Media Create Sales: Week 12, 2019 (Mar 18 - Mar 24)

[JJConrad]

You're a naughty boy, that's a lot of lies for one post ;)
The graph was made in November and posted on this topic if I recall; but obviously, I needed a few weeks to see if this was really the new baseline (spoiler: it is). NSO had a free 1 week trial and is correctly pointed on the graph (and was never changed, I did not touch this part of the graph). I don't see how this graph is "selective" as those are the raw numbers since release, with different landmarks pointed out. And finally, it is absolutely normal that the introduction of a service which effectively reduced the number of potential buyers down to 1/4 would affect the baseline sales of an almost 100% online game (now, I wouldn't be surprised if you started arguing that some people buy splatoon to play offline). You can see that Mario Kart, while also experimenting a natural decline, is much more flat as compared to 2018; and it's normal, almost no one buys Mario Kart to only play online.
One could even argue that despite NSO clearly affecting the sales of Splatoon almost overnight, the game still sells pretty well.

Now, feel free to argue against the numbers and see you in a few weeks ;)

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So this chart isn't yours?

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And that arrow isn't pointing to Week 40, 2018?.... The week Super Mario Party released.

And this chart also wasn't yours?

.

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You do remember this one, right? It was only a few weeks ago. You used this to claim there was no seasonal pattern to the drop. You never explained the weeks you decided to use for you linear fit, even though different weeks change the results significantly. And you still label NSO as if that's when it launched, when you actually mean that's when you arbitrarily think it started effecting sales.

 

[Limabean01]

well I meant in general, it's doing fine but gladly smash overtook it fast

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do you know what a sales curve is? Titles are supposed to slow down lol. Smash overtaking it means nothing, that game is a monster.

NSMBUDX has exceeded expectations, is outdoing it's original release, and will continue steadily selling for a long time.

 

[hiska-kun]

Very low key releases this week. Yoshi is the only "big" title.

First Day Sell-through {2019.03.28}

[PS4] [NSW] Winning Post 9 <SLG> (Koei Tecmo) (¥8.800) - 40-50%

[PS4] Call of Cthulhu <RPG> (Oizumi Amuzio) (¥7.400) - 60%

[PS4] [NSW] RemiLore: Lost Girl in the Lands of Lore <ACT> (Pikii) (¥4.000) - 30%

Legoland

[NSW] [PS4] The LEGO Movie 2 Videogame <ADV> (Warner Entertainment Japan) (¥3.980)

 

[Deleted member 26156]

There will be another week of Media Create data before they say goodbye. 4Gamer retired one week earlier.

Click to shrink...

Yoshi convinces superior tracker to keep public a week longer.

 

[Platy]

Hey sales era ... saw that a game sold 381,000 in it's lifetime in japan. How big is this for a DS game?

edit : I aparently got my info all wrong

891,076 is THE number

 

[skullwaker]

It's the big Nintendo title for spring right? I know they have a stacked summer and beyond, but it's basically Yoshi and Labo VR for spring if I'm not mistaken.

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It depends on what you qualify as spring I guess. Mario Maker 2 could fall in that timeframe as well since it could release early-mid June.

 

[Lite_Agent]

