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Media Create Sales: Week 1, 2018 (Jan 01 - Jan 07)

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Mory Dunz

Mory Dunz

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Oct 25, 2017
36,394
Principate said:
ARMS no doubt did it's part you don't exactly sell 1 million copies of a game a few months after launch and not have an impact. If nothing else it maintained mindshare in what would otherwise be a dead period.

Games that likely did nothing is stuff like Fire Emblem warriors which dropped of pretty much everywhere.
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yeah, that was unfair to arms.

Principate said:
Funnily enough Bayonetta 2 is actually performing similar to MHW on at least 2 markets on Amazon. It's ranked 21th for the month in France and US while having good hourly rankings an month away from release. MHW being 7th and 10th respectively 10 days from release.


Talking within the calender year
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Speaking of MHW, I saw that it was showing a bunch of ads during the Primetime NBA special yesterday in the US.
Has it been getting big ads elsewhere in the west?

Oh ok, for calendar year.
hm, I think Kirby can still get to 2m since it's releasing in March. And maybe FE and Mario Tennis...
 

Deleted member 31092

User requested account closure
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Nov 5, 2017
10,783
Switch sells itself because of the hardware and existing line up. It will blow past 2017 3.3 millions because of more stock and because of the H2 titles, but H1 will be great too.

My 2 cents.
 
Mory Dunz

Mory Dunz

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Oct 25, 2017
36,394
Zedark said:
True, and the same is true for elsewhere in the world. In UK, for example, MK8D went up 26% last week while everything else was entering the slow period post Christmas (except GTA V, but well...).

MK8D, BOTW and SMO will continue to carry Switch sales everywhere, while these numbers are further increased by the new, smaller scale releases planned for this half year. And the hardware sells itself as well.
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Of all the switch sw decisions, mk8d might low key be the smartest.
It seems easy to say now, but back in October, no one on gaf cared about it.

Personally I knew it would do pretty well, but not this well. But then again I had the Switch pegged at aroung 50m LTD (not as bad as other people at least lol), so I had MK8D potential adjusted accordingly.
 
Zedark

Zedark

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Oct 25, 2017
14,719
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test_account said:
What are people expecting anyway? Earlier i was thinking 70k-100k a week in the upcoming few months, if supply is there. Could be more too.
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I think 80k-90k. The power of the released software will hold it up quite nicely, while the other software will give it boosts (sometimes for extended times, like with Kirby and Donkey Kong). Don't think the stock is there, though, unfortunately.
 
zroid

zroid

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Oct 25, 2017
5,785
Canada
skullwaker said:
Nintendo seems to be distancing themselves from Miis with the Switch so far, but I feel it would be a mistake to not release another Tomodachi game after its success in Japan and Europe especially. I think it would be a good idea to release it after Animal Crossing (like they did on 3DS).
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Good point, I was also thinking that Switch might not quite have the demographics for Tomodachi to reach its million seller potential just yet.

But Animal Crossing is the system seller which will bring that.
 
Ryng™

Ryng™

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Nov 2, 2017
3,641
Italy
test_account said:
What are people expecting anyway? Earlier i was thinking 70k-100k a week if supply is there. Could be more too.
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I was talking about worldwide, because according to some people Switch in Japan was fine while the doubts were in the rest of world.

Yes i agree Japan will be somewhat this level. Is in the west, US in particular, that people will be shocked.
 
Principate

Principate

Member
Oct 31, 2017
11,186
Mory Dunz said:
yeah, that was unfair to arms.


Speaking of MHW, I saw that it was showing a bunch of ads during the Primetime NBA special yesterday in the US.
Has it been getting big ads elsewhere in the west?

Oh ok, for calendar year.
hm, I think Kirby can still get to 2m since it's releasing in March. And maybe FE and Mario Tennis...
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I haven't seen anything personally in the UK but we should be in the prime time full swing of Capcom's marketing campaign so I'd expect more stuff of that nature.
 

