So I somehow unsubbed from the archive thread. Whoops! Was wondering where the thread was.
[NSW] 210K
[PS4] 135K
[XB1] 105K
Hello! This wall of numbers will be comparing the weekly average of April and May. Both month are 4 weeks long. I have gathered high selling software and any hardware deals for May to help show how the month might be impacted. You can go to previous prediction threads for the previous month's potential impacts.
Code:
2012
Xbox 360 April: 236K / 4 = 59,000
Xbox 360 May: 160K / 4 = 40,000
Weekly average -32%
PS3 April: 172K / 4 = 43,000
PS3 May: 125K / 4 = 31,250
Weekly average -27%
3DS April: 128K / 4 = 32,000
3DS May: 116K / 4 = 29,000
Weekly average -9%
Notable Releases in May
Xbox 360
Max Payne 3 [2 weeks]
Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon: Future Soldier [1 week]
PS3
Max Payne 3 [2 weeks]
Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon: Future Soldier [1 week]
3DS
3DS Midnight Purple $169
Code:
2013
Xbox 360 April: 130K / 4 = 32,500
Xbox 360 May: 114K / 4 = 28,500
Weekly average -12%
PS3 April: 102K / 4 = 25,500
PS3 May: 85K / 4 = 21,250
Weekly average -17%
3DS April: 114K / 4 = 28,500
3DS May: 115K / 4 = 28,750
Weekly average +1%
Notable Releases in May
3DS
Donkey Kong Country Returns 3D [2 weeks]
Code:
2014
Xbox One April: 115K / 4 = 28,750
Xbox One May: 77K / 4 = 19,250
Weekly average -33%
PS4 April: 199K / 4 = 49,750
PS4 May: 197K / 4 = 49,250
Weekly average -1%
3DS April: 106K / 4 = 26,500
3DS May: 97K / 4 = 24,250
Weekly average -8%
Xbox 360 April: 71K / 4 = 17,750
Xbox 360 May: 57K / 4 = 14,250
Weekly average -20%
PS3 April: 35K / 4 = 8,750
PS3 May: 36K / 4 = 9,000
Weekly average +3%
Notable Releases in May
Xbox One
$399 500GB Standalone SKU Announced For June 9th, May 13th (19 days affect May NPD, 3 weeks)
Watch Dogs [1 week] [363K]
Wolfenstein: The New Order [2 weeks]
PS4
Watch Dogs [1 week] [583K]
Wolfenstein: The New Order [2 weeks]
Xbox 360
Watch Dogs [1 week] [172K]
Wolfenstein: The New Order [2 weeks]
PS3
Watch Dogs [1 week] [138K]
Wolfenstein: The New Order [2 weeks]
Code:
2015
Xbox One April: 187K / 4 = 46,750
Xbox One May: 140K / 4 = 35,000
Weekly average -25%
PS4 April: 175K / 4 = 43,750
PS4 May: 153K / 4 = 38,250
Weekly average -13%
3DS April: 116K / 4 = 29,000
3DS May: 97K / 4 = 24,250
Weekly average -16%
Notable Releases in May
Xbox One
Halo: The Master Chief Collection 500GB White Bundle $349 [1 week]
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt [275K] [2 weeks]
PS4
Best Buy Deal - Trade in Last Gen console and get $175 towards PS4 [1 week]
Witcher 3: Wild Hunt [2 weeks] [420K]
Code:
2016
Xbox One April: 168K / 4 = 42,000
Xbox One May: 107K / 4 = 26,750
Weekly average -36%
PS4 April: 175K / 4 = 43,750
PS4 May: 207K / 4 = 51,750
Weekly average +18%
3DS April: 75K / 4 = 18,750
3DS May: 77K / 4 = 19,250
Weekly average +3%
Notable Releases in May
Xbox One
$50 Gift Cards All Month
Gamestop Deal - Free Game With Any Xbox One Purchased [1 week]
DOOM [3 weeks] [244K]
Overwatch [1 week] [158K]
PS4
Gamestop Deal - Trade in Xbox One or PS4 and get $250 towards PS4 May 9th - 29th (20 days in May NPD, 3 weeks)
Uncharted 4 500GB Limited Bundle $399 [3 weeks] [51K]
Uncharted 4 [3 weeks] [828K]
DOOM [3 weeks] [276K]
Overwatch [1 week] [203K]
3DS
2DS $79 [2 weeks]
Code:
2017
Xbox One April: 110K / 4 = 27,500
Xbox One May: 109K / 4 = 27,250
Weekly average -1%
PS4 April: 206K / 4 = 51,500
PS4 May: 187K / 4 = 46,750
Weekly average -9%
Notable Events in May
Xbox One
Gamestop Deal - 1TB Models $299 May 7th - June 10th (21 days in May NPD, 3 weeks)
