Having multi and being in a portable console, can we expect the DQB2 selling at least 150k on the Switch?
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Media Create Sales: Week 12, 2018 (Mar 19 - Mar 25)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
Oh ok then, I can see it, but the NSW version has to perform very well for that.
... I wouldn't count DQ11 and FF15 honestly. They did the bare minimum and FFXV only got to 1M because that was the first shipment - not an achievement.
So one system then (PS4). Not sure why you're even bringing this up.
FFXV was:
19./00. [XB1] Final Fantasy XV # <RPG> (Square Enix) {2016.11.29} (¥8.800) - 3.791 / NEW
AFAIK, KH3 is still headed for XB1 in Japan.
FFXV released on XBO in Japan. Even the Royal Edition did too, albeit digitally only.
Hmm, I was thinking more llike 850k tbh (lifetime). 150k should be over with after the FW sales. Not doing so would most likely mean a non-negligible decrease in FW sales for the game compared to the first entry, which I don't expect.
I didnt know that. Mayeb i'm thinking of FF7 Remake instead, which is (or was) slated to be PS4 only in Japan. Doesnt really change my point much, but its nice to know regardless, so thanks for the info :) I will edit my earlier post for correction sake.
DQ11 finished around 1.4m? That's more than bare minimum imo. FF15 I agree with you but I think it still shows if they can ship a good amount of KH3 it should do aight. It's just hard to position at this point because the last major KH release was birth by sleep and that was like a decade ago.
Should cross that pretty easily. 200-250k are probably more likely
It's not bad, but I feel like that deciding to do a PS4/3DS release was way more expensive and made them lose the time to get the peak active userbase for a 3DS Dragon Quest, so the sales they had for DQXI didn't pay off. Well, if they get these numbers back in the west I guess it's fine.
And I don't doubt KH3 has potential for 1M anyway.
What are your expectations for DQB2? PS4 did 250k for the first one, and I expect that to go up a tad to 350k, and then Switch will probably do a lot better than Vita did imo. Maybe 700k would be more reasonable for you? That would still put the number at over 1M combined.
Just a complete guess right now, but I would say something like PS4 350-400K, Switch 400-500K.
DQB2 is adding online multiplayer so I'd expect it to outsell the first game long term. I wonder if they'll do local multi for the Switch version too?
Basing the games off mainline DQ is pretty smart too, hits both longtime DQ fans and Minecraft genre that way. Although I sort of wonder if they'll stop at DQB3 then.
Basing the games off mainline DQ is pretty smart too, hits both longtime DQ fans and Minecraft genre that way. Although I sort of wonder if they'll stop at DQB3 then.
Oh 100% the fumbled the shit outta the DQ11 release. It'll do well in the West though and sorta make it up though.
100%. But pegging a range I really have no idea. Until the marketing and preorders really kick in I have 0 idea.
Yeah >800k seems reasonable to me too. I expect the franchise to grow significantly and also be more popular on Switch.
what makes you think I did? hell, I've noticed some of them havent posted here in a while, so they probably got banned or something
They were posting a lot in this thread after the DQXI announcement. Haven't seen them since the Level 5 news. Shrug.
It's on healthier platforms and rectifies the biggest complaint from the first game (no multiplayer).
No way KH3 outsells KH1/2 though. Or FFXV.
Hmm, I think Switch has more potential to sell a DQ game, especially one that plays like Minecraft in some ways, for a number of reasons:
- Switch has Minecraft on it for quite a while already, so the audience that is attracted to that game is on the system;
- Nintendo has a history of DQ games on their systems, so even if DQ mainline isn't on the system yet, the franchise is definitely associated with Nintendo systems;
- Switch is a much healthier platform than the Vita, so its userbase will grow a lot more, and furthermore Switch' software sales are very strong even compared to its install base, meaning that the system in itself very likely has a lot more selling power for a game as big as DQB2 will be;
- the system has been introduced to the DQB series via the port of the first one that released last month, so the spin-off series has been associated with the platform already;
- Switch games tend to have longer legs than PS4 games (even for DQB, the game is likely to sell more than 2x its FW sales on Switch since it's already at 1.5x after 4 weeks).
Basically, the combination of selling power of the platform combined with the fact that Nintendo systems have typically been associated with the franchise is what makes me think Switch is going to do a lot more than what you expect. Of course, PS4 has the association just as much, but I believe that all things being equal, the Switch can sell a lot more, especially for a game that probably will have longer legs than the first entry due to it having multiplayer and maybe also a DLC plan in the future.
That's true, but even then the Switch will creep quite a bit closer by the time this game launches (maybe it will have had the summer boost from the Splatoon DLC already). As I mentioned, my thoughts for FW are a 40/60 division in favour of Switch, although 45/55 division is plausible, too. Then, the Switch will have decently stronger legs to finish at a 30/70 split at the very end. Then, PS4 sales would be about 350k and Switch sales 850k in my estimation.
