Media Create Sales: Week 13, 2018 (Mar 26 - Apr 01)

v2_0 · Apr 6, 2018

K Samedi said:
With all Japanese third parties putting a focus on the west, I don't see how that is a mistake. Switch is a more complex product than the 3DS, its priced higher as well and it is normal it follows a sales curve that is more like a successful console. The software sales are great, the hardware sales are also pretty good and will rise for sure in the coming months. I really see no need to take a pessimistic view on it all. Third partiy executives are smart people who see the potential and long term appeal of the Switch. They are not judging things by weekly sales in March and April.

I don't really agree that most Japanese third party devs focus that much on Western markets. That's certainly right for some big projects with higher budgets but I don't think there are that many of them. The Japanese market is still imo one of the most important one from a strategic point of view considering how such a relatively small market can impact so much third party support.

The Switch is also priced higher than the 3DS and yet it was able to sell as much as that handheld before the shortages and there is no reason to believe it would have been that much below it right now if it hasn't been for that problem. At the end third party devs don't care if the platform has a good excuse for not selling as much as previous ones, they only care about the installed base and, you're right, about good software sales. It's not about saying the console is doomed of course but the situation could have been much better without that problem for sure, it's a key aspect to take into consideration when talking about Japanese third party support for the platform and it's one that is no other company's fault than Nintendo's one.

Charamiwa said:
I don't see how selling maybe 200k more or 300k at best last holidays would really change anything regarding 3rd party support.

3DS which Switch was on track with sold 1Mn + more, not 200K/300K more...

CeroMiedo · Apr 6, 2018

Mory Dunz said:
is it coming to mobile or something?

Delay intensifies

Deleted member 2791 · Apr 6, 2018

v2_0 said:
I remember when some people were vehemently calling "nonsense" the idea that this latest holiday shortages were the most harmful factor for future Switch third party support and that Nintendo will be as a result the first one to blame way before any other company for the extensive time it will take for these devs to transition to that platform. And yet here we are and we can see clearly now how much this situation has impacted its potential sales.

yeah no I really don't

fiendcode · Apr 6, 2018

As an aside, while FOX Engine doesn't run on Switch now I would think Konami would want it ported asap for PES/Winning Eleven.

Charamiwa · Apr 6, 2018

v2_0 said:
3DS which Switch was on track with sold 1Mn + more, not 200K/300K more...

The Switch would have never magically sold 1M more last holiday with more supply. It's apparent now that the demand isn't nearly as strong as the 3DS was. If you remember, the week after Christmas wasn't that bad, and there was a lot of Switches on the shelves. It wasn't that supply constrained.

The truth is, for a while we had no idea what the demand was because it was always out of stock, so there was this notion that it maybe was as popular as the 3DS, even post price cut. But what happened during and after the holidays clearly squashed that notion, and now in absence of meaningful and regular new software it's fallen even more behind.

Deleted member 2793 · Apr 6, 2018

Charamiwa said:
The Switch would have never magically sold 1M more last holiday with more supply. It's apparent now that the demand isn't nearly as strong as the 3DS was. If you remember, the week after Christmas wasn't that bad, and there was a lot of Switches on the shelves. It wasn't that supply constrained.

The truth is, for a while we had no idea what the demand was because it was always out of stock, so there was this notion that it maybe was as popular as the 3DS, even post price cut. But what happened during and after the holidays clearly squashed that notion, and now in absence of meaningful and regular new software it's fallen even more behind.

You're talking like they're not selling pretty much what they have. Demand isn't 3DS-level, but you're overblowing this.

Charamiwa · Apr 6, 2018

Heartskips said:
You're talking like they're not selling pretty much what they have. Demand isn't 3DS-level, but you're overblowing this.

But does it really matter if "they're pretty much selling what they have"? That just tells us that the shipments are still low, not that the demand is high. Unless you think with higher shipments we'd see a significantly higher baseline week over week.

RailWays · Apr 6, 2018

Labo Predictions

Railways - VK: 70k, RK: 40k

Kriegshand · Apr 6, 2018

v2_0 said:
I remember when some people were vehemently calling "nonsense" the idea that this latest holiday shortages were the most harmful factor for future Switch third party support and that Nintendo will be as a result the first one to blame way before any other company for the extensive time it will take for these devs to transition to that platform. And yet here we are and we can see clearly now how much this situation has impacted its potential sales. We can see that Switch was on track with 3DS until this problem occured and now Switch is 1.5 Mns below which is of course a totally different situation for the console to get these games as soon as possible. With Switch not being supplied constrained anymore it is also obvious that they have indeed "lost" many impulse sales during that period and many of these people are now not in a hurry anymore to buy it.

