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Media Create Sales: Week 1, 2019 (Dec 31 - Jan 06)

Oct 29, 2017
2,160
IIRC according to Nintendo break even sales levels for Breath of the Wild were around 2m.
Breath of the Wild’s retail price is well above ALBW’s, especially in Japan and Europe; where it is significantly more expensive than any other Switch title (the US got the game for cheaper than any other region by quite a margin).

That no doubt helped with that breakeven point.

It also took around 5-6 years to make. There’s not enough time for another new 3D Zelda game (be it in the style of BOTW or the more traditional style) to be released during the Switch’s life time (hell it basically skipped the Wii U entirely!)

So there is certainly a cause for having a smaller scale title in the vein of ALBW on Switch.
 
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Chris1964

Chris1964

SalesEra Genius
Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,585
Switch costs twice as much, but don't forget the software being 1,5x more expensive. Although AC and Pokemon are such juggernauts, I don't think the price would matter that much.
Software isn't 50% more expensive in Japan, I don't know where this is coming from. 20% is the increase for most first party titles that come from 3DS.
 
Oct 25, 2017
5,966
That’s a very good point ! So we should expect a pricecut this year in order to boost sales.

I won’t be surprised we get a handheld sku at some point. It will be cheaper and Japan loves those handhelds.
By the end of the month, Switch will be the modern console that has gone the longest without a price cut.
3DS took 4 months.
Wii U took 10 months.
Xbox One took a year and 2 months.
Vita took a year and 8 months.
PS4 took a year and 11 months.

It is odd since there’s not even an official bundle out yet, not sure Nintendo would drop the price outside of a holiday either
 
Oct 25, 2017
1,737
Oh, the Wii's upcoming launch aligned holiday performance wasn't very strong then?
2008:
Week 47: 35,298
Week 48: 49,848
Week 49: 56,700
Week 50: 91,641
Week 51: 131,000
Week 52: 134,958
Week 1 (2009): 119,965

Wii had weird life in Japan (peaking already in 2007). it had great holiday sales in 2009 (better than 2008) though thanks to NSMB Wii.
 
Dec 7, 2017
4,375
Spain
By the end of the month, Switch will be the modern console that has gone the longest without a price cut.
3DS took 4 months.
Wii U took 10 months.
Xbox One took a year and 2 months.
Vita took a year and 8 months.
PS4 took a year and 11 months.

It is odd since there’s not even an official bundle out yet, not sure Nintendo would drop the price outside of a holiday either
That’s pretty remarkable. I still remember many people doubting the price, thinking it was way too high. Nintendo was just spot on.
 
Oct 25, 2017
815
2008:
Week 47: 35,298
Week 48: 49,848
Week 49: 56,700
Week 50: 91,641
Week 51: 131,000
Week 52: 134,958
Week 1 (2009): 119,965

Wii had weird life in Japan (peaking already in 2007).
Adding a few more 2009 weeks to this (always Media Create)

Week 2, 2009 - 41,243
Week 3, 2009 - 32,333
Week 4, 2009 - 26,770
Week 5, 2009 - 23,278
Week 6, 2009 - 20,412
Week 7, 2009 - 21,016
Week 8, 2009 - 16,973

Note: Week 8, 2009 saw the Xbox 360 as the best selling home system with 25,334 units sold due to Star Ocean 4's release.

EDIT: Also, Week 47, 2008 was when Animal Crossing: City Folk came out on Wii.
 
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Chris1964

Chris1964

SalesEra Genius
Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,585
Week 2 drop will give a very good idea how things will turn this quarter for hardware.

Week 2 2018
PS4 - 43.808
NSW - 37.500
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,137
Oh, the Wii's upcoming launch aligned holiday performance wasn't very strong then?
Look at hiska-kun post earlier in the thread. Switch is 200k+ ahead of Wii and will substantially increase that lead in the next 5-6 weeks alone.
Week 2 drop will give a very good idea how things will turn this quarter for hardware.

Week 2 2018
PS4 - 43.808
NSW - 37.500
50k+ should be assured for NSW.
 
Dec 21, 2017
4,314
By the end of the month, Switch will be the modern console that has gone the longest without a price cut.
3DS took 4 months.
Wii U took 10 months.
Xbox One took a year and 2 months.
Vita took a year and 8 months.
PS4 took a year and 11 months.

It is odd since there’s not even an official bundle out yet, not sure Nintendo would drop the price outside of a holiday either
To me that's why Nintendo doesn't need a cheaper alternative to the Switch: they can always cut the price of this version at any point, while releasing a newer more powerful mode who will keep the $299.
 
