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Principate

Member
Oct 31, 2017
11,186
From the few cases we have as well the censored PS4 versions have outsold the uncensored Switch versions. In the future games will be censored by default.

It's a waste of money to make two versions.
Pretty much, Sony are uniquely placed in actually getting what they want regarding this. They can get far more aggressive than they currently are and face little to no blow back for it.
 

Asuka3+1

Alt Account
Banned
Feb 6, 2019
491
They're not happy but there's been no evidence of anything's actually happening. The Senran kagura game for example didn't move to switch after it ended up in no man's land as a result of the guidelines. They straight up switched to another project. By large most publishers are just erring on the side of caution regarding releases rather than doing anything drastic which makes little sense in the first place.
they might not be happy, but they're stuck inbetween a rock and a hard place. they'd have to begrudgingly support the system if they want to make ends meet
we are talking about JApan only, on Japan they can always shift to Switch or PC. saying that they are not gonna ditch PS there (even when the brand just keep shrinking) seems rather plausible to me. specially if it does increases their costs and dev cycle times.
 

Principate

Member
Oct 31, 2017
11,186
we are talking about JApan only, on Japan they can always shift to Switch or PC. saying that they are not gonna ditch PS there (even when the brand just keep shrinking) seems rather plausible to me. specially if it does increases their costs and dev cycle times.
PC isn't exactly known to be a big user base in Japan. It's why Japanese publishers were so apprehensive about supporting it in the first place. Ditch PS and you may as well ditch half your user base in Japan.
 

Asuka3+1

Alt Account
Banned
Feb 6, 2019
491
PC isn't exactly known to be a big user base in Japan. It's why Japanese publishers were so apprehensive about supporting it in the first place. Ditch PS and you may as well ditch half your user base in Japan.
is likely not gonna happen one day to another but is not gonna earn em cookie points either, specially if the PS sales keep shrinking.
 

ILikeFeet

DF Deet Master
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
61,987
we are talking about JApan only, on Japan they can always shift to Switch or PC. saying that they are not gonna ditch PS there (even when the brand just keep shrinking) seems rather plausible to me. specially if it does increases their costs and dev cycle times.
PC is a non-starter. moving to switch should happen regardless of the Sony issue. but there's also the question of the international market should they choose to jump into that. and there's no reason to hedge their bets on PC/Switch only when they can cast a wide net. unless their games hinge on kiddie tiddies, the sales can, potentially, make up for the work necessary*.

*and if not, kiddie tiddies wouldn't have helped anyway
 

Rob2K19

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,646
You know why I'm here.

Tensaiya Nomura​

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giphy.gif

Tracker said:
18./16. [PS4] Kingdom Hearts III (Square Enix) {2019.01.25} - 2,433 / 735,441

Superior Tracker said:
17./15. [PS4] Kingdom Hearts III # <RPG> (Square Enix) {2019.01.25} (¥8.800) - 2.656 / 816.265 <80-100%> (-30%)

1.5+2.5 fell off the charts. Now it is just KH3. The post has gotten so small now.
 

hiska-kun

Member
Oct 26, 2017
3,410
Tsutaya Ranking: Week 16, 2019 (15 Apr - 21 Apr)