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DQB2 doesn't have a release date yet. When it launches will be a big determinant in platform splits as well. If it's early 2019 the Switch will be ahead of the PS4 in hardware and the splits will more heavily favor it. If it's before December than it will lean more in the center imo. But the game will have online multiplayer and that automatically makes me think it will do better than the first game even though it is losing a sku.
I'm sorry for being pessimistic beforehand. (If you were reffering me)
:warmyuru:
They said originally they were aiming for summer 2018 iirc. Seems pretty soon though, I think we'll get it later this year.
Yeah, we haven't gotten a definitive release date yet, so they probably have the room to move it forward, maybe into the fall. In that case, Switch should have had a big boost in hardware sales from both Splatoon 2 DLC and Smash (which I fully expect to launch in September alongside the online service), and therefore the FW sales should skew further towards Switch, in my estimation around or slightly past that 40/60 split in favour of Switch.
Yeah later this year could work. I don't see summer happening but who know, tomorrow they could hit us up with a blowout of info. Right now it just seems like it's far out.
Labo is starting to gain serious traction on Amazon, especially the Multi-pack.
There are two Multi-pack SKUs (#11 and #24) and the Robot (#90) in the Top100.
It is interesting because a couple of days ago they were deep in the second half of the Top100.
There are two Multi-pack SKUs (#11 and #24) and the Robot (#90) in the Top100.
It is interesting because a couple of days ago they were deep in the second half of the Top100.
Yup, also on COMG the Variety SKU increased by a point two days in a row after having been stationary for weeks. The signs of a build-up towards launch are there, so it will be the thing to watch in the next couple of weeks.
Does anyone in Japan know if marketing for Labo has ramped up in the last week?
Xenoblade Chronicles 2 finally fell out of the Media Create top 50 after eight weeks in the top 20 and 16 weeks in the top 50. Maybe it will make some more appearances, but even if it doesn't, I'm sure it will continue to sell outside the top 50 for a while longer.
I'm looking forward to seeing updated numbers from Nintendo at the end of the month. I'm still so happy that this game did as well as it did.
I'm looking forward to seeing updated numbers from Nintendo at the end of the month. I'm still so happy that this game did as well as it did.
But again, their biggest franchise, arguably the most significant, isn't coming. "It wouldn't be a good fit", they said. So in a way, it's perfectly symptomatic of the 3rd party situation as a whole: a lot of stuff, but not the big stuff.
Their biggest franchise is Blazblue,but I think you are referring to FighterZ
Guilty Gear? cause that seems to be on hiatus at the moment. BlazBlue is coming. what other big IP they have (that's not someone else's IP)?
I was referring to Guilty Gear, I thought that was bigger than Blazeblue.
That declaration never made sense anyway, why wouldn't Guilty Gear make a good fit when they are happy to bring Cross Tag Battle? But they did say it.
I underestimated just how much support ASW was giving, were they big on 3DS?
Also weren't you banned or did i just imagine that?
Maybe because Xrd was old and BBCTB isn't. It was probably more timing than anything, GG isn't new to Nintendo systems (GBA, DS, Wii).
Also ASW's biggest game now is Cube Creator by a wide margin.
ASW was big on 3DS too but more casual in terms of output.
Yes I got a one day ban. But it was worth it.
FF7R hasn't being announced for anything besides the PS4, although in the announcement trailer they did put a ''play it first on ps4'' implying it's not a exclusive.
I got bored this morning and got some publisher statistics from the Famitsu data for Switch:
Ever so slightly I continue to feel the road to 2 million might be a possibility
Guess we'll see how well it sold January through March later this month which might give us a better idea.
I don't imagine it's very leggy, but we'll see
I remember that in Japan at least it held a very decent weekly sales level in January. It dropped down after that, though. I don't think it'll sell 2M, but 1.5M should be easily achieved I think.
single player JRPGs are pretty frontloaded everywhere these days. FF15 was able to extend its legs thanks to a multiplayer mode
I wouldnt count overshipping as legs. if anything, continuous shipments are legs. as for FF15, I was more talking globally. but given how multiplayer was a downloadable add-on that came later, I guess it didnt push the game up that much
It's not impossible, it's hard, probably the hardest goal of a Nintendo game these days, but you know what? The Xenoblade series is becoming popular game after game. And not only because the waifus on it, or even being a moderately ambitious JRPG game in a Nintendo platform, but I feel that if the series continue to evolve it's core, bringing something new to the table and putting some QoL features on itm I feel that the series will turn itself into a big one in the JRPG scenario.
Anyway, it's hard to evaluate the XB series in a world where Splatoon is big since the day 1, and even the old Xeno games being a lot more ambitious on their screenplay, but there are times which you find a unexpected gem in sea of bullshit (i'm looking at you, FF XIII), and I really wish that the Monolithsoft continues to giving their best on the series.
Something, something small developers taking bigger chances than larger ones. :thinking: