Media Create Sales: Week 15, 2018 (Apr 09 - Apr 15)

Peace · Apr 18, 2018

How many months before Kirby reach 1 million in jpn if it ever stays at 20k ? 30 months or something ? Weren't people being overly optimistic with this one ?

LordKano said:
And yeah, Worlds legs are not good. Might change with the Golden week though.

You're speaking about MHW, right ? Should the game not having legs matter that much at this point though ? The game is at 3 millions or something counting digital in jpn, it crushed every expectations with a palm strike to the chest and is at a ratio of ~50% of the total of PS4 install base in jpn. It's obvious the game not having leg isn't a problem, at all.

Izanagi89 · Apr 18, 2018

Dardan Sandiego said:
That was never gonna happen on PS4 in Japan.

Guess so, was just hoping for more. Game deserves much more.

Deleted member 2791 · Apr 18, 2018

Here's the reality of the situation so people will stop get into mindless debats for pages and pages :

- Yes, PS4 is suffering some stock issues.
- Yes, numbers would be higher without said stock issues.
- No, numbers wouldn't be massively higher even with proper stock.
- No, PS4's low numbers aren't entirely due to stock issues but also due to the usual pre-golden week drop and a bad software schedule for the rest of the year.
- Yes, PS4 numbers will go slightly higher once there's more stock, that and the usual golden week boost.
- No, it won't jump massively high once the stock is there because it was already not doing big numbers anyway.

Now we can move on.

Nocturnal · Apr 18, 2018

Code:

Week 15 2018:
Switch HW - 36.308(-9%)
Switch SW - 107.478(+8%)

Snack World - 35K(new)
Kirby - 23K(-33%)
Splatoon 2 - 18K(-14%)
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 12K(-10%)
The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 6K(-18%)
Super Mario Odyssey - 6K(-16%)

Code:

Week 15 2012:
3DS HW - 63.796(-11%)
3DS SW - 97.803(-33%)

Kingdom Hearts 3D - 20K(-50%)
Super Mario 3D Land - 18K(-18%)
Kid Icarus: Uprising - 15K(-41%)
Monster Hunter 3G - 15K(-10%)
Mario Kart 7 - 12K(-24%)
Mario & Sonic - 8K(-20%)

Code:

Week 16 2012:
3DS HW - 84.760(+32%)
3DS SW - 338.959(+246%)

Fire Emblem: Awakening - 242K(new)
Code of Princess - 19K(new)
Super Mario 3D Land - 14K(-20%)
Monster Hunter 3G - 13K(-13%)
Kingdom Hearts 3D - 12K(-39%)
Kid Icarus: Uprising - 10K(-28%)
Mario Kart 7 - 10K(-11%)

Overall a good week for Switch software sales due to the launch of Snack World despite hardware sales falling another 9% this week.
Next week should be interesting - in terms of both how much hardware Nintendo supply's and how much software Labo sales. I also expect with the potentially larger hardware supply certain games to see a boost pre-Golden Week, namely Kirby, Splatoon 2, MK8D - while for Snack World I expect a 50-65% drop WoW.
In terms of the 3DS it had FE:A launch in week 16 which ended up the 2nd best selling game launched on the 3DS during the first half of 2012.

Deleted member 37917 · Apr 18, 2018

skittzo0413 said:
The trackers reported that it was indeed supply constrained last week, but I don't think we have any explicit confirmation that it's still supply constrained this week, outside of it being unlikely that stock was resolved over just one week.

Ok thanks mate. All I can say is that this past weekend and the one before, you could casually walk in a big electronic store in shibuya and come out with a PS4, pro or slim. This is purely anecdotal again, but if there was a shortage, I wouldn't expect such central outlets to have any stock, that's all...

Principate · Apr 18, 2018

LordKano said:
Here's the reality of the situation so people will stop get into mindless debats for pages and pages :

- Yes, PS4 is suffering some stock issues.
- Yes, numbers would be higher without said stock issues.
- No, numbers wouldn't be massively higher even with proper stock.
- No, PS4's low numbers aren't entirely due to stock issues but also due to the usual pre-golden week drop and a bad software schedule for the rest of the year.
- Yes, PS4 numbers will go slightly higher once there's more stock, that and the usual golden week boost.
- No, it won't jump massively high once the stock is there because it was already not doing big numbers anyway.

Now we can move on.

You say this but I assue you this discussion will continue in at least a few more pages.