You are simply wrong. The companies take worldwide numbers into consideration. And worldwide 3DS and Switch numbers are pretty much the same. The 3DS was just more focused on the japanese market. Take a look at the chart below.

Deleted member 2793 · Apr 6, 2018

Charamiwa said:
But does it really matter if "they're pretty much selling what they have"? That just tells us that the shipments are still low, not that the demand is high. Unless you think with higher shipments we'd see a significantly higher baseline week over week.

I think it could be higher and that it wasn't that a good of idea to have low shipments for the holidays. Of course, it wouldn't be close to the 3DS baseline, but I don't think this weekly 40K is the Switch's ceiling.

Kriegshand said:
You are simply wrong. The companies take worldwide numbers into consideration. And worldwide 3DS and Switch numbers are pretty much the same. The 3DS was just more focused on the japanese market. Take a look at the chart below.

While he's exaggerating, his point was that Nintendo always got japanese tp support because of JP sales and that's true. Doesn't matter that the Switch sells well WW when the competition is over 70M, they need to improve their JP sales.

v2_0 · Apr 6, 2018

Charamiwa said:
The Switch would have never magically sold 1M more last holiday with more supply.

Why not? When you have two sales trends that are so similar with the second one even heavily supply constrained the most logical thing to expect is that both lines will continue to stay close during the holidays at the very least. That's how predictions work and that's what most here were expecting for Switch sales during that period. That's still the likeliest scenario of what would have happened without shortages. The thing is that most customers that wanted to buy that system for the holidays as a seasonal product are not interested to buy it now. Nintendo really lost these sales maybe/probably not forever but it's clear that they are not going to get these potential additional sales back anytime soon.

Kriegshand said:
You are simply wrong. The companys take worldwide numbers into consideration. And worldwide 3DS and Switch numbers are pretty much the same. The 3DS was just more focused on the japanese market. Take a look in the chart below.

How can I be wrong about that as that's not what I'm denying? I'm talking about Japan here and my point as previously explained is that Japanese third party support relies much more on that market than on global sales.

Kriegshand · Apr 6, 2018

Heartskips said:
I think it could be higher and that it wasn't that a good of idea to have low shipments for the holidays. Of course, it wouldn't be close to the 3DS baseline, but I don't think this weekly 40K is the Switch's ceiling.

While he's exaggerating, his point was that Nintendo always got japanese tp support because of JP sales and that's true. Doesn't matter that the Switch sells well WW when the competition is over 70M, they need to improve their JP sales.

The Switch can host systemsellers that are on par in sales with what you can expect on PS4. The Switch has also the same amount of millionsellers like the PS4. So the people who buy the software are there. And thats the only thing that matters. Monster Hunter World would have sold the same on switch or even better when you take the Splatoon sales into account.

Also for the todays release schedule the holiday performance of the switch should have had no impact. The period of time to react is just a too short for the publishers. The decisions to not have Dragon Quest 11 in time on switch or to do a switch version of Monster Hunter World were made long ago.

v2_0 · Apr 6, 2018

Kriegshand said:
Also for the todays release shedule the holiday performance of the switch should have had no impact. The period of time to react is just a too short for the publishers. The decisions to not have Dragon Quest 11 in time on switch or to do a switch version of Monster Hunter World were made long ago.

The decision to have them as soon as possible on the platform or at en even later date will be made much more recently though.

ILikeFeet · Apr 6, 2018

Lite_Agent said:
TV Commercial for Inazuma Eleven Ares (the game). Only mentions Switch and PS4 ;)

That didnt take long.

Deleted member 2793 · Apr 6, 2018

Kriegshand said:
The Switch can host systemsellers that are on par in sales with what you can expect on PS4. The Switch has also the same amount of millionsellers like the PS4. So the people who buy the software are there. And thats the only thing that matters. Monster Hunter World would have sold the same on switch or even better when you take the Splatoon sales into account.

Also for the todays release shedule the holiday performance of the switch should have had no impact. The period of time to react is just a too short for the publishers. The decisions to not have Dragon Quest 11 in time on switch or to do a switch version of Monster Hunter World were made long ago.

I'm not disagreeing with you on the Switch having this potential for million sellers, but this is pretty much expected from Nintendo systems. The thing is that bigger HW numbers -> bigger potential for SW -> bigger third party support. The 3DS had over 20M units sold and even then the third party support dropped in a significant way from the DS era, I don't think they can afford to let the Switch fall a lot more.

