Media Create Sales: Week 16, 2021 (Apr 19 - Apr 25)

[Deleted member 2791]

Then there's no further evidence this forecast for Japan was made in line with what is actually happening.

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As I said twice, it's from May 2020, at a time when we didn't know when the PS5 would release, what its price would be or how would it even look. There are multiple reasons why they would forecast the PS5 version that low taking into account these unknowns.

But this is what Capcom forecasted for RE8 a year ago. 610k copies sold in Japan over the first three months. That's the key figure here regardless of the PS5 share. And it's not unreasonable that they thought so a year ago since RE2 did almost half a million and they were expecting growth worldwide. Point of me sharing this is that, it will do much less than that.

 

[Lelouch0612]

As I said twice, it's from May 2020, at a time when we didn't know when the PS5 would release, what its price would be or how would it even look. There are multiple reasons why they would forecast the PS5 version that low taking into account these unknowns.

But this is what Capcom forecasted for RE8 a year ago. 610k copies sold in Japan over the first three months. That's the key figure here regardless of the PS5 share. And it's not unreasonable that they thought so a year ago since RE2 did almost half a million and they were expecting growth worldwide. Point of me sharing this is that, it will do much less than that.

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650k no ?

 

[Gartooth]

Crazy that they expected over 600k for Village in Japan a year ago. I thought Capcom knew 1st person RE would be unpopular there? IDK maybe the performance of the remakes had them more optimistic.

 

[Pooroomoo]

Yeah 40k essentially lifetime PS5 copies is a ridiculous bomb. Did they expect to have RE8 out before the PS5 or something at one point?

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40k is ridiculous either way, but it was not a lifetime forecast, it was for the first 3 months

 

[MegaXZero]

40k is ridiculous either way, but it was not a lifetime forecast, it was for the first 3 months

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You wouldn't get noticeable sales after three months for this type of game, especially with that lowball. Hence it would essentially be lifetime.

 

[hussien-11]

A possible explanation is that they thought PS5 would be delayed in Japan much like PS4.

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No way a company like Capcom don't know PS's plans in Japan.

Wasn't it rumored the game was originally planned for March or something? if it was planned earlier then maybe the split makes sense, because install base of PS5 would be too low.

The odd number is whats happening with PS4 actually, it did really collapse faster than anyone expected or anticipated in Japan.

 

[Oregano]

That kind of split only makes sense if they thought PS5/Resi 8 on PS5 was launching after Resident Evil 8 on PS4 because 40k is low enough that a launch day game could do that much.

 

[Spiegel]

There's no point in arguing about that forecast when it has the PS4 version selling 610k in three months.

 

[skullwaker]

There's no point in arguing about that forecast when it has the PS4 version selling 610k in three months.

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Yeah I'm not sure why the 40k PS5 figure is the point of contention when this is ridiculous enough on its own.

 

[Deleted member 2791]

650k no ?

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Yeah.

No way a company like Capcom don't know PS's plans in Japan.

Wasn't it rumored the game was originally planned for March or something? if it was planned earlier then maybe the split makes sense, because install base of PS5 would be too low.

The odd number is whats happening with PS4 actually, it did really collapse faster than anyone expected or anticipated in Japan.

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The numbers I talked about were for a release in April.

Perhaps the decision to launch WW was last minute. You saw how little stocks there were for Japan at launch.

Or perhaps it's just weird forecasts from Capcom. Wouldn't be the first time.

 

[Man God]

Sounds like RE8 was going to be late for the PS Eight 5.

 

[foxuzamaki]

Hopefully capcom isn't getting too big for their britches again

 

[RPGamer2]

From Dusk's tweet during November 2020, we know that sales expectations for RE8 is 11 million by March 2025

We also know from Capcom's press release in June 2020 to celebrate the Resident Evil series crossing 100 million, it was mentioned that more than 80% of the games sales are outside Japan.

We also know that those sales include the totals of when the game was at its peak (in Japan) in the late 90s - 2012ish and now that split is more in the 90%+ territory for the west

So just talking baselines, the 11 million and using a middle ground of 90% (which I'm being extremely generous), you are looking at 1.1 million copies (physical and digital) over four years between the PS4/PS5/Xbox Series S|X and PC in Japan. That's reasonable. Anything over would be considered a win, anything less would fall into what I deem would be the real expectation of the game for this region (~5% of sales; 550k over four years, ~75% PS ~25%PC .01% X|S).

