Media Create Sales: Week 13, 2018 (Mar 26 - Apr 01)

Oct 25, 2017
3,527
You don't need to double the sales from DQIX to expand the franchise, I don't even picture what are the justifications for it and asking the game to sell something like 10 millions to not be a failure is raising the stake too high.

6 millions would already make it the best sold title in the entire serie and without an over reliance on just one market or one platform. Like Capcom, SE estimations are through the roof and they like to dream, but I can't see how "just" 6 millions WW would make the game a failure, it would actually be great.
To sell 6 million units it has to sell 2.4 million units in the west, that's 2.4 times what DQ9 sold
 

Peace

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Oct 27, 2017
978
France
To sell 6 million units it has to sell 2.4 million units in the west, that's 2.4 times what DQ9 sold
Yes, that would expand the franchise even more in the west while still being the best sold DQ ever made WW. That would already be a fantastic results. Now the question is : is that possible ?
 
Oct 29, 2017
1,641
Yes, that would expand the franchise even more in the west while still being the best sold DQ ever made WW. That would already be a fantastic results. Now the question is : is that possible ?
DQ11 isn't going to sell 2.4m in the west or even close to it.
Especially not with how little SE has put to market it and the game is pretty much still tailored for Japanese audience (as it should be).
At this point it's good enough if it can sell as much as DQ8 and DQ9 did in the west.
 
Mar 20, 2018
1,923
DQ 8/9 sold as much as they did on the two most successful pieces of hardware in the History of gaming, not really sure how people expect PS4/Steam to beat the monsters that were PS2/DS.
 
Oct 25, 2017
1,370
DQXI selling 2.4m in the west is nearly impossible, especially with a late Switch version. That would be more than Persona 5 has shipped worldwide. It would be just under what Nier Automata has shipped worldwide.

I just don't see it happening.
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,527
DQ IX needed all of Nintendo's marketing muscle to even get to 1 million in the west (and the adds were great)

DQ11 won't have any of it (especially with Spiderman releasing next to it)
 
Oct 29, 2017
134
The problem with DQ11 in the west is that it is not really outstanding in any way and therefore it will be a problem for WoM to catch on. Nier, persona and yakuza all had something to be hyped about. Music, story, style , silliness and crazy side content.

DQ11 is just more DQ and that is ok for the most part (to be honest i didn't enjoy 11 that much) but it doesn't provide a striking quality besides being a classic formulare
 
Oct 28, 2017
4,265
You don't need to double the sales from DQIX to expand the franchise, I don't even picture what are the justifications for it and asking the game to sell something like 10 millions to not be a failure is baseless.

6 millions would already make it the best sold title in the entire serie and without an over reliance on just one market or one platform. Like Capcom, SE estimations are through the roof and they like to dream, but I can't see how "just" 6 millions WW would make the game a failure, it would actually be great.
Wut? I am literally saying the same thing. DQ9 is 1 mill in the west. Doing 2 million is what i think it should do to achieve the goal of expanding its IP. I am not even talking about jp sales here.
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,258
Italy
This is true for 80% of all videogames and they still sell. Most of them are sequels and just try to improve some elements. So this is a non-argument. As many mentioned the game will be on much better hardware than ever before. Think of the Monster Hunter World threads. Nobody was happy because of gameplay changes. Most people got excited because the next Monster Hunter mainline game was going from 240p to HD-next generation graphics.
It is an argument in a world where Inazuma already showed a big decline entry-to-entry from 1m to <300k units. I don’t think Inazuma audience cares much about graphics and Ares doesn’t seem pushing the hardware.

Or benefit from a good World Cup presence

Also the new Captain Tsubasa reboot (I know it's more akin to a remake) can only help the game
If people are excited about the World Cup they will buy FIFA or Winning Eleven. The fact that other football arcade games exist and are successful is not necessarily a good thing because they are fighting for the same thing: gamers’ time.
 
Oct 27, 2017
1,400
So I guess the overall strategy for YW franchise is to chase the same people who were into the original game and anime, now grown up to be in their teens?
I wonder how well this would go.
 
Oct 28, 2017
5,101
Weren't people.sure that MHW would have never sold more than 2 millions in the west too?
I would at least give DQXI the benefit of the doubt
I think I understand the skepticism this time a lot more though. Like just speaking where I am in the UK for example almost everything with the words 'Dragon Quest' in the title has bombed so hard for years now. PlayStation, DS, 3DS it has mattered not, no one cares about it here. What one reason is there that will attract an audience with this iteration that prior titles did not have? Because I do not see a single one- just take a look at NNK2's numbers for a bad warning sign as far as I can guesstimate what will happen for DQXI.
 
Oct 25, 2017
5,659
It says "New main character" in the red speech bubble, so it's a new dude this game.
Weird that the art style seems to depart so much.
Hope the in game visuals hold up.
Inazuma looked a bit rough last time I saw it and the turn around seemed a bit too quick with the release being slated for summer
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,465
Weren't people.sure that MHW would have never sold more than 2 millions in the west too?
I would at least give DQXI the benefit of the doubt
The thing is MH:W is positioned as a co-op game with an MMO-ish grindy flavor, which, while not popular last time MH showed up on home consoles in the west, is popular these days. It also is an action game and launched in a "dead" period.

DQ is a turn-based RPG. Now, I'll grant that the current market environment floated P5, another turn-based RPG, up to 1.5 million or so in the west and that there is in this something of a possibility that DQ will meet more favorable market conditions than last time it was on a home console. It doesn't, however, share all the qualities that helped P5 sell: it isn't sexy nor super stylish, nor is it trending up. Instead it has the same sort of aesthetic, for which previous DQ are frequently lambasted and has had squalid results in the west since DQIX almost a decade ago.

The thing is DQ is aimed at a general audience in Japan and the general audience is not what is buying JRPG in the west other than FF or Pokemon. DQ didn't manage to break into that space in the 90s, when it was instead largely absent. So it is going to be judged on appeal to enthusiast audiences and DQ does terribly among, say, us, which is a crying shame, but is what it is.

I think DQXI's best chance of beating the "green fields and kiddy Dragon Ball characters, no story, too much grinding, boring combat, stuck in the past," rap is in a protagonist-oriented story, great graphics, improved production values over the Japanese release, and revamped combat. I don't know which of these qualities it has and to what extent as I haven't played it wrt some and as we haven't seen the fullness of the localization wrt others.

People seemed to suggest it is most comparable to VIII when the GAF import thread was going, which I'd take to mean there is more of a focus on the core characters than a more NPC/world oriented DQ like DQVII had. The graphics are nice but it is going to get kiddy/green fields complaints and already has in threads here. We know they will be adding voice acting but the music is going to stay midi. The combat is changed in the version coming over but we'll have to see if it takes more with people.

Beyond this though, it doesn't have a favorable release date. It also still is a single-player, turn-based JRPG.
 
Oct 25, 2017
12,837
I honestly dont think the aesthetic has much to do with why DQ hasn't caught on. Especially when there are other games like it that do catch on. With DQ, there's a lot of factors, but when you separate them, certain parts stand out as more problematic than others. Aesthetic? Not so much, methinks.
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,258
Italy
So I guess the overall strategy for YW franchise is to chase the same people who were into the original game and anime, now grown up to be in their teens?
I wonder how well this would go.
It seems so. But it doesn’t look like a smart idea. I would have chased a new younger audience while keeping some depth for older grown-up fans.

does yokai change protagonists each game?
The third one introduces a new protagonist along with the old one but you can play with the same protagonist across each entry.

The Switch version has a standard 16% off and is also sold out

PS4 can't sell 3rd party games confirmed
A further proof that third party games/genre typically not associated with Nintendo platforms can sell well on Switch and even better than PS4 counterparts.
 
Oct 25, 2017
5,861
The Netherlands
It says Summer 2018. Not a surprise.
Oh, that's interesting. As I expected, it seems they might be going for the same time slot as all other YW mainline games. This makes it quite possible that it releases in July.

KtSlime Thanks for linking the twitter account! Looks like stock is not freely available everywhere, although the general availability in stores and on amazon suggests that there aren't issues that limit sales by any meaningful factor imo.
 
Oct 25, 2017
2,672
Oh, that's interesting. As I expected, it seems they might be going for the same time slot as all other YW mainline games. This makes it quite possible that it releases in July.

KtSlime Thanks for linking the twitter account! Looks like stock is not freely available everywhere, although the general availability in stores and on amazon suggests that there aren't issues that limit sales by any meaningful factor imo.
Yes, perfect game for summer vacation. If it really releases in July, which is highly probable, Japanese Switch users are going to have an extremely busy July.

Edit

July 13th:
Octopath Traveler
Captain Toad
Splatoon Octo Expansion (rumored)

July 19th
Closed Nightmare (thanks CeroMiedo)

July 26th
Megaman X collection 1 and 2
Disgaea Refine
 
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Oct 26, 2017
2,059
Yes, perfect game for summer vacation. If it really releases in July, which is highly probable, Japanese Switch users are going to have an extremely busy July.