And yep, DQXI Switch being very low priority and no MHW were decisions made a long time ago, but improving their japanese numbers is important for future support.

Lite_Agent · Apr 6, 2018

A rather... unique promo video for Portal Knights in Japan:

Gotta love that Portal Knights and Cube Creator X are releasing within one week of each other (April 19th for the former, and April 26th for the latter)... and yet Minecraft is still MIA.

Kriegshand · Apr 6, 2018

v2_0 said:
The decision to have them as soon as possible on the platform will be made much more recently though.

Look! You are a publisher and look at the Q1 performance of the Switch and the PS4. The PS4 got all the software you could dream of. Still the PS4 just performs the same as the Switch which only got some 2D platformers and ports. Even worse the PS4 sales slowed down drastically and will likely decrease further.
Software also performs well on the Switch. While PS4 software is mostly frontloaded the Switch has multiple longtime sellers. So if developers do ignore the Switch it's not because of lack of marketshare or lack of software sales. The Switch will be leader in japan even without third party support.

Kriegshand · Apr 6, 2018

Heartskips said:
The thing is that bigger HW numbers -> bigger potential for SW -> bigger third party support.

Yeah this is true. But you have also to look at the options that are available on the japanese market today. It's the PS4 and the Switch. And the Switch is already on par with the PS4 regarding the number of games in the weekly charts. In one year the japanese charts will be dominated by Switch software. But yeah many publishers will focus on western sales and will release their software on the PS4 despite a dominant Switch and against the realities of the japanese market.

ACL · Apr 6, 2018

What's the point in making comparisons with 3DSs support if you ignore all context? 3DSs whole lifetime was contrasted by stronger than now competition draining 3rdparty resources, with exotic hardware making it very difficult to benefit from multiplatform games.

schuelma · Apr 6, 2018

Looks like VC4 Switch news set for Sega Fes on April 15.

https://gematsu.com/2018/04/valkyria-chronicles-4-for-switch-news-set-for-sega-fes-2018

Rainrir · Apr 6, 2018

This is gonna bomba, but damn it looks charming.

I wish it wouldNt bomba.

KtSlime · Apr 6, 2018

That's great they got パーマ大佐 to do that rap. My favorite of his is still 森のクマさん
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tbmhHiLDlps

schuelma · Apr 6, 2018

Rainrir said:
This is gonna bomba, but damn it looks charming.

I wish it wouldNt bomba.

I don't even think its been confirmed to release in Japan yet, which I find a bit odd.

Deleted member 2793 · Apr 6, 2018

Rainrir said:
This is gonna bomba, but damn it looks charming.

I wish it wouldNt bomba.

I really like this. I also really hate this industry because this will flop.

Lite_Agent · Apr 6, 2018

Nintendo eShop Sales - March 29th to April 4th 2018

Nintendo eShop – Nintendo Switch

01./01. – Minecraft: Nintendo Switch Edition (Mojang) [12.5.2017]
02./02. – Kirby Star Allies (Nintendo) [16.3.2018]
03./00. – ARMS (Nintendo) [16.6.2017] (was on sale)
04./04. – Stardew Valley (Chucklefish) [12.1.2018]
05./New – Tengai for Nintendo Switch (Zerodiv) [29.3.2018]
06./05. – Human: Fall Flat (Teyon Japan) [28.12.2017]
07./07. – FIFA 18 (Electronic Arts) [29.9.2018] (was on sale)
08./03. – Hyrule Warriors: Definitive Edition (Koei-Tecmo) [22.3.2018] (launch discount)
09./08. – Overcooked: Special Edition (Team17) [12.10.2017]
10./New – Arcade Archives Punch-Out!! (Hamster) [30.3.2018]
10./New – Arcade Archives Punch-Out!! (Hamster) [30.3.2018]
11./New – Lode Runner: Legacy (Tozai Games) [29.3.2018]
12./New – The Flame in the Flood (Teyon Japan) [29.3.2018]
13./09. – Splatoon 2 (Nintendo) [21.7.2017]
14./11. – Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (Nintendo) [28.4.2017]
15./13. – Arcade Archives VS. Super Mario Bros. (Hamster) [22.12.2017]
16./00. – 10 Seconds Run Returns (Bluprint) (currently on sale)
17./New. – Shin ・ Denai 「Nani ga Hoshii no?」～Kitami Eri～ (Doras) [29.3.2018]
18./New – ACA NeoGeo Sengoku 3 (Hamster) [29.3.2018]
19./12. – Golf Story (Flyhigh Works) [09.3.2018]
20./10. – Layers of Fear: Legacy (Circle Ent.) [29.3.2018]

https://topics.nintendo.co.jp/c/article/ab94788a-3334-11e8-a129-063b7ac45a6d.html

(Full Top 20).