My predication for the PS5 version of the game being launch/year PS4 Ishin! is reasonable (80/137) and I'm not trying to overstate the game for a county where the game is not that popular anymore.

 

[Chris1964]

For those who wonder why Super Noda Game Party became so popular at eShop:

All 100 e-book titles are half price! Let's go find a new you. Spring half-price sale held - Japan NEWS

Discover Twenty One Co., Ltd. All 100 e-book titles are half price! Let’s go find a new you. Spring half-price sale held Discover Twenty One Co., Ltd. (Headquarters: Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, President: Naomi Taniguchi) will be open for 28 days from March 1 to March 28, 2023 at 7 online bookstores...

re-how.net

___

Kayac (RXN -Raijin-) and Japanese comedian Noda Crystal have begun crowdfunding on the website SILKHAT for Super Noda Game Party for Nintendo Switch with the goal of ¥4,000,000 almost achieved at time of posting. The game is planned to release in March 2021 and includes former Bandai Namco employee Hiroyuki Goto, whose past credits include Kotoba no Puzzle: Mojipittan.

https://japanesenintendo.com/2020/07/22/aggelos-and-more-coming-to-japan/#more-128105

 

[LostCauseUnite!]

....are we glossing over the first person game doing over 500k on the PS4 In Japan?

PS5, sure, but the PS4 number seems... oddly high.

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

People keep bringing up 1st person being a problem for RE, but if that were the problem wouldn't RE2 and RE3 be significantly higher than RE7?

Seems like the standard drop for almost all Playstation franchises.

 

[Deleted member 63122]

People keep bringing up 1st person being a problem for RE, but if that were the problem wouldn't RE2 and RE3 be significantly higher than RE7?

Seems like the standard drop for almost all Playstation franchises.

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They are still remakes and Japan is not very keen on remakes, remasters or rereleases.

 

[Chris1964]

Since there's only one week left and RE8 doesn't look to gain interest among Japanese there are 2 things to watch.

If it will open lower than 200k at retail and if PS4/PS5 ratio will exceed 2:1.

 

[schuelma]

Since there's only one week left and RE8 doesn't look to gain interest among Japanese there are 2 things to watch.

If it will open lower than 200k at retail and if PS4/PS5 ratio will exceed 2:1.

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yes to both IMO

 

[Deleted member 63122]

Since there's only one week left and RE8 doesn't look to gain interest among Japanese there are 2 things to watch.

If it will open lower than 200k at retail and if PS4/PS5 ratio will exceed 2:1.

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What about Snap?

 

[Chris1964]

It really doesn't matter what the actual reason is, though its probably all those and something else. What really matters is how poorly PS5 software is doing. Chris brings it up each and every week but these numbers are worse than the XBOX/360 so far and make the Wii U look like a juggernaut of software

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Wii U weekly total software sales had fallen at 10k at that point, similar with PS5 this week, but the difference is PS5 sells 4 times more hardware and after 24 weeks they still haven't matched the amount of software Wii U sold at its launch.

 

[Chris1964]

What about Snap?

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We know that at eShop pre-orders + Friday sales are bigger than 30k.

Returnal is PS5 first "big" exclusive but with console's current status expectations are very low, maybe 10-20k opening.

Original Pokemon Snap opened at 100k and ended around half million, the new one should beat both of these.

Click to shrink...

 

[Oregano]

yes to both IMO

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If Comg is representative neither will even be close. Resident Evil 3 was at 114 points a week before release and opened at 189k on Famitsu. Village is only at 83 with the four versions on their charts. If that kind of ratio held true we would be looking at at debut around ~150k.

Out of those 83pts, 61pt are for the PS4 version. If that is representative we'd be looking at ~75% of copies sold being for PS4. So that 150k would break down at ~112.5k for PS4 and 37.5k for PS5.

I think perhaps Comg isn't completely representative though. I could easily see something like ~130k/50k for ~180k total.

 

[schuelma]

I think perhaps Comg isn't completely representative though. I could easily see something like ~130k/50k for ~180k total.

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Yes that's generally what I am thinking..maybe even a bit more skewed towards PS4.

 

[Lelouch0612]

Too early to tell whether ComG is representative for PS5 software numbers.

 

[Man God]

PS5 fans are very energized. For every Point on COMG PS5 fans buy 100,000 copies each, and return every Switch game they own.

