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Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
I can reassure you : it won't. Octopath will sell better than DS Remastered.
What do you think it'll do? I find it hard to gauge its potential as it is quite a unique proposition in the modern market. It's probably best to use Bravely Default as a comparison I think:
Code:
01./00. [3DS] Bravely Default: Flying Fairy <RPG> (Square Enix) {2012.10.11} (¥6.090) - 141.529 / NEW <85,68%>
I think Octopath, due to the incredible reception from the demo, could do better than that, so maybe 200k FW?
 

ILikeFeet

DF Deet Master
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
61,987
What do you think it'll do? I find it hard to gauge its potential as it is quite a unique proposition in the modern market. It's probably best to use Bravely Default as a comparison I think:
Code:
01./00. [3DS] Bravely Default: Flying Fairy <RPG> (Square Enix) {2012.10.11} (¥6.090) - 141.529 / NEW <85,68%>
I think Octopath, due to the incredible reception from the demo, could do better than that, so maybe 200k FW?
I dont think so, probably on par with Bravely Default and then leg its way to 200K before stopping
 

kickz

Member
Nov 3, 2017
11,395
I'm sort of expecting all 3 to show up in 2H 2018. Along with FE, Yoshi, Pikmin, new IP(s) and maybe Metroid, it could be rather stacked. One of them might sneak into the June slot too.

There's also the casual/peripheral based content that Kimishima and insiders have been teasing, which we may also hear about this week.

I think they would space those out into the first half of the year if they were indeed happening.

I feel like its the opposite, one or two of their fall big hitters have been pulled back into 2019(Metroid?/Pokemon?) for some unforeseen issues, and that has forced their hand to keep the first half of this year sparse
so they have some ammo for the fall/holidays
 

Mark H

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,679
Switch was so successful in 2017 that Nintendo is sure to be doomed in 2018?
Seriously, some of you guys...
 

Fularu

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,609
Nintendo has gone full "simultaneous worldwide" for releases, and I don't see that ending with MP4 imo. Regardless of how popular Metroid is in Japan (it was simultaneous for Samus Returns, don't see why MP4 would be any different).

***
So far, 1st-party for Switch is following the same strategy as 2017, aka: "one "major" release almost every month":

Jan. - Mario + Rabids
Feb. Bayonetta 1 & 2, Dragon Quest Builders (in the west)
March. - Kirby, Hyrule Warriors (ok, it's KT, but still)
April - Mario Tennis, most likely (and Hyrule Warriors in the west, if the release pattern of previous KT collabs are anything to go by).
May - DK Tropical Freeze

After June everything is blank, but going to assume Fire Emblem could be a June title, Yoshi a July or September release, and beyond Summer is most likely something that won't be known until E3 or a Nintendo Direct.

2017 line-up was clearly planned under the assumption that 3rd-party devs would completely miss the boat, as even one game being delayed would have hurt momentum. 2018 is the same so far, from the looks of it, though with a bit more third-party stuff. I'd say that Nintendo keeping Rabbids for January right from the start is a sign they were expecting nothing from third-party during that month.
I can see Animal Crossing for Japan and Matroid for the US.

Nintendo was fine with M+R dropping in january to fill up gaps in their release schedule
 

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,200
What do you think it'll do? I find it hard to gauge its potential as it is quite a unique proposition in the modern market. It's probably best to use Bravely Default as a comparison I think:
Code:
01./00. [3DS] Bravely Default: Flying Fairy <RPG> (Square Enix) {2012.10.11} (¥6.090) - 141.529 / NEW <85,68%>
I think Octopath, due to the incredible reception from the demo, could do better than that, so maybe 200k FW?

Yeah they nailed it with the demo.

However it's been a while now so I'll need to see the marketing push the gamr will have closer to release. A lot of Switch owners didn't have their Switch during the September ND.

If everything leading up to launch is done right, Bravely Default number should be its floor imo + good legs for a JRPG.
 

