Media Create Sales: Week 16, 2019 (Apr 15 - Apr 21)

[D.Lo]

Mario Maker 2 is out on Switch on June 28th in Japan

Japanese box art.
First print comes with a capacitive touch pen

Can anyone that knows japanese help with a translation?
There seems to be a version that comes with 12 months of Nintendo Online. I do not know if that's a more expensive edition, or also a first print run bonus.

Click to shrink...

My Japanese is rough, but it's 5980 for standard and 6980 for the 'Online Set' (pictured). And you can use the online ticket until the end of October.

 

[Chris1964]

Famitsu Sales: Week 16, 2019 (Apr 15 - Apr 21)

01./01. [PS4] Earth Defense Force: Iron Rain <ACT> (D3Publisher) {2019.04.11} (¥7.800) - 12.923 / 68.496 <80-100%> (-77%)
02./00. [PS4] Langrisser I & II <Langrisser \ Langrisser II> # <SLG> (Kadokawa Games) {2019.04.18} (¥6.800) - 11.902 / NEW <80-100%>
03./06. [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate # <FTG> (Nintendo) {2018.12.07} (¥7.200) - 11.080 / 3.029.577 <80-100%> (-2%)
04./02. [NSW] Nintendo Labo Toy-Con 04: VR Kit # <EDU> (Nintendo) {2019.04.12} (¥7.980) - 9.074 / 35.708 <40-60%> (-66%)
05./05. [NSW] Yoshi's Crafted World <ACT> (Nintendo) {2019.03.29} (¥5.980) - 9.061 / 100.733 <60-80%> (-31%)
06./00. [NSW] Langrisser I & II <Langrisser \ Langrisser II> # <SLG> (Kadokawa Games) {2019.04.18} (¥6.800) - 9.031 / NEW <60-80%>
07./08. [NSW] Minecraft # <ADV> (Microsoft Game Studios) {2018.06.21} (¥3.600) - 8.532 / 737.500 <80-100%> (-6%)
08./04. [NSW] Super Dragon Ball Heroes: World Mission <TBL> (Bandai Namco Games) {2019.04.04} (¥6.800) - 8.161 / 93.283 <60-80%> (-42%)
09./07. [PS4] Sekiro: Shadows Die Twice <ADV> (From Software) {2019.03.22} (¥7.600) - 7.654 / 231.649 <80-100%> (-31%)
10./09. [NSW] New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe <New Super Mario Bros. U \ New Super Luigi U> <ACT> (Nintendo) {2019.01.11} (¥5.980) - 7.299 / 575.844 <80-100%> (-14%)
11./10. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe <RCE> (Nintendo) {2017.04.28} (¥5.980) - 6.875 / 2.261.125 <80-100%> (-12%)
12./03. [NSW] Final Fantasy X/X-2 HD Remaster <Final Fantasy X \ Final Fantasy X-2> <RPG> (Square Enix) {2019.04.11} (¥6.800) - 5.693 / 22.532 <60-80%> (-66%)
13./11. [NSW] Pokemon: Let's Go, Pikachu! / Let's Go, Eevee! # <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2018.11.16} (¥5.980) - 5.584 / 1.497.066 <80-100%> (-8%)
14./13. [NSW] Splatoon 2 # <ACT> (Nintendo) {2017.07.21} (¥5.980) - 5.186 / 3.039.517 <80-100%> (-3%)
15./12. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild # <ADV> (Nintendo) {2017.03.03} (¥6.980) - 5.125 / 1.292.105 <80-100%> (-9%)
16./14. [NSW] Super Mario Party # <ETC> (Nintendo) {2018.10.05} (¥5.980) - 4.421 / 1.000.900 <80-100%> (-10%)
17./15. [PS4] Tom Clancy's The Division 2 # <RPG> (Ubisoft) {2019.03.15} (¥8.400) - 2.973 / 101.702 <80-100%> (-24%)
18./17. [PS4] Kingdom Hearts III # <RPG> (Square Enix) {2019.01.25} (¥8.800) - 2.494 / 818.759 <80-100%> (-6%)
19./16. [PS4] Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six: Siege - Deluxe Edition <ACT> (Ubisoft) {2019.04.11} (¥3.600) - 2.245 / 5.862 <20-40%> (-38%)
20./18. [PS4] Devil May Cry 5 # <ACT> (Capcom) {2019.03.08} (¥6.990) - 2.107 / 176.972 <80-100%> (-11%)
21./00. [PS4] DiRT Rally 2.0 <RCE> (Ubisoft) {2019.04.18} (¥7.980) - 1.818 / NEW <20-40%>
22./22. [NSW] Super Mario Odyssey # <ACT> (Nintendo) {2017.10.27} (¥5.980) - 1.795 / 1.959.327 <80-100%> (-6%)
23./23. [NSW] Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum 'n' Fun! <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games) {2018.07.19} (¥6.100) - 1.658 / 324.954 <80-100%> (-13%)
24./25. [NSW] Kirby Star Allies <ACT> (Nintendo) {2018.03.16} (¥5.980) - 1.583 / 713.435 <80-100%> (-4%)
25./20. [PS4] Chocobo's Mystery Dungeon: Every Buddy! <RPG> (Square Enix) {2019.03.20} (¥4.800) - 1.501 / 30.971 <80-100%> (-26%)
26./21. [NSW] Chocobo's Mystery Dungeon: Every Buddy! <RPG> (Square Enix) {2019.03.20} (¥4.800) - 1.472 / 39.273 <80-100%> (-23%)
27./19. [PS4] Super Robot Wars T # <SLG> (Bandai Namco Games) {2019.03.20} (¥8.600) - 1.378 / 98.201 <80-100%> (-34%)
28./28. [3DS] Pokemon Ultra Sun / Ultra Moon # <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2017.11.17} (¥4.980) - 1.299 / 2.470.689 <80-100%> (+8%)
29./24. [PS4] Winning Post 9 <SLG> (Koei Tecmo) {2019.03.28} (¥8.800) - 1.225 / 18.281 <60-80%> (-31%)
30./27. [PS4] Battlefield V <ACT> (Electronic Arts) {2018.11.20} (¥7.800) - 1.129 / 173.831 <60-80%> (-11%)

