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Media Create Sales: Week 16, 2018 (Apr 16 - Apr 22)

Oct 25, 2017
5,660
0
Damn quoting me for getting something wrong huh. Never thought i would see the day lol
I left your name out, since the point was only to mention it existed, not to call you out in specific.

Edit:

Whoops, the links weren’t supposed to be in there, my bad. That was just for organizational purposes in notepad.
 

Peace

Alt Account
Member
Oct 27, 2017
978
0
France
What are you talking about? Who exactly has been "denying reality"?
Denying the fact that some people here are - more often than not - highly optimistic when it comes to most of the Switch games sales potential, like I proved it yesterday for Labo legs when Sfortunato accused me of using a strawman-argument (that I proved wrong by quoting directly the members I had in mind at this time).

Like I said, it's not a problem in itself. Some can also say I'm highly optimistic when it comes to KH3 because I believe in the game and all the strenghts it has. That would be correct, but I'm not denying it. When Sfortunato told me yesterday (or the day before ?) that no members here expected Labo to have legs for certain and pretended I was imagining things, that was denying reality to me, as I proved him otherwise in my answer to him by quoting the members I had in mind (backing up my claim). It was lame because I had to track down the members interventions on the first pages, but I did it and frankly, it's tiring to always be accused of inventing things and having to dig up some past members contribution, especially when I always proved I'm never talking from my a**.

...depends on what you said.

I remember a few people saying Kirby could do 1m, but the general consensus was higher than 600-700k. No one really argued that.
If you said something like 300-400k then you'd get pushback for obvious reasons.

Just saying Kirby may or may not sell 1m...why would that spark debate??
I didn't share my expectations about Kirby, so it wasn't even about that, I could care less about the game sales results honestly. I was just really surprised so many people were convinced that it would reach 1m that easily, especially after release and I voiced it. To me, it wasn't and still isn't a lock kind of scenario, like I said. That's a discussion I had with some of you last or week or the week before and I wasn't arguing with ghosts. I never said it was the majority though.
 
Oct 24, 2017
2,272
0
Denying the fact that some people here are - more often than not - highly optimistic when it comes to most of the Switch games sales potential, like I proved it yesterday for Labo legs when Sfortunato accused me of using a strawman-argument (that I proved wrong by quoting directly the members I had in mind at this time).
.
Users are optimistic about Switch software sales potential and legs because Switch software has sold really well and displayed really good legs.

Besides, if I'm remembering correctly, you're the poster who was so optimistic about Labo that 1.5M would be a disappointment, right?
 
Oct 25, 2017
5,660
0
Does it make sense to quote perhaps the only person saying something like that when the user was implying it was a general thinking around here?
For 300-400K, it looks like this wasn’t that uncommon in the final predictions thread:

>300K Mario Tennis Aces*, Donkey Kong Tropical Freeze, Mario + Rabbids
May
[NSW] Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze (3 May) - 150k FW, 500k LTD
I'm thinking at least 400k
This one is still possible-ish if it has huge legs:
Donkey Kong Country Tropical Freeze - May 3 - 65k/450k
I excluded the people who said something like 60K open/300K LTD.

That said, I think what’s valuable to do is less trying to find specific posters who were wrong and instead analyze why something performed the way it did.

Similarly, it doesn’t make sense to deny that predictions like this were made when analyzing, since the focus should be on what types of things the Switch has and hasn’t floated to new heights.
 
Oct 25, 2017
12,688
0
DK predictions got kinda high. I thought it was mostly ~300k but apparently not.


then again it hasn't even come out yet.

But anyway.

Post the nostalgia hit of DKC Returns, I'm not sure DKC still has over 4m sales potential. Tropical Freeze is as good as the series has gotten and maybe can get.
a lot of people still think DKC2 is the best.