Oct 27, 2017
83
2009 49 {2009.11.30 - 2009.12.06} 01. [WII] New Super Mario Bros. Wii <ACT> (Nintendo) {2009.12.03} (¥5.524) - 934.739 / 934.739 <86,34%>
2009 50 {2009.12.07 - 2009.12.13} 01. [WII] New Super Mario Bros. Wii <ACT> (Nintendo) {2009.12.03} (¥5.524) - 431.198 / 1.365.937
2009 51 {2009.12.14 - 2009.12.20} 02. [WII] New Super Mario Bros. Wii <ACT> (Nintendo) {2009.12.03} (¥5.524) - 567.890 / 1.933.827
2009 52 {2009.12.21 - 2009.12.27} 01. [WII] New Super Mario Bros. Wii <ACT> (Nintendo) {2009.12.03} (¥5.524) - 506.453 / 2.440.280
2009 53 {2009.12.28 - 2010.01.03} 01. [WII] New Super Mario Bros. Wii <ACT> (Nintendo) {2009.12.03} (¥5.524) - 268.212 / 2.708.492

2018 49 {2018.12.03 - 2018.12.09} 01. [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate # <FTG> (Nintendo) {2018.12.07} (¥7.200) - 1.220.535 / 1.220.535
2018 50 {2018.12.10 - 2018.12.16} 01. [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate # <FTG> (Nintendo) {2018.12.07} (¥7.200) - 406.617 / 1.627.152
2018 51 {2018.12.17 - 2018.12.23} 01. [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate # <FTG> (Nintendo) {2018.12.07} (¥7.200) - 452.617 / 2.079.769
2018 52 {2018.12.24 - 2018.12.30} 01. [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate # <FTG> (Nintendo) {2018.12.07} (¥7.200) - 275.417 / 2.355.186
2019 01 {2018.12.31 - 2019.01.06} 01. [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate # <FTG> (Nintendo) {2018.12.07} (¥7.200) - 258.974 / 2.614.160
While Smash Ultimate doesn't have the same legs as NSMB Wii, what it has accomplished so far is really really impressive.
 
Oct 28, 2017
792
To me that's why Nintendo doesn't need a cheaper alternative to the Switch: they can always cut the price of this version at any point, while releasing a newer more powerful mode who will keep the $299.
Yeah, but it's cheaper for them to release a new budget model; the same with the PS4 slim, Xbox One S, 2DS, Wii rvl 101 or 201; than keeping the same model and lowering the price.
 
Oct 25, 2017
6,137
Yes it is, but Smash has always been a juggernaut worldwide (now it has become a juggernaut on roids)

My impression was that that it wasn’t quite in the juggernaut league in Japan.
Your intuition would be a little bit wrong then. Smash is stronger in Japan than in Europe. It performed as well as Mario Kart on 3DS for example.
 
May 7, 2018
287
What caused such a stratospheric increase for Smash in Japan?
The piranha plant, there is no other logical answer, as long as they keep putting minor enemies in and keeping waluigi out the numbers will only increase with each new game.

Serious note, I am amazed that Smash is already closing in Splatoon2.
 
Nov 2, 2017
826
And how much did it sell comparing to previous 2d entries?


Yellow represents the Handhelds Zeldas. Figures are updated as of 31/September. The Zelda TP is incorrect and needs to be split, but this should give an idea of the 2D Zeldas. Source is Celine's great thread

Overall ALBW did quite well in comparison to the other 2D Handheld Zeldas and is even ahead SS and MM.
 
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Oct 26, 2017
1,972
To me that's why Nintendo doesn't need a cheaper alternative to the Switch: they can always cut the price of this version at any point, while releasing a newer more powerful mode who will keep the $299.
A Switch Pro makes much more sense that a handheld only Switch revision like Patcher propose.
 
Oct 27, 2017
1,016
Jordan
I'd guess like 10-12 maybe. Us had over 3 Million in 11 days, should be somwhere around 5+ now, add Japan around 3 Million with digital (maybe slightly less) and you have 8 Million without 30-40% of the world counted.
And those are sell-through numbers, not shipped.
I guess it is going to be noticeably higher than 10m, which is really incredible and unbelievable performance.
 
Oct 25, 2017
985
M-C Switch Top 10 2018:
  1. Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - 2.355.186
  2. Pokemon: Let's Go, Pikachu! / Let's Go, Eevee! - 1.331.287
  3. Splatoon 2 - 1.074.917
  4. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 867.349
  5. Super Mario Party - 841.037
  6. Kirby Star Allies - 702.874
  7. Super Mario Odyssey - 517.447
  8. Minecraft - 506.909
  9. The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 456.243
  10. Mario Tennis Aces - 400.534
M-C Switch Top LTD:
  1. Splatoon 2 - 2.882.819
  2. Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - 2.614.160
  3. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 2.055.899
  4. Super Mario Odyssey - 1.931.675
  5. Pokemon: Let's Go, Pikachu! / Let's Go, Eevee! - 1.399.595
  6. The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 1.246.656
  7. Super Mario Party - 936.140
  8. Kirby Star Allies - 717.643
  9. Minecraft - 549.754
  10. 1-2-Switch - 445.228*
Pretty sure that 1-2 Switch is above 500K by this point in time, at least 25K sales during December and 25K during the rest of the year(was ranked between 20-40 spot on M-C majority of the year when numbers weren't reported). Although I doubt it's above Minecraft.
 

