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Media Create Sales: Week 14, 2018 (Apr 02 - Apr 08)

extralite

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
217
who the hell is higan.

Screw this.

Also you clearly have no idea what Yasuda sometimes say right?

There are many words in Japan to describe the two terms, but he choose those two.

Whatever I will take it down if that is what you wish
You got the meaning right, just not the nuance.

Kodawaru is an extremely common term, usually without negative connotation, reading obsession into it doesn't seem right. Higan acknowledges the stakes maybe? Now that it turned out a great success I don't think desperation fits, at least not anymore.
 

Aters

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
7,948
I hope Metal Max can pull through. It doesn't matter if it has the lowest production value on earth. If the core MM experience is unchanged, fans will appreciate it. There's really nothing like it in the JRPG space.
 

Deleted member 2793

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
15,368
I hope Metal Max can pull through. It doesn't matter if it has the lowest production value on earth. If the core MM experience is unchanged, fans will appreciate it. There's really nothing like it in the JRPG space.
I think it's just too niche to do really well. Weren't the Metal Saga games the last ones on PS too?
 

MoonFrog

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,748
I think Ys VIII Switch will tank in Japan but be huge (for NISA) in the west. Ys in general is a good match for Zelda loving Nintendo gamers and I remember hearing way back even the Wii VC Ys I & II was one of Hudson’s better sellers.
I want Ys to do well on Switch very badly. It makes me almost want to double dip but I'm not going to actually buy a game for that reason when I just played it on another console. But Ys VIII is really good. I hope Switch gamers appreciate it properly :). It'd be great for Falcom and Switch if they did.

(And I hope NIS/Falcom do make this relationship a running thing, although I imagine it'd always be late and often I'll have bought the Falcom games I care about elsewhere before it comes to fruition).
 
Oct 25, 2017
14,681
I don't know how much the rest of you know about Japanese culture (I'm an expert), but I'm pretty sure that if you're only relying on wiktionary and google translate you really should learn to stay at your place and not confront someone who's literally a japanese speaker instead of trying your best to defend your favourite company.
 

Gotdatmoney

Member
Oct 28, 2017
8,310
Some of yall are so involved in your fucking console wars. I swear. All this good info and that shit is what you make a mountain out of? Come on.
 

Rainrir

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
1,337
You got the meaning right, just not the nuance.

Kodawaru is an extremely common term, usually without negative connotation, reading obsession into it doesn't seem right. Higan acknowledges the stakes maybe? Now that it turned out a great success I don't think desperation fits, at least not anymore.
Its kodawari the noun, not kodawaru the verb, and you lecture me on Japanese. And Yasuda emphasized it with Tsuyoi Kodawari.

Capcom was not confident to give any guidance on MHW sales, but still went ahead with it, this already says a lot about their desperate determination to push it and help it break out in the west.
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,679
The Netherlands
Oh look, someone managed to piss off someone with special skills/knowledge such that we lose insight once again, good job!

This isn't the NPD thread, people. Can't we just be happy that we get insight instead of getting our undergarments in a twist over wording you don't like?
 

extralite

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
217
I don't know how much the rest of you know about Japanese culture (I'm an expert), but I'm pretty sure that if you're only relying on wiktionary and google translate you really should learn to stay at your place and not confront someone who's literally a japanese speaker instead of trying your best to defend your favourite company.
I worked as a translator at NoE. The German translation of Phantom Hourglass is by me.

Its kodawari, and you lecture me on Japanese
Kodawari is a nominalization of the verb kodawaru. Obviously the meaning is derived from the verb.
 

sfortunato

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,998
Italy
I don't understand the rationale behind Famitsu maybe not tracking Labo. It's still a videogame after all.