Every Retailer - 1TB Models $299 May 21st - June 17th (7 days in May NPD, 1 week)
Injustice 2 [2 weeks]
PS4
Injustice 2 [2 weeks]
Code:
2018
Switch April: 170K / 4 = 42,500
Switch May: 165K / 4 = 41,250
Weekly average -3%
Xbox One April: 130K / 4 = 32,500
Xbox One May: 145K / 4 = 36,250
Weekly average +12%
PS4 April: 325K / 4 = 81,250
PS4 May: 225K / 4 = 56,250
Weekly average -31%
Notable Events in May
Switch
Hyrule Warriors Definitive Edition [3 weeks]
Xbox One
Xbox One S Price Cut $50 May 13th - May 19th [1 week] 500GB $229 / 1TB $249
500GB $199 @ GameStop for a few days
$50 gift card with every Xbox One X May 20th - May 26th [1 week]
State of Decay 2 with every Xbox One X [Best Buy/GameStop/Walmart] May 27th - June 2nd [1 week]
State of Decay 2 [2 weeks]
PS4
Detroit: Become Human [2 weeks]
Code:
2019 April Weekly Average
Switch: ~225K / 4 = ~56,250
PS4: ~150K / 4 = ~37,500
Xbox One: ~105K / 4 = ~26,250
Notable Events in May
Xbox One
Xbox One S All-Digital Edition Sea of Thieves + Minecraft + Forza Horizon 3 1TB Bundle $249 [Amazon/Best Buy/Walmart] [4 weeks]
Gamestop Deal - Trade in XB1, Switch, or PS4 and get up to $300 towards select Xbox One X Bundles (No F76) Offer valid 5/5 - 5/18
Rage 2 [3 weeks]
PS4
Rage 2 [3 weeks]
Notes:
We have fully entered the slowest period of the year. There will be a bump in June but don't expect massive sales until September.
Xbox
Xbox One has rarely seen a good May thanks to the lack of (good) deals and continued slowed momentum off April. May 2018 had a $50 off deal for the One S and a $50 gift card for the One X which boosted the XB1 to its best May of 145K. Not really a lot in the grand scheme of things.
2019 has the launch of the Xbox One S All Digital at $249 and another Xbox One X trade in deal at GameStop. It should be noted that this is following an April that had a two week long $50 price cut, so the effect these two events will have on May sales might not be noticable.
The Xbox One averages a decrease of -17%, with the only increase of +12% (2018) and a maximum decrease of -36% (2016).
Playstation
The PS4 does not drop as much in May compared to the XB1. 2014 and 2016 saw major releases in Watch Dogs and Uncharted 4 which kept sales flat from April (2014) and exceeding it (2016). 2015 and 2017 saw drops in the ~10% range, and May 2018 suffered in following the debut of God of War and the record setting numbers PS4.
May 2019 has nothing going for it and is following an April that had the launches of Mortal Kombat 11 and Days Gone. A drop similar to 2015 and 2017 should be expected.
The PS4 averages a decrease of -7%, with the only increase of +18% (2016) and a maximum decrease of -31% (2018). .
Nintendo
The 3DS averages a decrease of -6%, with a maximum rise of +3% (2016) and a maximum decrease of -16% (2015). 3DS is another console that didn't drop much in May. It saw rises thanks to the launch of Donkey Kong (2013) and a price cut to the 2DS (2016), while the biggest drop (2015) was continued downturn from the N3DS launch in February.
Switch once again has a lackluster release schedule in May, yet actual sales will continue to hold strong thanks to incredibly strong first party evergreens.
Recap
Sales continue to slow down in May from April. Sales can rise if there is a significant enough event like a price drop, massive release/bundle, or both.
The biggest May ever recorded back in the 7th gen was the Wii with 675K back in 2008. Second biggest? Wii again with 338K in 2007.
The biggest May ever recorded in the 8th gen is the PS4 with 225K in 2018. Second biggest? PS4 again with 207K in 2016.
