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Media Create Sales: Week 14, 2018 (Apr 02 - Apr 08)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
Yeah yeah yeah, meanwhile last month they said they had no idea what it would look like on the Switch. And now it's delayed. A further delay into 2019 isn't the craziest thing that could happen. Announcing a game too soon and not being ready at all is something we've seen before.
They have footage at least, but let's not act like you guys are 100% sure this game will release alongside the others without any hitch.
They have footage at least, but let's not act like you guys are 100% sure this game will release alongside the others without any hitch.
The game doesn't even have a a release date in the west.
Right now there's no reason the believe the game will be delayed again.
He is making fun of my little remark by comparing it to an absurd and unrelated situation, saving Sega's honor in the process.
Media Create is very serious.
I know I won't assume otherwise just because Square Enix cannot get their development together like usual. These are different companies and there is no reason to draw any comparisons at this stage.
It's weird that this is the conclusion you came to.
That said seeing a game that's literally delayed an additional season with actual gameplay footage far into development and that's the thing that makes you flashback to Square Enix's "we announced the game 3 years ago and we basically couldn't work on it until last year when a better version of the engine we used was available so now both the Japanese and Western releases are up in the air". That's also weird.
In what way.
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I read on twitter that they apparently dropped the price of VC4 Switch for Japan, but it was unsourced. Anyone know if this is true?
Here's what they will do that isn't good business sense at all. Not only will they release VC1, but they will also release Skies of Arcadia on Switch to give context to the cameo characters no one will probably care about in an effort to boost contextual sales of VC4. And it will only be in english. And on twitter they will refer to me specifically as it will be a nice late birthday gift for delaying the summer release.
It makes sense to do this.
It's apparently not far into development though, as they didn't have it running last month, it's apparently buggy as hell and they mention difficulty porting it.(going by what others have said)
I still haven't heard a source for that bit, I only keep hearing second hand information from "that one guy", is it mark?
Probably confused about the fact you can get a discount VC1 if you preorder VC4 or something.
It's what they're saying in the video, supposedly.
Well in any case, if they're basically bugtesting the PS4 version on the Switch, that would at least explain the extra months of delay.
I still think the Skies of Arcadia release in the exact context I've given is genius though and they should do it.
It's not like anyone owns the PS4 version anyway. It's got that going for it. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Time stamp, or it didn't happen. Its unusual for Japanese developers to say this on stream.
Especially the buggy part.
I watched the video, while they mentioned that it was buggy, that's just what you say when showing something pre-release to hedge disappointment for a work in progress.
There was no mention that it was particularly difficult to port to Switch. They apologize for making Switch owners wait, but that It would be difficult to properly test all the levels and patch the bugs that may be in them by Summer so they are postponing release till Fall.
There was no mention that it was particularly difficult to port to Switch. They apologize for making Switch owners wait, but that It would be difficult to properly test all the levels and patch the bugs that may be in them by Summer so they are postponing release till Fall.
Comparing this to DQXI is ridiculous. DQXI Switch was announced many years ago and will still manage to be a 2019 or even 2020 release. VC4 will just release months after it was announced.
Thanks for translating, that definitely sounds less/not negative.
Well that's reassuring. That's porting business as usual then. Thanks for the translation!
Do you have the timestamp and video link so I can look it up. Much appreciated.
Thanks KtSlime for watching the video for us and explaining it! The summary that Mark H posted in the other thread sounded like the kind of unnuanced representation that a gamer with no knowledge of a dev cycle would produce (no offence to Mark H), kind of how people started freaking out about Ninja Theory's game Hellblade being in development hell because they retired a prototype. Glad that wasn't a faithful representation.
Hey, it's not over yet! Still one more episode!!
Yes, it won't change anything.
They didn't drop the price, they just announced that it would be 7 490 Yen + taxes (it was TBC until now). And yes, that just so happens to be 500 Yen cheaper than the PS4 version at MSRP.
As an early purchase bonus, all copies of VC4 will come with a discount coupon to download VC1 on Switch for 500 Yen (+ taxes). Basically a 1 500 Yen off discount coupon since VC1 standalone is 1 990 Yen + taxes.
Which part, the mention of bugs? The video was the one posted by Martin earlier on the page. He says まだちょっと全然バッグバッグだらけで at 36s in. Translating it would be "It's still a bit, completely full of bugs", but I consider that to be a self(company) deprecating statement.
