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Media Create Sales: Week 16, 2018 (Apr 16 - Apr 22)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
I left your name out, since the point was only to mention it existed, not to call you out in specific.
Edit:
Whoops, the links weren't supposed to be in there, my bad. That was just for organizational purposes in notepad.
Denying the fact that some people here are - more often than not - highly optimistic when it comes to most of the Switch games sales potential, like I proved it yesterday for Labo legs when Sfortunato accused me of using a strawman-argument (that I proved wrong by quoting directly the members I had in mind at this time).
Like I said, it's not a problem in itself. Some can also say I'm highly optimistic when it comes to KH3 because I believe in the game and all the strenghts it has. That would be correct, but I'm not denying it. When Sfortunato told me yesterday (or the day before ?) that no members here expected Labo to have legs for certain and pretended I was imagining things, that was denying reality to me, as I proved him otherwise in my answer to him by quoting the members I had in mind (backing up my claim). It was lame because I had to track down the members interventions on the first pages, but I did it and frankly, it's tiring to always be accused of inventing things and having to dig up some past members contribution, especially when I always proved I'm never talking from my a**.
I didn't share my expectations about Kirby, so it wasn't even about that, I could care less about the game sales results honestly. I was just really surprised so many people were convinced that it would reach 1m that easily, especially after release and I voiced it. To me, it wasn't and still isn't a lock kind of scenario, like I said. That's a discussion I had with some of you last or week or the week before and I wasn't arguing with ghosts. I never said it was the majority though.
Is it useful for the conversation to quote perhaps the only person saying something like that when the user was implying it was a general thinking around here?
Users are optimistic about Switch software sales potential and legs because Switch software has sold really well and displayed really good legs.
Besides, if I'm remembering correctly, you're the poster who was so optimistic about Labo that 1.5M would be a disappointment, right?
For 300-400K, it looks like this wasn't that uncommon in the final predictions thread:
This one is still possible-ish if it has huge legs:
I excluded the people who said something like 60K open/300K LTD.
That said, I think what's valuable to do is less trying to find specific posters who were wrong and instead analyze why something performed the way it did.
Similarly, it doesn't make sense to deny that predictions like this were made when analyzing, since the focus should be on what types of things the Switch has and hasn't floated to new heights.
But anyway.
Post the nostalgia hit of DKC Returns, I'm not sure DKC still has over 4m sales potential. Tropical Freeze is as good as the series has gotten and maybe can get.
Post the nostalgia hit of DKC Returns, I'm not sure DKC still has over 4m sales potential. Tropical Freeze is as good as the series has gotten and maybe can get.
DK predictions got kinda high. I thought it was mostly ~300k but apparently not.
then again it hasn't even come out yet.
a lot of people still think DKC2 is the best.
In fact part of the reason DKC:TF gets a lot of love now is how much it was under appreciated. Cause at release it only got a 83 metacritic and did not have a "best in the series" narrative like BotW got. The narrative was more "iterative sequel" for some reason and it was largely ignored. Being on Wii u didn't help. You're over stating how loved it was at the beginning.
why wouldn't a new one do more than 4m.
You're not providing any evidence.
then again it hasn't even come out yet.
a lot of people still think DKC2 is the best.
In fact part of the reason DKC:TF gets a lot of love now is how much it was under appreciated. Cause at release it only got a 83 metacritic and did not have a "best in the series" narrative like BotW got. The narrative was more "iterative sequel" for some reason and it was largely ignored. Being on Wii u didn't help. You're over stating how loved it was at the beginning.
why wouldn't a new one do more than 4m.
You're not providing any evidence.
You could at least aknowledge that I answered your question and that you didn't make that much effort to understand my point before jumping to your gun in the first place ? I don't know, I did put some effort to explain my point to you, didn't I ?
I understand why people are being optimistic about Switch software, like I said, I won't blame them, but let's not pretend it's not the case each time a Switch game sales results are "disappointing".
Of course, but it isn't a pattern of mine, it was just about Labo, not almost every Switch software titles released and I won't try hard to deny it like it's sometime the case here.
Uncommon/common should refer considering the total amount of predictions. But in any case, these are not completely unrealistic expectations.