ACL

Member
Nov 18, 2017
1,304
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Yeah, the Switch will keep selling because of those four games, but we'll what level those four games and more minor releases can propel the Switch to in 2018.
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Until what point saleswise do you consider a game a minor release? As we don't even have the whole picture of the 1H 2018 lineup yet it really is premature to be concerned about the outlook of 2018 as a whole. As I see it, while it's missing something of the caliber of MK8, games like Kirby tend to do really well.
 
ItWasMeantToBe19

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
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Kirby, Mario Tennis, DKC, Yoshi, and Fire Emblem feel like they're in the Mario Rabbids, Xenoblade, and Arms tier of "did okay and kept up momentum but didn't really sell consoles for multiple months."

I think the Switch could use 1 or 2 titles as major as the 4 it released in 2017 (SMO, BotW, Splatoon, Mario Kart).
 
test_account

test_account

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Oct 25, 2017
4,645
Zedark said:
I think 80k-90k. The power of the released software will hold it up quite nicely, while the other software will give it boosts (sometimes for extended times, like with Kirby and Donkey Kong). Don't think the stock is there, though, unfortunately.
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Yeah, i think so too.

What do you think the stock will be? Nintendo did had good stock for this holiday. Much of it might have been built up storage, but it seems that they've sorted out the supply lines (much better than before at least).


Ryng Manuel Tolu said:
I was talking about worldwide, because according to some people Switch in Japan was fine while the doubts were in the rest of world.

Yes i agree Japan will be somewhat this level. Is in the west, US in particular, that people will be shocked.
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Ah ok, i understand. I think i'm actually more curious to see western sales for Switch in 2018 than Japan. I dont have anyfirm predictions for it though.
 
K Samedi

K Samedi

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Oct 27, 2017
4,990
I think Kirby is going to surprise many. I feel its going to be a million seller. I never had any interest in the series myself but the thought of chilling out on the couch and playing this with my wife made me pretty excited for it. I think the co op aspect will be a hit with the masses.
 
Zedark

Zedark

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Oct 25, 2017
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test_account said:
Yeah, i think so too.

What do you think the stock will be? Nintendo did had good stock for this holiday. Much of it might have been built up storage, but it seems that they've sorted out the supply lines (much better than before at least).



Ah ok, i understand. I think i'm actually more curious to see western sales for Switch in 2018 than Japan. I dont have anyfirm predictions for it though.
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Hard to say. Last year they had a series of weeks at 40k-50k, before dropping to 25k after MK8D release. They upped production significantly, but the extent of supply after the increase is dependent on which number is more representative of last year's baseline of production. That said, I think they might be able to provide 50k-60k as the baseline, with rises for certain releases up to, and maybe beyond, 100k.
 
Zedark

Zedark

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K Samedi said:
I think Kirby is going to surprise many. I feel its going to be a million seller. I never had any interest in the series myself but the thought of chilling out on the couch and playing this with my wife made me pretty excited for it. I think the co op aspect will be a hit with the masses.
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It's been a million seller on a couple of platforms before, so I wouldn't rule it myself. At least 500k feels very probable, which already makes it an impressive seller.
 

ACL

Member
Nov 18, 2017
1,304
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Kirby, Mario Tennis, DKC, Yoshi, and Fire Emblem feel like they're in the Mario Rabbids, Xenoblade, and Arms tier of "did okay and kept up momentum but didn't really sell consoles for multiple months."

I think the Switch could use 1 or 2 titles as major as the 4 it released in 2017 (SMO, BotW, Splatoon, Mario Kart).
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That's quite a big range for what you consider as minor, considering you listed IPs with sales potential of 200k-1m+. While it's ideal to release million sellers in a constant base, actually expecting something like this and to be disappointed otherwise is very ignorant about market realities.
 
Mbolibombo

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Oct 29, 2017
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I honestly have a hard time grasping why some people think the early 2018 lineup will give the Switch a hard time?

First off We have Kirby, Donkey Kong, Hyrule Warriors, Mario Tennis, Bayonetta 1+2. Great titles, combined with indies and third parties. It already looks pretty good, new releases every other day as well. I'm not worried in the slightest.

"But there's no MK, Zelda, Mario, Splatoon?!"