I want to say that Mark's isn't wrong, but it is a bit I feel sensationally written. It is true that they said they recently just got it running on Switch. The interviewer states that it must be hard to port to a different system, and the Sega employee humors him and agrees. The interviewer really tries to drive this point, so it is difficult to judge.
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Ha! As soon as I saw this I knew you would bring it to my attention. I'll concede your insane negativity towards Switch wasn't completely off base in this case- but as of now I wouldn't call it a major issue or anything.
Expected but it sucks to hear the news...
At least there's VC1 port coming as well...
It will be interesting what happens with hardware supply for Labo launch, Golden Week, May and June.
There is considerably more titles compared to last year and I expect larger hardware availability. In terms of hardware sales Labo launch, Golden Week and Mario Tennis Aces will be the weeks where we would get the largest supply of Switches. I think we will also see a few titles from 2018 get a boost during Labo launch/Golden Week/Mario Tennis Aces launches. Overall large Switch hardware availability in May should help leggy titles considering there is only DKTF and Dark Souls launching the entire month.
Just for comparison these are the Switch hardware sales for April, May, June 2017:
Week 14: 41.193
Week 15: 45.673
Week 16: 47.911
Week 17: 24.712
Week 18(MK8D launch): 76.679
Week 19: 24.712
Week 20: 26.114
Week 21: 27.146
Week 22: 23.524
Week 23: 27.291
Week 24(Arms launch): 37.709
Week 25: 22.361
Week 26: 25.805
TOTAL: 450.830
There was 450K sales during Q2/2017 which is an average of 34K per week.
This year the baseline has so far not strayed from 40-50K despite a very slow period in terms of software releases during January and February. Right now the average is 51K per week for the Switch in 2018.
Week 16 will mark the release of Labo and I can see hardware availability rising slightly to around >60K for the Labo launch. Week 17 is looking like a week we will see a major update for Splatoon 2 and Labo's second week, as well as a bunch of smaller games launch, I can see it also maintaining higher supply of >60K. Golden Week follows and DKTF is released which I think will lead to an even bigger week for the Switch of >70K before things slow down for the rest of May/June and for the baseline to drop back down to 40-50K. Week 25 will mark the release of Mario Tennis Aces and I expect that to also lead to larger hardware availability. If this all comes to fruition sales will surpass 650K by the end of June. So before the summer holiday we'd be looking at a userbase of >4.6M. This would mean that for the first half of the year the average amount of Switches sold would be around 49K per week.
For the second half of the year Nintendo would need to sell only >3.3M to surpass 4.5M for 2018. That requires an average of >126K per week, last year they sold >2.2M which required an average of 87K per week for the second half of the year.
I wouldn't be surprised if they sell >1.15M in July/August/September Obon + September Smash launch with an average of 88K per week. Splatoon 2 DLC, Inazuma, Taiko, Octopath are all major titles that will be helped by Obon and topping off the quarter with the launch of Smash and the new paid online service. This would make Q3 nearly as big as Q1/Q2 combined in terms of hardware sales. In Q3/2017 Switch sold 745K with an average of 57K sales, During the prior two quarters they sold 1M which obviously includes the launch and only 15 weeks the average for the first two quarters was actually 69K.
For Switch to reach >2.2M during the last quarter of the year, it would require a average of 161K per week. Last year the Switch sold >1.6M during the last quarter with an average of 124K per week. By the time the fall rolls around 3DS will be a non-factor and all sales will concentrate on the single system. Last year 3DS sold 450K during the last quarter and had two big games launch during that time - Pokemon US/UM and YWB2. This year those sales would decline and I can see 3DS barely sell 200K.
With Pokemon, Yo-Kai, Fire Emblem and DQB2 all potentially launching in the fall, I can see the Switch surpassing this total. Obviously surpassing 2.2M would make it the biggest quarter they've had for a single system since the DS days in Japan - 3DS's best quarter was Q4/2012 when it also sold >2.2M. I think it's possible for the Switch to sell 2.4M in Japan during the fall since I expect Q4 Switch sales to represent around >40% of total sales for 2018. This would require a massive average of 184K per week, which is entirely possible and would represent a 48% increase YoY in terms of Switch sales but just 16% increase compared to the combined 3DS and Switch sales in Q4/2017. As I said previously Switch's success in consolidating the dedicated video-game market will effect other consoles. 3DS and PSV already declined sharply since Switch released but I can see it also leading to a more pronounced decline for the PS4 as well. In 2017 PS4 managed 480K during Q3 and 500K sales during the last quarter of the year, this year I expect that the PS4 will see a decline both quarters. There is no DQXI and Switch stock and game launches will be plentiful. Last year PS4 was selling 20-30K during the summer, this summer I honestly don't see it selling more than 20K. Overall I won't be surprised if the PS4 finishes this year with 1.5M-1.6M sales.