In fact part of the reason DKC:TF gets a lot of love now is how much it was under appreciated. Cause at release it only got a 83 metacritic and did not have a "best in the series" narrative like BotW got. The narrative was more "iterative sequel" for some reason and it was largely ignored. Being on Wii u didn't help. You're over stating how loved it was at the beginning.


why wouldn't a new one do more than 4m.
You're not providing any evidence.
 

Peace

Alt Account
Member
Oct 27, 2017
978
0
France
Users are optimistic about Switch software sales potential and legs because Switch software has sold really well and displayed really good legs.
You could at least aknowledge that I answered your question and that you didn't make that much effort to understand my point before jumping to your gun in the first place ? I don't know, I did put some effort to explain my point to you, didn't I ?

I understand why people are being optimistic about Switch software, like I said, I won't blame them, but let's not pretend it's not the case each time a Switch game sales results are "disappointing".

Besides, if I'm remembering correctly, you're the poster who was so optimistic about Labo that 1.5M would be a disappointment, right?
Of course, but it isn't a pattern of mine, it was just about Labo, not almost every Switch software titles released and I won't try hard to deny it like it's sometime the case here.
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,204
0
Italy
For 300-400K, it looks like this wasn’t that uncommon in the final predictions thread:

This one is still possible-ish if it has huge legs:


I excluded the people who said something like 60K open/300K LTD.

That said, I think what’s valuable to do is less trying to find specific posters who were wrong and instead analyze why something performed the way it did.
Uncommon/common should refer considering the total amount of predictions. But in any case, these are not completely unrealistic expectations.
 
Oct 25, 2017
5,660
0
I feel there are a few takeaways from recent software.

1.) New games do seem to be hitting all time highs, or at least highs they haven’t hit in a long time. Kirby is a notable example here. I think the four player co-op helped here too given how much Japan likes multiplayer these days.

2.) “Core games” like Xenoblade and Zelda do seem to be selling better than they have been on recent Nintendo consoles. You could probably lump Bayonetta’s reasonable performance here as well. This is probably quite good for upcoming games like Fire Emblem.

3.) I do think Mario Kart was more of an exception than a rule when it comes to rereleases and the Switch. It’s true Bayonetta went over the Wii U version as well, but that was a really low sales bar. I would expect most rereleases to perform like slightly better than normal rereleases instead of being major forces. One exception might be Mario Maker.

Edit: I’ll rephrase this point. I don’t think games that weren’t huge hits on the Wii U are likely to see major breakthrough performance on the Switch, even if they achieve similar or slightly higher modest results to what they did previously.

4.) In general, I feel sales on the Switch show less that it’s a market defying anomaly, but rather simply what we haven’t had in Japan in a long time, which is a strong and healthy platform with console games on it. Put another way, I would expect things that haven’t happened in a long time, not things that have never happened.
 
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Peace

Alt Account
Member
Oct 27, 2017
978
0
France
Does it make sense to quote perhaps the only person saying something like that when the user was implying it was a general thinking around here?
To be honest, he said "many", not that it was the consensus nor the majority, IIRC, but yeah, you're right I think Itwasmeantobe19 stretched it when it said "many".

I won't dig everythings up, I don't find it healthy, but it wasn't just one member though. I could send you one other exemple by PM if you really ask me to back-up my claim. But frankly, you can't ask us - again and again - to take hours to digs things up and put in front of everyone other people wrong predictions, it's not healthy and that's not a joker I'd use personally. Especially when you know that me and Nirolak aren't the kind of member who usually make things up.

You asked me to do it yesterday or the day before, I commited, I did back-up my claim, but I won't commit to it in the future, once is enough and I hope you'll stop using this card from now on.
 
Oct 26, 2017
4,884
0
I'm just not sure if Tropical Freeze sells 2.5-3m over two separate releases on two different consoles with two fairly big marketing pushes for each release, that DKC6 can then sell like 6m units instead of sticking to 3-4m as well.
 
Oct 25, 2017
12,688
0
I feel there are a few takeaways from recent software.

3.) I do think Mario Kart was more of an exception than a rule when it comes to re-releases and the Switch. It’s true Bayonetta went over the Wii U version as well, but that was a really low sales bar.
we have
Pokken DX
MK8D
Bayo
DK will do similarly to DK Wii U at worst, and a lot better at best.


so only Hyrule might finish well below the Wii U version (and it got a 3DS release)
Captain Toad is split with 3DS so it's hard to judge.

why is Mario Kart an exception?
 
Oct 24, 2017
2,272
0
You could at least aknowledge that I answered your question and that you didn't make that much effort to understand my point before jumping to your gun in the first place ? I don't know, I did put some effort to explain my point to you, didn't I ?

I understand why people are being optimistic about Switch software, like I said, I won't blame them, but let's not pretend it's not the case each time a Switch game sales results are "disappointing".
I *think* you’re trying to argue posters (some? Most? All?) are overly optimistic/biased towards Switch titles?

But I don’t see any real evidence for that claim. The only real Switch software I would say has been disappointing in Japan was FE Warriors. The other 2 examples you seem to be referring too is something that has been tracked for 2 days and another title that hasn’t released.
 
Oct 25, 2017
5,660
0
we have
Pokken DX
MK8D
Bayo
DK will do similarly to DK Wii U at worst, and a lot better at best.


so only Hyrule might finish well below the Wii U version (and it got a 3DS release)
Captain Toad is split with 3DS so it's hard to judge.

why is Mario Kart an exception?
Did Bayo outsell the base game in Japan?

I did forget Pokken.

I realize I transitioned thoughts between Japan in specific and worldwide there mid paragraph.

Edit:

Wait, I said ”major forces” here, not “sell more”. Bayonetta and Pokken were not that.

A 500K+ Donkey Kong would be a huge title.

A game that didn’t have huge success on the Wii U isn’t likely to be a breakout hit on the Switch because it was actually possible to be a major hit on Wii U (see Splatoon, Mario Kart, Smash), and there was a reason they didn’t have huge success the first time around.
 
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Oct 25, 2017
12,688
0
Did Bayo outsell the base game in Japan?

I did forget Pokken.

I realize I transitioned thoughts between Japan in specific and worldwide there mid paragraph.
I forgot what Bayo did.

Wasn't there so much garbage they pulled with the port?
like not enough climax edition
and better deals to get 1+2 on eshop? I forget


what did captain toad do btw. around 120k?

edit:
oh and do we add DQX to the wii u port discussion
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,448
0
I get starry eyed when I talk about the potential of Switch, I do admit. I think it is a beautiful thing.

I think I toe the line between pessimist and optimist about its actual performance and what is being made with it, landing on "It is doing pretty well. It looks it will get expanded support relative to support streams from Wii U+3DS. I don't think Japanese publishers will utilize it maximally though, but I want to watch what they do do with it."
 
Oct 25, 2017
404
0
Mexico
2.) “Core games” like Xenoblade and Zelda do seem to be selling better than they have been on recent Nintendo consoles. You could probably lump Bayonetta’s reasonable performance here as well. This is probably quite good for upcoming games like Fire Emblem.
With Fire Emblem Warriors at more than a million in less of a year I feel quite confident on Fire Emblem Switch on doing more than 3M worldwide... provided that IS continues with the direction of Fates/Awakening rather than SoV. I think that people like the shipping aspect too much for that to be a feature that should be cut and it would look like a step back if it's missing. The series should also keep the designs that people find controversial rather than the safe stuff of SoV. If FEH it's an indication it does the best when it embraces the "silly" aspects of the series.

I'm just not sure if Tropical Freeze sells 2.5-3m over two separate releases on two different consoles with two fairly big marketing pushes for each release, that DKC6 can then sell like 6m units instead of sticking to 3-4m as well.
If games like Yoshi and Kirby at their LTD only end up doing marginally better than their 3DS counterparts I wouldn't bet on a Donkey Kong to return to those highs either.
 