Nintendo eShop Sales: March 21st to March 27th 2019

Nintendo eShop – Nintendo Switch

01./01. – Puyo Puyo eSports (SEGA) [25.10.2018] (currently on sale)
02./02. – Chocobo's Mystery Dungeon: EVERY BUDDY!! (Square-Enix) [20.3.2019]
03./03. – Futari de! Nyanko Dai Sensou! (Ponos) [20.12.2018]
04./New. – Final Fantasy VII (Square-Enix) [26.3.2019]
05./04. – Minecraft (Mojang / Microsoft Japan) [21.6.2018]
06./New. – Blaster Master Zero 2 (Inti Creates) [21.3.2019]
07./00. – Game Dev Story (Kairosoft) [11.10.2018] (was on sale)
08./08. – Human: Fall Flat (Teyon Japan) [28.12.2017]
09./00. – Nine Parchments (Frozenbyte) [07.12.2017] (currently on sale)
10./New – Cuphead (StudioMDHR) [18.4.2019]
11./10. – Super Smash Bros. Ultimate (Nintendo) [07.12.2018]
12./05. – Super Robot Taisen T Premium Anime Song & Sound Edition (Bandai-Namco) [20.3.2019]
13./New. – Junk Planet (Happinet) [21.3.2019]
14./12. – Undertale (8-4) [15.9.2018]
15./11. – Stardew Valley (Chucklefish) [12.1.2018]
16./19. – New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe (Nintendo) [11.01.2019]
17./07. – Super Robot Taisen T (Bandai-Namco) [20.3.2019]
18./14. – Final Fantasy IX (Square-Enix) [14.2.2019]
19./00. – Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (Nintendo) [28.4.2017]
20./20. – Splatoon 2 (Nintendo) [21.7.2017]

Nintendo eShop – Nintendo 3DS

01./01. – The Battle Cats POP (Ponos) [31.5.2015]
02./00. – Minecraft: New Nintendo 3DS (Microsoft Japan) [14.9.2017]
03./02. – Pokémon Crystal Version (Nintendo, Virtual Console) [26.1.2018]
04./03. – Dragon Quest III (Square-Enix) [24.8.2017]
05./04. – Ice Station Z (Wobbly Tooth) [05.4.2017]
06./07. – Battleminerz (Wobbly Tooth) [17.1.2018]
07./06. – Dragon Quest II (Square-Enix) [10.8.2017]
08./00. – Mom Hid My Game! (hap) [12.7.2017]
09./05. – Symphony of Eternity (Kemco) [06.9.2017] (was on sale)
10./10. – Animal Crossing: New Leaf – Welcome amiibo (Nintendo) [23.11.2016]

https://topics.nintendo.co.jp/c/article/f6db3e59-4c62-11e9-b104-0a6d14145cb1.html

 

[Chris1964]

01./00. [PS4] Sekiro: Shadows Die Twice <ADV> (From Software) {2019.03.22} (¥7.600) - 157.548 / NEW <82,63%>
___