Gotdatmoney

Member
Oct 28, 2017
14,500
It means the ports aren't weak support if they fulfill the market's demands

Weaker. Not weak. This is a company comparison, not a market comparison so lets not flip subjects.

No one said ports are bad for the market so lets not imply that is the discussion.

The discussion is whether a list of ports by Namco represents stronger support than a list of original titles. This is not really controversial in my opinion but apparently it is.

Wii users wanted ports, not watered down/neutered/original experiences. While a few original games sold well (boon blox, De Blob, NMH and a few others) downports that were faithfull to their ps360 brethrens sold exidingly well (like the CoD ports, even when they were several years late)

We could have a 10k thread about the Wii third partt situation. Its more complex than you're posing it. Its also not even really related to my point.
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
I'm sort of expecting all 3 to show up in 2H 2018. Along with FE, Yoshi, Pikmin, new IP(s) and maybe Metroid, it could be rather stacked. One of them might sneak into the June slot too.

There's also the casual/peripheral based content that Kimishima and insiders have been teasing, which we may also hear about this week.
You're expecting Smash, Pokemon, Animal Crossing, Pikmin, Yoshi, Fire Emblem, at least one new IP and possibly Metroid, all between June and the start of January? That would make this year a lot bigger than 2017, which is basically impossible imo.

Yeah they nailed it with the demo.

However it's been a while now so I'll need to see the marketing push the gamr will have closer to release. A lot of Switch owners didn't have their Switch during the September ND.

If everything leading up to launch is done right, Bravely Default number should be its floor imo + good legs for a JRPG.
Right. However, the demo has remained available since then, and afaik it isn't going to be taken down, so all they would need to do to reach those new owners is mention that a demo is available in the store. We will definitely have to wait and see how well they manage to market this title, but it has good potential at least imo.
 

Sammy Samusu

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
2,746
Beyonce's Womb
We're 16 days into 2018, that's more than enough time to determine the how this year will play out.
We are 16 days into 2018 and we know PS4 is gonna have a busy release schedule from now till the end of the year.

Everyone undersells Kirby, but it's one of Nintendo's big franchises for a reason, it appeals to everyone, and has great difficulty balance
I'll say this once again. Kirby creates zero excitement. It sells well yes but only in the long run. It's a quick lil game that barely moves hardware by itself.

This year will be another repeat of 2017 for Switch--in other words, another run-away success?
Poor opening sentence for my post I admit. I edited it slightly. I expect Switch to be a success this year but less so than in 2017, mostly because of the poor line up.
 

Mark H

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,679
Regarding these ports, analysis given by Hamamura of Famitsu is going to be spot on.
2018 will mostly be of third parties scrambling to bring many ports after getting caught pants down, and late 2018 to 2019 is when we'll start to see actual meat of the full support.
 

Aters

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
7,948
Nintendo said they will release games with new ideas that will attract different audience. Maybe they have another Wii Fit in their hands.

Switch was so successful in 2017 that Nintendo is sure to be doomed in 2018?
Seriously, some of you guys...
It's tiring whenever people talk about their concerns regarding Nintendo's strategy there will always be a post like "so Nintendo's doomed am i rite lol". I think this kind of posts are not in good faith and add nothing to the discussion.
 

Deleted member 2791

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
19,054
What is this weird dimension where the first four-five months on Switch this year is a sparse schedule, but last year it was apparently better ? Do we have the same look on the schedule ?
 

Kelanflyter

Banned
Nov 9, 2017
1,730
France
Nintendo isn't going to have 2018 with a barren second half, so there's definitely more to announce, but it'll be hard to top Zelda, Splatoon, and Mario.
Animal Crossing, Smash Bros or Pokémon clearly could do as much as Zelda, Mario or Splatoon, even better.