01./01. [PS4] Earth Defense Force: Iron Rain <ACT> (D3Publisher) {2019.04.11} (¥7.800)
02./02. [PS4] Sekiro: Shadows Die Twice <ADV> (From Software) {2019.03.22} (¥7.600)
03./06. [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate <FTG> (Nintendo) {2018.12.07} (¥7.200)
04./03. [NSW] Super Dragon Ball Heroes: World Mission <TBL> (Bandai Namco Games) {2019.04.04} (¥6.800)
05./05. [NSW] Yoshi's Crafted World <ACT> (Nintendo) {2019.03.29} (¥5.980)
06./07. [NSW] Minecraft <ADV> (Microsoft Game Studios) {2018.06.21} (¥3.600)
07./04. [NSW] Final Fantasy X/X-2 HD Remaster <RPG> (Square Enix) {2019.04.11} (¥6.800)
08./08. [NSW] New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe <ACT> (Nintendo) {2019.01.11} (¥5.980)
09./13. [NSW] Splatoon 2 <ACT> (Nintendo) {2017.07.21} (¥5.980)
10./11. [PS4] Tom Clancy's The Division 2 <RPG> (Ubisoft) {2019.03.15} (¥8.400)
12./12. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe <RCE> (Nintendo) {2017.04.28} (¥5.980)
12./15. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild <ADV> (Nintendo) {2017.03.03} (¥6.980)
13./19. [PS4] Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six: Siege - Deluxe Edition <ACT> (Ubisoft) {2019.04.11} (¥3.600)
14./14. [NSW] Super Mario Party <ETC> (Nintendo) {2018.10.05} (¥5.980)
15./00. [PS4] Langrisser I & II # <SLG> (Kadokawa Games) {2019.04.18} (¥6.800)
16./17. [PS4] Devil May Cry 5 <ACT> (Capcom) {2019.03.08} (¥6.990)
17./16. [PS4] Chocobo's Mystery Dungeon: Every Buddy! <RPG> (Square Enix) {2019.03.20} (¥4.800)
18./09. [NSW] Nintendo Labo Toy-Con 04: VR Kit (Starter Kit) <EDU> (Nintendo) {2019.04.12} (¥3.980)
19./10. [NSW] Nintendo Labo Toy-Con 04: VR Kit <EDU> (Nintendo) {2019.04.12} (¥7.980)
20./00. [NSW] Langrisser I & II # <SLG> (Kadokawa Games) {2019.04.18} (¥6.800)

Top 20

NSW - 13
PS4 - 7
 
OP
OP
Chris1964

Chris1964

SalesEra Genius
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,155
GEO stores: Week 16, 2019 (15 Apr - 21 Apr)

01./01. [PS4] Earth Defense Force: Iron Rain <ACT> (D3Publisher) {2019.04.11} (¥7.800)
02./02. [PS4] Sekiro: Shadows Die Twice <ADV> (From Software) {2019.03.22} (¥7.600)
03./05. [NSW] Super Dragon Ball Heroes: World Mission <TBL> (Bandai Namco Games) {2019.04.04} (¥6.800)
04./03. [NSW] Final Fantasy X/X-2 HD Remaster <RPG> (Square Enix) {2019.04.11} (¥6.800)
05./06. [NSW] Yoshi's Crafted World <ACT> (Nintendo) {2019.03.29} (¥5.980)
06./08. [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate <FTG> (Nintendo) {2018.12.07} (¥7.200)
07./00. [PS4] Langrisser I & II # <SLG> (Kadokawa Games) {2019.04.18} (¥6.800)
08./10. [NSW] Minecraft <ADV> (Microsoft Game Studios) {2018.06.21} (¥3.600)
09./09. [PS4] Kingdom Hearts III # <RPG> (Square Enix) {2019.01.25} (¥8.800)
10./00. [NSW] Langrisser I & II # <SLG> (Kadokawa Games) {2019.04.18} (¥6.800)

Top 10

NSW - 6
PS4 - 4

"Earth Defense Force: Iron Rain ranked 1st for two consecutive weeks. It was a week when there were few new releases, but PS4 version of Langrisser I & II ranked 7th and Switch version 10th. 3rd place went to Super Dragon Ball Heroes: World Mission and 4th to Final Fantasy X/X-2 HD Remaster. These two titles maintain high sales and can be expected to sell in Golden Week period."
 
OP
OP
Chris1964

Chris1964

SalesEra Genius
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,155
Uneventful week, the only interesting to watch will be Switch and Smash sales.
 

DarkDetective

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
4,906
The Netherlands
June 27 - Puyo Puyo eSports (SEGA) - digitally available since 2018-10-25
July 24 - Olympic Games Tokyo 2020 - The Official Video Game (SEGA)
August 29 - Raspberry Cube (iMel)

*Marvel Ultimate Alliance 3: Black Order will be released in Japan this Summer, but an exact release date has not been confirmed yet (it's releasing in the west on July 19).