Pokémon · Apr 18, 2018

LordKano said:
Here's the reality of the situation so people will stop get into mindless debats for pages and pages :

- Yes, PS4 is suffering some stock issues.
- Yes, numbers would be higher without said stock issues.
- No, numbers wouldn't be massively higher even with proper stock.
- No, PS4's low numbers aren't entirely due to stock issues but also due to the usual pre-golden week drop and a bad software schedule for the rest of the year.
- Yes, PS4 numbers will go slightly higher once there's more stock, that and the usual golden week boost.
- No, it won't jump massively high once the stock is there because it was already not doing big numbers anyway.

Now we can move on.

Can we pin this post?

Deleted member 2793 · Apr 18, 2018

Peace said:
How many months before Kirby reach 1 million in jpn if it ever stays at 20k ? 30 months or something ? Weren't people being overly optimistic with this one ?

You're speaking about MHW, right ? Should the game not having legs matter that much at this point though ? The game is at 3 millions or something counting digital in jpn, it crushed every expectations with a palm strike to the chest and is at a ratio of ~50% of the total of PS4 install base in jpn. It's obvious the game not having leg isn't a problem, at all.

While performance is very very very good, it's not at 3M and I don't think these comparisons are ever fair ignoring the past entries digital numbers.

Pablo Mesa · Apr 18, 2018

Principate said:
You this but I assue you this discussion will continue in at least a few more pages.

it will continue till
A) PS4 still get low number but its confirmed there is no longer stock issues
or
B) PS4 outsells Switch

skullwaker · Apr 18, 2018

Peace said:
How many months before Kirby reach 1 million in jpn if it ever stays at 20k ? 30 months or something ? Weren't people being overly optimistic with this one ?

If it sold an average of 20k per week moving forward, it would take 30 weeks, not 30 months.

I predicted it would sell 1m LTD. Kirby games sell for years, which is something I considered. Define overly optimistic.

fiendcode · Apr 18, 2018

Thardin said:
If Sony can't get more than 10K units to Japan then that's pretty pathetic. Wasn't the Switch still hitting 20K during it's early production issues? Sony has been making these for 4 years and shouldn't be having shortages.

So you're saying Sony is competence constrained?

Gibordep · Apr 18, 2018

EarthPainting said:
About in line with that I expected from Snack World.

It's possible that they have reshuffled units around to beef up the western market's supply. There's nothing significant in the horizon for Japan, so a hypothetical reallocation could make perfect sense.

I've also seen some theories floating around that Japanese retailers might be suspecting a price drop, and want to keep their stock as low as possible. Not so sure about that though, because a price drop in Japan is going to make people anticipate one in other regions as well, and those regions will not have difficulty setting units thanks to the upcoming God of War.

Dont know if it will be a global/Continental/Country/Store thing but in Portugal there is a consistent rumor that at 20 April (GoW launch) both PS4 and PS4 Pro will have a 50 € price cut.

Deleted member 2791 · Apr 18, 2018

Peace said:
How many months before Kirby reach 1 million in jpn if it ever stays at 20k ? 30 months or something ? Weren't people being overly optimistic with this one ?

You're speaking about MHW, right ? Should the game not having legs matter that much at this point though ? The game is at 3 millions or something counting digital in jpn, it crushed every expectations with a palm strike to the chest and is at a ratio of ~50% of the total of PS4 install base in jpn. It's obvious the game not having leg isn't a problem, at all.

In the grand scheme or thing, no, it doesn't matter, it already overperformed at launch and in the western territories. Still worth point out that this sales pattern isn't reflected in the legs of that game.

srtrestre · Apr 18, 2018

KIRBY

Resetti · Apr 18, 2018

sinonobu said:
Seems like Labo will be out in TW/HK region on April 20th as well.

Tho it seems like Nintendo will Nintendo and not have software localized in neither Cantonese or Mandarin.

It's only been announced for Hong Kong

Notaskwid · Apr 18, 2018

Thardin said:
If Sony can't get more than 10K units to Japan then that's pretty pathetic. Wasn't the Switch still hitting 20K during it's early production issues? Sony has been making these for 4 years and shouldn't be having shortages.

I suppose that Sony is shipping all the units they can to places where people will actually buy it to play God of War.

Pokémon · Apr 18, 2018

skullwaker said:
If it sold an average of 20k per week moving forward, it would take 30 weeks, not 30 months.

I predicted it would sell 1m LTD. Kirby games sell for years, which is something I considered. Define overly optimistic.