Boiled Goose

Banned
Member
Nov 2, 2017
5,860
I was actually surprised that the PS4 version debuted slightly higher than the Switch version. I figured with the current market no multi platform game would perform better on the PS4 going forward. And especially considering that this game seems to appeal more to Switch owners.
Look at the software competition on Switch. I'm actually surprised how well it's doing.
 
Dec 28, 2017
4,160
What is the expected performance of Dragon Quest XI S?

From what I've seen, Japan hasn't exactly been crazy for late 3rd party ports on Switch. Will it depend on the extra content? Like, if it's meaty enough will that be the tipping point to get people to buy again? Or is the VO enough on it's own?
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,556
Well, it is portable UE4 with voice acting and housemate systems added coming about 2 years late or so. Or that's what we know so far. Wonder if they'll fold some of the western changes in or do anything else new.
 
Oct 24, 2017
2,412
What is the expected performance of Dragon Quest XI S?

From what I've seen, Japan hasn't exactly been crazy for late 3rd party ports on Switch. Will it depend on the extra content? Like, if it's meaty enough will that be the tipping point to get people to buy again? Or is the VO enough on it's own?
At first I was thinking 200K-ish was safe but thinking maybe that was a bit pessimistic. 300k plus?
 
Oct 26, 2017
928
I always enjoy reading these thank you. What target figures are you looking at to start comparing the Switch to 3DS sales again? If you are planning on doing so.
Next Switch comparison will be with PS2.
I will start it in March, until then I will keep Wii. It’s not time for 3DS yet.
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,590
Italy
I have never thought ALBW sold bad or was a disappointment. 4m units is a pretty good mark for handheld Zelda entries. OOT 3D had the advantage of releasing so early and one of the go-game for new adopters.

Go Vacation entered the select club of games that sold better during their second week than the first.

And with a huge bump WoW.
I have a feeling Go Vacation could have done so much better by releasing in early December.
 
Oct 26, 2017
928
Week 2 estimates

New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe - 100-150k (closer to 150k?)
Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - 100-150k (closer to 100k)
Tales of Vesperia: Definitive Edition - 50-100k (closer to 100k)
Super Mario Party - 50-100k (closer to 50k)
In my opinion these estimates are all high end, but we’ll see next week. (Talking about the closer part).
 
Oct 27, 2017
786
Austria
To me that's why Nintendo doesn't need a cheaper alternative to the Switch: they can always cut the price of this version at any point, while releasing a newer more powerful mode who will keep the $299.
It's really a tough call to make, seeing the 3DS/2DS dying sales-wise(along with its games) makes me wonder though, if Nintendo wouldn't want to cash in on the opportunity to offer a smaller, cheaper Switch without the dock and fixed controllers. Let's face it: As a portable the Switch is rather big, a Switch that is a bit larger than the classic GBA with a decently sized 720p screen would be a very interesting deal for people with a 3DS looking for an upgrade and with 1000+ games in the library a Switch Mini would surely be a success -at least in Japan, and by that drive software sales even more.
 
Oct 27, 2017
1,060


Yellow represents the Handhelds Zeldas. Figures are updated as of 31/September. The Zelda TP is incorrect and needs to be split, but this should give an idea of the 2D Zeldas. Source is Celine's great thread

Overall ALBW did quite well in comparison to the other 2D Handheld Zeldas and is even ahead SS and MM.
What Botw is already the best selling Zelda?? is this really correct?
 
Jan 9, 2018
329
It's really a tough call to make, seeing the 3DS/2DS dying sales-wise(along with its games) makes me wonder though, if Nintendo wouldn't want to cash in on the opportunity to offer a smaller, cheaper Switch without the dock and fixed controllers. Let's face it: As a portable the Switch is rather big, a Switch that is a bit larger than the classic GBA with a decently sized 720p screen would be a very interesting deal for people with a 3DS looking for an upgrade and with 1000+ games in the library a Switch Mini would surely be a success -at least in Japan, and by that drive software sales even more.
It's not like a 3DSXL or 2DS are pocketable as-is (I know you were comparing OG GBA but even that isn't super duper portable) but those did alright. Taking the joycons off makes the switch super easy to carry around and a lot smaller so a version with fixed joycons would be less portable than it currently is.

I'm on the boat thinking you keep making this version of the Switch but cut the price 50-100 bucks and get a new Switch out with a better processor for $300. It makes the most logical sense.
 
Jan 10, 2018
413
France
I don't see it reaching 20M if there is indeed a 3D Zelda in 2020 (King Zell hinted at this). If that's not the case, then it might have a chance, but even then, that sounds a little high: it's an evergreen, but one that sells much less than others (especially less than MK8D)