Top 30

NSW - 17
PS4 - 12
3DS - 1

 

[Sterok]

Ultra Sun/Moon the only top 30 games that increased. Hanging in there as long they can.

 

[Chris1964]

Super Mario Party 1m at Famitsu this week, a few months after Media Create.

 

[ILikeFeet]

Real curious to see how much of an effect Detective Pikachu will have on LG and USUM

 

[Xbro]

What's our current estimate for smash ultimate digital? Where we went and calculated how much digital it was at the end of the year?

 

[Nuclear Muffin]

So going by the Nintendo Financial Results that were just released, Smash Ultimate did around 500K digital in Japan? (3.53 million shipped vs 3.029.577 Famitsu).

That's kind of an an insane digital ratio for Japan no?

 

[Oregano]

So going by the Nintendo Financial Results that were just released, Smash Ultimate did around 500K digital in Japan? (3.53 million shipped vs 3.029.577 Famitsu).

That's kind of an an insane digital ratio for Japan no?

Click to shrink...

Is Nintendo reliable though?

Let's wait for Famitsu to confirm.

 

[Myriotes]

#2 for the NSW road to 8m, nice :) 5/13 predictions got the week right, not bad I think.

MysticGon Looks like you would have won if the Switch sold 59 units less this week :|

Underestimated the PS4, had more promotions than I thought and some relatively strong weeks. Glad to see it performing better than expected.

 

[Fisico]

So going by the Nintendo Financial Results that were just released, Smash Ultimate did around 500K digital in Japan? (3.53 million shipped vs 3.029.577 Famitsu).

That's kind of an an insane digital ratio for Japan no?

Click to shrink...

15% for a game like Smash Bros strikes me as the expected digital ratio

 

[sfortunato]

25./20. [PS4] Chocobo's Mystery Dungeon: Every Buddy! <RPG> (Square Enix) {2019.03.20} (¥4.800) - 1.501 / 30.971 <80-100%> (-26%)
26./21. [NSW] Chocobo's Mystery Dungeon: Every Buddy! <RPG> (Square Enix) {2019.03.20} (¥4.800) - 1.472 / 39.273 <80-100%> (-23%)

Click to shrink...

Who has the better legs now? ;)

 

[Myriotes]

Only looking at sell-through data in Japan, I would agree with you. At the end of CY2017, sell-through in Japan was 91.5%, at the end of CY2018 it was 89%.

If the regional distribution is constant (taking the 9 months ending Dec 2018), it is entirely possible for Nintendo to only have shipped 17.5m and have a normal sell-through ratio in Japan, with 93.1%. Actually, that is the same ratio they had at the end of Q4/FY18-3. And looking at April and May, I do not see any reason to stuff the channels in order to be ready for a big launch.

However, I am not so sure if the external forecast is also used for internal planning. I would assume that they are more flexible there.

Click to shrink...

Quoting myself here: Sell-through in Japan is even higher than expected (Famitsu 7.86m vs. 8.23m shipped at the end of Q4), 95.5% in Japan has to be a sign that a revision is coming sooner than later. If they really wanted to, I'm sure that they could have a shipped a little bit more and at least meet their forecast of 17m.

 

[hiska-kun]

Japan LTD shipments (update):

Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - 3,53m (+360k)
Splatoon 2 - 3,44m (+110k)
Mario Kart 8 DX - 2,57m (+180k)
Super Mario Odyssey - 2,25m (+50k)
Pokemon Let's Go - 1,93m (+80k)
Zelda Breath of the Wild - 1,56m (+100k)
Super Mario Party - 1,22m (+170k)
Kirby Star Allies - 860k (+30k)
New Super Mario Bros. U DX - 690k
Mario Tennis Ace - 550k (+30k)
Labo 01: Variety Kit - 330k (+10k)
Donkey Kong TF - 290k (+10k)
Captain Toad TT - 240k (+10k)
Yoshi's Crafted World - 140k

 

[Fisico]

Nintendo Shipment in Japan for FY 2018/2019

| Mario Kart 8 Deluxe | 0.89M
| The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild | 0.47M
| Super Mario Odyssey | 0.34M
| Splatoon 2 | 0.83M
| Super Mario Party | 1.22M
| Pokémon Let's Go Pikachu/Eevee | 1.93M
| Super Smash Bros. Ultimate | 3.53M
| New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe | 0.69M
| Kirby Star Allies | 0.36M
| Yoshi's Crafted World | 0.14M

Click to shrink...