Octopath Traveler
Captain Toad
Splatoon Octo Expansion (rumored)
Megaman X collection 1 and 2
Disgaea Refine
that low budget horror game from nis will also be available at july 19
 
Two NIS games confirmed for PS4 and Switch. They're leaving the Vita behind. It looks like Liar Princess and the Blind Prince will be their final game for the system.

-Closed Nightmare, a live-action horror adventure game, will be released on 19 July.
-Disgaea Refine, a HD remake of Disgaea: Hour of Darkness, will be released on 26 July.

so erm,apparently it seems that they are legitimately going to turn the series into shounen rpg
The edge!
4 means death...
 
Oct 25, 2017
874
With the Yo-Kai watch reveal we can officially say that Switch's year two line-up is potentially much stronger than 3DS's 2012.

In terms of major third party games we have:
- Octopath Traveler
- Yo-Kai Watch 4
- Taiko no Tatsujin
- Inazuma Eleven
- Dragon Quest Builders 2
- Minecraft Physical release
- Mario+Rabbids

I would say there is a tendency across these titles of targeting a younger demographic. All of these games have the potential of selling more than 200K. With Yo-Kai being a game that I think will end up selling more than DQM did back in 2012, DQB having the potential of selling more than 500K and the rest of the titles falling some where between 200-500K.

For reference the top selling 3rd party games on the 3DS in 2012:
Dragon Quest Monsters: Terry's Wonderland 3D(Square Enix) - 919.870
Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate(Capcom) - 602.058
Kingdom Hearts 3D - Dream Drop Distance(Square Enix) - 338.812
Run for Money Tousouchuu: Shijou Saikyou no Hunter-tachi kara Nigekire!(Bandai Namco) - 337.472
Taiko no Tatsujin: Chibi Dragon to Fushigi na Orb(Bandai Namco) - 321.959
Resident Evil: Revelations(Capcom) - 296.040
Bravely Default: Flying Fairy(Square Enix) - 283.693
Harvest Moon: The Land of Origin(Marvelous) - 234.053
Professor Layton V. Ace Attorney(Level 5) - 219.454
Kobito Zukan: Kobito Kansatsu Set(Nippon Columbia) - 205.779
 
Oct 27, 2017
1,873
Above all else, DQXI's western potential is kneecapped by default compared to the reality of MHW's numbers because it's not a multiplayer game.
I think I understand the skepticism this time a lot more though. Like just speaking where I am in the UK for example almost everything with the words 'Dragon Quest' in the title has bombed so hard for years now. PlayStation, DS, 3DS it has mattered not, no one cares about it here. What one reason is there that will attract an audience with this iteration that prior titles did not have? Because I do not see a single one- just take a look at NNK2's numbers for a bad warning sign as far as I can guesstimate what will happen for DQXI.
The thing is MH:W is positioned as a co-op game with an MMO-ish grindy flavor, which, while not popular last time MH showed up on home consoles in the west, is popular these days. It also is an action game and launched in a "dead" period.

DQ is a turn-based RPG. Now, I'll grant that the current market environment floated P5, another turn-based RPG, up to 1.5 million or so in the west and that there is in this something of a possibility that DQ will meet more favorable market conditions than last time it was on a home console. It doesn't, however, share all the qualities that helped P5 sell: it isn't sexy nor super stylish, nor is it trending up. Instead it has the same sort of aesthetic, for which previous DQ are frequently lambasted and has had squalid results in the west since DQIX almost a decade ago.

The thing is DQ is aimed at a general audience in Japan and the general audience is not what is buying JRPG in the west other than FF or Pokemon. DQ didn't manage to break into that space in the 90s, when it was instead largely absent. So it is going to be judged on appeal to enthusiast audiences and DQ does terribly among, say, us, which is a crying shame, but is what it is.

I think DQXI's best chance of beating the "green fields and kiddy Dragon Ball characters, no story, too much grinding, boring combat, stuck in the past," rap is in a protagonist-oriented story, great graphics, improved production values over the Japanese release, and revamped combat. I don't know which of these qualities it has and to what extent as I haven't played it wrt some and as we haven't seen the fullness of the localization wrt others.

People seemed to suggest it is most comparable to VIII when the GAF import thread was going, which I'd take to mean there is more of a focus on the core characters than a more NPC/world oriented DQ like DQVII had. The graphics are nice but it is going to get kiddy/green fields complaints and already has in threads here. We know they will be adding voice acting but the music is going to stay midi. The combat is changed in the version coming over but we'll have to see if it takes more with people.