21./16. [PS4] Kingdom Hearts III # <RPG> (Square Enix) {2019.01.25} (¥8.800)
22./19. [NSW] Kirby Star Allies <ACT> (Nintendo) {2018.03.16} (¥5.980)
23./20. [NSW] Super Mario Odyssey # <ACT> (Nintendo) {2017.10.27} (¥5.980)
24./29. [NSW] Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum 'n' Fun! <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games) {2018.07.19} (¥6.100)
25./33. [NSW] Dragon Quest Builders 2 <ADV> (Square Enix) {2018.12.20} (¥7.800)
26./21. [3DS] Kirby's Extra Epic Yarn <ACT> (Nintendo) {2019.03.07} (¥4.980)
27./34. [NSW] Fitness Boxing <HOB> (Imagineer) {2018.12.20} (¥5.800)
28./00. [PS4] Battlefield V <ACT> (Electronic Arts) {2018.11.20} (¥7.800)
29./26. [PS4] Resident Evil 2 # <ADV> (Capcom) {2019.01.25} (¥7.800)
30./27. [PS4] NieR: Automata - Game of the YoRHa Edition <NieR: Automata \ NieR: Automata - 3C3C1D119440927> <RPG> (Square Enix) {2019.02.21} (¥4.800)
31./30. [3DS] Pokemon Ultra Sun / Ultra Moon <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2017.11.17} (¥4.980)
32./00. [PS4] Marvel's Spider-Man [Value Selection] <ADV> (Sony Interactive Entertainment) {2019.03.20} (¥3.900)
33./28. [PS4] Anthem # <RPG> (Electronic Arts) {2019.02.22} (¥7.800)
34./08. [PS4] LoveR <ADV> (Kadokawa Games) {2019.03.14} (¥7.980)
35./37. [NSW] Mario Tennis Aces <SPT> (Nintendo) {2018.06.22} (¥5.980)
36./23. [PS4] Jump Force <FTG> (Bandai Namco Games) {2019.02.14} (¥8.200)
37./00. [NSW] Steins;Gate: Divergencies Assort <Steins;Gate: Hiyoku Renri no Darling \ Steins;Gate 0 \ Steins;Gate: Linear Bounded Phenogram> <ADV> (5pb.) {2019.03.20} (¥9.250)
38./35. [PS4] Grand Theft Auto V [2][New Price Edition] <ACT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) {2018.12.20} (¥3.500)
39./15. [PS4] Samurai Warriors 4 DX # <ACT> (Koei Tecmo) {2019.03.14} (¥5.800)
40./40. [NSW] Zoids Wild: King of Blast <ACT> (Takara Tomy) {2019.02.28} (¥5.980)
41./43. [3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf - Welcome amiibo # <ETC> (Nintendo) {2016.11.23} (¥2.700)
42./00. [NSW] FIFA 19 # <SPT> (Electronic Arts) {2018.09.28} (¥5.800)
43./50. [NSW] Fortnite # <ACT> (Warner Entertainment Japan) {2018.12.13} (¥3.000)
44./17. [NSW] Samurai Warriors 4 DX # <ACT> (Koei Tecmo) {2019.03.14} (¥5.800)
45./44. [NSW] Doraemon: Nobita no Getsumen Tansaki <ADV> (FuRyu) {2019.02.28} (¥5.980)
46./00. [PS4] PlayStation VR Worlds |PlayStation VR| # <ETC> (Sony Interactive Entertainment) {2016.10.13} (¥4.900)
47./45. [PS4] Dragon Quest Builders 2 <ADV> (Square Enix) {2018.12.20} (¥7.800)
48./48. [NSW] Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker <ADV> (Nintendo) {2018.07.13} (¥3.980)
49./00. [PS4] Minecraft: PlayStation 4 Edition <ADV> (Sony Computer Entertainment) {2015.12.03} (¥2.400)
50./00. [PS4] Monster Hunter: World [Best Price] # <ACT> (Capcom) {2018.08.02} (¥4.990)

Top 50

NSW - 25
PS4 - 22
3DS - 3

SOFTWARE

+-------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+
|System |  This Week |  Last Week |  Last Year |     YTD    |  Last YTD  |
+-------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+
|  ALL  |    689.000 |    434.000 |    582.000 |  7.264.000 |  7.820.000 |
+-------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+

 

[Lelouch0612]

Nintendo eShop Sales: March 21st to March 27th 2019

Nintendo eShop – Nintendo Switch

01./01. – Puyo Puyo eSports (SEGA) [25.10.2018] (currently on sale)
02./02. – Chocobo's Mystery Dungeon: EVERY BUDDY!! (Square-Enix) [20.3.2019]
03./03. – Futari de! Nyanko Dai Sensou! (Ponos) [20.12.2018]
04./New. – Final Fantasy VII (Square-Enix) [26.3.2019]
05./04. – Minecraft (Mojang / Microsoft Japan) [21.6.2018]
06./New. – Blaster Master Zero 2 (Inti Creates) [21.3.2019]
07./00. – Game Dev Story (Kairosoft) [11.10.2018] (was on sale)
08./08. – Human: Fall Flat (Teyon Japan) [28.12.2017]
09./00. – Nine Parchments (Frozenbyte) [07.12.2017] (currently on sale)
10./New – Cuphead (StudioMDHR) [18.4.2019]

Full Top 20 coming soon!

