It Could be decent if they provide a lot of the console bundle that gives the game away for free.
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Media Create Sales: Week 13, 2020 (Mar 23 - Mar 29)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
13 mil LTD?! C-can it reach 20 mil by the end of the year?
In japan? Hell nooo that would be close to 9mil in 2020 o.O
The real thing is...still no pricedrop! It's insane what's going to happen, when the first pricedrop will happen!
Whut, she was assistent director of Wizardry: Tale of the Forsaken Land...
...she's the queen allright.
3DS in 2014 sold 3.1m units.
Switch is at 1.7m units, and well ahead of last year where full year sales were 4.5m.
Current difference between 3DS and Switch is 2.2m.
If switch is 100% flat this year, gap shrinks to 800k.
If switch sales are from w14-52 completely like last year(3.5m sold between w14-52 in 2019), switch would be on par with 3DS by the end of the year.
what are the chances of that ?
My guess is that sales will be down in nov/december since there wont be a pokemon game launching.
Also dont see the season pass helping HW sales for SWSH, even if it is the replacement of the third versions.
Switch is at 1.7m units, and well ahead of last year where full year sales were 4.5m.
Current difference between 3DS and Switch is 2.2m.
If switch is 100% flat this year, gap shrinks to 800k.
If switch sales are from w14-52 completely like last year(3.5m sold between w14-52 in 2019), switch would be on par with 3DS by the end of the year.
what are the chances of that ?
My guess is that sales will be down in nov/december since there wont be a pokemon game launching.
Also dont see the season pass helping HW sales for SWSH, even if it is the replacement of the third versions.
No chance at all imo.
It would need to get to 8m, and while it looks like it will comfortably overtake New Leaf when all is said and done, there is still a 3m difference between RGB and New Leaf.
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Considering there's a very good chance that it's over 4M with digital at this point you don't think it can do another 4 over the next 4-5 years?
It's possible it can get to 8mil though....... I mean it's gonna do 6mil this year alone ;)
I dont think so.
There is imo just a relatively hard cap on how much a individual game can sell, and i do think that cap is somewhere around 6 million in the current market.
do we know blue individual sales ?
Do you realize the game will very soon reach 4 million (including digital)? How can you think is impossible to sell another 4 million in the rest of his life considering all the important factors?
I don't think there is a hard cap. The game hits a very broad audience so I don't see that being a problem. I think 7 million is pretty much guaranteed but 8 is not out of the question. I mean its already very likely far above 4 million already.
Even Hard Caps can be taken off easily with the right set of tools
joking aside, 6mil isn't the cap, not the way AC and Switch is looking at now.
I think shortages will chop this off at the legs, which we're already seeing now. The OG Switch should be selling way better (especially with the in-demand AC version) and the Lite selling less.
If Nintendo/China don't resolve these problems, I think expectations will have to be lowered.
Don't want to sound rude but that's a random limit you put out of nowhere. No, 6 million is an unrealistic low prediction right now, you are not new to the MC/Famitsu and in general sales thread, you should know that's like a worst scenario and not the "best" it can sell.
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Agreed with Shortages and demand not being met just yet. This is the biggest launch and switch still has another 10mil+ of hardware to sell in its lifetime
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These are the games that sold over 5m in Japan
[GMB] Pokemon Red |GameBoy/Super GameBoy| <RPG> (Nintendo) {1996.02.27} (¥3.900) - 4.180.000
[GMB] Pokemon Green |GameBoy/Super GameBoy| <RPG> (Nintendo) {1996.02.27} (¥3.900) - 4.040.000
[GMB] Pokemon Silver |GameBoy/GameBoy Color/Super GameBoy| <RPG> (Nintendo) {1999.11.21} (¥3.800) - 3.640.000
[GMB] Pokemon Gold |GameBoy/GameBoy Color/Super GameBoy| <RPG> (Nintendo) {1999.11.21} (¥3.800) - 3.530.000
[FCM] Super Mario Bros. <ACT> (Nintendo) {1985.09.13} (¥4.900) - 6.810.000
[NDS] New Super Mario Bros. <ACT> (Nintendo) {2006.05.25} (¥4.571) - 6.490.000
[NDS] Pokemon Diamond / Pearl <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2006.09.28} (¥4.571) - 5.830.000
[3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf # <ETC> (Nintendo) {2012.11.08} (¥4.571) - 5.790.000
[NDS] Pokemon Black / White # <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2010.09.18} (¥4.571) - 5.540.000
[GBA] Pokemon Ruby / Sapphire <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2002.11.21} (¥4.571) - 5.400.000
[NDS] Animal Crossing: Wild World <ETC> (Nintendo) {2005.11.23} (¥4.571) - 5.350.000
[NDS] More Brain Training from Dr. Kawashima: How Old Is Your Brain? <HOB> (Nintendo) {2005.12.29} (¥2.540) - 5.100.000
[GMB] Pokemon Red |GameBoy/Super GameBoy| <RPG> (Nintendo) {1996.02.27} (¥3.900) - 4.180.000
[GMB] Pokemon Green |GameBoy/Super GameBoy| <RPG> (Nintendo) {1996.02.27} (¥3.900) - 4.040.000
[GMB] Pokemon Silver |GameBoy/GameBoy Color/Super GameBoy| <RPG> (Nintendo) {1999.11.21} (¥3.800) - 3.640.000
[GMB] Pokemon Gold |GameBoy/GameBoy Color/Super GameBoy| <RPG> (Nintendo) {1999.11.21} (¥3.800) - 3.530.000
[FCM] Super Mario Bros. <ACT> (Nintendo) {1985.09.13} (¥4.900) - 6.810.000
[NDS] New Super Mario Bros. <ACT> (Nintendo) {2006.05.25} (¥4.571) - 6.490.000
[NDS] Pokemon Diamond / Pearl <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2006.09.28} (¥4.571) - 5.830.000
[3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf # <ETC> (Nintendo) {2012.11.08} (¥4.571) - 5.790.000
[NDS] Pokemon Black / White # <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2010.09.18} (¥4.571) - 5.540.000
[GBA] Pokemon Ruby / Sapphire <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2002.11.21} (¥4.571) - 5.400.000
[NDS] Animal Crossing: Wild World <ETC> (Nintendo) {2005.11.23} (¥4.571) - 5.350.000
[NDS] More Brain Training from Dr. Kawashima: How Old Is Your Brain? <HOB> (Nintendo) {2005.12.29} (¥2.540) - 5.100.000
If anything that will have the opposite effect and legs will be even better!