Peace

Alt Account
Member
Oct 27, 2017
978
0
France
I *think* you’re trying to argue posters (some? Most? All?) are overly optimistic/biased towards Switch titles?
Not really. You missed the point and I think it was clear enough that the problem wasn't people being "overly" optimistic in itself. I think you should read the conversation again.
 
Oct 26, 2017
4,884
0
Fire Emblem's designs are garbage, but pandering waifu garbage is v popular.

But I would like a shipping game without waifu garbage as I feel a shipping game would be incredibly popular among women based on how popular fanfiction is among women.

Also, Fire Emblem should stay away forever from Nowi-like designs.

Never again.
 
I was confused when I read this as well. I'm pretty sure last week there were three Switch games still in the UK top ten. (Kart, Odyssey and BOTW)
As they have been since Christmas. Switch appears to be performing similarly weekly to XB1, which has been on the market three years longer and is in its biggest market outside of the UK. Obviously not with the big MHW and FC5 spikes though, so total volume is likely still considerably smaller, but since Christmas Switch is ostensibly doing very well in the UK too.

Big drop for Labo week 2 on COMG
V: 72 to 20
R: 20 to less than 9
Gow:
57 to 49
Yowza.
 
Oct 27, 2017
2,024
0
ComG! Week Sales, 2018 (April 23 - April 29)




01/ N [PS4] Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball 2018 - 162 pt
02/ N [PSV] Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball 2018 - 63 pt

03/02 [PS4] God of War - 49 pt (-8 pt)
04/ N [PSV] Natsuiro Kokoro Log - 27 pt
05/ N [PS4] Utawarerumono: A Lullaby For Those Who Are Scattered (premium edition) - 27 pt

06/08 [NSW] Kirby Star Allies - 22 pt (+11 pt)
07/01 [NSW] Nintendo Labo Toy - Con 01: Variety Kit - 20 pt (-52 pt)
08/ N [NSW] SD Gundam G Generation Genesis - 20 pt
09/ N [PS4] The Legend of Heroes: Trails of Cold Steel II Kai - The Erebonian Civil War - 17 pt

10/05 [NSW] The Snack World: Trejarers Gold - 15 pt (+1 pt)
11/ R [PS4] Monster Hunter: World - 14 pt
12/09 [NSW] Splatoon 2 - 14 pt (+5 pt)
13/ N [PS4] Utawarerumono: A Lullaby For Those Who Are Scattered (normal version) - 13 pt
14/ N [PSV] Utawarerumono: A Lullaby For Those Who Are Scattered (premium edition) - 11 pt
15/ N [NSW] Naruto Shippuden: Ultimate Ninja Storm Trilogy - 11 pt
16/ N [PSV] Utawarerumono: A Lullaby For Those Who Are Scattered (normal version) - 10 pt
17/ N [PSV] NadeRevo! Nadeshiko Revolution (normal version) - 10 pt

18/13 [NSW] Dragon Ball: Xenoverse 2 - 10 pt (+3 pt)
19/12 [PS4] Far Cry 5 - 9 pt (+4 pt)
20/15 [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 9 pt (+3 pt)


NSW: 8
PS4: 7
PSV: 5


ComG! Week Sales, 2018 (April 16 - April 22)
https://www.resetera.com/posts/7073740/
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,167
0
Tokyo
They botched the Bayonetta release for some of us. I was 100% going to buy and now there is virtually 0% I will buy. If I can't get the climax release I'm not going to buy any of them.
 
Oct 25, 2017
2,785
0
Eh everyone is kind of jumping the gun. We don't know what Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze will end up at or Labo for that matter. I don't think we will see Retro releasing a new version of DKC in a 2D variety anyways, so I don't think we will have to worry about the sales potential of a new entry. At most I can see some form of 3D Donkey Kong game coming or another studio taking a crack at the DKC line, shit it might be what Mercury Steam is working on.