Anyway, it doesn't seem that the move per se to bring Metal Max on Sony hardware is really paying off. Recent entries:

3DS Metal Max 4: Moonlight Diva 23.092 41.619 Kadokawa Games 07/11/2013
NDS Metal Max 2: Reloaded 27.115 55.858 Kadokawa Games 08/12/2011
NDS Metal Max 3 50.838 91.722 Kadokawa Games 29/07/2010
 

Principate

Member
Oct 31, 2017
7,221
I don't know how much the rest of you know about Japanese culture (I'm an expert), but I'm pretty sure that if you're only relying on wiktionary and google translate you really should learn to stay at your place and not confront someone who's literally a japanese speaker instead of trying your best to defend your favourite company.
Yeah that whole discussion was quite pretty yikes. I'm not sure why on earth someone would feel the need to argue with a native speaker over a translation if your not one. If your also one go ahead.
 

Aters

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
7,948
I think it's just too niche to do really well. Weren't the Metal Saga games the last ones on PS too?
Yeah.

It doesn't need to do really well, just on par with previous entries that's all I'm asking. These games are made with a budget of a pizza. PS4+PSV might hurt its sales potential. But the decision was probably made when they didn't know what Switch is. Wonder how it will do outside Japan. Even just a few more thousand copies mean a lot for a game like this.
 

Rainrir

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
1,337
I worked as a translator at NoE. The German translation of Phantom Hourglass is by me.


Kodawari is a nominalization of the verb kodawaru. Obviously the meaning is derived from the verb.
Read what Yasuda says about Sony in this article.

Then come back and tell me how he usually presents his opinion.

Higan implies Capcom have the determination to push MHW comes hell or high water, and is ready for it to flop if it did flop (which i didn't). This is why they didn't give an guidance on how MHW will do, despite also giving guidance on RE7 and MvCU.
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,679
The Netherlands
God of War's prediction, if it turns out to be correct, would mean a minimal increase over GOW3 (which did 44.583 units FW). I think it'll be higher than 50k myself.
 

Deleted member 2793

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
15,368
I don't understand the rationale behind Famitsu maybe not tracking Labo. It's still a videogame after all.

Anyway, it doesn't seem that the move per se to bring Metal Max on Sony hardware is really paying off. Recent entries:

3DS Metal Max 4: Moonlight Diva 23.092 41.619 Kadokawa Games 07/11/2013
NDS Metal Max 2: Reloaded 27.115 55.858 Kadokawa Games 08/12/2011
NDS Metal Max 3 50.838 91.722 Kadokawa Games 29/07/2010
it's not that far from 4 tho. Series just has low appeal and that's even why they tried PS this time.
 

Eolz

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
7,601
FR
I don't really see why you would delete your entire post Rainrir , since despite the usual debates about what a word means in MC (a couple means two), the conclusion to take from it is nearly the same.
Thanks for that, since a quote is still there at least.

edit: to clarify: I have no idea about the proper meaning and which is right/wrong. Just saying your post was great whatever the meaning of a word amongst a ton of others.
 

vala

Member
Oct 25, 2017
662
I don't know how much the rest of you know about Japanese culture (I'm an expert), but I'm pretty sure that if you're only relying on wiktionary and google translate you really should learn to stay at your place and not confront someone who's literally a japanese speaker instead of trying your best to defend your favourite company.
Well well well
It seems a professional translator agrees with me
*shrug*
 

fiendcode

Member
Oct 26, 2017
12,374
It’s because of that PS-fanboy ex-EIC Hirokazu Hamamura. Somehow he got Famitsu to not track Labo ensuring MHW will be the best selling game this year.

Next he’ll get them to not track Pokémon 8.
 

Nibel

Enfant terrible
Member
Oct 24, 2017
1,559
Alright, I'll make myself clear here:

1) If you bring offsite bullshit into this thread over and over again, despite being told and warned not to do that as it just adds toxicity into this thread, I will have to remove you from this forum

2) If you have an issue with a translation, the dumbest way to engage is to accuse the translator of being a liar and fanboy, especially when you have been warned for the latter yourself. I believe there are more effective and polite ways to express interest in having different translations - especially when it comes to Japanese, a language that is quite nuanced

3) While I can understand how those accusations are frustrating, I'm not too fond of removing that post in question considering the vast majority of this thread should not be responsible for the actions of few

4) In general, I would like to ask people to use the report function more often instead of trying to "dunk" on someone. None of us staff members want to intervene and most threads are perfectly capable to take care of themselves, but when escalations like this happen it would be good to let us now; most of the other staffers do not frequent this thread at all and Zhuge + myself are not here all the time

And with that the thread is open again
 
Oct 25, 2017
8,614
YSO prediction numbers are up.