And where are we asking the legs chopped off exactly? AC just probably had the best second week of all time (as well as the first) in software history (Japan)
I keep asking but can you give us the list of every game that sold over 5mil (if you don't mind of course)
You can get a rough idea from GDL.
Game Data Library - List of Million Sellers
[GB] Pokémon Red - 4.180.000 [GB] Pokémon Green - 4.040.000 [GB] Pokémon Blue - 2.010.000 [GB] Pokémon Silver - 3.640.000 [GB] Pokémon Gold - 3.530.000
sites.google.com
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Thank you, only 10 games sold over 5mil! 25 for over 4mil, depending on how much it did it could already be in the top 20 alongside smash and Pokémon swshYou can get a rough idea from GDL.
Game Data Library - List of Million Sellers
[GB] Pokémon Red - 4.180.000 [GB] Pokémon Green - 4.040.000 [GB] Pokémon Blue - 2.010.000 [GB] Pokémon Silver - 3.640.000 [GB] Pokémon Gold - 3.530.000
Well this is just sad. How did they manage to fudge this game's development so badly? On a second note, are expectations for this game high? As in I don't see the Inazuma Eleven IP doing as well as it used to, especially given how YW cratered.This week keeps getting crazier because Hino just delivered news on Inazuma Eleven: Eiyuu-tachi no Great Road now that they're rebooting the game:
- They're dropping the crossmedia ties for this game. It'll be an original story that won't be tied to the anime
- New protagonist that isn't a football player this time around but a manager ; focus will be given on seeing and making other known players interact
- Goal is to make the "ideal Inazuma Eleven game" and not an adaptation anymore
- They were using the YW4 engine at first but it's just not working well
- Keyword is "freedom"
- Hino thinks the game probably won't release till 2021 (no shit, they rebooted it last year)
I hope there's a chance for Brain Training to reach those numbers too on Switch! :)
A very real possibility. In that case they need a permanent ps4 price cut this year.
Whereas in the US and most of the rest of the west it now starts the first or second week of November, depending on the exact release schedule of big titles.
Cutting PS4 price means they make less money. Not a good idea when you're barely scrapping by
The OG Switch fell off a cliff in the weeks running up to AC's release and I think would've sold better without shortages this week and last week. If the same shortages of the OG version hit the Lite, then the baseline drops further when Nintendo runs out of the current stock (which may have already happened since the reports in this thread were that the Switch was sold out this weekend).
You can see from hiska's graphs that 2020 was outpacing 2019 before the covid shortages started. If these have been resolved, then I agree that 2020 will be a monster. I think we'll probably know more at the annual report at the end of the month.
Wow they still have substantial switch stock.
Maybe they'll make it to the April restock after all.
Maybe they'll make it to the April restock after all.
Weeks over 275k since 1995:
NDS - 13
NSW - 9
3DS - 8
GBA - 5
PS2 - 2
WII - 2
PS1 - 1
PSP - 1
PS4 - 1
PSV - 1
WIU - 1
Selling 20k a week at a lower price is better then 10k at a higher price.
I don't even think there is a point to a price cut anymore. Selling a few extra units won't make a difference. You don't want to put the upgrade (ps5) in such a big price difference imo
Amazing information.... Animal Crossing New Horizons is bigger in every conceivable way!
AC performance is pretty impressive, but that's not what I am admiring - Switch hardware sales must be one of the strongest non-launch performance in the second week after an important release.
Its not a random limit.
In the last 10 years, only two games managed to sell even 5m(being New Leaf and BW), one being a very well recieved title in the biggest media franchise releasing on a good time on the best selling device in japan ever, and the other being the best selling title on 23m 3DS installbase.
6m is 1m higher than even that very high bar, and a fantastic result for any game, putting it into top 5 best selling games in japan ever.
Treating 6m as a "worst case scenario" is just delusional, and going to lead to the usual dissapointment that happens after unrealistic goals set by people in MC threads arent met by reality.
There are literally only 4 games that ever passed 6m, 3 of which were back 20+ years ago, and the only one since was the best selling title on the best selling device in japan ever.
I get that hype about sales is high after such a great opening, but going from 2 weeks of data to claiming that the game will end up as the fifth best selling title ever in japan as a worst case scenario is a bit much.
I would love to see New Horizon go on to become the best selling title in japan ever, but i do not think it will do so in the current market.
Its much higher opening compared to other AC titles will most likely mean legs will not be as impressive, because a larger percentage of the audience is jumping onboard right away.