In terms of World Wide Shipments I expect Nintendo to ship 19-20M units this year, and majority of the shipments to come during the second half of the year. I expect Japan to maintain 25% of supply for all quarters except the 3rd quarter since summer vacation is far more important in Japan than anywhere else in the World. Japan sell through will end up close to the shipped number.
Q1 WW Shipment: 700K Japan / 2.1M RotW / 2.8M Total
Q2 WW Shipment: 700K Japan / 2.1M RotW / 2.8M Total
Q3 WW Shipment: 1.25M Japan / 2.9M RotW/ 4.15M Total
Q4 WW Shipment: 2.5M Japan / 7.5M RotW / 10M Total
Last year the Switch sold 7.63M for the first 3 quarters and ended the year at 14.86M so the first 3 quarters of 2018 would see an overall increase of 28% in terms of sales while Q4 would need a 38% increase in terms of sales.
At E3 I do expect to see a bunch of announcements for Western 3rd party games that will be launched in the fall after Smash.
There is considerably more titles compared to last year and I expect larger hardware availability. In terms of hardware sales Labo launch, Golden Week and Mario Tennis Aces will be the weeks where we would get the largest supply of Switches. I think we will also see a few titles from 2018 get a boost during Labo launch/Golden Week/Mario Tennis Aces launches. Overall large Switch hardware availability in May should help leggy titles considering there is only DKTF and Dark Souls launching the entire month.
Just for comparison these are the Switch hardware sales for April, May, June 2017:
Week 14: 41.193
Week 15: 45.673
Week 16: 47.911
Week 17: 24.712
Week 18(MK8D launch): 76.679
Week 19: 24.712
Week 20: 26.114
Week 21: 27.146
Week 22: 23.524
Week 23: 27.291
Week 24(Arms launch): 37.709
Week 25: 22.361
Week 26: 25.805
TOTAL: 450.830
There was 450K sales during Q2/2017 which is an average of 34K per week.
This year the baseline has so far not strayed from 40-50K despite a very slow period in terms of software releases during January and February. Right now the average is 51K per week for the Switch in 2018.
Week 16 will mark the release of Labo and I can see hardware availability rising slightly to around >60K for the Labo launch. Week 17 is looking like a week we will see a major update for Splatoon 2 and Labo's second week, as well as a bunch of smaller games launch, I can see it also maintaining higher supply of >60K. Golden Week follows and DKTF is released which I think will lead to an even bigger week for the Switch of >70K before things slow down for the rest of May/June and for the baseline to drop back down to 40-50K. Week 25 will mark the release of Mario Tennis Aces and I expect that to also lead to larger hardware availability. If this all comes to fruition sales will surpass 650K by the end of June. So before the summer holiday we'd be looking at a userbase of >4.6M. This would mean that for the first half of the year the average amount of Switches sold would be around 49K per week.
For the second half of the year Nintendo would need to sell only >3.3M to surpass 4.5M for 2018. That requires an average of >126K per week, last year they sold >2.2M which required an average of 87K per week for the second half of the year.
I wouldn't be surprised if they sell >1.15M in July/August/September Obon + September Smash launch with an average of 88K per week. Splatoon 2 DLC, Inazuma, Taiko, Octopath are all major titles that will be helped by Obon and topping off the quarter with the launch of Smash and the new paid online service. This would make Q3 nearly as big as Q1/Q2 combined in terms of hardware sales. In Q3/2017 Switch sold 745K with an average of 57K sales, During the prior two quarters they sold 1M which obviously includes the launch and only 15 weeks the average for the first two quarters was actually 69K.
For Switch to reach >2.2M during the last quarter of the year, it would require a average of 161K per week. Last year the Switch sold >1.6M during the last quarter with an average of 124K per week. By the time the fall rolls around 3DS will be a non-factor and all sales will concentrate on the single system. Last year 3DS sold 450K during the last quarter and had two big games launch during that time - Pokemon US/UM and YWB2. This year those sales would decline and I can see 3DS barely sell 200K.