Kirby will get a big boost during Holiday weeks since it's very popular with kids. I am not worried that it will reach the 1 M.

Zoantharia · Apr 18, 2018

Slow week

PS4 has to be having stock issues still, right...? Not being facetious, genuine question.

Jawbreaker · Apr 18, 2018

Phantom Thief said:
Without digital (since the earlier ones had no digital, and the ones after didn't have high digital attach rates). I'm just trying to see if the proportionate drops are comparable.

Here are a couple of games at roughly the same amount of time on the market, presented without context.

[3DS] Monster Hunter X # <ACT> (Capcom) {2015.11.28} (¥5.800) - 7.660 / 2.691.475 (-14%)
[3DS] Monster Hunter 4 Ultimate # <ACT> (Capcom) {2014.10.11} (¥6.264) - 12.318 / 2.440.373 (-21%)

hiska-kun · Apr 18, 2018

LordKano said:
Here's the reality of the situation so people will stop get into mindless debats for pages and pages :

- Yes, PS4 is suffering some stock issues.
- Yes, numbers would be higher without said stock issues.
- No, numbers wouldn't be massively higher even with proper stock.
- No, PS4's low numbers aren't entirely due to stock issues but also due to the usual pre-golden week drop and a bad software schedule for the rest of the year.
- Yes, PS4 numbers will go slightly higher once there's more stock, that and the usual golden week boost.
- No, it won't jump massively high once the stock is there because it was already not doing big numbers anyway.

Now we can move on.

Finally a message with sense.

Nocturnal · Apr 18, 2018

Kirby will surpass 500K by mid-May, even if it sells under 10K during rest of May, June and July it should be >600K by the time Obon rolls around. Personally I think it will hit 1M by the end of 2018, since it will get a bigger boost during Obon/December compared to what Zelda received in 2017.

Eolz · Apr 18, 2018

DarkDetective said:
97k FW

Thanks! So pretty good in the end.

v2_0 said:
Dat momentum.

Labo better be huge or things could become really ugly in Japan imo.

And why is that exactly?

Pablo Mesa · Apr 18, 2018

Notaskwid said:
I suppose that Sony is shipping all the units they can to places where people will actually buy it to play God of War.

she but this will imply they have shortage of stock ergo prioritize other zones, there is no reason for PS4 to have shortage of stock, 4-5 years out already in the market, and we have not heard of any specific part being short too like it was the Switch case

Umibozu · Apr 18, 2018

Poor opening for snack world.
Kirby, splatoon 2 and farcry 5 continuing to show legs.
Ninokuni 2 edging its way closer to 100k and monster hunter: world broke past 2 million.

Both consoles continuing to decline.
I had spoken in private that ps4 might eventually be sub 10k by the summer but we might see that sooner than I initially thought. Hopefully it's more that they are getting ready for a new retail variant or are getting ready to lower the price and are trying to clear retail channels first.

Overall another uneventful week.

Comic Obsessed · Apr 18, 2018

Was expecting more from Snack World considering predictions. Hope that Labo makes thing more exciting for Switch hardware.

Deleted member 249 · Apr 18, 2018

Jawbreaker said:
Here are a couple of games at roughly the same amount of time on the market, presented without context.

[3DS] Monster Hunter X # <ACT> (Capcom) {2015.11.28} (¥5.800) - 7.660 / 2.691.475 (-14%)
[3DS] Monster Hunter 4 Ultimate # <ACT> (Capcom) {2014.10.11} (¥6.264) - 12.318 / 2.440.373 (-21%)

Thanks. Best I can tell, World seems to be doing fine? A fair bit lower than X and 4U (but to counter that, if I am not wrong, it is believed that ~1 million units were sold digitally, right?). I don't understand why there is the sentiment its legs are not that impressive (but I may just be lacking context).

Ryng™ · Apr 18, 2018

Jawbreaker said:
Here are a couple of games at roughly the same amount of time on the market, presented without context.

[3DS] Monster Hunter X # <ACT> (Capcom) {2015.11.28} (¥5.800) - 7.660 / 2.691.475 (-14%)
[3DS] Monster Hunter 4 Ultimate # <ACT> (Capcom) {2014.10.11} (¥6.264) - 12.318 / 2.440.373 (-21%)

That's extremely good for Monster Hunter World. The game did very good compared to those 3DS versions. Must be close to 3 million with digital.

FireFistAce · Apr 18, 2018

See, I told you that Sony doesn't care about Japan.