Labo might be higher than I thought.
100k for Variety Kit and <20k for Robo Kit :p

Will they really be counted as the same game despite being different?

No reviews yet for Labo so I’m guessing sales might depend on word of mouth to parents.
I’m guessing it’ll do pretty well world wide but I still don’t have a clear picture of just how well it’ll do
 

konoka

Member
Dec 20, 2017
262
Hey Japanese here and Rainrir's translation is wrong.
In the article, "悲願" and "こだわり" don't have any negative meaning.
 

Rainrir

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
1,337
I will restore my post out of respect for Nibel's recommendations

So basically, before the April madness of all the revenue reports for Japanese game companies erupts on MC, I think it is a good time to review how the companies have already performed thus far. ACE Yasuda is a analyst for the Japanese market for ACE Institute and he has made a 10 year chart of the performance of each company, along with his takes for the outlook of these companies. The original Japanese version can be found here.

I fully expect these information to be ignored for the standard console warring, but I think I want to finish what I started.


SQUARE ENIX



For March 2018, Q3 (Cumulative), compared to the same period last year, we have lowered revenues yet increased operating profits, revenue of 188.0 billion yen is down 1%, Operating Profit of 33.7 billion yen is up 57%.

With regards to the reduction in revenue, the primary reasons are the difference in revenue for simultaneous world-wide launched HD titles like FFXV and the largely domestic launch of Dragon Quest 11, and the underperformance of anticipated amusement machine “Densha de GO”. As for this quarter (3 months duration), compared to the 2nd quarter this year, revenues and profits are much reduced. In addition to “Dragon Quest” 11 having already made its sales cycle, there is signs of slow down on the smartphone game app segment where it generated revenues of 23.7 billion yen in the 1st quarter, 22.7 billion yen in the 2nd quarter, and 21.3 billion in the third.

As for increased operating profits, one reason was the release of the expansion to Dragon Quest X, as SE lost profit last year when no expansion was released for this game, and continued strong download sales of legacy software like Nier Automata.

The mobile game market as a whole seems to be in a slump in the 3rd quarter of this year, many companies experienced reduced revenues compared to previous quarters, including companies like the later-mentioned Bandai Namco Holdings. The reasons for this varies by company, but for non-specific reasons, there is a possibility that the market is influenced by the process of saturation. While smartphones are rapidly achieving high performance in the market, it is impossible to deny that design-wise (I assume he means game design) it has become stratified, and the playstyles of mobile game players have become increasingly fixed.

For HD Games, the company have added the Nintendo Switch as a target for multiplatform development. AAA titles will seemingly arrive in the following quarters, the assessment is that there are many chances of increasing profitability for Square Enix.

TLDR:

  • Mobile Market shows signs of saturation in Japan, based on previous 3 quarters contraction by multiple companies, Square Enix is affected as well.
  • Service games (like DQX) and digital legacy sales are key profit drivers for SE. Expect SE to go in harder on them. This is why DQX and FF14 will never die, and why SE is investigating PUBG's model company-wide.
  • Multiple growth opportunity will likely come from new AAA games, and possibly Switch software, due to possible stalled mobile market.

BANDAI NAMCO



Next is Bandai Namco Holdings. For the March 2018, Q3 (Cumulative), compared to the same period last year, we have increased revenue yet reduced profits: revenue is up 5% to 483.1 billion yen, while operating profit is down to 53.4 billion

The reasons for this is due to the Music and Visual Production department, which is responsible for animation and the likes, have been struggling up till this quarter due to its second-half centred plans, the difference in console games titles released (from the previous year), and the adjustment in accounting due to setting up of the new Gundam Base Tokyo (replacing Gundam Front Tokyo).