SWITCH: PHYSICAL GAMES

2019 (93 games)

JANUARY (8 games)
January 11 - New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe (Nintendo)
January 11 - Tales of Vesperia: Definitive Edition (Bandai Namco)
January 31 - Dragon Marked For Death (Inti Creates)
January 31 - Fate/EXTELLA LINK (Marvelous)
January 31 - Nelke & the Legendary Alchemists: Ateliers of the New World (Koei Temco)
January 31 - OPUS Collection (Flyhigh Works)
January 31 - ROBOTICS;NOTES DaSH (5pb.)
January 31 - Stardew Valley Collector's Edition (Oizumi Amuzio)

FEBRUARY (15 games)
February 07 - Blazblue Central Fiction Special Edition (Arc System Works)
February 14 - Kin'iro no Corda: Octave (Koei Tecmo)
February 14 - Nobunaga's Ambition: Taishi with Power-Up Kit (Koei Tecmo)
February 14 - Victor Vran Overkill Edition (3goo)
February 21 - Girls und Panzer: Dream Team Match DX (Bandai Namco)
February 21 - Gyakuten Saiban 123: Naruhodo Selection (Capcom)
February 28 - Darius: Cozmic Collection (Taito)
February 28 - Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of the Moon Exploration (FuRyu)
February 28 - Judgement 7: Our World is Ended (5pb.)
February 28 - My Girlfriend is a Mermaid!? (Cosen)
February 28 - Nora to Oujo to Noraneko Heart 2 (Piacci)
February 28 - Trials Rising (Ubisoft)
February 28 - Wizard's Symphony (Arc System Works)
February 28 - Yunohana SpRING! Mellow Times for Nintendo Switch (Idea Factory)
February 28 - Zoids Wild: King of Blast (Takara Tomy)

MARCH (17 games)
March 14 - Blade Arcus Rebellion from Shining (SEGA)
March 14 - Caligula Overdose (FuRyu)
March 14 - DESTINY CONNECT (Nippon Ichi Software)
March 14 - Harukanaru Toki no Naka de 6 DX (Koei Tecmo)
March 14 - Kono Yo no Hate de Koi wo Utau Shoujo YU-NO (5pb.)
March 14 - Samurai Warriors 4 DX (Koei Tecmo)
March 20 - Atelier Lulua: The Alchemist of Arland 4 (Koei Tecmo)
March 20 - Chocobo's Mystery Dungeon: Every Buddy! (Square Enix)
March 20 - Dead or Alive Xtreme 3: Scarlet (Koei Temco)
March 20 - Steins;Gate: Divergencies Assort (5pb.)
March 20 - Super Robot Taisen T (Bandai Namco)
March 28 - Diabolik Lovers: Chaos Lineage (Idea Factory)
March 28 - Memories Off: Innocent File for Dearest (5pb.)
March 28 - RemiLore (Pikii)
March 28 - The LEGO Movie 2 Videogame (WB Games)
March 28 - Winning Post 9 (Koei Tecmo)
March 29 - Yoshi's Crafted World (Nintendo)

APRIL (18 games)
April 04 - Super Dragon Ball Heroes: World Mission (Bandai Namco)
April 11 - Final Fantasy X/X-2 HD Remaster (Square Enix)
April 11 - THE Taikan! Sports Pack (D3 Publisher)
April 11 - THE Variety Game Daishuugou (D3 Publisher)
April 11 - V-Rally 4 (Oizumi Amuzio)
April 12 - Nintendo Labo Toy-Con 04: VR Kit (Nintendo)
April 18 - Langrisser I & II (Kadokawa Games)
April 18 - Taishou x Alice: All in One (Prototype)
April 25 - Cytus Alpha (Flyhigh Works)
April 25 - Dragon's Dogma: Dark Arisen (Capcom)
April 25 - Final Fantasy XII: The Zodiac Age (Square Enix)
April 25 - Murder Detective Jack the Ripper (Nippon Ichi Software)
April 25 - Piczle Puzzle Pack 3-in-1 (Rainy Frog)
April 25 - Project Highrise: Architect Edition (H2 Interactive)
April 25 - Reine des Fleurs for Nintendo Switch (Idea Factory)
April 25 - Starlink: Battle for Atlas (Ubisoft)
April 25 - Sword Art Online: Hollow Realization Deluxe Edition (Bandai Namco)
April 25 - Umihara Kawase Fresh! (Success)