MysticGon · Apr 18, 2018

If the 80% sell-through for Snack World is accurate week 2 should be good if Level-5 and Nintendo can keep the shelves stocked up. Anime still has 2 more weeks left so after the finale there might be some kids wanting to get the game. We'll see.

2 PS4 games the only games to see bumps.

Switch hold is good.

Kolx · Apr 18, 2018

FireFistAce said:
See, I told you that Sony doesn't care about Japan.

More like Japan don't care about home consoles anymore.

v2_0 · Apr 18, 2018

Eolz said:
Thanks! So pretty good in the end.

And why is that exactly?

Except for specific circumstances, like price cuts or new models incoming, 59k for overall hardware sales must be among all-time lows, doesn't it? Labo is the only software I can see having any strong impact on hardware sales for a looong time so if it bombs...

konoka · Apr 18, 2018

Gibordep said:
Dont know if it will be a global/Continental/Country/Store thing but in Portugal there is a consistent rumor that at 20 April (GoW launch) both PS4 and PS4 Pro will have a 50 € price cut.

Next 16 hours is the deadline for the theorem "artificial shortage before price down".

FireFistAce · Apr 18, 2018

Kolx said:
More like Japan don't care about home consoles anymore.

Yes but also Sony doesn't care. They would have at least dropped the price if they did.

Nocturnal · Apr 18, 2018

Top Selling Games M-C 2018:

1) Monster Hunter: World(Capcom) - 2.003.054
2) Splatoon 2(Nintendo) - 467.435
3) Kirby Star Allies(Nintendo) - 416.108
4) Mario Kart 8 Deluxe(Nintendo)- 340.457
5) Super Mario Odyssey(Nintendo) - 293.699
6) Pokemon Ultra Sun / Ultra Moon(Pokemon Co.) - 207.249
7) The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild(Nintendo) - 183.382
8) Like the North Star(Sega) - 163.636
9) Mario + Rabbids: Kingdom Battle(Ubisoft) - 163.605
10) Dynasty Warriors 9(Koei Tecmo) - 156.737

CeroMiedo · Apr 18, 2018

Kolx said:
More like Japan don't care about home consoles anymore.

they do,if the console is appealing to them

Kolx · Apr 18, 2018

Pablo Mesa said:
there is no reason for PS4 to have shortage of stock, 4-5 years out already in the market,

Sure, if you ignore the fact the biggest exclusive for Sony this year is coming out in a couple of days. And the ps4 was out of stock multiple times during times where it was in high demand.

Pablo Mesa said:
and we have not heard of any specific part being short too like it was the Switch case

GoW isn't released yet tho. Unless you have a better explanation on why Sony isn't sending more PS4s to Japan, Other than Sony stocking PS4s in warehouses for no reason? The production has to go somewhere and unless Sony decided to just cut production of PS4 just before the release of GoW it's safe to assume other territories are being prioritized over Japan right now.

CeroMiedo said:
they do,if the console is appealing to them

Like? The PS4 had every large third party in Japan released on it (DQ, FF, MH) and yet didn't explode.

FireFistAce said:
Yes but also Sony doesn't care. They would have at least dropped the price if they did.

True, but it's probably better to sell it at its current price than to lose 50$ or a 100$ from every unit and gain a temporally surge that is going to die down quickly.

cw_sasuke · Apr 18, 2018

Nocturnal said:
Top Selling Games M-C 2018:

1) Monster Hunter: World(Capcom) - 2.003.054
2) Splatoon 2(Nintendo) - 467.435
3) Kirby Star Allies(Nintendo) - 416.108
4) Mario Kart 8 Deluxe(Nintendo)- 340.457
5) Super Mario Odyssey(Nintendo) - 293.699
6) Pokemon Ultra Sun / Ultra Moon(Pokemon Co.) - 207.249
7) The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild(Nintendo) - 183.382
8) Like the North Star(Sega) - 163.636
9) Mario + Rabbids: Kingdom Battle(Ubisoft) - 163.605
10) Dynasty Warriors 9(Koei Tecmo) - 156.737

Yeah - outside of MHW alot of PS4 games have been somewhat underperforming.
Sony probably hoped for a scenario where MHW would push the whole eco system, not that all other titles suffer because of it...

Dee Dee · Apr 18, 2018

LordKano said:
Steins;Gate 0 is back thanks to the anime now airing.

That answers my question before I even post it, nice.

Shizuka said:
Don't fall for the anime, people! It's a bad game!