The mobile game segment had reduced revenues compared to the previous quarters. There is some problems with the timing of various events (for their mobile games). However, ACE Economic Research Institute expects “Dragon Ball Dokkan Battle” to return to its base line revenue performance in the 4th quarter, around the time of the 3rd anniversary for the game.

Due to the possession of a rich array of IPs, the basic strategy for Bandai Namco is to wait for hardware (which, I think he means platforms in general and not strictly a physical machine) to be widely diffused, then enter the market to take up a high share later. However, this time their strategy seems to be to debut early on HTML5. This is likely stemming from a desire to reduce royalty payments towards Apple and Google.

Nevertheless, since there is a trend towards more traffic towards HMTL 5 (I assume he means games), it is necessary for Bandai Namco to cautiously monitor whether there is player acceptance (for their own HTML 5 games).

For the company going forward, it is taking up the challenge of creating the framework for a company structure that can continuously create new IP 30 year ahead. It will be difficult to see the apparent effects of an investment strategy that is built on a very long strategic outlook. In terms of what ACE Research Institute can capture in terms of the companies’ allocation of “People, Hardware, Cash”, in the long term the management is expected to continue to expand its sales, and implement measure meant for ultra-long term strategic view during the periods of financial plenty.

TLDR:
  • Bamco has a hyper long-term strategic outlook for itself, and invests for the long term, this can be seen from its European development Initiative (not mentioned here) and the new focus on IP (as stated in its investor briefing slides).
  • Bamco is almost never in the rush to be a new platform, their strategy is to wait for certain amount of penetration before they make their move. Due to their IP strength, they can afford to do this.
  • Exception to above is HTML 5 where they are uncharacteristically aggressive (Basically, HTML 5> NSW in priority). Speculated to be due to wanting to avoid platform fees of Google/Apple.
  • Bamco also faced contraction in the mobile space for 3 quaters.
  • Bamco is more than twice the size of SE in terms of revenue and profits.

CAPCOM



It’s time to shift the focus and talk about Capcom. For the March 2018, Q3 (Cumulative), compared to the same period last year, we have reduced revenue yet increased profits: revenue is down 11% to 47.7 billion yen, while operating profit is up 37% to 7 billion


While the reduction in unit sales from the amusement machine division cause a dip in revenue, increase in the number of consumer software sold, and income contributed by in the mobile game department from licensing, have greatly increased profits.


With regards to the company, there is honestly not much point to say more (since he had already posted an article on MH:World last month). To pick up from what was said last month, Monster Hunter World that was released the 1st of January has become a massive hit with 6 million sold. As discussed before, Capcom has a fervent and desperate wish to make “Monster Hunter” into a brand that can sell massively overseas. While it is difficult to say it has achieved this completely, given the high domestic ratio of sales for MHW, it can be considered to have somewhat reached its goal since it has raised overseas sales significantly.


Compared to the original forecast of sales around 2.5 million units by the ACE Economic Research Institute, the forecast is now much greatly revised upwards, at this time, dare we say that by the end of the quarter the target forecast would be higher than 7 million unit sales. The chief reason for the erroneous forecast is that ACE Research Institute has missed the point that portable local co-op have collapsed far more then we expected.


In this 10 years, the commercialization of tethering functions in devices, the proliferation of Smartphones and the widening adoption of social networking services and the likes, along with the widespread consumer adoption of online services by consumers, the culture of portable co-op gaming represented by the DS, PSP era is has became terribly outdated. We will reflect upon our lateness in spotting such a trend.


As for Capcom, since they have a strong obsession at providing content for cutting edge platforms, coupled with the success of MHW, it probably will continue AAA games going forward on PS4/XBOX/PC.