Guess what? Those titles are still there, they are going nowhere. Nintendo releases are evergreen, people buying Switch in 2018 are not buying it because of the early 2018 lineup, they are buying it because of their entire lineup which certainly includes the big guns from last year.
 
Jawbreaker

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Oct 25, 2017
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Code: 
Days Remaining     FFXV          DQ XI          MH:XX (3DS)      MH:W
20              330 (+1)        520 (+14)       854 (+31)        955 (+27)
19              331 (+1)        527 (+7)        873 (+19)        991 (+36)
18              339 (+8)        530 (+3)        886 (+13)        1027 (+36)
17              345 (+6)        544 (+14)       905 (+19)        1054 (+27)
16              348 (+3)        553 (+9)        921 (+16)        1082 (+28)
15              352 (+4)        560 (+7)        947 (+26)        1100 (+18)
14              354 (+2)        579 (+9)        990 (+43)        1127 (+27)
13              365 (+11)       592 (+13)       1005 (+15)       1156 (+29)
12              371 (+6)        613 (+21)       1017 (+12)       1202 (+46)
11              379 (+8)        621 (+8)        1034 (+17)       1228 (+26)
10              389 (+10)       634 (+13)       1047 (+13)       1266 (+38)
09              400 (+11)       643 (+9)        1059 (+12)
08              409 (+9)        660 (+17)       1082 (+23)
07              416 (+7)        685 (+25)       1104 (+22)
06              420 (+4)        708 (+23)       1145 (+41)
05              431 (+11)       735 (+27)       1172 (+27)
04              436 (+5)        754 (+19)       1215 (+43)
03              454 (+18)       773 (+19)       1225 (+10)
02              464 (+10)       778 (+5)        1261 (+34)
01              470 (+8)        800 (+22)       1305 (+44)
FW Sales(MC)   690.471          950.315          848.467
HW Sales       118.350           93.356           42.279
Multiplier      1.4              1.18              0.65

On track for 1500+ points.
 
Lelouch0612

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,200
Last week for M+R :

17/01 : 34pts (+1pt)
16/01 : 33pts (+0pt)
15/01 : 33pts (+2pts)
14/01 : 31 pts (+3pts)
13/01 : 28pts (+0pt)
 
Grads

Grads

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Oct 25, 2017
754
I was in Bic Camera, Hamamatsu a few days ago. Is this the dirty work of Sammy?



Other than that, I saw a few kids pointing out the Mario +Rabbids download cards to their parents ( no advertisements set up yet of the game), not sure if the difficulty curve would suit well for children aged around 5-7 years old.

I saw at least a copy of Mario, Splatoon, Arms and 1 2 Switch being sold and a couple of people playing tales of berseria demo on PS4.
 
Freddie13

Freddie13

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Nov 2, 2017
640
Sammy Samusu said:
We are 16 days into 2018 and we know PS4 is gonna have a busy release schedule from now till the end of the year.


I'll say this once again. Kirby creates zero excitement. It sells well yes but only in the long run. It's a quick lil game that barely moves hardware by itself.


Poor opening sentence for my post I admit. I edited it slightly. I expect Switch to be a success this year but less so than in 2017, mostly because of the poor line up.
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I guess it depends on what type of new IPs they will bring as none of the remaining mascots can match Mario or Zelda. All bets are off if Pokémon is readied this year, though.
 
Atheerios

Atheerios

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Oct 27, 2017
7,098
Freddie13 said:
I guess it depends on what type of new IPs they will bring as none of the remaining mascots can match Mario or Zelda. All bets are off if Pokémon is readied this year, though.
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It's funny to think about it.

If Pokemon releases this year, all the discussion about the lack of games, the potential sales slowdown, not reaching 20m, will instantly become invalid.
 

Deleted member 10629

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
12,238
Mbolibombo said:
I honestly have a hard time grasping why some people think the early 2018 lineup will give the Switch a hard time?

First off We have Kirby, Donkey Kong, Hyrule Warriors, Mario Tennis, Bayonetta 1+2. Great titles, combined with indies and third parties. It already looks pretty good, new releases every other day as well. I'm not worried in the slightest.

"But there's no MK, Zelda, Mario, Splatoon?!"