Media Create retail numbers for FY 2018/2019

| Mario Kart 8 Deluxe 756.470
| The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild 403.341
| Super Mario Odyssey <290.000
| Splatoon 2 787.764
| Super Mario Party 1.074.272
| Pokémon Let's Go Pikachu/Eevee 1.556.950
| Super Smash Bros. Ultimate 2.993.955
| New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe 551.473
| Kirby Star Allies >390.000
| Yoshi's Crafted World 50.007

Click to shrink...

From there, digital+leftover retail stock for FY 2018/2019

| Mario Kart 8 Deluxe >130k (<15% digital ratio)
| The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild <70k (<15% digital ratio)
| Super Mario Odyssey >50K (<15% digital ratio)
| Splatoon 2 >50K (>5% digital ratio)
| Super Mario Party <150K (>10% digital ratio)
| Pokémon Let's Go Pikachu/Eevee >380K (<20% digital ratio)
| Super Smash Bros. Ultimate >550K (15% digital ratio)
| New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe <140K (<20% digital ratio)
| Kirby Star Allies >30K (<10% digital ratio)
| Yoshi's Crafted World <90K (FW sales only, most of that is leftover stock so no digital ratio)

Click to shrink...

The most surprising thing is how weak digital is for Splatoon 2 I think

 

[Lelouch0612]

Nintendo Shipment in Japan for FY 2018/2019




Media Create retail numbers for FY 2018/2019



From there, digital+leftover retail stock for FY 2018/2019



The most surprising thing is how weak digital is for Splatoon 2 I think

Click to shrink...

Splatoon 2 was bundled a lot and those bundles counted as retail sales for Media Create and Famitsu

 

[Chris1964]

Q4 Japan

New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe - 690k
Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - 360k
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 180k
Super Mario Party - 170k
Yoshi's Crafted World - 140k
Splatoon 2 - 110k
The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 100k
Pokemon Let's Go - 80k
Super Mario Odyssey - 50k
Kirby Star Allies - 30k
Mario Tennis Aces - 30k
Nintendo Labo Joy-Con 01: Variety Kit - 10k
Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze - 10k
Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker - 10k

 

[hiska-kun]

Q4 Japan

New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe - 690k
Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - 360k
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 180k
Super Mario Party - 170k
Yoshi's Crafted World - 140k
Splatoon 2 - 110k
The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 100k
Pokemon Let's Go - 80k
Super Mario Odyssey - 50k
Kirby Star Allies - 30k
Mario Tennis Aces - 30k
Nintendo Labo Joy-Con 01: Variety Kit - 10k
Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze - 10k
Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker - 10k

Click to shrink...

Updated the variations in my previous message.

 

[DarkDetective]

June 28 - Super Mario Maker (Nintendo)
July 04 - PixArk (Spike Chunsoft)
July 18 - Shin Hayarigami 1 & 2 Pack (Nippon Ichi Software)

SWITCH: PHYSICAL GAMES

2019 (95 games)

JANUARY (8 games)
January 11 - New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe (Nintendo)
January 11 - Tales of Vesperia: Definitive Edition (Bandai Namco)
January 31 - Dragon Marked For Death (Inti Creates)
January 31 - Fate/EXTELLA LINK (Marvelous)
January 31 - Nelke & the Legendary Alchemists: Ateliers of the New World (Koei Temco)
January 31 - OPUS Collection (Flyhigh Works)
January 31 - ROBOTICS;NOTES DaSH (5pb.)
January 31 - Stardew Valley Collector's Edition (Oizumi Amuzio)

FEBRUARY (15 games)
February 07 - Blazblue Central Fiction Special Edition (Arc System Works)
February 14 - Kin'iro no Corda: Octave (Koei Tecmo)
February 14 - Nobunaga's Ambition: Taishi with Power-Up Kit (Koei Tecmo)
February 14 - Victor Vran Overkill Edition (3goo)
February 21 - Girls und Panzer: Dream Team Match DX (Bandai Namco)
February 21 - Gyakuten Saiban 123: Naruhodo Selection (Capcom)
February 28 - Darius: Cozmic Collection (Taito)
February 28 - Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of the Moon Exploration (FuRyu)
February 28 - Judgement 7: Our World is Ended (5pb.)
February 28 - My Girlfriend is a Mermaid!? (Cosen)
February 28 - Nora to Oujo to Noraneko Heart 2 (Piacci)
February 28 - Trials Rising (Ubisoft)
February 28 - Wizard's Symphony (Arc System Works)
February 28 - Yunohana SpRING! Mellow Times for Nintendo Switch (Idea Factory)
February 28 - Zoids Wild: King of Blast (Takara Tomy)