With Pokemon, Yo-Kai, Fire Emblem and DQB2 all potentially launching in the fall, I can see the Switch surpassing this total. Obviously surpassing 2.2M would make it the biggest quarter they've had for a single system since the DS days in Japan - 3DS's best quarter was Q4/2012 when it also sold >2.2M. I think it's possible for the Switch to sell 2.4M in Japan during the fall since I expect Q4 Switch sales to represent around >40% of total sales for 2018. This would require a massive average of 184K per week, which is entirely possible and would represent a 48% increase YoY in terms of Switch sales but just 16% increase compared to the combined 3DS and Switch sales in Q4/2017. As I said previously Switch's success in consolidating the dedicated video-game market will effect other consoles. 3DS and PSV already declined sharply since Switch released but I can see it also leading to a more pronounced decline for the PS4 as well. In 2017 PS4 managed 480K during Q3 and 500K sales during the last quarter of the year, this year I expect that the PS4 will see a decline both quarters. There is no DQXI and Switch stock and game launches will be plentiful. Last year PS4 was selling 20-30K during the summer, this summer I honestly don't see it selling more than 20K. Overall I won't be surprised if the PS4 finishes this year with 1.5M-1.6M sales.
In terms of World Wide Shipments I expect Nintendo to ship 19-20M units this year, and majority of the shipments to come during the second half of the year. I expect Japan to maintain 25% of supply for all quarters except the 3rd quarter since summer vacation is far more important in Japan than anywhere else in the World. Japan sell through will end up close to the shipped number.
Q1 WW Shipment: 700K Japan / 2.1M RotW / 2.8M Total
Q2 WW Shipment: 700K Japan / 2.1M RotW / 2.8M Total
Q3 WW Shipment: 1.25M Japan / 2.9M RotW/ 4.15M Total
Q4 WW Shipment: 2.5M Japan / 7.5M RotW / 10M Total
Last year the Switch sold 7.63M for the first 3 quarters and ended the year at 14.86M so the first 3 quarters of 2018 would see an overall increase of 28% in terms of sales while Q4 would need a 38% increase in terms of sales.
At E3 I do expect to see a bunch of announcements for Western 3rd party games that will be launched in the fall after Smash.
The dev comments sound less like it's a hardware issue and more like, "we just started the port and it's taking longer than expected"
Thats true, but it is retail versions with download goods in it, either partially (DLC) or full games. Those have sold in the past, so i'm not sure that PS4 and Xbox One owners would shy away from that completely if it was the only option available.
But its hard to know for sure what the reason is regarding the Mega Man X Collection. Peronally, i think it can be several reasons, but i think the main one is that they simply dont want to take the time and money to make a version thats all in one game (hence why its two discs on PS4 and Xbox One), and therefor doesnt want to pay to use two cards for the Switch version.
game development takes time regardless of how demanding a game is
Did VC4 on the Switch have an actual release date before? Or just place holder dates from retailers? Has it actually been delayed or are we just speculating that too?
The game looked great though, in the short video showing the Switch running VC4. So I don't know what you're referring to being sad...
It was supposed to come out in summer in Japan, now it's fall. In the west it has no release date yet for either system, so over there it's not yet delayed.
Or when DQXI flops in September, SOA/West will take the opposite approach and push all 3 (actually 4) versions to Q1 2019.
Why would it take so long. Localization will probably be done by fall and the Switch version *apparently* will be ready at that time too.
Hopefully they're smart enough to get out of Fire Emblem's way.
Since the announcement I thought "they will manage to release close to Fire Emblem and get overshadowed" and that keeps looking more and more likely...
Regarding VC4, they've now got the game up and running, so it's all about getting rid of bugs and optimization, which will take time if they're to do it right.
I'd rather have a well running game than releasing it in a semi broken state with "we'll fix it later" mentality, so I'd say delay it as much as necessary.
I'd rather have a well running game than releasing it in a semi broken state with "we'll fix it later" mentality, so I'd say delay it as much as necessary.
It's annoying that devs don't start working on ports until the game is out elsewhere, but as long as they all come out at the same time in the West it might be fine?
Probably better than not announcing a switch version until much later hoping people would just double dip
Probably better than not announcing a switch version until much later hoping people would just double dip
it's a new announcement. pretty much an apology announcement