I feel there are a few takeaways from recent software.
1.) New games do seem to be hitting all time highs, or at least highs they haven't hit in a long time. Kirby is a notable example here. I think the four player co-op helped here too given how much Japan likes multiplayer these days.
2.) "Core games" like Xenoblade and Zelda do seem to be selling better than they have been on recent Nintendo consoles. You could probably lump Bayonetta's reasonable performance here as well. This is probably quite good for upcoming games like Fire Emblem.
3.) I do think Mario Kart was more of an exception than a rule when it comes to rereleases and the Switch. It's true Bayonetta went over the Wii U version as well, but that was a really low sales bar. I would expect most rereleases to perform like slightly better than normal rereleases instead of being major forces. One exception might be Mario Maker.
Edit: I'll rephrase this point. I don't think games that weren't huge hits on the Wii U are likely to see major breakthrough performance on the Switch, even if they achieve similar or slightly higher modest results to what they did previously.
4.) In general, I feel sales on the Switch show less that it's a market defying anomaly, but rather simply what we haven't had in Japan in a long time, which is a strong and healthy platform with console games on it. Put another way, I would expect things that haven't happened in a long time, not things that have never happened.
1.) New games do seem to be hitting all time highs, or at least highs they haven't hit in a long time. Kirby is a notable example here. I think the four player co-op helped here too given how much Japan likes multiplayer these days.
2.) "Core games" like Xenoblade and Zelda do seem to be selling better than they have been on recent Nintendo consoles. You could probably lump Bayonetta's reasonable performance here as well. This is probably quite good for upcoming games like Fire Emblem.
3.) I do think Mario Kart was more of an exception than a rule when it comes to rereleases and the Switch. It's true Bayonetta went over the Wii U version as well, but that was a really low sales bar. I would expect most rereleases to perform like slightly better than normal rereleases instead of being major forces. One exception might be Mario Maker.
Edit: I'll rephrase this point. I don't think games that weren't huge hits on the Wii U are likely to see major breakthrough performance on the Switch, even if they achieve similar or slightly higher modest results to what they did previously.
4.) In general, I feel sales on the Switch show less that it's a market defying anomaly, but rather simply what we haven't had in Japan in a long time, which is a strong and healthy platform with console games on it. Put another way, I would expect things that haven't happened in a long time, not things that have never happened.
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To be honest, he said "many", not that it was the consensus nor the majority, IIRC, but yeah, you're right I think Itwasmeantobe19 stretched it when it said "many".
I won't dig everythings up, I don't find it healthy, but it wasn't just one member though. I could send you one other exemple by PM if you really ask me to back-up my claim. But frankly, you can't ask us - again and again - to take hours to digs things up and put in front of everyone other people wrong predictions, it's not healthy and that's not a joker I'd use personally. Especially when you know that me and Nirolak aren't the kind of member who usually make things up.
You asked me to do it yesterday or the day before, I commited, I did back-up my claim, but I won't commit to it in the future, once is enough and I hope you'll stop using this card from now on.
I'm just not sure if Tropical Freeze sells 2.5-3m over two separate releases on two different consoles with two fairly big marketing pushes for each release, that DKC6 can then sell like 6m units instead of sticking to 3-4m as well.
we have
Pokken DX
MK8D
Bayo
DK will do similarly to DK Wii U at worst, and a lot better at best.
so only Hyrule might finish well below the Wii U version (and it got a 3DS release)
Captain Toad is split with 3DS so it's hard to judge.
why is Mario Kart an exception?
I *think* you're trying to argue posters (some? Most? All?) are overly optimistic/biased towards Switch titles?
But I don't see any real evidence for that claim. The only real Switch software I would say has been disappointing in Japan was FE Warriors. The other 2 examples you seem to be referring too is something that has been tracked for 2 days and another title that hasn't released.
Did Bayo outsell the base game in Japan?
I did forget Pokken.
I realize I transitioned thoughts between Japan in specific and worldwide there mid paragraph.
Edit:
Wait, I said "major forces" here, not "sell more". Bayonetta and Pokken were not that.
