On the subject of Capcom, I think it would be interesting to talk about the sales of Monster Hunter Stories 2. Capcom has historically had some success with the kids' market (largely with Mega Man Battle Network, back in the day), which we know they attempted to replicate with the first Monster Hunter Stories.
However, that didn't quite pan out.
We know three things about Monster Hunter Stories, by virtue of its sales numbers and some educated guesses:
1. It didn't attract a large number of MH fans
2. It looked like a game aimed at children, but didn't attract a large number of children
3. It was a JRPG but also didn't attract a large number of JRPG fans
We know Capcom is attempting to address these issues with Stories 2 in various ways. One of the biggest changes is that the game's new character designs look older and a lot more like they would appeal to the typical JRPG audience. So here's a look at how the last few major JRPGs of note have sold on Switch in Japan:
I'd imagine that Capcom is looking at a lot of the same games to help forecast sales of MH Stories in Japan. Given the above figures, the strength of MH as a brand, and the Switch's ability to sell software, I think
450-500k in lifetime sales would be a reasonable estimate.
(I also think Capcom will want to push digital sales the way they have been, because that's one of their broader goals, even in Japan. So I could see digital accounting for 20-30% of sales.)
As an aside, I 100% feel this game is happening because Capcom sees overseas potential after MH World and the resurgence of the JRPG genre. I could see lifetime sales for MH Stories 2 roughly breaking down this way:
- 450,000 from Japan
- 600,000 from USA (400k on Switch; 200k on PC)
- 200,000 from Europe (100k on Switch; 100k on PC)
- 100,000 from Asia (40k on Switch; 60k on PC)
Slightly lengthy post, but given the lack of other things to discuss at the moment, I felt this would be a good time to present this stuff.