Hello EzaEra. It is clear to me switch wont see any big Japanese third party games but until late 2018-2019. Darksouls remastered is probably the biggest Japanese game the switch will see this year.
I made a bet DQXI is going to be eventually canceled, since it will probably clash with DQXII... Seeing Japanese devs did not have any faith in the system, it seems I may win my incredible unlikely bet... :(
Do you really expect DXII to come this year ?
 

fiendcode

Member
Oct 26, 2017
24,926
Arguing Bandai Namco's initial PS4 support was stronger than Switch's on the merits of "original games" makes no sense. They had zero original PS4 games the first 2 years, everything was a PS3 or Vita upport. Let's see if the same holds true for Switch or not.

You're expecting Smash, Pokemon, Animal Crossing, Pikmin, Yoshi, Fire Emblem, at least one new IP and possibly Metroid, all between June and the start of January? That would make this year a lot bigger than 2017, which is basically impossible imo.
I think some may slip to 2019 (Pokémon, Metroid) and Smash will be another warmed up Wii U Deluxe special but yeah, pretty much all of these have been announced, hinted or implied already. Not impossible at all.
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
What is this weird dimension where the first four-five months on Switch this year is a sparse schedule, but last year it was apparently better ? Do we have the same look on the schedule ?
It's more that last year's first 5 months had 2 blockbusters in BOTW and MK8D, which 2018 doesn't have in its first 5 months. 2017 definitely was sparse in terms of the number of releases in the first 6 months, it's just that people forgot that because they remember BOTW and MK8D. Still, the lineup for 2018 isn't bad imo, and with the added selling power the 4 horsemen of Switch it shouldn't have issues staying on a high sales level.
 

Deleted member 2791

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
19,054
I think the crux lf it is that the first 5 months had Zelda, MK8DX and Splatoon 2

The first five months of 2017 (if we're comparing to the first five months of 2018 we must include the time when the Switch wasn't available too) was Zelda, 1-2-Switch, Bomberman, Mario Kart 8 DX and ARMS. Those are the games that sold at least a decent amount of copies in the first part of the year. Do people think that this year's schedule is "sparse" compared to that ? It may not have as big hitters as Mario Kart 8, but it's certainly not weaker in terms of amount of potential good sellers.
 

K Samedi

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,990
We are 16 days into 2018 and we know PS4 is gonna have a busy release schedule from now till the end of the year.


I'll say this once again. Kirby creates zero excitement. It sells well yes but only in the long run. It's a quick lil game that barely moves hardware by itself.


Poor opening sentence for my post I admit. I edited it slightly. I expect Switch to be a success this year but less so than in 2017, mostly because of the poor line up.

How would you know what the lineup is? I mean, we had one mini direct and thats pretty much it. I think the first 3 months are already filled out pretty nicely but we have no clue about potential new announcements and H2 at this point. Not even the announced games are fully revealed. Lets just wait and see how this year will play out as the months go on instead of calling it a poor lineup already.
 

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,200
I need some to explicitely tell me what we are arguing here. Do we argue that the software line up will decrease software sales or decrease hardware sale compared to last year ?
 

Pokémon

Member
Oct 27, 2017
11,681
The first few months of the Switch were abysmal software wise and the system was carried by Zelda and its desirability till Mario Kart launched. This year's first half of the year looks way better than last year's first half for the Switch (Mario + Rabbids (Japan), Bayonetta 1+2, Kirby Star Allies, Mario Tennis Aces, Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze, Hyrule Warriors).
 

Gotdatmoney

Member
Oct 28, 2017
14,500
Arguing Bandai Namco's initial PS4 support was stronger than Switch's on the merits of "original games" makes no sense. They had zero original PS4 games the first 2 years, everything was a PS3 or Vita upport. Let's see if the same holds true for Switch or not.

An original game can be a multiplat. Was Battlefield 4 not an original title because it had a PS3/360 version? Black Flag was a PS3/360 upport. That's not an original title now?
 