 

[zero_suit]

Wii U weekly total software sales had fallen at 10k at that point, similar with PS5 this week, but the difference is PS5 sells 4 times more hardware and after 24 weeks they still haven't matched the amount of software Wii U sold at its launch.

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Damn

 

[LostCauseUnite!]

PS5 fans are very energized. For every Point on COMG PS5 fans buy 100,000 copies each, and return every Switch game they own.

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The switch will save PS5 in japan /s

 

[Pooroomoo]

Since there's only one week left and RE8 doesn't look to gain interest among Japanese there are 2 things to watch.

If it will open lower than 200k at retail and if PS4/PS5 ratio will exceed 2:1.

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Will both versions have the same price?

 

[Chris1964]

Top 30

Famitsu Sales: Week 17, 2013 (Apr 22 - Apr 28)
PS3 - 10
3DS - 9
360 - 5
PSV - 3
PSP - 2
WII - 1

Famitsu Sales: Week 17, 2014 (Apr 21 - Apr 27)
3DS - 14
PS3 - 6
WIU - 4
PSV - 3
PSP - 2
PS4 - 1

Famitsu Sales: Week 17, 2015 (Apr 20 - Apr 26)
3DS - 9
PS4 - 7
PSV - 6
PS3 - 5
WIU - 2
PSP - 1

Famitsu Sales: Week 17, 2016 (Apr 18 - Apr 24)
3DS - 9
PS4 - 8
PSV - 6
WIU - 5
PS3 - 1
PSP - 1

Famitsu Sales: Week 17, 2016 (Apr 18 - Apr 24)
3DS - 9
PS4 - 8
PSV - 6
WIU - 5
PS3 - 1
PSP - 1

Famitsu Sales: Week 17, 2017 (Apr 17 - Apr 23)
PS4 - 12
3DS - 9
NSW - 6
PSV - 2
WIU - 1

Famitsu Sales: Week 17, 2018 (Apr 23 - Apr 29)
NSW - 13
PS4 - 11
PSV - 4
3DS - 2

Famitsu Sales: Week 17, 2019 (Apr 22 - Apr 28)
NSW - 21
PS4 - 8
PSV - 1

Famitsu Sales: Week 17, 2020 (Apr 20 - Apr 26)
NSW - 20
PS4 - 10

Famitsu Sales: Week 17, 2021 (Apr 19 - Apr 25)
NSW - 25
PS4 - 4
PS5 - 1

 

[Chris1964]

This has been mentioned before but since Nintendo FY2021 results are at Thursday it's more clear now that Sony couldn't have a better chance to become the clear leader again in Japan with PS4. They had a 3 years window from 2014 to 2016 with Nintendo being at one of its weakest periods ever and majority of Japanese third parties abandoning 3DS and supporting only PS4. That market didn't follow when almost everything was in favour of them will become even more obvious next years how much this weakened PlayStation brand now that almost everything is in favour of Nintendo.

Nintendo 1983 to 2020. FY2020 is until September

Click to shrink...

 

[LostCauseUnite!]

The GMB colors are really difficult to discern at first versus the SFC color unless looking very closely to see that one is a more indigo blue and the other is more like sea blue, or they are just slightly different shades that it isn't obvious at first glance, for anyone looking at the hardware chart^



Also as it wasn't posted here, this is relevant for knowing Konami's plans later this year, or lack of knowing at the same time at a single moment in time:



They were showing up to E3 before I believe? If not, I apologize but we will know more about them basically later this year just not at E3

 

[Lelouch0612]

This has been mentioned before but since Nintendo FY2021 results are at Thursday it's more clear now that Sony couldn't have a better chance to become the clear leader again in Japan with PS4. They had a 3 years window from 2014 to 2016 with Nintendo being at one of its weakest periods ever and majority of Japanese third parties abandoning 3DS and supporting only PS4. That market didn't follow when almost everything was in favour of them will become even more obvious next years how much this weakened PlayStation brand now that almost everything is in favour of Nintendo.

Click to shrink...

The situation was already not great at the start of 2020 but the combination of Capcom's arrival on Switch (MHR, MHS2 with even more to come) coupled to Konami's resurgence and full pivot to Switch accelerated the trend even more.

Timing couldn't have been worse for PlayStation too.

 

[Celine]

This has been mentioned before but since Nintendo FY2021 results are at Thursday it's more clear now that Sony couldn't have a better chance to become the clear leader again in Japan with PS4. They had a 3 years window from 2014 to 2016 with Nintendo being at one of its weakest periods ever and majority of Japanese third parties abandoning 3DS and supporting only PS4. That market didn't follow when almost everything was in favour of them will become even more obvious next years how much this weakened PlayStation brand now that almost everything is in favour of Nintendo.