Guess what? Those titles are still there, they are going nowhere. Nintendo releases are evergreen, people buying Switch in 2018 are not buying it because of the early 2018 lineup, they are buying it because of their entire lineup which certainly includes the big guns from last year.
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I dont get why people think every game on Switch has to be a million seller, 10/10, GOTY material, otherwise the console would go to shit.
 
LegendofLex

LegendofLex

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Nov 20, 2017
5,466
Mbolibombo said:
I honestly have a hard time grasping why some people think the early 2018 lineup will give the Switch a hard time?
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Historically, when Nintendo platforms go six months without a major new system seller (the last one we can definitively point to was Mario Odyssey in October), momentum starts to stall and never experiences long-term recovery. It's not totally clear that any of these games will replace a major system seller, but I think all of them combined might, and I think Donkey Kong has some real potential to be a modest hit.
 
silpheed-mcd

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Oct 27, 2017
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Something will happen in some days... please be sure to be ready for that Nintendo
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ShinobiBk

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Atheerios said:
It's funny to think about it.

If Pokemon releases this year, all the discussion about the lack of games, the potential sales slowdown, not reaching 20m, will instantly become invalid.
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I honestly think Pokemon can be the biggest game this gen if they play it right.
I feel the initial explosion of Pokemon Go showed the true potential of Pokemon's sales. There are so many people who grew up like me during the initial Pokemon fad that fell out of the series years ago but would be there day 1 for a HD console release.
 
OfficerRaichu15

OfficerRaichu15

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Oct 26, 2017
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Yeah I agree, Pokémon will be back to the 20M+ range on Switch in my opinion. You think Mario Odyssey is selling gangbusters, wait until Smash Bros and Pokémon come out.
 
Ex-Psych

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Can't wait to see how well MHW does. 1 million seems like a lock no matter what. Could also have the potential to be the second 2 million seller in home console in Japan

Also dumb question is the switch still sold out in Japan?
 
rzmunch

rzmunch

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Oct 25, 2017
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Ex-Psych said:
Can't wait to see how well MHW does. 1 million seems like a lock no matter what. Could also have the potential to be the second 2 million seller in home console in Japan

Also dumb question is the switch still sold out in Japan?
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I don't know if it will reach 2 million, let's hope it's a success.

And yeah the Switch is still supply constrained, though supply got better, latelly even the software is supply constrained.
 
Sammy Samusu

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Imagine Game Freaks being able to make a good Pokemon game on a completely different platform in record time.

Pokemon is not coming in 2018. Unless it's a low effort game, which I wouldn't put past them.

Animal Crossing is a possibility but Nintendo needs a hardcore game to pair it with. We don't need a City folk situation in our hands.

And once again. I'm not worried about the holiday season. I'm worried about the other 10 months of the year. I see some ARMS substitutes in Kirby and Yoshi but I'm waiting for the Splatoon, Kart, Odyssey and Zelda equivalents. (Smash, Maker, Metroid would be a start)
 
Mory Dunz

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Oct 25, 2017
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^^ Pokemon will definitely be low effort. X/Y and Sun/Moon like a generation apart.

Atheerios said:
It's funny to think about it.

If Pokemon releases this year, all the discussion about the lack of games, the potential sales slowdown, not reaching 20m, will instantly become invalid.
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That's going to happen regardless of Pokemon releases.

When 2019 comes around, we'll get a deluge of posts talking about how great 2018 was.
 
Ex-Psych

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Notaskwid

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Sphinx said:
eh I am not sure they received the same backlash we are seeing after the mini-direct,

I certainly don't remember people getting all worked up over an empty (or full of ports/remakes/cross-gens) first half of the year (and that is, assuming Nintendo won't announce anything else for Q1 and Q2 2018)

I think Nintendo gamers are so fed up of droughts that they are pressing the OMG-NO-GAMES! panic button waaaay too soon.
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GAF was full of people not understanding why the PS4 was selling because it had no games.
 
Aters

Aters

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I think Nintendo have Mario or Smash for holiday. If they can push out Anime Crossing in the first half of the year they're in a good position.
 
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