MARCH (17 games)
March 14 - Blade Arcus Rebellion from Shining (SEGA)
March 14 - Caligula Overdose (FuRyu)
March 14 - DESTINY CONNECT (Nippon Ichi Software)
March 14 - Harukanaru Toki no Naka de 6 DX (Koei Tecmo)
March 14 - Kono Yo no Hate de Koi wo Utau Shoujo YU-NO (5pb.)
March 14 - Samurai Warriors 4 DX (Koei Tecmo)
March 20 - Atelier Lulua: The Alchemist of Arland 4 (Koei Tecmo)
March 20 - Chocobo's Mystery Dungeon: Every Buddy! (Square Enix)
March 20 - Dead or Alive Xtreme 3: Scarlet (Koei Temco)
March 20 - Steins;Gate: Divergencies Assort (5pb.)
March 20 - Super Robot Taisen T (Bandai Namco)
March 28 - Diabolik Lovers: Chaos Lineage (Idea Factory)
March 28 - Memories Off: Innocent File for Dearest (5pb.)
March 28 - RemiLore (Pikii)
March 28 - The LEGO Movie 2 Videogame (WB Games)
March 28 - Winning Post 9 (Koei Tecmo)
March 29 - Yoshi's Crafted World (Nintendo)

APRIL (18 games)
April 04 - Super Dragon Ball Heroes: World Mission (Bandai Namco)
April 11 - Final Fantasy X/X-2 HD Remaster (Square Enix)
April 11 - THE Taikan! Sports Pack (D3 Publisher)
April 11 - THE Variety Game Daishuugou (D3 Publisher)
April 11 - V-Rally 4 (Oizumi Amuzio)
April 12 - Nintendo Labo Toy-Con 04: VR Kit (Nintendo)
April 18 - Langrisser I & II (Kadokawa Games)
April 18 - Taishou x Alice: All in One (Prototype)
April 25 - Cytus Alpha (Flyhigh Works)
April 25 - Dragon's Dogma: Dark Arisen (Capcom)
April 25 - Final Fantasy XII: The Zodiac Age (Square Enix)
April 25 - Murder Detective Jack the Ripper (Nippon Ichi Software)
April 25 - Piczle Puzzle Pack 3-in-1 (Rainy Frog)
April 25 - Project Highrise: Architect Edition (H2 Interactive)
April 25 - Reine des Fleurs for Nintendo Switch (Idea Factory)
April 25 - Starlink: Battle for Atlas (Ubisoft)
April 25 - Sword Art Online: Hollow Realization Deluxe Edition (Bandai Namco)
April 25 - Umihara Kawase Fresh! (Success)

MAY (10 games)
May 16 - Guilty Gear 20th Anniversary Pack (Arc System Works)
May 16 - Hanayaka Kana, Wa ga Ichizoku: Modern Nostalgie for Nintendo Switch (Idea Factory)
May 16 - RollerCoaster Tycoon Adventures (Oizumi Amuzio)
May 21 - Team Sonic Racing (SEGA)
May 23 - Assassin's Creed III Remastered (Ubisoft)
May 23 - Minna no Doubutsu Shogi (SilverStar Japan)
May 23 - Private Bellbara Academy: Rose of Versailles Re*imagination (Idea Factory)
May 23 - Resident Evil: Origins Collection (Capcom)
May 30 - Moujuutsukai to Ouji-sama: Flower & Snow for Nintendo Switch (Idea Factory)
May 30 - VA-11 Hall-A (Playism)

JUNE (10 games)
June 06 - Youkai Watch 4: Bokura wa Onaji Sora wo Miageteiru (Level-5)
June 13 - Doraemon: Nobita no Bokujou Monogatari (Doraemon x Story of Seasons) (Bandai Namco Entertainment)
June 20 - Hanayaka Kana, Wa ga Ichizoku: Gentou Nostalgie for Nintendo Switch (Idea Factory)
June 20 - Summer Pockets (Prototype)
June 27 - Clock Zero: Shuuen no Ichibyou Devote (Idea Factory)
June 27 - Jikkyou Powerful Pro Yakyuu (Konami)
June 27 - La-Mulana 2 (Active Gaming Media)
June 27 - Puyo Puyo eSports (SEGA) - digitally available since 2018-10-25
June 27 - To All Of Mankind (Nippon Ichi Software)
June 28 - Super Mario Maker (Nintendo)

JULY (13 games)
July 04 - Attack on Titan 2: Final Battle (Koei Tecmo)
July 04 - Clannad (Prototype)
July 04 - PixArk (Spike Chunsoft)
July 11 - God Eater 3 (Bandai Namco Entertainment)
July 11 - Puru-Chara Friends: Hoppe-chan to Sanrio Characters (Neos)
July 18 - Shin Hayarigami 1 & 2 Pack (Nippon Ichi Software)
July 18 - Tlicolity Eyes: Twinkle Showtime (Idea Factory)
July 18 - Touhou Genso Wanderer: Lotus Labyrinth (Unties)
July 24 - Olympic Games Tokyo 2020 - The Official Video Game (SEGA)
July 25 - AI: The Somnium Files (Spike Chunsoft)
July 25 - Kill la Kill: IF (Arc System Works)
July 25 - Rune Factory 4 Special (Marvelous)
July 26 - Fire Emblem: Three Houses (Nintendo)