Beyond this though, it doesn't have a favorable release date. It also still is a single-player, turn-based JRPG.


right, but 2 millions maximum sales for DQXI arent the (how many?) 5 millions MHW is already seeing in the West (keeping selling)
 
Oct 25, 2017
2,672
With the Yo-Kai watch reveal we can officially say that Switch's year two line-up is potentially much stronger than 3DS's 2012.

In terms of major third party games we have:
- Octopath Traveler
- Yo-Kai Watch 4
- Taiko no Tatsujin
- Inazuma Eleven
- Dragon Quest Builders 2
- Minecraft Physical release
- Mario+Rabbids

I would say there is a tendency across these titles of targeting a younger demographic. All of these games have the potential of selling more than 200K. With Yo-Kai being a game that I think will end up selling more than DQM did back in 2012, DQB having the potential of selling more than 500K and the rest of the titles falling some where between 200-500K.

For reference the top selling 3rd party games on the 3DS in 2012:
Dragon Quest Monsters: Terry's Wonderland 3D(Square Enix) - 919.870
Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate(Capcom) - 602.058
Kingdom Hearts 3D - Dream Drop Distance(Square Enix) - 338.812
Run for Money Tousouchuu: Shijou Saikyou no Hunter-tachi kara Nigekire!(Bandai Namco) - 337.472
Taiko no Tatsujin: Chibi Dragon to Fushigi na Orb(Bandai Namco) - 321.959
Resident Evil: Revelations(Capcom) - 296.040
Bravely Default: Flying Fairy(Square Enix) - 283.693
Harvest Moon: The Land of Origin(Marvelous) - 234.053
Professor Layton V. Ace Attorney(Level 5) - 219.454
Kobito Zukan: Kobito Kansatsu Set(Nippon Columbia) - 205.779
Thanks for the data compilation. I think those Switch games you listed will have no problem selling over 300k. IMO, Yokai Watch 4 is definitely selling 1m+, and Octopath Traveler will surprise people with very strong sales.
 
Youkai Watch 4's success will be heavily influenced by the popularity of the ShadowSide anime. YW4 is not a guaranteed decline compared to YW3.

As for Inazuma Eleven, the shift from DS to 3DS coincided with the launch of a new series, just like now. After the series' hiatus, it's hard to say how well the game will do. It will depend a lot on the anime's popularity as well. I don't expect Ares to do as well as the original DS trilogy or even GO Shine/Dark, but we should wait and see how the anime does before we start predicting its sales.
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,905
Isn't 500k for Builders 2 really optimistic?

That's almost double what the best selling SKU for the original release sold. Its not like Switch has the advantage of a larger install base yet.
 
Oct 25, 2017
5,861
The Netherlands
Isn't 500k for Builders 2 really optimistic?

That's almost double what the best selling SKU for the original release sold. Its not like Switch has the advantage of a larger install base yet.
It does have the advantage that it will sell many more units than Vita in the long run, so its legs should be way better. The game goes from 3 SKUs to 2, so sales are more concentrated in the platforms, and furthermore Switch is a much stronger platforms than the three DQB1 released on. As such, I definitely expect Switch take sell way more than Vita, and I think 500k is a low estimate. 700k-850k is what I expect. I will quote some of my other posts regarding this topic when I'm back at my computer.

Edit: Here are some of my posts I think are relevant to the discussion:

General expectations and reasoning:
What kind of sales are we expecting for DQB2? The reception of the first one was very good, so it shouldn't see Watch Dogs 2-like decreases in sales or anything. For reference, here's what the first entry did FW on every platform:

01./00. [PSV] Dragon Quest Builders: Alefgard o Fukkatsu Niseyo # <ADV> (Square Enix) {2016.01.28} (¥5.980) - 178.016 / NEW <82,89%>
02./00. [PS4] Dragon Quest Builders: Alefgard o Fukkatsu Niseyo <ADV> (Square Enix) {2016.01.28} (¥7.800) - 141.369 / NEW <85,36%>
04./00. [PS3] Dragon Quest Builders: Alefgard o Fukkatsu Niseyo <ADV> (Square Enix) {2016.01.28} (¥6.800) - 53.154 / NEW <89,44%>
02./00. [NSW] Dragon Quest Builders <ADV> (Square Enix) {2018.03.01} (¥4.800) - 28.884 / NEW <40-60%>

LTD numbers (courtesy of Game Data Library):
PSV = 327.389
PS4 = 250.460
PS3 = 116.580
Switch = 44.346
Total = 738,775

That number can easily rise since the Switch version only came out 4 weeks ago, so, if nothing else, it should be >750k. DQB2 loses two SKUs, but gains another successful platform with the Switch. Some of the sales of the lost platforms will be put into the PS4 and Switch versions, so I think its current base should be mostly consolidated for DQB2. Then, I think 2 can add a decent amount of new players, especially since it comes only a year after the new mainline entry (the first single player entry since 2009, probably over 9 years). So, I personally think the game should be able to hit 1M units sold, and probably decently past that, too. My preliminary guess based on what I have outlined above would be 1.2M lifetime sales.