Nintendo eShop – Nintendo 3DS

01./01. – The Battle Cats POP (Ponos) [31.5.2015]
02./00. – Minecraft: New Nintendo 3DS (Microsoft Japan) [14.9.2017]
03./02. – Pokémon Crystal Version (Nintendo, Virtual Console) [26.1.2018]
04./03. – Dragon Quest III (Square-Enix) [24.8.2017]
05./04. – Ice Station Z (Wobbly Tooth) [05.4.2017]
06./07. – Battleminerz (Wobbly Tooth) [17.1.2018]
07./06. – Dragon Quest II (Square-Enix) [10.8.2017]
08./00. – Mom Hid My Game! (hap) [12.7.2017]
09./05. – Symphony of Eternity (Kemco) [06.9.2017] (was on sale)
10./10. – Animal Crossing: New Leaf – Welcome amiibo (Nintendo) [23.11.2016]

https://topics.nintendo.co.jp/c/article/f6db3e59-4c62-11e9-b104-0a6d14145cb1.html

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Wow at Cuphead already in the top 10 !

 

[Andri]

Hopefully Switch can see some bump on next week's charts to end the 2018-19 Fiscal Year in great shape.

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So you gave up on your sub 50k dream ?

 

[Lite_Agent]

Nintendo eShop Sales: March 21st to March 27th 2019

Nintendo eShop – Nintendo Switch

01./01. – Puyo Puyo eSports (SEGA) [25.10.2018] (currently on sale)
02./02. – Chocobo's Mystery Dungeon: EVERY BUDDY!! (Square-Enix) [20.3.2019]
03./03. – Futari de! Nyanko Dai Sensou! (Ponos) [20.12.2018]
04./New. – Final Fantasy VII (Square-Enix) [26.3.2019]
05./04. – Minecraft (Mojang / Microsoft Japan) [21.6.2018]
06./New. – Blaster Master Zero 2 (Inti Creates) [21.3.2019]
07./00. – Game Dev Story (Kairosoft) [11.10.2018] (was on sale)
08./08. – Human: Fall Flat (Teyon Japan) [28.12.2017]
09./00. – Nine Parchments (Frozenbyte) [07.12.2017] (currently on sale)
10./New – Cuphead (StudioMDHR) [18.4.2019]
11./10. – Super Smash Bros. Ultimate (Nintendo) [07.12.2018]
12./05. – Super Robot Taisen T Premium Anime Song & Sound Edition (Bandai-Namco) [20.3.2019]
13./New. – Junk Planet (Happinet) [21.3.2019]
14./12. – Undertale (8-4) [15.9.2018]
15./11. – Stardew Valley (Chucklefish) [12.1.2018]
16./19. – New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe (Nintendo) [11.01.2019]
17./07. – Super Robot Taisen T (Bandai-Namco) [20.3.2019]
18./14. – Final Fantasy IX (Square-Enix) [14.2.2019]
19./00. – Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (Nintendo) [28.4.2017]
20./20. – Splatoon 2 (Nintendo) [21.7.2017]

https://topics.nintendo.co.jp/c/article/f6db3e59-4c62-11e9-b104-0a6d14145cb1.html

 

[Deleted member 2793]

Hey sales era ... saw that a game sold 381,000 in it's lifetime in japan. How big is this for a DS game?

edit : I aparently got my info all wrong

891,076 is THE number

Click to shrink...

Style Savvy has great numbers overall. If we don't get a Switch entry, Nintendo has officially become boring.

 

[Alblowi]

So you gave up on your sub 50k dream ?

Click to shrink...

Wait and see Switch drop below 50K next week.

 

[KtSlime]

Wait and see Switch drop below 50K next week.

Click to shrink...

Considering it is spring break, that is unlikely.