AUGUST (3 games)
August 22 - Katakoi Contrast: Collection of Branch (Idea Factory)
August 29 - Raspberry Cube (iMel)
August 30 - Astral Chain (Nintendo)

SEPTEMBER (1 games)
September 19 - Jakou no Lyla: Trap of Musk (Idea Factory)

OCTOBER (0 games)

NOVEMBER (0 games)

DECEMBER (0 games)



Announced but not dated yet (may not be complete)

SPRING WINDOW
Spring 2019 - Ninjala (GungHo Online Entertainment)

SUMMER WINDOW
Summer 2019 - Daimon x Machina (Nintendo)
Summer 2019 - Marvel Ultimate Alliance 3: The Black Order (Nintendo)
Summer 2019 - Sword Art Online: Fatal Bullet Complete Edition (Bandai Namco Entertainment)

FALL WINDOW
Fall 2019 - Cardfight!! Vanguard EX (FuRyu)
Fall 2019 - Dragon Quest XI S: Echoes of an Elusive Age (Square Enix)
Fall 2019 - Pokémon Sword / Shield (The Pokémon Company)
Fall 2019 - The Alliance Alive HD Remaster (FuRyu)

WINTER WINDOW
Winter 2019 - Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games Tokyo 2020 (SEGA)
Winter 2019 - Samurai Shodown (SNK)

TBA 2019 WINDOW
TBA 2019 - Animal Crossing (tentative title) (Nintendo)
TBA 2019 - Digimon Survive (Bandai Namco Entertainment)
TBA 2019 - Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles Remastered (Square Enix)
TBA 2019 - Gensou Kissa Enchante (Idea Factory)
TBA 2019 - Inazuma Eleven: Ares no Tenbin (Level-5)
TBA 2019 - Luigi's Mansion 3 (tentative title) (Nintendo)
TBA 2019 - Omega Labyrinth Life (D3 Publisher)
TBA 2019 - Romancing SaGa 3 (Square Enix)
TBA 2019 - SD Gundam Generation Cross Rays (Bandai Namco Entertainment)
TBA 2019 - The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening (Nintendo)

TBA 2020 WINDOW
TBA 2020 - N1RV Ann-A (Playism)
TBA 2020 - Rune Factory 5 (Marvelous)
TBA 2020 - Shironeko New Project (tentative title) (Colopl)

TBA WINDOW
TBA - Amnesia for Nintendo Switch (Idea Factory)
TBA - Anonymous;Code (5pb.)
TBA - Bayonetta 3 (Nintendo)
TBA - Birushanah Senki: Genpeiden (Idea Factory)
TBA - Derby Stallion (tentative title) (Kadokawa Games)
TBA - Hakuoki Shinkai: Gekikage no Shou / Ginsei no Shou (Idea Factory)
TBA - Hyper Sports R (Konami)
TBA - LoverPretend (Idea Factory)
TBA - Mary Skelter 2 (Compile Heart)
TBA - Metroid Prime 4 (Nintendo)
TBA - Nil Admirari no Tenbin: Olympia Soiree (Idea Factory)
TBA - Ninja Box (Bandai Namco Entertainment)
TBA - Piofiore no Banchou: Ricordo (Idea Factory)
TBA - Sengoku Night Blood (Idea Factory)
TBA - Shin Megami Tensei V (Atlus)
TBA - Ushiro (Level-5)

Click to shrink...

 

[CloudCircus]

Dragon's Dogma for the Switch is selling out everywhere, including Amazon. I am predicting 100k units sold for its first week.

 

[Zedark]

Dragon's Dogma for the Switch is selling out everywhere, including Amazon. I am predicting 100k units sold for its first week.

Click to shrink...

I... doubt that. It's never actually reached any high ranking anywhere from what I have seen. Seems more like a case of very low expectations being outperformed.

The PS4 port did 12k, an even later port doing the same on Switch would be a great performance already.

 

[CloudCircus]

I... doubt that. It's never actually reached any high ranking anywhere from what I have seen. Seems more like a case of very low expectations being outperformed.

The PS4 port did 12k, an even later port doing the same on Switch would be a great performance already.

Click to shrink...

yeah that could be the case. Let's look forward to next week.