Click to shrink...

40 million software sold on Switch in the fiscal year here we come.

 

[Chris1964]

PlayStation hardware looks that it will stop the decline this year.

Unless RE8 pulls a miracle first half software is heading to be the weakest ever by a good amount and with what is known for H2, full CY software won't avoid another new negative record.

PlayStation hardware

PlayStation software (2014-2019 is from Media Create)
1*: [PS1] Software Sales {1994.12.03}
2*: [PS2] Software Sales {2000.03.04}
3*: [PSP] Software Sales {2004.12.12}
4*: [PS3] Software Sales {2006.11.11}
5*: [PSV] Software Sales {2011.12.17}
6*: [PS4] Software Sales {2014.02.22}
7*: [PS5] Software Sales {2020.11.12}

Click to shrink...

 

[YasuYone]

Wii U weekly total software sales had fallen at 10k at that point, similar with PS5 this week, but the difference is PS5 sells 4 times more hardware and after 24 weeks they still haven't matched the amount of software Wii U sold at its launch.

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That is crazy. And backwards compatible cant be an excuse because Wii U also had it for Wii Games.

 

[Oregano]

Hideki Yasuda has his monthly piece up

【月間総括】「モンスターハンターライズ」の成功から見るカプコンの経営戦略

　今月は，「モンスターハンターライズ」（以下，ライズ）の話をしたい。ライズはカプコンから発表があったように，発売から3日で400万本，10日で500万本の売上となった。　これは，初動が「MONSTER…

jp.gamesindustry.biz

Mostly about Capcom and Monster Hunter Rise. He makes a point that whilst digital adoption has grown there are still consumers who prefer physical media and undershipment of physical copies can still mean lost sales.

Also a bit about the decline of TV ownership in Japan, with almost a quarter of 30-39 yo not owning a TV as of this past year. Mentions that the current demand for PS5 hardware is likely fueled by the lifestyle change during pandemic necessitating more time spent at home, and not from demand for Ps5 software. Not really what that means for the future though.

PlayStation hardware looks that it will stop the decline this year.

Unless RE8 pulls a miracle first half software is heading to be the weakest ever by a good amount and with what is known for H2, full CY software won't avoid another new negative record.

Click to shrink...

I wonder if they'll ship enough to have the best year for PS hardware since 2017.

 

[foxuzamaki]

Hideki Yasuda has his monthly piece up

【月間総括】「モンスターハンターライズ」の成功から見るカプコンの経営戦略

　今月は，「モンスターハンターライズ」（以下，ライズ）の話をしたい。ライズはカプコンから発表があったように，発売から3日で400万本，10日で500万本の売上となった。　これは，初動が「MONSTER…

jp.gamesindustry.biz

Mostly about Capcom and Monster Hunter Rise. He makes a point that whilst digital adoption has grown there are still consumers who prefer physical media and undershipment of physical copies can still mean lost sales.

Also a bit about the decline of TV ownership in Japan, with almost a quarter of 30-39 yo not owning a TV as of this past year. Mentions that the current demand for PS5 hardware is likely fueled by the lifestyle change during pandemic necessitating more time spent at home, and not from demand for Ps5 software. Not really what that means for the future though.



I wonder if they'll ship enough to have the best year for PS hardware since 2017.

Click to shrink...

So, if true, the pandemic is saving the ps5 from looking even more dire than it is, tho it probably doesnt matter much to 3rd parties as software isnt selling anyways

 

[MysticGon]

Yu-Gi-Oh is running amok on COMG! and once RE8 comes out it probably sit in that top spot until it's August 12th release. If Konami goes promotion crazy over the summer things could get out of control.

 

[ILikeFeet]

Yu-Gi-Oh is running amok on COMG! and once RE8 comes out it probably sit in that top spot until it's August 12th release. If Konami goes promotion crazy over the summer things could get out of control.

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that other thread gonna be real funny

 

[Puroresu_kid]

This has been mentioned before but since Nintendo FY2021 results are at Thursday it's more clear now that Sony couldn't have a better chance to become the clear leader again in Japan with PS4. They had a 3 years window from 2014 to 2016 with Nintendo being at one of its weakest periods ever and majority of Japanese third parties abandoning 3DS and supporting only PS4. That market didn't follow when almost everything was in favour of them will become even more obvious next years how much this weakened PlayStation brand now that almost everything is in favour of Nintendo.