ILikeFeet · Apr 6, 2018

Rainrir said:
This is gonna bomba, but damn it looks charming.

I wish it wouldNt bomba.

Man, the interiors look terrible

RPG_Fanatic · Apr 6, 2018

Lets try my hand at a prediction.

RPG_Fanatic - VK: 100K, RK: 35k

Rainrir · Apr 6, 2018

ILikeFeet said:
Man, the interiors look terrible

Does it? It Looks to have a color pencil look which I appreciate.

ShinobiBk · Apr 6, 2018

Lite_Agent said:
Nintendo eShop Sales - March 29th to April 4th 2018

Nintendo eShop – Nintendo Switch

01./01. – Minecraft: Nintendo Switch Edition (Mojang) [12.5.2017]
02./02. – Kirby Star Allies (Nintendo) [16.3.2018]
03./00. – ARMS (Nintendo) [16.6.2017] (was on sale)
04./04. – Stardew Valley (Chucklefish) [12.1.2018]
05./New – Tengai for Nintendo Switch (Zerodiv) [29.3.2018]
06./05. – Human: Fall Flat (Teyon Japan) [28.12.2017]
07./07. – FIFA 18 (Electronic Arts) [29.9.2018] (was on sale)
08./03. – Hyrule Warriors: Definitive Edition (Koei-Tecmo) [22.3.2018] (launch discount)
09./08. – Overcooked: Special Edition (Team17) [12.10.2017]
10./New – Arcade Archives Punch-Out!! (Hamster) [30.3.2018]
10./New – Arcade Archives Punch-Out!! (Hamster) [30.3.2018]
11./New – Lode Runner: Legacy (Tozai Games) [29.3.2018]
12./New – The Flame in the Flood (Teyon Japan) [29.3.2018]
13./09. – Splatoon 2 (Nintendo) [21.7.2017]
14./11. – Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (Nintendo) [28.4.2017]
15./13. – Arcade Archives VS. Super Mario Bros. (Hamster) [22.12.2017]
16./00. – 10 Seconds Run Returns (Bluprint) (currently on sale)
17./New. – Shin ・ Denai 「Nani ga Hoshii no?」～Kitami Eri～ (Doras) [29.3.2018]
18./New – ACA NeoGeo Sengoku 3 (Hamster) [29.3.2018]
19./12. – Golf Story (Flyhigh Works) [09.3.2018]
20./10. – Layers of Fear: Legacy (Circle Ent.) [29.3.2018]

https://topics.nintendo.co.jp/c/article/ab94788a-3334-11e8-a129-063b7ac45a6d.html

(Full Top 20).

I don't follow the JP eshop charts but has Stardew and Overcooked had the same performance/legs as in the US? Both games have been charting in the US eshop since release months and months ago

MysticGon · Apr 6, 2018

MysticGon - VK: 30k RK: 18k

Lelouch0612 · Apr 6, 2018

Lelouch0612 - VK : 130k RK: 50k

ILikeFeet · Apr 6, 2018

Rainrir said:
Does it? It Looks to have a color pencil look which I appreciate.

it's ridiculously flat. there's no sense of depth whatsoever. no shadows, no contrast between objects; shit starts to blend together. it looks two dimensional, and not in a good way. and yet the outdoor scenes dont have this problem. the styles are too disparate

ItWasMeantToBe19 · Apr 6, 2018

What are the retailer expectations with Labo?

schuelma · Apr 6, 2018

I suspect for the Variety Kit, it will sell whatever Nintendo ships for the first week.

Andri · Apr 6, 2018

fiendcode said:
As an aside, while FOX Engine doesn't run on Switch now I would think Konami would want it ported asap for PES/Winning Eleven.

Is that not contingent on the assumption that Konami still cares about Videogames ?

Deleted member 2793 · Apr 6, 2018

Andri said:
Is that not contingent on the assumption that Konami still cares about Videogames ?

They still care. PES/WE will be released this year as usual.

casiopao · Apr 6, 2018

Rainrir said:
This is gonna bomba, but damn it looks charming.

I wish it wouldNt bomba.

Well, they should wait a bit longer till Harvest Moon is released first here. With this, it will had an uphill battle of attracting AC or HM fans there.

Andri · Apr 6, 2018

Heartskips said:
They still care. PES/WE will be released this year as usual.

