Media Create Sales: Week 12, 2020 (Mar 16 - Mar 22)

Odeko

The Fallen
Mar 22, 2018
10,039
Midwestern America
Pokémon games sales aren’t in any meaningful way linked to the perceived quality of the games- they’ve been rock-solid WW for nearly two decades.

Just because AC’s had an unprecedented launch, let’s not get revisionist about Sword and Shield’s performance- those games broke records when they came out.
Oh definitely, I guess I'm just wondering with how large of a Switch boost other franchises seem to be getting if it could have possibly been even more record breaking had the games been good. There's definitely upward pressure due to the platform and (probably) downward pressure due to the reception which makes it tough to know what the actual ceiling could have been.

It would be tough to test that though. Maybe one of these days I'll pull out the old Excel and see statistically what the average increase in sales of Switch games is compared to previous entries to compare, but obviously even that would just be a rough estimate with tons of confounding variables.
 

Dwebble

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
5,459
Oh definitely, I guess I'm just wondering with how large of a Switch boost other franchises seem to be getting if it could have possibly been even more record breaking had the games been good. There's definitely upward pressure due to the platform and (probably) downward pressure due to the reception which makes it tough to know what the actual ceiling could have been.
I'd be careful of making assumptions based on your own opinions- there's absolutely zero evidence that the demographics that give Pokémon games their sales figures didn't find the games to be good.
 

Odeko

The Fallen
Mar 22, 2018
10,039
Midwestern America
I'd be careful of making assumptions based on your own opinions- there's absolutely zero evidence that the demographics that give Pokémon games their sales figures didn't find the games to be good.
Yeah it's hard to know other than anecdotally (all my friends who've never had a bad thing to say about the series throughout the whole 3DS era certainly weren't pleased). But they are the lowest rated mainline games critically according to sites like Metacritic and Opencritic so there is a bit of evidence there at least, even if that's not necessarily one-to-one with how much people as a whole liked it.
 

Dwebble

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
5,459
Yeah it's hard to know other than anecdotally (all my friends who've never had a bad thing to say about the series throughout the whole 3DS era certainly weren't pleased). But they are the lowest rated mainline games critically according to sites like Metacritic and Opencritic so there is a bit of evidence there at least, even if that's not necessarily one-to-one with how much people as a whole liked it.
There's historically absolutely no correlation between Pokémon's review scores and its sale figures.

I suspect that, if you asked the vast, vast bulk of Pokémon's audience about the controversy over Sword and Shield's supposed lack of quality, you'd get absolutely nothing other than puzzled looks.
 

Aleh

Member
Oct 27, 2017
7,621
SWSH didn’t have extremely good WoM after launch for no reason. In the real world, the games were received more than well. And the continued legs show it too.
 

test_account

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,404
New Leaf was supply constrained at retail so that's at least one reason.
Thats true, but even with download sales for New Leaf (i think it was 400k or 600k the first week?), the difference is really big. Its been quite a while since New Leaf though, so people are probably more used to getting a download version now.


The following are some reasons:
  • Switch has had a massive effect on software sales for many franchises
  • The last mainline game was over 8 years ago
  • The streaming community hugely embraced the game
  • The game has been incredibly well-received critically
  • The corona crisis made it such that a game as cozy and escapist as Animal Crossing should get a good boost
  • New Leaf proselytised the boons of Animal Crossing a lot I feel, what with it having been received really well back in the day
  • It's a huge release in a quarter where Japan hasn't seen a ton of huge releases (nothing like KH3 last year, for example)
Even taking those into consideration, it's still a massive overperformance compared to expectations, of course. Crazy numbers, could be 3x or more what New Leaf did first week.
That make sense. Likely a combination of all those things, indeed.


Correct me if I am wrong but isn't every Nintendo 1st party game eligible for the voucher program, including Animal Crossing?

