people wondered when ps4 would be top hardware this year to what month ps4 can possibly lose. and some people still ask when sony will cut the price.
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Yes its crazy i thought switch will take 10 months this year. Never believed ps4 in its 5th year would dominate this hard breaking records month after month. With Spider-man release and price cut in holiday plus red dead Sony will have a great second half of the year.
 
Bunkles

Bunkles

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 26, 2017
5,663
Jildo Fisterfilly said:
Yes its crazy i thought switch will take 10 months this year. Never believed ps4 in its 5th year would dominate this hard breaking records month after month. With Spider-man release and price cut in holiday plus red dead Sony will have a great second half of the year.
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Yup, I thought for sure Switch would take every month this year. PS4 is a damn beast.
 
gueras

gueras

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
746
It Will be really hard for Xbox to change the game next gen. Us is their best country on sales. They are losing by 35% this month and 25% on the year even with new console and promotions... And when you think besides UK Xbox doesn't even exist worldwide anymore.
 
Guaraná

Guaraná

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,987
brazil, unfortunately
The American market seems to be quite healthy, all the consoles showed good sales during the month. Each according to their level, obviously, but still good sales for everyone.
 
Guaraná

Guaraná

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,987
brazil, unfortunately
ianpm31 said:
I imagine PS4 is outselling switch this year ww and Sony is estimating 16 million shipped and Nintendo is estimating 20 million. Either Sony was being extremely conservative with that number or Nintendo might have over estimated. Yeah I know Smash and Pokemon are this year but everything sells in the fall so I guess we'll see
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That's true, but like you said: Nintendo big guns are still yet to be shot, so we'll have to wait and see.
But either way, both should be presenting great numbers.
 
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