Did they announce platforms for it ?

Irc Super Bomberman R sold a million on switch alone(or is very close), so i would have guessed that they would include a Switch version of their yearly titles, but its Konami so who knows.

Echizen · Apr 6, 2018

schuelma said:
Looks like VC4 Switch news set for Sega Fes on April 15.

https://gematsu.com/2018/04/valkyria-chronicles-4-for-switch-news-set-for-sega-fes-2018

It's interesting that the Switch version still appears to be on track. Given that it's in a very similar position to Dragon Quest XI in terms of file size (26GB on PS4) and release window, that seems to run counter to the theory that Dragon Quest XI's Switch version was delayed due to Switch card issues. It'll be interesting to see exactly how Sega handles the release.

ItWasMeantToBe19 · Apr 6, 2018

Ryoma said:
It's interesting that the Switch version still appears to be on track. Given that it's in a very similar position to Dragon Quest XI in terms of file size (26GB on PS4) and release window, that seems to run counter to the theory that Dragon Quest XI's Switch version was delayed due to Switch card issues. It'll be interesting to see exactly how Sega handles the release.

VC4 runs on a PS3 engine with PS3 assets, lol.

Echizen · Apr 6, 2018

ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
VC4 runs on a PS3 engine with PS3 assets, lol.

Would you care to elaborate? I'm not necessarily doubting what you're saying (I haven't followed the development of the game that closely, so I don't know one way or the other), but I'm not exactly sure what point you're trying to make.

ItWasMeantToBe19 · Apr 6, 2018

Ryoma said:
Would you care to elaborate? I'm not necessarily doubting what you're saying (I haven't followed the development of the game that closely, so I don't know one way or the other), but I'm not exactly sure what point you're trying to make.

I'm saying it's probably pretty easy to port over a game to Switch that was probably built on a 2008 PS3 game's engine (as VC4 looks exactly like VC1).

The game might have more compression and thus increased load times on Switch, but not sure how much we can infer about porting to the Switch when VC4 is not exactly pushing hardware.

(Very excited to buy VC4 on Switch though!)

Sqrt · Apr 6, 2018

fiendcode said:
As an aside, while FOX Engine doesn't run on Switch now I would think Konami would want it ported asap for PES/Winning Eleven.

I dont think they will bother, really.

Also, didnt they said that it was running in mobile too?

Echizen · Apr 6, 2018

ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
I'm saying it's probably pretty easy to port over a game to Switch that was probably built on a 2008 PS3 game's engine (as VC4 looks exactly like VC1).

The game might have more compression and thus increased load times on Switch, but not sure how much we can infer about porting to the Switch when VC4 is not exactly pushing hardware.

(Very excited to buy VC4 on Switch though!)

My post wasn't about the difficulty of the port. There's no doubt in my mind that Dragon Quest XI is the more difficult game to port.

foxuzamaki · Apr 6, 2018

Rainrir said:
This is gonna bomba, but damn it looks charming.

I wish it wouldNt bomba.

Wait the game is in English already?

Boiled Goose · Apr 6, 2018

People expect Winning 11 on Switch?
I'd be surprised

Lite_Agent · Apr 6, 2018

foxuzamaki said:
Wait the game is in English already?

The game has only been announced for EU and NA (initially only NA), so that'd be surprising if the game wasn't already in English. It's a Wada x Aksys Games joint, so makes sense the west would be the focus.

skullwaker · Apr 6, 2018

The moment Nintendo drop the price of the Switch, demand is going to soar like crazy in Japan. That's why comparisons with the 3DS are futile. Switch is significantly more expensive than 3DS was at this point in its life. The fact that the Switch hasn't needed an emergency price cut is good, not bad.

sfortunato · Apr 6, 2018

skullwaker said:
The moment Nintendo drop the price of the Switch, demand is going to soar like crazy in Japan. That's why comparisons with the 3DS are futile. Switch is significantly more expensive than 3DS was at this point in its life. The fact that the Switch hasn't needed an emergency price cut is good, not bad.

This, and also software selling relatively better are good signs for Switch.

Deleted member 1413 · Apr 6, 2018

fiendcode said:
As an aside, while FOX Engine doesn't run on Switch now I would think Konami would want it ported asap for PES/Winning Eleven.

I do wonder if there are some technical limitations caused by losing a lot of development staff.
Feels like they should've gotten it out earlier, maybe for survive.

Probably a business opportunity with EA literally and figuratively not wanting to play ball on Switch.

Media Create Sales: Week 13, 2018 (Mar 26 - Apr 01)

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