Also you ignore the current situation where people are more inclined to buy games digitally due to the virus and the nature of the game Animal Crossing is. I really don't see why AC should not reach Fire Emblem's 40% digital ratio. It's not a given but also not impossible.
Yeah, it is, but the discount isnt as big. One reason that was discussed why Fire Emblem had such high download sales in comparison to the retail version was because of the big voucher discount. One thing that i'm not sure of however, is the vouchers of unlimited supply in Japan? In the west, i think it was only one per cosumer or something (two games within one voucher).

Nah, i'm not ignoring those things (although to be fair, and granted, i didnt mention those things in my post, but its something that i'm aware of :)). I still think 40% sounds too high. As mentioned, the higher number there is, the harder it becomes to achieve similar percentage number. I agree that its not impossible though. Animal Crossing is a mega seller after all. But it will just be a guess unless Nintendo releases some PR statement on the first week sales. That said, i can see it reaching 3 million within 2-4 weeks anyway, so it doesnt really matter that much how many percentages it was the first week. The game will probably sell ~5+ million anyway too.
 

Celine

Member
Oct 26, 2017
3,348
When you realize that NSW has sold in just one week more than twice what all the other consoles combined have sold in total during the year until that point in time (first 12 weeks of 2020)...

 

Pancakes R Us

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,453
Extremely early thread but I'm glad. Animal Crossing and Switch continue to exceed expectations.

It's going to be a pretty boring rest of the year if things are not announced this week though.
Who knows, announcements could get pushed back if Corona results in game delays. No point announcing a bunch of stuff if it’s gonna be delayed.
 

cvxfreak

Brave Wave Producer
Verified
Oct 25, 2017
538
Tokyo
When you realize that NSW has sold in just one week more than twice what all the other consoles combined have sold in total during the year until that point (first 12 weeks of 2020)...

I think Switch sold more last week (Week 12) than PS4 did between 2019 Week 48 and 2020 Week 11.
 

Celine

Member
Oct 26, 2017
3,348
I don't think anyone outside Nintendo knows the digital sell-through for Nintendo software.
So unless Nintendo is ready to publish a PR about AC launch and he got a copy early on he is unlikely to hold such data.
 

abellwillring

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,268
Austin, TX
I think Animal Crossing with an inevitable Lite special edition will be the biggest driver of hardware yet and that title alone is enough to carry it this year. Probably something close to 2m for the software and 400k+ for the hardware in week 1. I'd expect AC to reach 5M in Japanese sales during 2020 with a worldwide figure of at least 15m.

Pretty darn close back in January with my prediction.
 

aggrocrog

Member
Oct 29, 2017
819

Sub Boss

Member
Nov 14, 2017
13,034
Remember when people argued that big portables franchises could have trouble selling on Switch because they are higher priced ? Good times.

What a ridiculous debut. Straight up going for at least 2.5m week 1 if you factor in digital.
Animal Crossing started as a console game and was a success way back on the GC and N64
 

Principate

Member
Oct 31, 2017
8,218
I'm guessing he has his contacts. Why would he say something like that without knowing the digital number?
It's an exceptionally low number for digital, keep in mind the initial shipment would likely include enough for at least 1 maybe two weeks beyond launch meaning 2.5m for shipments and digital means digital must have been very low.
 

skittzo0413

Member
Oct 25, 2017
23,086
I'm guessing he has his contacts. Why would he say something like that without knowing the digital number?
What contacts would know Nintendo's internal digital sales numbers? Only a handful of people at Nintendo would know that.

It's far more likely he used a conservative estimate for digital% as a lower bounds and said it will be at least that.
 

sfortunato

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,271
Italy
Thats true, but even with download sales for New Leaf (i think it was 400k or 600k the first week?), the difference is really big. Its been quite a while since New Leaf though, so people are probably more used to getting a download version now.
This is true. Also, New Leaf launched just shy of the holiday season so perhaps many people were waiting a few weeks to buy the game.