 

[plusaflag]

Nintendo eShop Sales: March 21st to March 27th 2019

Nintendo eShop – Nintendo Switch

01./01. – Puyo Puyo eSports (SEGA) [25.10.2018] (currently on sale)
02./02. – Chocobo's Mystery Dungeon: EVERY BUDDY!! (Square-Enix) [20.3.2019]
03./03. – Futari de! Nyanko Dai Sensou! (Ponos) [20.12.2018]
04./New. – Final Fantasy VII (Square-Enix) [26.3.2019]
05./04. – Minecraft (Mojang / Microsoft Japan) [21.6.2018]
06./New. – Blaster Master Zero 2 (Inti Creates) [21.3.2019]
07./00. – Game Dev Story (Kairosoft) [11.10.2018] (was on sale)
08./08. – Human: Fall Flat (Teyon Japan) [28.12.2017]
09./00. – Nine Parchments (Frozenbyte) [07.12.2017] (currently on sale)
10./New – Cuphead (StudioMDHR) [18.4.2019]
11./10. – Super Smash Bros. Ultimate (Nintendo) [07.12.2018]
12./05. – Super Robot Taisen T Premium Anime Song & Sound Edition (Bandai-Namco) [20.3.2019]
13./New. – Junk Planet (Happinet) [21.3.2019]
14./12. – Undertale (8-4) [15.9.2018]
15./11. – Stardew Valley (Chucklefish) [12.1.2018]
16./19. – New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe (Nintendo) [11.01.2019]
17./07. – Super Robot Taisen T (Bandai-Namco) [20.3.2019]
18./14. – Final Fantasy IX (Square-Enix) [14.2.2019]
19./00. – Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (Nintendo) [28.4.2017]
20./20. – Splatoon 2 (Nintendo) [21.7.2017]

https://topics.nintendo.co.jp/c/article/f6db3e59-4c62-11e9-b104-0a6d14145cb1.html

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No Nintendo games in the top 10. Is this a first ?
It's definitely an encouraging sign for third parties - they've topped the first ten places in the charts on the digital shop of the market leader and hopefully, this will be more the norm than an exception going forward.

 

[Alblowi]

Considering it is spring break, that is unlikely.

Click to shrink...

I was joking, since it's the first week he didn't predict it to be below 50k.

 

[Lelouch0612]

Style Savvy has great numbers overall. If we don't get a Switch entry, Nintendo has officially become boring.

Click to shrink...

They need Animal Crossing and the cheaper revision first. The conditions will be met soon so I wouldn't be surprised to see the game in 2020.

 

[Lite_Agent]

Level-5 kicking off TVCM for Yo-kai Watch 4.

 

[sfortunato]

35./37. [NSW] Mario Tennis Aces <SPT> (Nintendo) {2018.06.22} (¥5.980)

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I'm pretty surprised by the performance of this game. Recent Mario games didn't have such a long-lasting lifecycle.

Curious to see next Mario sport venture.

27./34. [NSW] Fitness Boxing <HOB> (Imagineer) {2018.12.20} (¥5.800)

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Leg day wasn't skipped ;)

 

[Chris1964]

No Nintendo games in the top 10. Is this a first ?
It's definitely an encouraging sign for third parties - they've topped the first ten places in the charts on the digital shop of the market leader and hopefully, this will be more the norm than an exception going forward.

Click to shrink...

If you don't release competitive software you can't expect it to chart high, things are very simple and clear.

 

[Lelouch0612]

If you don't release competitive software you can't expect it to chart high, things are very simple and clear.

Click to shrink...

Is the picture getting clearer for Yoshi Chris ?

I know these games are hard to guess because there are far from being preorder heavy.

 

[Chris1964]

Yoshi will move between 50 and 100k at first week, maybe closer to 100k.

 

[Guaraná]

So you gave up on your sub 50k dream ?

Click to shrink...

Nah, next week it's almost sure it will be sub 50k. Everybody who thinks about getting Yoshi already have a Switch.

:D

 

[Guaraná]

Yoshi will move between 50 and 100k at first week, maybe closer to 100k.

Click to shrink...