 

[Chris1964]

hardware (in millions)

+----+--------+--------+--------+--------+
|    |       3DS       |       NSW       |
+----+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| Q4 |  1,06  |  1,06  |  0,60  |  0,60  |
+----+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| Q1 |  0,21  |  1,27  |  0,52  |  1,12  |
| Q2 |  0,86  |  2,13  |  0,83  |  1,95  |
| Q3 |  2,53  |  4,66  |  1,77  |  3,72  |
| Q4 |  1,19  |  5,85  |  0,66  |  4,38  |
+----+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| Q1 |  0,92  |  6,76  |  0,50  |  4,89  |
| Q2 |  1,17  |  7,94  |  0,64  |  5,52  |
| Q3 |  2,95  | 10,88  |  2,22  |  7,74  |
| Q4 |  0,65  | 11,54  |  0,49  |  8,23  |
+----+--------+--------+--------+--------+

software (in millions)

+----+--------+--------+--------+--------+
|    |       3DS       |       NSW       |
+----+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| Q4 |  2,18  |  2,18  |  0,89  |  0,89  |
+----+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| Q1 |  1,03  |  3,21  |  1,56  |  2,45  |
| Q2 |  0,80  |  4,01  |  3,70  |  5,26  |
| Q3 |  6,27  | 10,28  |  4,56  |  9,82  |
| Q4 |  3,03  | 13,31  |  3,33  | 13,15  |
+----+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| Q1 |  2,96  | 16,26  |  2,95  | 16,10  |
| Q2 |  4,10  | 20,37  |  4,20  | 20,31  |
| Q3 |  9,01  | 29,38  | 10,03  | 30,33  |
| Q4 |  5,09  | 34,47  |  4,30  | 34,64  |
+----+--------+--------+--------+--------+

hardware + software (in millions)

+-----+---------+----------+
| SYS |    HW   |    SW    |
+-----+---------+----------+
| GMB |   32,47 |   157,06 |
| GBA |   16,96 |    73,11 |
| NDS |   32,99 |   213,64 |
| 3DS |   25,18 |   136,95 |
+-----+---------+----------+
| FCM |   19,35 |   225,86 |
| SFC |   17,17 |   194,85 |
| N64 |    5,54 |    39,75 |
| GCN |    4,04 |    27,54 |
| WII |   12,75 |    75,83 |
| WIU |    3,34 |    15,35 |
+-----+---------+----------+
| NSW |    8,23 |    34,64 |
+-----+---------+----------+

 

[Chris1964]

Mario Party top sellers

[NDS] Mario Party DS <ETC> (Nintendo) {2007.11.08} (¥4.571) - 2.150.000
[WII] Mario Party 8 <ETC> (Nintendo) {2007.07.26} (¥5.524) - 1.560.000
[NSW] Super Mario Party <ETC> (Nintendo) {2018.10.05} (¥5.980) - 1.220.000
[N64] Mario Party 2 <ETC> (Nintendo) {1999.12.17} (¥5.800) - 1.070.000


Mario Kart

[NDS] Mario Kart DS <RCE> (Nintendo) {2005.12.08} (¥4.571) - 4.010.000
[WII] Mario Kart Wii <RCE> (Nintendo) {2008.04.10} (¥5.524) - 3.850.000
[SFC] Super Mario Kart <RCE> (Nintendo) {1992.08.27} (¥8.900) - 3.820.000
[3DS] Mario Kart 7 <RCE> (Nintendo) {2011.12.01} (¥4.571) - 3.080.000
[NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe <RCE> (Nintendo) {2017.04.28} (¥5.980) - 2.570.000
[WIU] Mario Kart 8 <RCE> (Nintendo) {2014.05.29} (¥5.700) - 1.300.000
[GCN] Mario Kart: Double Dash!! <RCE> (Nintendo) {2003.11.07} (¥5.524) - 845.753 (Media Create)
[GBA] Mario Kart: Super Circuit <RCE> (Nintendo) {2001.07.21} (¥4.571) - 709.263 (Media Create)

+----+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+
|    |   [NDS]  |   [WII]  |   [3DS]  |   [WIU]  |   [NSW]  |
| FY |   MKDS   |   MKWii  |    MK7   |    MK8   |   MK8DX  |
|    |2005.12.08|2008.04.10|2011.12.01|2014.05.29|2017.04.28|
+----+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+
| 05 |1.300.000 |          |          |          |          |
| 06 |  990.000 |          |          |          |          |
| 07 |  830.000 |          |          |          |          |
| 08 |  400.000 |2.300.000 |          |          |          |
| 09 |  210.000 |  430.000 |          |          |          |
| 10 |  150.000 |  530.000 |          |          |          |
| 11 |  130.000 |  370.000 |1.660.000 |          |          |
| 12 |          |  140.000 |  400.000 |          |          |
| 13 |          |   80.000 |  300.000 |          |          |
| 14 |          |          |  200.000 |1.050.000 |          |
| 15 |          |          |  180.000 |  250.000 |          |
| 16 |          |          |  120.000 |          |          |
| 17 |          |          |  150.000 |          |1.680.000 |
| 18 |          |          |   70.000 |          |  890.000 |
+----+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+
|    |4.010.000 |3.850.000 |3.080.000 |1.300.000 |2.570.000 |
+----+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+

The Legend of Zelda top sellers

[FCM] The Legend of Zelda |Disc System| <ADV> (Nintendo) {1986.02.21} (¥2.600) - 1.690.000
[FCM] Zelda II: The Adventure of Link |Disc System| <ADV> (Nintendo) {1987.01.14} (¥2.600) - 1.610.000
[NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild <ADV> (Nintendo) {2017.03.03} (¥6.980) - 1.560.000
[WIU] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild <ADV> (Nintendo) {2017.03.03} (¥6.980) - 120.000*
[N64] The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time <ADV> (Nintendo) {1998.11.21} (¥6.800) - 1.460.000
[SFC] The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past _Retail/Nintendo Power_ <ADV> (Nintendo) {1991.11.21} (¥8.000) - 1.160.000