A 500K+ Donkey Kong would be a huge title.
A game that didn't have huge success on the Wii U isn't likely to be a breakout hit on the Switch because it was actually possible to be a major hit on Wii U (see Splatoon, Mario Kart, Smash), and there was a reason they didn't have huge success the first time around.
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I forgot what Bayo did.
Wasn't there so much garbage they pulled with the port?
like not enough climax edition
and better deals to get 1+2 on eshop? I forget
what did captain toad do btw. around 120k?
edit:
oh and do we add DQX to the wii u port discussion
I get starry eyed when I talk about the potential of Switch, I do admit. I think it is a beautiful thing.
I think I toe the line between pessimist and optimist about its actual performance and what is being made with it, landing on "It is doing pretty well. It looks it will get expanded support relative to support streams from Wii U+3DS. I don't think Japanese publishers will utilize it maximally though, but I want to watch what they do do with it."
I think I toe the line between pessimist and optimist about its actual performance and what is being made with it, landing on "It is doing pretty well. It looks it will get expanded support relative to support streams from Wii U+3DS. I don't think Japanese publishers will utilize it maximally though, but I want to watch what they do do with it."
Around 170k units.
MC has it a little higher:
345./124. [WIU] Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker # <ADV> (Nintendo) {2014.11.13} (¥3.700) - 10.856 / 187.318 (-81%) (28.025 <42,47%>)
wow, nice legs.
I'm not sure Captain Toad will match it, even with 3DS.
I don't think that's realistic. Should be able to make a good dent in it.
I was confused when I read this as well. I'm pretty sure last week there were three Switch games still in the UK top ten. (Kart, Odyssey and BOTW)
With Fire Emblem Warriors at more than a million in less of a year I feel quite confident on Fire Emblem Switch on doing more than 3M worldwide... provided that IS continues with the direction of Fates/Awakening rather than SoV. I think that people like the shipping aspect too much for that to be a feature that should be cut and it would look like a step back if it's missing. The series should also keep the designs that people find controversial rather than the safe stuff of SoV. If FEH it's an indication it does the best when it embraces the "silly" aspects of the series.
If games like Yoshi and Kirby at their LTD only end up doing marginally better than their 3DS counterparts I wouldn't bet on a Donkey Kong to return to those highs either.
Not really. You missed the point and I think it was clear enough that the problem wasn't people being "overly" optimistic in itself. I think you should read the conversation again.
Fire Emblem's designs are garbage, but pandering waifu garbage is v popular.
But I would like a shipping game without waifu garbage as I feel a shipping game would be incredibly popular among women based on how popular fanfiction is among women.
Also, Fire Emblem should stay away forever from Nowi-like designs.
Never again.
But I would like a shipping game without waifu garbage as I feel a shipping game would be incredibly popular among women based on how popular fanfiction is among women.
Also, Fire Emblem should stay away forever from Nowi-like designs.
Never again.
As they have been since Christmas. Switch appears to be performing similarly weekly to XB1, which has been on the market three years longer and is in its biggest market outside of the UK. Obviously not with the big MHW and FC5 spikes though, so total volume is likely still considerably smaller, but since Christmas Switch is ostensibly doing very well in the UK too.
Yowza.
