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May 2020 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, June 9th

donny2112

Member
Oct 27, 2017
620
ITT, predict for the NPD May 2020 retail period (May 3-30, 2020) for U.S. hardware sales.

What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined by the National Retail Federation (find calendar links here).
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but SalesEra followers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.
Why are there still predictions when official NPD numbers are not released?
Trust me said:
To have fun? To share thoughts and speculation with a like mined group of people? To be able to communicate directly with individuals who study this industry for a living?
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ethomaz said:
Since 2010 I guess we don't get official numbers anymore... that doesn't mean we don't get the numbers.

The ranking and results are based in real numbers.
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Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, June 9th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: May 3-30, 2020 (4 weeks, April was 4 weeks)
NPD Results Release: Thursday, June 11 @ 4 p.m. EDT (PR+thread posted Friday morning)

Format:

[NSW]
[PS4]
[XB1]

Good/Bad Formatting
Code: 
Good              Bad
[XB1] 100K      [XB1] 100 thousand
[XB1] 100,000   [XB1] 100.000
[XB1] 100000    [XB1] - 100000


Potential hardware impacting events in April:
U.S. declares National Emergency for COVID-19 (most states implemented 'stay-at-home' orders over the month) - March 13 (28 days in period)
Some states partially reopen starting in May - varying days in period

Prediction Format: (repeating to emphasize to use this format)

[NSW]
[PS4]
[XB1]

April's results
oracion said:
www.mediaplaynews.com

NPD: April Video Game Disc Sales Up 8% - Media Play News

Sales of packaged-media video games for consoles and hand-held devices reportedly topped $251 million in the four-week April retail period, ended May 2, an increase of 8% from $232.4 million … Continue reading "NPD: April Video Game Disc Sales Up 8%"
www.mediaplaynews.com www.mediaplaynews.com
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April 2019 NPD thread
May 2019 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive
 
OP
OP

donny2112

Member
Oct 27, 2017
620
That should be closing June 9th, on Tuesday! Who should I contact about changing the thread title to correct it?
 
julian

julian

Member
Oct 27, 2017
16,786
[NSW] 381K
[XB1] 192K
[PS4] 167K

I have no fucking idea. Way too distracted this week, but know I'll forget if I don't enter something.
 
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Welfare

Welfare

Prophet of Truth - You’re my Numberwall
Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,915
Hello! This wall of numbers will be comparing the weekly average of April and May. Both month are 4 weeks long. I have gathered high selling software and any hardware deals for May to help show how the month might be impacted. You can go to previous prediction threads for the previous month's potential impacts.

Code: 
2013

Xbox 360 April: 130K / 4 = 32,500
Xbox 360 May: 114K / 4 = 28,500

Weekly average -12%

PS3 April: 102K / 4 = 25,500
PS3 May: 85K / 4 = 21,250

Weekly average -17%

Code: 
2014

Xbox One April: 115K / 4 = 28,750
Xbox One May: 77K / 4 = 19,250

Weekly average -33%

PS4 April: 199K / 4 = 49,750
PS4 May: 197K / 4 = 49,250

Weekly average -1%

Xbox 360 April: 71K / 4 = 17,750
Xbox 360 May: 57K / 4 = 14,250

Weekly average -20%

PS3 April: 35K / 4 = 8,750
PS3 May: 36K / 4 = 9,000

Weekly average +3%

Notable Releases in May

Xbox One
$399 500GB Standalone SKU Announced For June 9th, May 13th (19 days affect May NPD, 3 weeks)

Watch Dogs [1 week] [363K]
Wolfenstein: The New Order [2 weeks]

PS4
Watch Dogs [1 week] [583K]
Wolfenstein: The New Order [2 weeks]

Xbox 360
Watch Dogs [1 week] [172K]
Wolfenstein: The New Order [2 weeks]

PS3
Watch Dogs [1 week] [138K]
Wolfenstein: The New Order [2 weeks]

Code: 
2015

Xbox One April: 187K / 4 = 46,750
Xbox One May: 140K / 4 = 35,000

Weekly average -25%

PS4 April: 175K / 4 = 43,750
PS4 May: 153K / 4 = 38,250

Weekly average -13%

Notable Releases in May

Xbox One
Halo: The Master Chief Collection 500GB White Bundle $349 [1 week]

The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt [275K] [2 weeks]

PS4
Best Buy Deal - Trade in Last Gen console and get $175 towards PS4 [1 week]

Witcher 3: Wild Hunt  [2 weeks] [420K]