The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild

+----+----------+----------+
|    |    NSW   |    WIU   |
+----+----------+----------+
| Q4 |  390.000 |  120.000 |
| Q1 |  210.000 |          |
| Q2 |   80.000 |          |
| Q3 |  220.000 |          |
| Q4 |  190.000 |          |
|Q1+2|  200.000 |          |
| Q3 |  170.000 |          |
| Q4 |  100.000 |          |
+----+----------+----------+
|    |1.560.000 |  120.000*|
+----+----------+----------+

*Media Create Sales: CY 2017 (2017 Jan 02 - 2017 Dec 31)

039./000. [WIU] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild <ADV> (Nintendo) {2017.03.03} (¥6.980) - 159.401 / NEW (44.602 <82,93%>)


Super Smash Bros.

[NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate <FTG> (Nintendo) {2018.12.07} (¥7.200) - 3.530.000
[3DS] Super Smash Bros. for Nintendo 3DS <FTG> (Nintendo) {2014.09.13} (¥5.200) - 2.880.000 (Media Create + digital)
[WII] Super Smash Bros. Brawl <FTG> (Nintendo) {2008.01.31} (¥6.476) - 2.509.467 (Media Create)
[N64] Super Smash Bros. <FTG> (Nintendo) {1999.01.21} (¥5.800) - 1.970.000
[GCN] Super Smash Bros. Melee <FTG> (Nintendo) {2001.11.21} (¥6.476) - 1.510.000
[WIU] Super Smash Bros. for Wii U <FTG> (Nintendo) {2014.12.06} (¥7.200) - 920.000 (Media Create + digital)


3d Mario

[NSW] Super Mario Odyssey <ACT> (Nintendo) {2017.10.27} (¥5.980) - 2.250.000
[3DS] Super Mario 3D Land <ACT> (Nintendo) {2011.11.03} (¥4.571) - 2.187.063 (Media Create)
[N64] Super Mario 64 <ACT> (Nintendo) {1996.06.23} (¥9.800) - 1.920.000
[NDS] Super Mario 64 DS <ACT> (Nintendo) {2004.12.02} (¥4.571) - 1.290.000
[WII] Super Mario Galaxy 2 <ACT> (Nintendo) {2010.05.27} (¥5.524) - 1.070.000
[WII] Super Mario Galaxy <ACT> (Nintendo) {2007.11.01} (¥5.524) - 1.030.000
[GCN] Super Mario Sunshine <ACT> (Nintendo) {2002.07.19} (¥6.476) - 827.288 (Media Create)
[WIU] Super Mario 3D World <ACT> (Nintendo) {2013.11.21} (¥5.700) - 754.402 (Media Create)

 

[m051293]

So BOTW NSW +Wii U (MC as of 12/31/17) has exceeded highest reported figure of TLOZ to become #1 in Japan.

 

[Chris1964]

MK8DX is on track to top 4m lifetime sales.

Breath of the Wild is officially the best selling Zelda in Japan too, soon this will be achieved with only Switch version.

 

[Nuclear Muffin]

Jesus! BOTW actually beat Zelda 1!? Absolutely insane!

And MKDS is not an impossible target for MK8dx anymore! (When combining both Switch and Wii U versions, it's basically there already!)

Nuts!

Animal Crossing New Leaf had better watch out...

 

[Chris1964]

Minimum sales for Octopath Traveler in Japan are 330k.

 

[Nuclear Muffin]

So... Persona 5 Scramble? Can it break the downward trend of Musou titles in Japan?

 

[ItsOKAY]

Great numbers all around. Thanks for the work Chris1964!

 

[Chris1964]

Super Mario Party has serious chances to overtake Mario Party 8. Mario Party DS looks untouchable.

 

[CeroMiedo]

So... Persona 5 Scramble? Can it break the downward trend of Musou titles in Japan?

Click to shrink...

Lol I don't think so

 

[Fisico]

So... Persona 5 Scramble? Can it break the downward trend of Musou titles in Japan?

Click to shrink...

Depends of what trend you're talking about, when going with a new fresh crossover, numbers are often fine if the IP they crossover with has good appeal.

Now P5 Scramble 2, if it happens to exist in the future, 0 reason to expect it wouldn't face huge decline from the first entry.

Now about P5S potential it's quite limited.

A multi million seller IP like Dragon Quest fell in the 600-800k range with their musou offering, One Piece one of the biggest manga IP ever fell short of 1M at its peak in 2012, Hokutou no Ken reach half a million for its big revival in 2010, Zelda with Hyrule Warriors didn't reach 200k, Fire Emblem fell short of 200k as well.