MAY (10 games)
May 16 - Guilty Gear 20th Anniversary Pack (Arc System Works)
May 16 - Hanayaka Kana, Wa ga Ichizoku: Modern Nostalgie for Nintendo Switch (Idea Factory)
May 16 - RollerCoaster Tycoon Adventures (Oizumi Amuzio)
May 21 - Team Sonic Racing (SEGA)
May 23 - Assassin's Creed III Remastered (Ubisoft)
May 23 - Minna no Doubutsu Shogi (SilverStar Japan)
May 23 - Private Bellbara Academy: Rose of Versailles Re*imagination (Idea Factory)
May 23 - Resident Evil: Origins Collection (Capcom)
May 30 - Moujuutsukai to Ouji-sama: Flower & Snow for Nintendo Switch (Idea Factory)
May 30 - VA-11 Hall-A (Playism)

JUNE (10 games)
June 06 - Youkai Watch 4: Bokura wa Onaji Sora wo Miageteiru (Level-5)
June 13 - Doraemon: Nobita no Bokujou Monogatari (Doraemon x Story of Seasons) (Bandai Namco Entertainment)
June 20 - Hanayaka Kana, Wa ga Ichizoku: Gentou Nostalgie for Nintendo Switch (Idea Factory)
June 20 - Summer Pockets (Prototype)
June 27 - Clock Zero: Shuuen no Ichibyou Devote (Idea Factory)
June 27 - Jikkyou Powerful Pro Yakyuu (Konami)
June 27 - La-Mulana 2 (Active Gaming Media)
June 27 - Puyo Puyo eSports (SEGA) - digitally available since 2018-10-25
June 27 - To All Of Mankind (Nippon Ichi Software)
TBA - Super Mario Maker (Nintendo)

JULY (11 games)
July 04 - Attack on Titan 2: Final Battle (Koei Tecmo)
July 04 - Clannad (Prototype)
July 11 - God Eater 3 (Bandai Namco Entertainment)
July 11 - Puru-Chara Friends: Hoppe-chan to Sanrio Characters (Neos)
July 18 - Tlicolity Eyes: Twinkle Showtime (Idea Factory)
July 18 - Touhou Genso Wanderer: Lotus Labyrinth (Unties)
July 24 - Olympic Games Tokyo 2020 - The Official Video Game (SEGA)
July 25 - AI: The Somnium Files (Spike Chunsoft)
July 25 - Kill la Kill: IF (Arc System Works)
July 25 - Rune Factory 4 Special (Marvelous)
July 26 - Fire Emblem: Three Houses (Nintendo)

AUGUST (3 games)
August 22 - Katakoi Contrast: Collection of Branch (Idea Factory)
August 29 - Raspberry Cube (iMel)
August 30 - Astral Chain (Nintendo)

SEPTEMBER (1 games)
September 19 - Jakou no Lyla: Trap of Musk (Idea Factory)

OCTOBER (0 games)

NOVEMBER (0 games)

DECEMBER (0 games)



Announced but not dated yet (may not be complete)

SPRING WINDOW
Spring 2019 - Ninjala (GungHo Online Entertainment)

SUMMER WINDOW
Summer 2019 - Daimon x Machina (Nintendo)
Summer 2019 - Marvel Ultimate Alliance 3: The Black Order (Nintendo)
Summer 2019 - PixArk (Spike Chunsoft)
Summer 2019 - Sword Art Online: Fatal Bullet Complete Edition (Bandai Namco Entertainment)

FALL WINDOW
Fall 2019 - Cardfight!! Vanguard EX (FuRyu)
Fall 2019 - Dragon Quest XI S: Echoes of an Elusive Age (Square Enix)
Fall 2019 - Pokémon Sword / Shield (The Pokémon Company)
Fall 2019 - The Alliance Alive HD Remaster (FuRyu)

WINTER WINDOW
Winter 2019 - Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games Tokyo 2020 (SEGA)
Winter 2019 - Samurai Shodown (SNK)