Closer to 100k is a great result. I'm betting on something between 60-70k

 

[Lite_Agent]

Dengeki

Week 12

• Hardware: 93 000 units (+10.2%)
• Software: 660 000 units (+59.1%)

Fiscal Year, with 1 week left:

• Hardware: 5 870 000 units (-17.3%) / 176.2 billion Yen (-11.4%)
• Total: 26 520 000 units (-16.9%) / 174.6 billion Yen (-7.6%)
• Total: 350.9 billion Yen (-96%), down from 387.9 billion yen during previous Fiscal Year

Yup, FY will end up down YoY. Week 13 isn't going to change that.

http://dengekionline.com/elem/000/001/901/1901285/

 

[Eolz]

For those interested in Sega FES, day 1 youtube link:

 

[srtrestre]

Yoshi will move between 50 and 100k at first week, maybe closer to 100k.

Click to shrink...

And yet the IRS will not see a single cent of those profits.

Spoiler

But Japan's National Tax Agency will one hopes.

 

[schuelma]

Sakura Wars- PS4 this winter

 

[MysticGon]

 

[Charamiwa]

It seems like anytime a game shows up with a minimum of ambition they go PS4 only.

Looks really good. I wasn't expecting some good production value! Lovely artsyle and lightning.

 

[ILikeFeet]

with PS4 only, I wonder what the limit for the game is. probably 250K? that would be pretty good for a PS4 only game

 

[KtSlime]

with PS4 only, I wonder what the limit for the game is. probably 250K? that would be pretty good for a PS4 only game

Click to shrink...

Probably closer to 150k if lucky.

 

[Sandfox]

with PS4 only, I wonder what the limit for the game is. probably 250K? that would be pretty good for a PS4 only game

Click to shrink...

This is the first new game in the series since 2005 and that one sold less than 150k, so that probably won't be happening.

 

[Avada Kedavra]

There hasn't been a new Sakura Wars game in 15 years and the last entry is the lowest selling one of the franchise (150k). Selling 100k lifetime would be great.

 

[Deleted member 3700]

Sakura Wars is a system seller to me. Fuck it, I am finally picking up a PS4.

 

[CeroMiedo]

Sakura Wars is a system seller to me. Fuck it, I am finally picking up a PS4.

Click to shrink...

Do it Jim, game looks awesome

 

[Sagadego17]

Sakura Wars is a system seller to me. Fuck it, I am finally picking up a PS4.

Click to shrink...

do it!

 

[Deleted member 3700]

Do it Jim, game looks awesome

Click to shrink...

do it!

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I will. I nearly fucking cried listening to the new main theme. This series mean so much to me. Damnit. Going to dig out my PS2 and replay the original tonight.

Edit: Sorry for all the swearing. I am just too excited.

 

[skullwaker]

I will. I nearly fucking cried listening to the new main theme. This series mean so much to me. Damnit. Going to dig out my PS2 and replay the original tonight.

Edit: Sorry for all the swearing. I am just too excited.

Click to shrink...

Feel free to swear all you want! No need to apologize for positivity and excitement. :P

 

[Deleted member 3700]

Feel free to swear all you want! No need to apologize for positivity and excitement. :P

Click to shrink...

Thanks for the kind words. I love videogames and love all you people!

 

[foxuzamaki]

Thanks for the kind words. I love videogames and love all you people!

Click to shrink...

It's rare to find such a wholesome comment on the internet nowadays

 

[Deleted member 37233]

Sooo, as expected Sega announced a new Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games (game). Can someone provide the numbers of the previous entries? Will it sell like Mario Tennis Aces?

 

[foxuzamaki]

Now that the production values has only increased aswell as gameplay being pretty good now and switch bringing back some of that casual audience missing on WiiU. Its due to overperform I'd say

 

[Mory Dunz]

Sooo, as expected Sega announced a new Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games (game). Can someone provide the numbers of the previous entries? Will it sell like Mario Tennis Aces?