Musou fatigue is big and Persona is, to some degree, comparable to Fire Emblem and eventually Zelda, so a a range of 150-250k is a safe bet for Scramble which has the benefit of having good platforms to release on and being the first notable spin-off of Persona 5 which represents the IP peak popularity.

Split should be favourable to PS4 SKU as usual.

 

[Avada Kedavra]

Is Nintendo reliable though?

Let's wait for Famitsu to confirm.

Click to shrink...

Smash Ultimate sell-through after 8 weeks: 3.32M
Retail: 2.764.751
Digital: 3.320.000 - 2.764.751 = 555.249

Smash Ultimate shipped as of March 31st 2019: 3.53M
Retail: 2.993.955
Digital: 3.530.000 - 2.993.955 = 536.045

Shrinking digital sales according to reliable Nintendo information.

 

[Fisico]

Smash Ultimate sell-through after 8 weeks: 3.32M
Retail: 2.764.751
Digital: 3.320.000 - 2.764.751 = 555.249

Smash Ultimate shipped as of March 31st 2019: 3.53M
Retail: 2.993.955
Digital: 3.530.000 - 2.993.955 = 536.045

Shrinking digital sales according to reliable Nintendo information.

Click to shrink...

Or shrinking leftover stock at retail because, you know, sales are slowing down?

EDIT : Wait is your first number really sell-through? Does Nintendo ever give sell-through numbers ?

 

[Avada Kedavra]

Or shrinking leftover stock at retail because, you know, sales are slowing down?

EDIT : Wait is your first number really sell-through? Does Nintendo ever give sell-through numbers ?

Click to shrink...

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2019/190201_2e.pdf

Page 5.

*Sales through week 8 after release of Super Smash Bros. Ultimate sales/Includes bundles and digital sales. Source: Media Create, Nintendo

 

[Saicho]

Click to shrink...

I'm trying to understand why there is 13th dot for both FY17 and FY18?

Smash Ultimate sell-through after 8 weeks: 3.32M
Retail: 2.764.751
Digital: 3.320.000 - 2.764.751 = 555.249

Smash Ultimate shipped as of March 31st 2019: 3.53M
Retail: 2.993.955
Digital: 3.530.000 - 2.993.955 = 536.045

Shrinking digital sales according to reliable Nintendo information.

Click to shrink...

what is the super reliable Famitsu digital estimate for Smash Ultimate?

 

[fiendcode]

Smash Ultimate sell-through after 8 weeks: 3.32M
Retail: 2.764.751
Digital: 3.320.000 - 2.764.751 = 555.249

Smash Ultimate shipped as of March 31st 2019: 3.53M
Retail: 2.993.955
Digital: 3.530.000 - 2.993.955 = 536.045

Shrinking digital sales according to reliable Nintendo information.

Click to shrink...

Nintendo uses Mediacreate for sell-through in Japan, perhaps that accounts for the difference when comparing to Famitsu data?

 

[Deleted member 31092]

I'm trying to understand why there is 13th dot for both FY17 and FY18?

Click to shrink...

There are 52 weeks in a year. 52:4=13. 13 weeks each quarter. Roughly.

 

[Saicho]

Nintendo uses Mediacreate for sell-through in Japan, perhaps that accounts for the difference when comparing to Famitsu data?

Click to shrink...

He used Media Create's data from Week 13

There are 52 weeks in a year. 52:4=13. 13 weeks each quarter. Roughly.

Click to shrink...

Thanks. I completely misread the chart. thought it's Q1 which 1-3 means month.

 

[fiendcode]

^
He used Media Create's data from Week 13

Click to shrink...

Oh, weird.

 

[Lite_Agent]

Split should be favourable to PS4 SKU as usual.

Click to shrink...

That's quite the understatement. Not really sure what the audience is for that game on Switch. Quite puzzled myself.

EDIT : Wait is your first number really sell-through? Does Nintendo ever give sell-through numbers ?

Click to shrink...

They sometimes share those, though generally during the investor briefing (so tomorrow) or in PR.

 

[sfortunato]

Tropical Freeze was definitely a success story. It is doubling the original release and might have some more legs.

 

[KillerMan91]

@Fularu: Seems I was pretty much right on the money regarding of hw shipments for Q4 (though even I thought that they will beat their estimate).

 

[Chris1964]

Switch is at 70% of 3DS hardware in Japan and has sold the same software. Things will be closer at hardware race this year with price drops and revisions.

 

[Chris1964]

3DS Q4 Japan

hw - 30k
sw - 310k

 

[Lite_Agent]

Marvel Ultimate Alliance 3 also launching on July 19th in Japan. Pre-orders opening today it seems.

 

[Mory Dunz]

Minimum sales for Octopath Traveler in Japan are 330k.

Click to shrink...

not bad

 

[foxuzamaki]

Havent seen this new thread at all in the past 2 days

 

[casiopao]

Marvel Ultimate Alliance 3 also launching on July 19th in Japan. Pre-orders opening today it seems.

Click to shrink...

Will be interesting to see if Endgame hype will help push this game here.

 

[Chris1964]

Unlike previous collaborations Nintendo takes over the publishing of Marvel Ultimate Alliance 3 in Japan too.