Deleted member 32018

User requested account closure
Banned
Nov 8, 2017
7,628
Sony also have got into the habit of announcing games waaaaaay before they release, something they have commented on recently and said they are looking to change. This is why we know more about PS4's 2018.
 

CeroMiedo

Member
Oct 26, 2017
4,337
What do you think it'll do? I find it hard to gauge its potential as it is quite a unique proposition in the modern market. It's probably best to use Bravely Default as a comparison I think:
Code:
01./00. [3DS] Bravely Default: Flying Fairy <RPG> (Square Enix) {2012.10.11} (¥6.090) - 141.529 / NEW <85,68%>
I think Octopath, due to the incredible reception from the demo, could do better than that, so maybe 200k FW?
I thought the BD demo with surveys was well received as well,even though it was a Japan only thing
Metroid Prime is a big seller in the west
I don't think Prime was that big of a seller,the game was well received though
 

fiendcode

Member
Oct 26, 2017
24,926
An original game can be a multiplat. Was Battlefield 4 not an original title because it had a PS3/360 version? Black Flag was a PS3/360 upport. That's not an original title now?
I'm not speaking to other western devs, but these Bandai Namco games were largely PS3/Vita based and then ported up to PS4. They weren't "original" PS4 games in any meaningful way, those didn't come until 2016. Cross-gen multiplats were a big sticking point during PS4's early years in Japan and constantly cited as a sign of weak support or lack of faith in the platform.
 

Menx64

Member
Oct 30, 2017
5,774
DX12 won't be out for an another 4 years

Oh, I am sure you are right. I am just saying SE is probably just starting if anything to develop the game on switch, so it may not make a lot of sense past some time.

what a strange bet to make, SE continued to push out update releases for DQX even though it was time to focus on DQXI

But DQX was an mmo with a monthly sub, it does make sense to keep updating the game.

I can reassure you : it won't. Octopath will sell better than DS Remastered.

You are correct. I meant in terms of name associated with the brand.

Edit : Dragon Quest Builders 2 too.

You are correct as well. The DQ builders demo was really awesome, so I expect big things from this game.

Surely DQXII is still many years away and barely in pre-production at this stage? Why would that be a factor at all? And why would only the Switch version of DQXII be impacted negatively?

This all seems to be incredibly unlikely and barely without basis.

Because I believe DQXI on switch is just in the same early stages. There is absolutely no sign the development has even begun.

Haha, you must be drunk. It's been 5 months. DQ11 will be out when it is ready.

Too early here! But we will see.

Animal Crossing, Smash Bros or Pokémon clearly could do as much as Zelda, Mario or Splatoon, even better.



Do you really expect DXII to come this year ?

Not this year, but SE will need a couple of years to have the switch version ready, at this point the may just hire a third party to finish a quick port, or maybe plan for the next game.


Guys, I know the bet is very silly, but I just don't have a good feeling. DQ is awesome and I hope I am wrong. (I didn't bet any money, just an avatar for a month, nothing serious)
 

Piston

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,170
I need some to explicitely tell me what we are arguing here. Do we argue that the software line up will decrease software sales or decrease hardware sale compared to last year ?

Both will be up significantly, I hope no one thinks otherwise.

Nintendo has a deceptively strong line up for the first 5 months of 2018 here, it just doesn't have the handful of true system sellers people are accustomed to seeing with their consoles and that is distorting their expectations.

A combination of legacy software and their current release schedule will dwarf what the Switch did in the first half of 2017, and then it is hard to speculate much past that due to a lack of info for the latter half of the year.
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
Both will be up significantly, I hope no one thinks otherwise.