Click to shrink...

I searched Game Data Library but it's missing some unless I missed something.
the Wii u Games and the Sochi game

so here's some of them:

at least 250k imo

WII    Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games    67.054    594.157    Nintendo    22/11/2007
NDS    Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games    90.793    383.558    Nintendo    17/01/2008
3DS    Mario & Sonic at the Rio 2016 Olympic Games    44.024    268.480    Nintendo    18/02/2016
NDS    Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Winter Games    25.663    254.341    Nintendo    19/11/2009
3DS    Mario & Sonic at the London 2012 Olympic Games    46.357    236.480    Nintendo    01/03/2012
WII    Mario & Sonic at the London 2012 Olympic Games    24.330    221.542    Nintendo    08/12/2011
WII    Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Winter Games    24.476    194.916    Nintendo    05/11/2009

 

[Deleted member 37233]

I searched Game Data Library but it's missing some unless I missed something.
the Wii u Games and the Sochi game

so here's some of them:

at least 250k imo

WII    Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games    67.054    594.157    Nintendo    22/11/2007
NDS    Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games    90.793    383.558    Nintendo    17/01/2008
3DS    Mario & Sonic at the Rio 2016 Olympic Games    44.024    268.480    Nintendo    18/02/2016
NDS    Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Winter Games    25.663    254.341    Nintendo    19/11/2009
3DS    Mario & Sonic at the London 2012 Olympic Games    46.357    236.480    Nintendo    01/03/2012
WII    Mario & Sonic at the London 2012 Olympic Games    24.330    221.542    Nintendo    08/12/2011
WII    Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Winter Games    24.476    194.916    Nintendo    05/11/2009

Click to shrink...

Thank you!

Mhh, I think 250k really is the floor. I would assume it helps that the Olympic Games this time are actually in Japan. Also the usual Switch software boost. Seeing the performance of the past games, 400-500k seems feasible?

 

[Deleted member 2793]

I searched Game Data Library but it's missing some unless I missed something.
the Wii u Games and the Sochi game

so here's some of them:

at least 250k imo

WII    Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games    67.054    594.157    Nintendo    22/11/2007
NDS    Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games    90.793    383.558    Nintendo    17/01/2008
3DS    Mario & Sonic at the Rio 2016 Olympic Games    44.024    268.480    Nintendo    18/02/2016
NDS    Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Winter Games    25.663    254.341    Nintendo    19/11/2009
3DS    Mario & Sonic at the London 2012 Olympic Games    46.357    236.480    Nintendo    01/03/2012
WII    Mario & Sonic at the London 2012 Olympic Games    24.330    221.542    Nintendo    08/12/2011
WII    Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Winter Games    24.476    194.916    Nintendo    05/11/2009

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MC White Book 2014:
256. [WIU] Mario & Sonic at the Sochi 2014 Olympic Winter Games <SPT> (Nintendo) {2013.12.05} (¥5.985) - 26.025 / 58.024 (5.807 <9,20%>)

MC White Book 2016:
055./000. [WIU] Mario & Sonic at the Rio 2016 Olympic Games <SPT> (Nintendo) {2016.06.23} (¥5.700) – 121.075 / NEW (18.276 <39,13%>)

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Personally doubt it will get to 300K. Probably 200~250k.

 

[KtSlime]

Thank you!

Mhh, I think 250k really is the floor. I would assume it helps that the Olympic Games this time are actually in Japan. Also the usual Switch software boost. Seeing the performance of the past games, 400-500k seems feasible?

Click to shrink...

It's very possible. The sales were split between console and handheld in the past, and 2020 is the Tokyo Olympics.

 

[mjw]

Last week for these graphs. Enjoy!