Phew, I thought it was just me! It took forever to get going (and the first Steins;Gate already is "gets good 8 hours in territory" to boot with), and then was like: lol, now play everything again.
I'm not mad, it's just not a very fun VN, and I say that as someone who really liked Steins;Gate.

sinonobu said:
Eh I thought it was alright. Features the best Steins;Gate character as well.

Is she... wearing a shoe made out of cheese? What am I looking at here?

Thardin · Apr 18, 2018

Pablo Mesa said:
she but this will imply they have shortage of stock ergo prioritize other zones, there is no reason for PS4 to have shortage of stock, 4-5 years out already in the market, and we have not heard of any specific part being short too like it was the Switch case

Yeah, not sure why they're not able to ship more units to places for GoW and still ship enough to Japan. I guess Sony is shipping what they expect to sell in Japan.

Franco_Tech · Apr 18, 2018

Kouriozan said:
Poor PS4, what the hell is Sony doing.

Sending their shipment to the west because they are selling better than the other consoles.

CeroMiedo · Apr 18, 2018

Kolx said:
Like? The PS4 had every large third party in Japan released on it (DQ, FF, MH) and yet didn't explode.

then it's the softwares that are appealing to them,not the console

Paradox House · Apr 18, 2018

Everything low but wtf at PS4? PS3 was trucking those numbers 7 years in!

Pablo Mesa · Apr 18, 2018

Kolx said:
Sure, if you ignore the fact the biggest exclusive for Sony this year is coming out in a couple of days. And the ps4 was out of stock multiple times during times where it was in high demand.

GoW isn't released yet tho. Unless you have a better explanation on why Sony isn't sending more PS4s to Japan, Other than Sony stocking PS4s in warehouses for no reason? The production has to go somewhere and unless Sony decided to just cut production of PS4 just before the release of GoW it's safe to assume other territories are being prioritized over Japan right now.

Like? The PS4 had every large third party in Japan released on it (DQ, FF, MH) and yet didn't explode.

True, but it's probably better to sell it at its current price than to lose 50$ or a 100$ from every unit and gain a temporally surge that is going to die down quickly.

there is no reason to believe they are prioritizing other regions except Sony not giving a damn about Japan given we have not hear other regions having stock issues, its been 4 years worth of manufacturing and building stock + almost 1 month since 1st started to circulate news/ reports of the stock issues. so sony had time to ships a new batch

Franco_Tech · Apr 18, 2018

Izanagi89 said:
Urgh.....was really hoping NNK2 would do better as the weeks go on

The first one did not do better either at least in Japan the west saved the first one. I hope this one as well.

Deleted member 2793 · Apr 18, 2018

Phantom Thief said:
Thanks. Best I can tell, World seems to be doing fine? A fair bit lower than X and 4U (but to counter that, if I am not wrong, it is believed that ~1 million units were sold digitally, right?). I don't understand why there is the sentiment its legs are not that impressive (but I may just be lacking context).

Drop is bigger than any other first entry for a MonHun gen. It won't get close to Portable 3rd or 4 sales. Which isn't really a problem considering global growth. Legs are small for a MonHun game in Japan, but decent considering it's a PS4 game (not a very popular system).

cw_sasuke · Apr 18, 2018

Franco_Tech said:
Sending their shipment to the west because they are selling better than the other consoles.

Im sure those extra 5k per week in Japan they are missing are making a difference in the west xD

Principate · Apr 18, 2018

Franco_Tech said:
The first one did not do better either at least in Japan the west saved the first one. I hope this one as well.

The Jury's out on that on intial reports from UK and US aren't great...

Deleted member 24550 · Apr 18, 2018

Well at least Switch surpassed PS4 for a modicum of excitement. Slowest week of the year? I don't think it's stock shortages either now that the ratio of PS4:Pro is back to a big advantage for the regular PS4.

Next week should be good though. Very interesting what will happen.

Franco_Tech · Apr 18, 2018

cw_sasuke said:
Im sure those extra 5k per week in Japan they are missing are making a difference in the west xD

Yes sure the more sales the better for profit and support and for us better games.

Principate · Apr 18, 2018

cw_sasuke said:
Im sure those extra 5k per week in Japan they are missing are making a difference in the west xD

Yeah it's not a lack of global shipments issue. It's at best a Japanese forcast issue that they undershipped based and should rectify soon. Though it's taking them a long time to do so.

Media Create Sales: Week 15, 2018 (Apr 09 - Apr 15)

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