TBA 2019 WINDOW
TBA 2019 - Animal Crossing (tentative title) (Nintendo)
TBA 2019 - Digimon Survive (Bandai Namco Entertainment)
TBA 2019 - Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles Remastered (Square Enix)
TBA 2019 - Gensou Kissa Enchante (Idea Factory)
TBA 2019 - Inazuma Eleven: Ares no Tenbin (Level-5)
TBA 2019 - Luigi's Mansion 3 (tentative title) (Nintendo)
TBA 2019 - Omega Labyrinth Life (D3 Publisher)
TBA 2019 - Romancing SaGa 3 (Square Enix)
TBA 2019 - SD Gundam Generation Cross Rays (Bandai Namco Entertainment)
TBA 2019 - The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening (Nintendo)

TBA 2020 WINDOW
TBA 2020 - N1RV Ann-A (Playism)
TBA 2020 - Rune Factory 5 (Marvelous)
TBA 2020 - Shironeko New Project (tentative title) (Colopl)

TBA WINDOW
TBA - Amnesia for Nintendo Switch (Idea Factory)
TBA - Anonymous;Code (5pb.)
TBA - Bayonetta 3 (Nintendo)
TBA - Birushanah Senki: Genpeiden (Idea Factory)
TBA - Derby Stallion (tentative title) (Kadokawa Games)
TBA - Hakuoki Shinkai: Gekikage no Shou / Ginsei no Shou (Idea Factory)
TBA - Hyper Sports R (Konami)
TBA - LoverPretend (Idea Factory)
TBA - Mary Skelter 2 (Compile Heart)
TBA - Metroid Prime 4 (Nintendo)
TBA - Nil Admirari no Tenbin: Olympia Soiree (Idea Factory)
TBA - Ninja Box (Bandai Namco Entertainment)
TBA - Piofiore no Banchou: Ricordo (Idea Factory)
TBA - Sengoku Night Blood (Idea Factory)
TBA - Shin Megami Tensei V (Atlus)
TBA - Ushiro (Level-5)
 

Lite_Agent

Member
Oct 26, 2017
4,572
Somewhere. I think.
Broccoli have announced that Jack Jeanne, collab. project with Sui Ishida (Tokyo Ghoul creator), is a Switch game. Their very first Switch game, only notable Otoge publisher still missing iirc.

Out in 2020.

 

unfashionable

Member
Oct 29, 2017
2,072
Fire Emblem: Three Houses news in Famitsu this week. About 3 months left until release, timing is just right.



What kind of expectations are there for this game? I always thought of it as a niche franchise being a strategy RPG, but then again I dont play mobile games and mobile FE makes huge money so I have no idea what expectations are. I do know the game looks so good it'll be the first FE game I buy.
 

ILikeFeet

DF Deet Master
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
61,987
What kind of expectations are there for this game? I always thought of it as a niche franchise being a strategy RPG, but then again I dont play mobile games and mobile FE makes huge money so I have no idea what expectations are. I do know the game looks so good it'll be the first FE game I buy.
It used to be niche, but then Awakening happened. Since then, it's been bigger than it ever has been
 

Wander_

Banned
Feb 26, 2018
5,552
What kind of expectations are there for this game? I always thought of it as a niche franchise being a strategy RPG, but then again I dont play mobile games and mobile FE makes huge money so I have no idea what expectations are. I do know the game looks so good it'll be the first FE game I buy.

hype for this game seems low honestly. to me It looks unappealing compared to Awakening.
 

Piston

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,155
What kind of expectations are there for this game? I always thought of it as a niche franchise being a strategy RPG, but then again I dont play mobile games and mobile FE makes huge money so I have no idea what expectations are. I do know the game looks so good it'll be the first FE game I buy.
It will sell well but it is still a B-tier franchise on consoles for Nintendo. I think that means 2+ million WW, 500k in JP. It *could* get the Switch bump, especially in the West.
 

Andri

Member
Mar 20, 2018
6,017
Switzerland
What kind of expectations are there for this game? I always thought of it as a niche franchise being a strategy RPG, but then again I dont play mobile games and mobile FE makes huge money so I have no idea what expectations are. I do know the game looks so good it'll be the first FE game I buy.

The series used to sell very much not good, then Awakening made it a smash hit with over 2m sales, followed by fates which did about the same.

In japan Fates and Awakening sold about 500k each, with the NDS/GBA titles averaging around 250k.
The much praised GC/Wii titles were probably commercial failures, being made for higher demand systems and selling around 150k in Japan for example.