TLDR:
  • MHW is smash hit. Yasuda misread its performamce due to him underestimating to how much portable local multiplayer has collapsed world wide, and has been replaced by online functionalities
  • Capcom has always been obsessed with competing in the high end space, and wants majority of its sales to be overseas, so he expects development to be primarily XBOX/PS/PC focused (basically, forget about serious support for NSW).
  • Capcom is about half of SE's size in terms of profit and revenue.

TECMO KOEI



Next, we have Tecmo Koei Holdings. Compared to the same period last year, we have reduced revenue yet greatly increased profits: revenue is down 0.7% to 24 billion yen, while operating profit is up 62% to 5.6 billion


In the third quarter, since the company released “Nobunaga’s Ambition: Taishi” and “Atelier Lydie and Suelle” domestically, and released “Fire Emblem Warriors” overseas, it has achieved a vast increase in profits. While there this company has a habit of concentrating its profit generation towards the 4th quarter, we believe that the company already managed to have good year given the performance up to the third quarter.


Given that from an early stage the company has been enthusiastic supporter of the Nintendo Switch, it has not yet able to show satisfactory results. While the reasons for this are unclear at this current moment, we suspect it could be the influence of not going all out to bring all titles to the Nintendo Switch. We look forward to what support will become going forward.

TLDR:
This is from me
  • Also, when analysts say KT is "well run", the refer to its unusually high revenue to gross profit ratio. Look at the relative size of the red bars to the blue bars for the past 5 years, and compare it to the other companies
  • However, KT can't relying on being well run forever given the waning strength of its IP

NIPPON ICHI



While not a big player, we will like to touch upon Nippon-Ichi Software. Up until the third quarter, the progress of the company has been strong, operating profit has been 552 million yen, which is a major over performance compared to the projected 490 million yen.

This is the result of the success of Disgaea 5 in the western markets, where the company have changed its strategy of aiming only at a particular segment of the Playstation base, and started to aim at a wider user base.

Going forward, the company has the intention to apply the same strategy of aiming at a wider user base beyond the title “Y’s 8”, which they are handling both the porting and publishing work, for Nihon Falcom titles. Due to the high loyalty to PlayStation platform, there has been expression of disgust and concern from PlayStation fans. However, the view of ACE Economic Research Institute, a highly negative reaction indicates a high amount of interest in the title, and the greater the negative interest the more likely we will see strong performance. This, along with the raised awareness of the company’s profile worldwide, makes us believe that this title will show results.

ACE Economic Research Institute used to evaluate that the company will have a difficult time to expand sales due to its reliance on a very specific segment of the market. Now we consider the company to have a chance for tremendous leaps due to the targeting of new platforms such as the Nintendo Switch and Steam and would like to watch it closely.

TLDR:

  • Despite rabid PlayStation fans bashing the move, Yasuda believes the Falcom collaboration on the NSW will be a success.
  • Nippon Ichi targeting the NSW is a good move as it freed itself from targeting just a segment of PS-only gamers and aim for a wider market (which means both systems). Disgaea 5 is the first success of that strategy, but we shall see how the others do.

That's all.
 

Nirolak

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,660
The hell happened while I was asleep??
Someone translated the an analyst article as “desperate and fervent” when apparently it was something more like “eager and adamant”, though I don’t think this difference is all that meaningful given they basically just meant “Capcom is aggressively trying to expand Monster Hunter overseas”.

There was then a giant war over this.

That said, it’s not actually clear to me that the analysis here in general is correct since IIRC Square’s mobile revenue has actually went up this year. It’s just that their new titles have failed while their existing ones have grown, with Namco being in a similar situation. We’ll find out for certain in May though.

Edit: Oh, with Namco they’re just talking about Dokkan Battle. I guess that could have fallen enough that other rising titles didn’t counter it.
 

Deleted member 2793

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
15,368
Someone translated the an analyst article as “desperate and fervent” when apparently it was something more like “eager and adamant”, though I don’t think this difference is all that meaningful given they basically just meant “Capcom is aggressively trying to expand Monster Hunter overseas”.