Switch YTD Hardware Sales Comparison

Switch vs Wii
Weekly

Accumulated

-------------------------------------------------------------
|    |    Nintendo Wii   |   Nintendo Switch |  Difference  | 
|    |    (2006/12/02)   |    (2017/03/03)   |              | 
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------| 
|Week|  Weekly |   LTD   |  Weekly |   LTD   |   NSW - Wii  | 
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|
| 106|   56.702|7.121.304|   69.766|7.636.802|       515.498|
| 107|   91.641|7.212.945|   56.954|7.693.756|       480.811|
| 108|  131.054|7.343.999|   56.099|7.749.855|       405.856|
| 109|  134.978|7.478.977|         |         |              |
| 110|  119.965|7.598.866|         |         |              |
| 111|   41.243|7.640.109|         |         |              |
| 112|   32.333|7.672.442|         |         |              |
| 113|   26.770|7.699.212|         |         |              |
| 114|   23.278|7.722.490|         |         |              |
| 115|   20.412|7.742.902|         |         |              |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|

PS4 vs PS3

------------------------------------------------------------- 
|    |   PlayStation 3   |   PlayStation 4   |  Difference  | 
|    |    (2006/11/11)   |    (2014/02/22)   |              | 
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------| 
|Week|  Weekly |   LTD   |  Weekly |   LTD   |   PS4 - PS3  | 
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|
| 264|   34.031|7.342.795|   32.362|7.957.823|       615.028|
| 265|   40.668|7.383.463|   32.221|7.990.044|       606.581|
| 266|   44.661|7.428.124|   34.855|8.024.939|       596.815|
| 267|   65.119|7.493.243|         |         |              |
| 268|   75.943|7.569.186|         |         |              |
| 269|   67.199|7.636.385|         |         |              |
| 270|   74.459|7.710.844|         |         |              |
| 271|   30.332|7.741.176|         |         |              |
| 272|   21.155|7.762.331|         |         |              |
| 273|   22.924|7.785.255|         |         |              |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|

Minecraft Switch vs Minecraft Vita Edition

------------------------------------------------------------- 
|    | Minecraft Vita    | Minecraft Switch  |  Difference  | 
|    | [PSV] (2015/03/19)| [NSW] (2018/06/21)|              | 
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------| 
|Week|  Weekly |   LTD   |  Weekly |   LTD   | Switch – Vita| 
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|
| 38 |   11.179|  424.367|    8.350|  632.871|       208.504|
| 39 |   17.643|  442.010|    7.955|  640.825|       198.815|
| 40 |   32.129|  474.139|    9.136|  649.961|       175.822|
| 41 |   62.356|  536.495|         |         |              |
| 42 |   48.222|  584.717|         |         |              |
| 43 |   23.161|  607.878|         |         |              |
| 44 |   13.182|  621.061|         |         |              |
| 45 |   10.431|  631.491|         |         |              |
| 46 |   10.733|  642.224|         |         |              |
| 47 |    8.926|  651.150|         |         |              |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|

Extra
New Super Mario Bros U comparison

Click to shrink...

It doesn't really matter anymore but what was PS2's LTD at this point?

 

[Mory Dunz]

MC White Book 2014:
256. [WIU] Mario & Sonic at the Sochi 2014 Olympic Winter Games <SPT> (Nintendo) {2013.12.05} (¥5.985) - 26.025 / 58.024 (5.807 <9,20%>)

MC White Book 2016:
055./000. [WIU] Mario & Sonic at the Rio 2016 Olympic Games <SPT> (Nintendo) {2016.06.23} (¥5.700) – 121.075 / NEW (18.276 <39,13%>)

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Personally doubt it will get to 300K. Probably 200~250k.

Click to shrink...

thanks.

 

[skullwaker]

I think reaching the sales of the 3DS Mario & Sonic entries is certainly possible, and it could be the floor for the Switch entry honestly. The Olympics will be in Tokyo this time which should give the game a decent boost, and this time sales won't be split between two consoles as they have been in the past (Wii/DS, 3DS/WiiU). It's hard to say exactly what the potential for the game is but 250-400k seems like a good (and generous) range.