I would say for this one an opening of around 150k is reasonable since it will be much more expensive than the 3DS entries.
Legs will probably be better than 3DS titles since Switch userbase will grow for a long time.
 

Alandring

Banned
Feb 2, 2018
1,841
Switzerland
The series used to sell very much not good, then Awakening made it a smash hit with over 2m sales, followed by fates which did about the same.

In japan Fates and Awakening sold about 500k each, with the NDS/GBA titles averaging around 250k.
The much praised GC/Wii titles were probably commercial failures, being made for higher demand systems and selling around 150k in Japan for example.

I would say for this one an opening of around 150k is reasonable since it will be much more expensive than the 3DS entries.
Legs will probably be better than 3DS titles since Switch userbase will grow for a long time.
Every Switch game did better than previous entries, so less than 300k for Three Houses in first week would be disappointing.
 

nenned

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,099
What ever happened to Gungho's Ninjala? Wasn't it given a vague "Spring 2019" release date? Has it been quietly delayed?
 

Andri

Member
Mar 20, 2018
6,017
Switzerland
Every Switch game did better than previous entries, so less than 300k for Three Houses in first week would be disappointing.

If you think that is actually a reasonable bar for first week sales, i guess prepare to be dissapointed.

So far there have been 4 games that sold 300k or more first week.
Odyssey, Smash,Pokemon and Splatoon.
All franchises way bigger than Fire Emblem.

Even MK8DX sold less than 300k and that is the third best selling game for switch in japan.
 

Arynio

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,235
If you think that is actually a reasonable bar for first week sales, i guess prepare to be dissapointed.

So far there have been 4 games that sold 300k or more first week.
Odyssey, Smash,Pokemon and Splatoon.
All franchises way bigger than Fire Emblem.

Even MK8DX sold less than 300k and that is the third best selling game for switch in japan.

That's a faulty comparison considering i) how limited the userbase was back then, and ii) MK8DX is a port, so its sales are less frontloaded. I agree with the rest, though. A 300k debut for FE is not guaranteed at this point in time. We'll see as the launch date approaches.
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
Fire Emblem sales on 3DS:

Code:
3DS    Fire Emblem Fates: Birthright / Conquest    353.201    581.905    Nintendo    25/06/2015
3DS    Fire Emblem: Awakening    262.399    484.521    Nintendo    19/04/2012

Three Houses should do 300k or more at least, otherwise it would be a disappointing debut imo. The franchise should not be dropping that far below Fates, that would be a bad performance to me. Preferably, it would do better than Fates and debut close to 400k, but at least 300k should be the floor for a good performance imo.

If you think that is actually a reasonable bar for first week sales, i guess prepare to be dissapointed.

So far there have been 4 games that sold 300k or more first week.
Odyssey, Smash,Pokemon and Splatoon.
All franchises way bigger than Fire Emblem.

Even MK8DX sold less than 300k and that is the third best selling game for switch in japan.
Pokémon is huge, and Let's Go's debut was actually very poor for the franchise. Smash was huge, and Odyssey did really well, too, especially compared to other entries in its franchise. Same for Zelda. Those franchises are indeed bigger than Fire Emblem, but using that to inform first week performance is ill-advised since the games' sales trajectories are completely different: Fire Emblem sells about half of its lifetime sales in its first week, while these other games multiply their debut sales many times over (exception being Pokémon - which underperformed - and Smash - which sold a whopping 1.2M first week, a far cry from the proposed 300k). As laid out above, comparison with other entries in the franchise would put a good debut at 300k+, preferably closer to (or above) 400k. And we should compare to past franchise entries, not to Mario Kart.
 
Last edited:

Myriotes

Member
Jan 30, 2018
532
Germany
The series used to sell very much not good, then Awakening made it a smash hit with over 2m sales, followed by fates which did about the same.

In japan Fates and Awakening sold about 500k each, with the NDS/GBA titles averaging around 250k.
The much praised GC/Wii titles were probably commercial failures, being made for higher demand systems and selling around 150k in Japan for example.

I would say for this one an opening of around 150k is reasonable since it will be much more expensive than the 3DS entries.
Legs will probably be better than 3DS titles since Switch userbase will grow for a long time.