Click to shrink...

Yep Sony never had a better opportunity to make inroads. No way back now.

It would take nintendo doing something beyond ridiculous to see there market share decrease significantly. I know they do there own thing but I can't see them releasing something as bad as the Wii U again.

 

[foxuzamaki]

Nintendo has japan' s most popular games all on one system, its a hard scenerio to think of where they lose that, atleast anytime soon

 

[Chris1964]

40 million software sold on Switch in the fiscal year here we come.

Click to shrink...

it should happen, Switch needs a 8,31m Q4 in order to to ship 40m for FY. Last year it shipped 9,85m with Animal Crossing accounting for 3,84m of them.
___

Japanese software shipments for games with physical release of Nintendo consoles (1997 and later, there aren't detailed data before then)

>5m Q1 (Apr-Jun)
2006 NDS - 9.080.000
2007 NDS - 9.790.000
2009 NDS - 7.170.000
2010 NDS - 5.020.000
2020 NSW - 10.020.000

>6m Q2 (Jul-Sep)
2006 NDS - 11.560.000
2007 NDS - 10.220.000
2008 NDS - 8.820.000
2009 NDS - 8.570.000
2010 NDS - 7.490.000
2013 3DS - 6.070.000
2014 3DS - 6.960.000
2020 NSW - 7.760.000

>10m Q3 (Oct-Dec)
2006 NDS - 19.220.000
2007 NDS - 13.330.000
2008 NDS - 13.360.000
2013 3DS - 11.700.000
2014 3DS - 11.470.000
2018 NSW - 10.030.000
2019 NSW - 12.410.000
2020 NSW - 13.910.000

>6m Q4 (Jan-Mar)
2005 NDS - 6.840.000
2006 NDS - 9.910.000
2007 NDS - 6.550.000
2019 NSW - 9.850.000
2020 NSW - ?
___

Q4 for Switch FY 2020 is missing.

 

[zroid]

looking forward to nintendo's financial report, should be interesting

 

[Chris1964]

2006 NDS record is untouchable for both hw and sw but 2020 NSW will be second best beating 2007 NDS.

50m of software in a single fiscal year could have happened for Switch in 2020 or 2021 if digital only releases are also counted, 9m of hardware aren't happening again.

 

[Tbone5189]

NDS 9.11mil year was insane but it had a lot of stuff going for it (coming off the OG model for example), but NSW could potentially have 2nd/3rd place best FY ever. Since it's different from CY lol

5mil+ HW years Just between NDS/3DS/NSW (FY Apr-Mar)

1) 9.11mil NDS(Y2)
2) 6.36mil NDS(Y3)
3) 5.69mil 3DS(Y2)
4) 5.44mil NSW(Y4) *Missing last quarter
5) 5.21mil NSW(Y3)

FYI: keep in mind this list be different from Sell thru as NDS did 8mil and a 7mil+ year

 

[pappacone]

Resident Evil has free upgrades, maybe they will just put more PS4 copies on the shelves so even PS5 owners would buy the ps4 version?

 

[Tbone5189]

Too add to what I wrote above We could potentially see something like this in a few years lol (if NSW pro is delayed)

1) 9.11mil DS(Y2)
2) 7.50mil NSW(Y5)
3) 6.50mil NSW(Y4)
4) 6.40mil NSW(Y6)
5) 6.36mil DS(Y3)
6) 5.69mil 3DS(Y2)
7) 5.21mil NSW(Y3)

From this before 2017 (top 5)


1) 9.11mil NDS(Y2)
2) 6.36mil NDS(Y3)
3) 5.69mil 3DS(Y2)
4) 4.79mil DS(Y1)
5) 4.79mil 3DS(Y1)

 

[Oregano]

So, if true, the pandemic is saving the ps5 from looking even more dire than it is, tho it probably doesnt matter much to 3rd parties as software isnt selling anyways

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It's hard to say, especially when it's completely sold out. Personally I still find it a bit hard to believe that people would buy a PS5 for any reason and then invest in software.

 

[LostCauseUnite!]

Resident Evil has free upgrades, maybe they will just put more PS4 copies on the shelves so even PS5 owners would buy the ps4 version?

Click to shrink...

I think PS4 owners would gravitate to the PS4 version anyway. They are cheaper than their PS5 versions, right?