There was then a giant war over this.

That said, it’s nit actually clear to me that the analysis here in general is correct since IIRC Square’s mobile revenue has actually went up this year. It’s just that their new titles have failed while their existing ones have grown, with Namco being in a similar situation. We’ll find out for certain in May though.
Well, isn't that what they mean by stagnating. SE tried many new IPs and almost everything underperformed. The money is staying with the top softwares - it's a service-based industry - and using IPs like FF and Dragon Quest is generating more revenue.
 

Eliseo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
573
Someone translated the an analyst article as “desperate and fervent” when apparently it was something more like “eager and adamant”, though I don’t think this difference is all that meaningful given they basically just meant “Capcom is aggressively trying to expand Monster Hunter overseas”.

There was then a giant war over this.

That said, it’s not actually clear to me that the analysis here in general is correct since IIRC Square’s mobile revenue has actually went up this year. It’s just that their new titles have failed while their existing ones have grown, with Namco being in a similar situation. We’ll find out for certain in May though.

Edit: Oh, with Namco they’re just talking about Dokkan Battle. I guess that could have fallen enough that other rising titles didn’t counter it.
Is SINoALICE part of SE or they are just publishing it.
 

Rainrir

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
1,337
Someone translated the an analyst article as “desperate and fervent” when apparently it was something more like “eager and adamant”, though I don’t think this difference is all that meaningful given they basically just meant “Capcom is aggressively trying to expand Monster Hunter overseas”.

There was then a giant war over this.

That said, it’s not actually clear to me that the analysis here in general is correct since IIRC Square’s mobile revenue has actually went up this year. It’s just that their new titles have failed while their existing ones have grown, with Namco being in a similar situation. We’ll find out for certain in May though.

Edit: Oh, with Namco they’re just talking about Dokkan Battle. I guess that could have fallen enough that other rising titles didn’t counter it.
Well, you are in luck because Yasuda made a whole article on mobile in Japan for April (the financial round ups were for March).

Which, I probably don't have the time to TL before I am gone. You can probably read Japanese so you can check it out (at least I think you can read Japanese from memory).

As with any analyst, he can be wrong, though I sure hope he don't make up his numbers, at least. IIRC, he said several companies (which isn't specific beyond SE and Bamco in the article I translated) had faced general contraction in the recent quarters, but he really only raised the specific example of SE and Bamco (and for Bamco just one game)...since KT, Capcom and N1 have barely any mobile game presence.

In this new article, he has more concrete examples of COLOPL, Konami, GREE etc.

The title of the article is "Is the mobile market in Japan retracing the steps of the Pachinko market?"
 
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sfortunato

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,998
Italy
Yeah I don't get it- its a videogame being sold in videogame stores and being advertised as a videogame (I believe it even had a feature in famitsu!)
Wii Fit was tracked, after all. All games with peripherals were---even something like Pokémon Tretta Lab.

It won’t. The previous DS/3DS games bombed too iirc.
Metal Max 3 did well, almost 100k units.

it's not that far from 4 tho. Series just has low appeal and that's even why they tried PS this time.
Yeah, the series has a pretty niche appeal.
 

Peace

Alt Account
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
978
France
  • Bamco is more than twice the size of SE in terms of revenue and profits.
  • Capcom is about half of SE's size in terms of profit and revenue.
It should be put in perspective to the "size" of each company.

Bandai Namco number of employees : 7 200 (2015)
Square-Enix number of employees : 4000 (2016)
Capcom number of employees : 2800 (2017)

Bandai Namco having twice SE revenue and profits isn't shocking when they have almost twice the number of employees for exemple. The opposite would have been more interesting.
 

Sphinx

Member
Nov 29, 2017
1,509
remember guys I asked some days ago whether LABO was going to be tracked?

yeah yeah, I knew it.

they think Labo is an interactive toy and not a videogame with an add-on
 
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