Code: 
2016

Xbox One April: 168K / 4 = 42,000
Xbox One May: 107K / 4 = 26,750

Weekly average -36%

PS4 April: 175K / 4 = 43,750
PS4 May: 207K / 4 = 51,750

Weekly average +18%

Notable Releases in May

Xbox One
$50 Gift Cards All Month

Gamestop Deal - Free Game With Any Xbox One Purchased [1 week]

DOOM [3 weeks] [244K]
Overwatch [1 week] [158K]

PS4
Gamestop Deal - Trade in Xbox One or PS4 and get $250 towards PS4 May 9th - 29th (20 days in May NPD, 3 weeks)

Uncharted 4 500GB Limited Bundle $399 [3 weeks] [51K]

Uncharted 4 [3 weeks] [828K]
DOOM [3 weeks] [276K]
Overwatch [1 week] [203K]

Code: 
2017

Xbox One April: 110K / 4 = 27,500
Xbox One May: 109K / 4 = 27,250

Weekly average -1%

PS4 April: 206K / 4 = 51,500
PS4 May: 187K / 4 = 46,750

Weekly average -9%

Notable Events in May

Xbox One
Gamestop Deal - 1TB Models $299 May 7th - June 10th (21 days in May NPD, 3 weeks)
Every Retailer - 1TB Models $299 May 21st - June 17th (7 days in May NPD, 1 week)

Injustice 2 [2 weeks]

PS4
Injustice 2 [2 weeks]

Code: 
2018

Switch April: 170K / 4 = 42,500
Switch May: 165K / 4 = 41,250

Weekly average -3%

Xbox One April: 130K / 4 = 32,500
Xbox One May: 145K / 4 = 36,250

Weekly average +12%

PS4 April: 325K / 4 = 81,250
PS4 May: 225K / 4 = 56,250

Weekly average -31%

Notable Events in May

Switch
Hyrule Warriors Definitive Edition [3 weeks]

Xbox One
Xbox One S Price Cut $50 May 13th - May 19th [1 week] 500GB $229 / 1TB $249
500GB $199 @ GameStop for a few days
$50 gift card with every Xbox One X May 20th - May 26th [1 week]
State of Decay 2 with every Xbox One X [Best Buy/GameStop/Walmart] May 27th - June 2nd [1 week]

State of Decay 2 [2 weeks]

PS4
Detroit: Become Human [2 weeks]

Code: 
2019

Switch April: 227K / 4 = 56,750
Switch May: 216K / 4 = 54,000

Weekly average -5%

Xbox One April: 106K / 4 = 26,500
Xbox One May: 86K / 4 = 21,500

Weekly average -19%

PS4 April: 148K / 4 = 37,000
PS4 May: 137K / 4 = 34,250

Weekly average -7%

Notable Events in May

Xbox One
Xbox One S All-Digital Edition Sea of Thieves + Minecraft + Forza Horizon 3 1TB Bundle $249 [Amazon/Best Buy/Walmart] [4 weeks]

Gamestop Deal - Trade in XB1, Switch, or PS4 and get up to $300 towards select Xbox One X Bundles (No F76) Offer valid 5/5 - 5/18

Rage 2 [3 weeks]

PS4
Rage 2 [3 weeks]

Code: 
2020 April Weekly Average

Switch: 808K / 4 = 202,000
PS4: 411K / 4 = 102,750
Xbox One: 329K / 4 = 82,250

Notable Events in May

COVID-19

States beginning to reopen

Switch
Xenoblade Chronicles: Definitive Edition [1 week]

Xbox One
Xbox One X $299 May 8 - May 24 [3 weeks]

Notes
We have fully entered the slowest period of the year.

But as we have seen with March and April 2020, consoles are selling out due to extraordinary circumstances. May is the third month of this pandemic, so after two months of constant sellouts and inventory depletion, we might start to see lower numbers.

Xbox
Xbox One has rarely seen a good May thanks to the lack of (good) deals and continued slowed momentum off April. May 2018 had a $50 off deal for the One S and a $50 gift card for the One X which boosted the XB1 to its best May of 145K. Not really a lot in the grand scheme of things.

Xbox One X continues to be put on clearance sales, even if Xbox won't announce their done with One X officially yet. Shouldn't impact anything given it was on sale for the same price in March and April.

The Xbox One averages a decrease of -17%, with the only increase of +12% (2018) and a maximum decrease of -36% (2016).