Nintendo has a deceptively strong line up for the first 5 months of 2018 here, it just doesn't have the handful of true system sellers people are accustomed to seeing with their consoles and that is distorting their expectations. A combination of legacy software and their current release schedule will dwarf what the Switch did in the first half of 2017, and then it is hard to speculate much past that due to a lack of info for the latter half of the year.
That's really true. Two titles stand out as deceptive to me: Kirby and Donkey Kong. Looking at the sales of older games (i.e. non-WiiU sales), it turns out that Kirby can sell anywhere between 300k and 1.2M (the latter for the DS title Kirby Super Star Ultra) and Donkey Kong sells over 1M on a regular basis, most recently on the Wii (DK:CR). The 3DS remaster of that title also went to 330k sales. In my opinion both titles for Switch have the potential to go up to 500k at the very end of their lifetime, which makes them significant titles for the system, even if they are generally regarded more as filler.
 

Fularu

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,609
Just to be clear, I believe Nintendo's first half of 2018 to be very strong and I'll get every single game (Bayo, Mario Tennis, DK, Kirby)
 

fiendcode

Member
Oct 26, 2017
24,926
March to july is 5 months....
Yes but that's a different period than the 1st 5 months of 2018. It would also mean the 2nd 5 months of Switch was comparably weak with only Odyssey in the same league sales wise.

Nintendo plans around the calendar so it makes more sense to compare by the calendar too.
 

Fularu

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,609
Yes but that's a different period than the 1st 5 months of 2018. It would also mean the 2nd 5 months of Switch was comparably weak with only Odyssey in the same league sales wise.

Nintendo plans around the calendar so it makes more sense to compare by the calendar too.
I replied to a post talking about the first 4-5 months of the Switch. That's from march to july.
 

Piston

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,170
That's really true. Two titles stand out as deceptive to me: Kirby and Donkey Kong. Looking at the sales of older games (i.e. non-WiiU sales), it turns out that Kirby can sell anywhere between 300k and 1.2M (the latter for the DS title Kirby Super Star Ultra) and Donkey Kong sells over 1M on a regular basis, most recently on the Wii (DK:CR). The 3DS remaster of that title also went to 330k sales. In my opinion both titles for Switch have the potential to go up to 500k at the very end of their lifetime, which makes them significant titles for the system, even if they are generally regarded more as filler.

I think there is a stigma where if it isn't a main stream, system selling Nintendo title like Mario, Mario Kart, Zelda, Metroid, Splatoon, Animal Crossing, Pokemon, or Fire Emblem game "high" sales almost don't count.

The Switch is a case where I think the console sells itself and any software put out will benefit from that. It won't need a major tentpole Nintendo release for the next 5 months to sell systems because of the general mass appeal inherent in the device.
 

Fularu

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,609
First 4-5 months of this year yes, but last year wasn't specified. It could be read either way, launch aligned or calendar aligned.
Look when someone says first 4-5 months of the Switch, I'm not going to naturally think it goes from january to may. In my mind, it's the first 5 months from release day. Whoever posted that should have clearly said "first half of 2017"
 

Deleted member 2791

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
19,054
I replied to a post talking about the first 4-5 months of the Switch. That's from march to july.

I meant the first four-five months comparably to this year, so based on the calendar, not launch aligned. It doesn't make sense otherwise. We don't know the summer games of the Switch this year so that comparison launch aligned couldn't be made.
 

fiendcode

Member
Oct 26, 2017
24,926
Look when someone says first 4-5 months of the Switch, I'm not going to naturally think it goes from january to may. In my mind, it's the first 5 months from release day. Whoever posted that should have clearly said "first half of 2017"
When someone says first 4-5 months of Switch in 2018 I tend to think Jan-May. Maybe that's just me though.
 

Raguy

Member
Dec 20, 2017
311
Until end of March, they don't need a large line-up.
They will complete their forecast. ( 14 M switch between April 2017 and end of March 2018 + 2.7 M switch sold on March 2017, that will do 17 M )
It's next fiscal year ( April 2018 to March 2019 ) that is more important beacause Kimishima forecast is 20 M switch.
In first quarter ( April 2018 to end June 2018 ), Nintendo just needs to add a casual game and that would be good for business.
I don't forget E3 hype that can boost hardwares sales on mid-june.
Several people can buy console in anticipation of a game unveiled at E3.
 