I would love to have Path of Radiance and Radiant Dawn remastered for the Switch, maybe late in the cycle. Still my favorite FE games.
 

sfortunato

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,739
Italy
I think Fire Emblem will do worser than Fates but on par with Awakening.

It will do way better than both of them in Western countries, though.
 

Fisico

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,106
Paris
Fire Emblem sales on 3DS:
Code:
3DS    Fire Emblem Fates: Birthright / Conquest    353.201    581.905    Nintendo    25/06/2015
3DS    Fire Emblem: Awakening    262.399    484.521    Nintendo    19/04/2012

To give some perspective
3DS install base at Awakening's launch : 5.7M
3DS install base at Fates' launch : 18.7M

Expected Switch install base at Three Houses' launch : ~8.5M
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
To give some perspective
3DS install base at Awakening's launch : 5.7M
3DS install base at Fates' launch : 18.7M

Expected Switch install base at Three Houses' launch : ~8.5M
Well, sure, but Switch has shown on several occasions (for example with Smash and Kirby) that it can debut like a 3DS game or better despite a vastly smaller install base. Install base doesn't seem to be a big enough limiting factor to preclude debuts above 3DS equivalent games.
 
Oct 26, 2017
20,440
We know almost nothing about Fire Emblem Three Houses other than the graphics not being very good so I'm not sure how to project it.
 

Pokémon

Member
Oct 27, 2017
11,679
Didn't we just have a Direct where a portion of it was dedicated to demonstrate Fire Emblem Three Houses? I mean you don't have to like the graphics but saying that "we know almost nothing about Fire Emblem Three Houses" is factually wrong.
 
Oct 26, 2017
20,440
Didn't we just have a Direct where a portion of it was dedicated to demonstrate Fire Emblem Three Houses? I mean you don't have to like the graphics but saying that "we know almost nothing about Fire Emblem Three Houses" is factually wrong.

Well it's pretty obvious that all of that was pre """twist""" that leads to a more war like setting.

Not sure about

-The plot
-Battle changes
-How leveling and camp will work after the war breaks out.
-General environmental setting (we've only seen like two areas...)
-Relationship possibilities
-Combat changes


Which is a decent bit of stuff.
 

Fisico

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,106
Paris
Well, sure, but Switch has shown on several occasions (for example with Smash and Kirby) that it can debut like a 3DS game or better despite a vastly smaller install base. Install base doesn't seem to be a big enough limiting factor to preclude debuts above 3DS equivalent games.

That's what I'm reading as well, I was merely providing additional data.
 

Alandring

Banned
Feb 2, 2018
1,841
Switzerland
If you think that is actually a reasonable bar for first week sales, i guess prepare to be dissapointed.

Legs have been the main difference in showing switch health software results
Not debuts
In first week, a comparison between the last entry on 3DS (exluding ports, remake and remastered) and on Switch (all numbers are from Game Data Library) :

Yoshi's New Island (66 225) --> Yoshi's Crafted World (50 007) : -24%
Super Smash Bros. for 3DS (987 239) --> Super Smash Bros. Ultimate (1 238 358) : + 25%
Mario Party Island Tour (135 419) --> Super Mario Party (126 275) : -7%
Mario Tennis Open (124 377) --> Mario Tennis Aces (122 070) : -2%
Kirby Planet Robobop (153 878) --> Kirby Star Allies (223 811) : +45%
Super Mario 3D Land (344 698) --> Super Mario Odyssey (511 625) : +48%
A Link Between Worlds (225 418) --> Breath of the Wild (193 060) : -14%


So yeah, I was wrong: not every game was up in comparison to 3DS, but three games (two if you want to count the best selling Kirby on 3DS) perform well above what they did on 3DS, two games did slighty less and only two games did sharply less, Breath of the wild (a launch title also available on Wii U at the same time) and Yoshi. Even this game is only 24% down.

Fire Emblem Fates did 353 201 in first week. 76% of that would be 268 433, and it would mean that the game would match the percentage drop of the worst selling Switch exclusive yet. So yeah, less than 300 000 in first week would be a bad launch for the game. The IP was bigger than Kirby IP on 3DS, so it would be really disapponting if it did less (or not really better) on Switch.