ComG! Week Sales, 2018 (April 23 - April 29)
01/ N [PS4] Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball 2018 - 162 pt
02/ N [PSV] Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball 2018 - 63 pt
03/02 [PS4] God of War - 49 pt (-8 pt)
04/ N [PSV] Natsuiro Kokoro Log - 27 pt
05/ N [PS4] Utawarerumono: A Lullaby For Those Who Are Scattered (premium edition) - 27 pt
06/08 [NSW] Kirby Star Allies - 22 pt (+11 pt)
07/01 [NSW] Nintendo Labo Toy - Con 01: Variety Kit - 20 pt (-52 pt)
08/ N [NSW] SD Gundam G Generation Genesis - 20 pt
09/ N [PS4] The Legend of Heroes: Trails of Cold Steel II Kai - The Erebonian Civil War - 17 pt
10/05 [NSW] The Snack World: Trejarers Gold - 15 pt (+1 pt)
11/ R [PS4] Monster Hunter: World - 14 pt
12/09 [NSW] Splatoon 2 - 14 pt (+5 pt)
13/ N [PS4] Utawarerumono: A Lullaby For Those Who Are Scattered (normal version) - 13 pt
14/ N [PSV] Utawarerumono: A Lullaby For Those Who Are Scattered (premium edition) - 11 pt
15/ N [NSW] Naruto Shippuden: Ultimate Ninja Storm Trilogy - 11 pt
16/ N [PSV] Utawarerumono: A Lullaby For Those Who Are Scattered (normal version) - 10 pt
17/ N [PSV] NadeRevo! Nadeshiko Revolution (normal version) - 10 pt
18/13 [NSW] Dragon Ball: Xenoverse 2 - 10 pt (+3 pt)
19/12 [PS4] Far Cry 5 - 9 pt (+4 pt)
20/15 [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 9 pt (+3 pt)
NSW: 8
PS4: 7
PSV: 5
ComG! Week Sales, 2018 (April 16 - April 22)
https://www.resetera.com/posts/7073740/
01/ N [PS4] Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball 2018 - 162 pt
02/ N [PSV] Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball 2018 - 63 pt
03/02 [PS4] God of War - 49 pt (-8 pt)
04/ N [PSV] Natsuiro Kokoro Log - 27 pt
05/ N [PS4] Utawarerumono: A Lullaby For Those Who Are Scattered (premium edition) - 27 pt
06/08 [NSW] Kirby Star Allies - 22 pt (+11 pt)
07/01 [NSW] Nintendo Labo Toy - Con 01: Variety Kit - 20 pt (-52 pt)
08/ N [NSW] SD Gundam G Generation Genesis - 20 pt
09/ N [PS4] The Legend of Heroes: Trails of Cold Steel II Kai - The Erebonian Civil War - 17 pt
10/05 [NSW] The Snack World: Trejarers Gold - 15 pt (+1 pt)
11/ R [PS4] Monster Hunter: World - 14 pt
12/09 [NSW] Splatoon 2 - 14 pt (+5 pt)
13/ N [PS4] Utawarerumono: A Lullaby For Those Who Are Scattered (normal version) - 13 pt
14/ N [PSV] Utawarerumono: A Lullaby For Those Who Are Scattered (premium edition) - 11 pt
15/ N [NSW] Naruto Shippuden: Ultimate Ninja Storm Trilogy - 11 pt
16/ N [PSV] Utawarerumono: A Lullaby For Those Who Are Scattered (normal version) - 10 pt
17/ N [PSV] NadeRevo! Nadeshiko Revolution (normal version) - 10 pt
18/13 [NSW] Dragon Ball: Xenoverse 2 - 10 pt (+3 pt)
19/12 [PS4] Far Cry 5 - 9 pt (+4 pt)
20/15 [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 9 pt (+3 pt)
NSW: 8
PS4: 7
PSV: 5
ComG! Week Sales, 2018 (April 16 - April 22)
https://www.resetera.com/posts/7073740/
It'll start this week, maybe light, but next week will be full force.
04/28-04/30, 05/03-05/06 are holidays for everyone.
Many people fill a gap and get nine-days consecutive holidays.
In this case, 04/28-05/06 are Golden Week.
For the others, 05/03-05/06 are Golden Week.
Eh everyone is kind of jumping the gun. We don't know what Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze will end up at or Labo for that matter. I don't think we will see Retro releasing a new version of DKC in a 2D variety anyways, so I don't think we will have to worry about the sales potential of a new entry. At most I can see some form of 3D Donkey Kong game coming or another studio taking a crack at the DKC line, shit it might be what Mercury Steam is working on.
TSUTAYA Ranking Sales, 2018 (April 23 - April 29)
3: [PS4] God of War
11: [PS4] Cities Skylines
NSW: 10
PS4: 8
PSV: 2
3: [PS4] God of War
11: [PS4] Cities Skylines
NSW: 10
PS4: 8
PSV: 2
Labo was behind GoW on Tsutaya last week too, but it didn't reflect on MC/Famitsu.