Oct 26, 2017
20,440
I think the Switch's lineup for 2018 so far is fine for Japan, but weak for America.

Mario Tennis, Kirby, $60 DKC port, Yoshi, and Fire Emblem are enough to keep selling well in Japan where the Switch is still constantly sold out, but I don't think good enough for America.

Need to release some 5m+ sellers in 2018 along with these games.
 

sfortunato

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,740
Italy
People should calm down a little bit and remember how Switch has been selling since launch on the premise of its novelty and how valuable Nintendo IPs are on a successful console.

2018 will have:
Kirby
Donkey Kong Country
Mario Tennis
Mario + Rabbids
Fire Emblem
Yoshi
Hyrule Warriors
+ likely
Animal Crossing
another Mario game (Maker?)
Super Smash Bros (likely porting)
whatever Pokémon game (not a mainline but some kind of spin-off)
Luigi's Mansion
+
all the evergreen games that will keep selling as typical for a Nintendo platform
+
some smaller/digital games.

...and that's only from Nintendo. Every other platforms would die for such a line-up.

Do you really think Nintendo should worry? There might be slower periods but such a line-up is a monster line-up. Animal Crossing alone will carry 2018 holidays (and beyond) as it did in 2012 on 3DS. New Leaf sold 5,5m+ units---the Switch one could possibly debut at 1,5-2m units and selling huge numbers during November and December. Animal Crossing is also a big system seller.

The franchise in general (SD Gudnam, Versus) or the Breaker franchise specifically?

Famitsu (retail + digital)

Gundam Breaker (PS3+PSV) 330k
Gundam Breaker 2 (PS3+PSV) 276k
Gundam Breaker 3 (PS4+PSV) 243k

One thing to note here that the PSV of Breaker came after the PS3 version and got quite a marketing push from BN and Sony. I remember there was a limited edition PSV2000 and they brought some kind of celebrity to promote the game. It was also released in fall 2013, which if i am not mistaken was the best holiday season for Vita hardware and Sony was really pushing it, which explain the good numbers for the Vita version despite being a late port (around 90k). Breaker 2 did decently, considering it was a sequel (and most sequels on Playstation had/have a sharp decline compared to it's predecessors) and was released on a dead PS3 and Vita, despite PS4 being around. Breaker 3 further declined but still did good. The PS4 version sold 110k compared to the 130k of Breaker 2 on PS3, so there wasn't much decline for the home console front and on Vita version remained almost flat.

So yes, there is definitely a decline for Breaker, especially if you compare the first game on PS3/PSV with 3 on PS4/PSV but it still did better compared to an other mecha series like SRW (from 396k for Z3 Jikogu on PS3/PSV to 270k for SRWV on PS4/PSV). Now it remains to be seen how the new title will do only on PS4 this time.

I was talking of the Breaker franchise.

It would be interesting to see how much sales PS4 is able to absorb from PSV. If it's decently pushed it might reach the same numbers of the previous two entries. It seems they want to advertise it as a new start for the franchise.
 
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Fularu

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,609
I was talking of the Breaker franchise.

It would be interesting to see how much sales PS4 is able to absorb from PSV. If it's decently pushed it might reach the same numbers of the previous two entries. It seems they want to advertise it as a new start for the franchise.
Judging by previous PS4/Vita releases that went PS4 only, not much
 

schuelma

Member
Oct 24, 2017
5,901
The bolded is not really a good indicator of support per se. .

I realize its simplistic, but IMO using actual sales from 3rd party games is the best consistent metric of support and 3rd party ecosystem. As you can see in this thread, you can put out all sorts of subjective qualifiers and complications if you want to make a certain argument. Should we discredit PS4 games that had PSV and PS3 versions? Etc.
 
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