Edit: as Gotdatmoney mentions, I forgot to list multiplayer as another feature that DQB2 has over the original. That only goes to strengthen the game's proposition, so I think it should easily hit the 1M mark.
On the legs of DQB1:
DQB percentage drop comparison Switch vs. PS4 vs. PS3 vs. PS Vita (Famitsu numbers):

Week 2:
Switch = -72%
PS4 = -77%
PS3 = -66%
PS Vita = -74%

Week 3:
Switch = -50%
PS4 = -52%
PS3 = -34%
PS Vita = -49%

Week 4:
Switch = -16%
PS4 = -54%
PS3 = -58%
PS Vita = -49%

Week 5:
Switch = -19%
PS4 = * Out of top 30 => drop bigger than -46% *
PS3 = -41%
PS Vita = -39%

Switch legs starting from the fourth week are decidedly stronger than those of the other versions so far, so maybe a LTD number of a much larger factor of the first week should be possible?

FW/LTD numbers:
Switch = 28.884 / 47.101 (x1.63 multiplier -- after 5 weeks)
PS4 = 137.894 / 250.460 (x1.82 multiplier)
PS3 = 55.791 / 116.580 (x2.09 multiplier)
PS Vita = 176.143 / 327.389 (x1.86 multiplier)

Switch is already close to the other versions' FW/LTD multiplier, and combining with the soft drops compared to other versions, I feel the game will have much better legs. As such, it will be incredibly interesting to see how much it will sell in the end, and if it will touch the 100k as time goes by.

Switch version will need to achieve a x3.46 multiplier to reach 100k, which would indicate strong legs, but is not unprecedented: DBXV2 did it before, and many Nintendo games do it all the time. We will see how it goes.
As you can see, the Switch version of DQB1 seems to be having decidedly stronger legs than the other versions. As such, I definitely expect DQB2 to have stronger legs than its PS4 counterpart, and than the launch SKUs for DQB1.

On the potential for the Switch SKU's strong performance and on the issue of current install base:
Hmm, I think Switch has more potential to sell a DQ game, especially one that plays like Minecraft in some ways, for a number of reasons:

- Switch has Minecraft on it for quite a while already, so the audience that is attracted to that game is on the system;
- Nintendo has a history of DQ games on their systems, so even if DQ mainline isn't on the system yet, the franchise is definitely associated with Nintendo systems;
- Switch is a much healthier platform than the Vita, so its userbase will grow a lot more, and furthermore Switch' software sales are very strong even compared to its install base, meaning that the system in itself very likely has a lot more selling power for a game as big as DQB2 will be;
- the system has been introduced to the DQB series via the port of the first one that released last month, so the spin-off series has been associated with the platform already;
- Switch games tend to have longer legs than PS4 games (even for DQB, the game is likely to sell more than 2x its FW sales on Switch since it's already at 1.5x after 4 weeks).

Basically, the combination of selling power of the platform combined with the fact that Nintendo systems have typically been associated with the franchise is what makes me think Switch is going to do a lot more than what you expect. Of course, PS4 has the association just as much, but I believe that all things being equal, the Switch can sell a lot more, especially for a game that probably will have longer legs than the first entry due to it having multiplayer and maybe also a DLC plan in the future.


That's true, but even then the Switch will creep quite a bit closer by the time this game launches (maybe it will have had the summer boost from the Splatoon DLC already). As I mentioned, my thoughts for FW are a 40/60 division in favour of Switch, although 45/55 division is plausible, too. Then, the Switch will have decently stronger legs to finish at a 30/70 split at the very end. Then, PS4 sales would be about 350k and Switch sales 850k in my estimation.
Finally, on my expectations for the game:
What are your expectations for DQB2? PS4 did 250k for the first one, and I expect that to go up a tad to 350k, and then Switch will probably do a lot better than Vita did imo. Maybe 700k would be more reasonable for you? That would still put the number at over 1M combined.
I expect the game to sell 1M-1.2M combined, with 700k-850k for the Switch version.
 
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