Playstation
The PS4 does not drop as much in May compared to the XB1. 2014 and 2016 saw major releases in Watch Dogs and Uncharted 4 which kept sales flat from April (2014) and exceeding it (2016). 2015, 2017, and 2019 saw drops in the ~10% range, and May 2018 suffered in following the debut of God of War and the record setting numbers PS4.

PS4 in April had an added sales mover in Final Fantasy 7 Remake at the start of the month, so coupled with the general theme of selling out, the total number of units in May could be drastically lower than what was available in April.

The PS4 averages a decrease of -7%, with the only increase of +18% (2016) and a maximum decrease of -31% (2018). .

Nintendo
Swiitch is in record breaking mode right now, setting the highest March in NPD history and then right after the second highest April in NPD history. Shown below is the 7th gen home console records for May, so those will be the bars Swiitch is set for.

Out of all three consoles, Nintendo might be the most impacted by sellouts compared to what it should be selling, as demand is still through the roof.

Recap
Sales continue to slow down in May from April. Sales can rise if there is a significant enough event like a price drop, massive release/bundle, or now pandemics.

The biggest May ever recorded back in the 7th gen was the Wii with 675K back in 2008. Second biggest? Wii again with 338K in 2007.

The biggest May ever recorded in the 8th gen is the PS4 with 225K in 2018. Second biggest? Switch with 216K in 2019.
 
Skittzo

Skittzo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
41,037
[NSW] 515K
[PS4] 210K
[XB1] 290K

I remember hearing about stock issues for Switch (duh) and also PS4 but not for XB1. So I'm gonna assume XB1 may have sold more than PS4 this month due to availability.
 

m051293

Member
Oct 29, 2017
1,658
No real hints this month so far.

Benji mentioned that all three were running into stock issues now after burning nuclear in March/April, but didn't specify to what extent.

---

Taking a step back and looking at the big picture - IMO NSW has globally hit DS levels of demand due to a combination of AC/COVID/SW Critical Mass/Lagged market reaction to NSW-L and should be able to sustain ~9 pace. If they can get in aggressive holiday deals and/or price-cuts by the end of the Fiscal Year I think they can hold this momentum/pace for the next 18 months or so globally (imagine DS 07-09 but like 80-90% of the volume).
 

m051293

Member
Oct 29, 2017
1,658
Anecdotes from Amazon US - these would apply to June 2020 NPD now.

TLOU2 at #6 and has been holding strong in the top 10 as expected. Can it beat Spider-Man's 2.7M for biggest Sony exclusive launch?

Some aggressive price promotions on SW.

Labo Kit 03 and 04 (Vehicle and VR) just hit $19.99. Currently #4 and #8 selling products.

BOTW finally back in stock (been out since late Feb) and is climbing - up to #22 now at 54.99.

GOW and HZD Complete edition greatest hits SKUs are selling for $9.98 and have shot up into the top 40.

Grey NSW-Lite seems to be the only Switch HW SKU in stock and ready for delivery. Cannot get any other version new or before early July or at MSRP.
 

Adventureracing

The Fallen
Nov 7, 2017
8,035
Good luck to those predicting. With stock struggling for all 3 consoles it feels like throwing darts at a board.
 
Peek-a-boo!

Peek-a-boo!

Member
Oct 30, 2017
4,196
Woodbridge
Adventureracing said:
With stock struggling for all 3 consoles it feels like throwing darts at a board.
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To be fair, most months this year has felt like throwing darts at a board!

I mean the Switch is doing spectacularly, whereas the PlayStation 4 keeps ticking along quite nicely and the Xbox One is doing better than expected numbers too, with thanks to the Xbox One X being 'on sale' for $299 for what seems like ages now...

[NSW] 402K
[PS4] 194K
[XB1] 174K

Is this the first 'Days of Play' where Sony hasn't even dropped the price of either console?

I cannot believe the (slim) PlayStation 4 and PS4 Pro still goes for $299 and $399 respectively.
 
IronTed

IronTed

One Winged Slayer
Member
Jun 6, 2019
1,435
This month is a total crapshoot. But at least there should be notable variance to our numbers.

[NSW] 370k
[PS4] 156k
[XB1] 147k
 
Skittzo

Skittzo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
41,037
Looks like the report's up early.



Who knew the 3DS sold so much 2 years before it even launched!
 
Juryvicious

Juryvicious

Member
Oct 28, 2017
6,843
Well, the Nintendo DS sold 633,500 in May is 2009, so between then and 2019, need to find out what the next best selling May is. I'm sure that would be a gigantic range hehe.

Edit: And I see Celine answered that question.
 
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