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Media Create Sales: Week 19, 2019 (May 06 - May 12)

Oct 25, 2017
15,579
That’s absolutely impossible. SMM2’s ceiling is 10 million. It’s a concept that has inherently limited appeal compared to a true, new traditional 2D Mario game.
Eh, this has a full Mario game worth of content (just in story mode alone) and there is no "new" 2D Mario game on the system yet, and I don't see there being one for at least 2-3 years. I think this is the new standard for 2D Mario and this is probably the best chance for SMM to break sales records and get reasonably close to NSMB type sales.
 
15m should be possible. We'll see. It has everything set up in it's favour as far as we know.

-Slow release period with little competition in Youtube-/Twitch-friendly games could mean that it will be an absolut social media beast. the next big streaming game i can think of is two months later with WoW Classic. You cant underestimate what that can do to a game in this day and age, especially create, share & play games.
-Mario brand
-If it's as content rich as it seems, word of mouth will be helping a lot.
-Slow release period before.
-E3 hype-boost.
 
Oct 25, 2017
7,843
Mario Maker 2+NSMBU should hit 15M+ WW pretty easily.
NSMB2 did 13M on 3DS and MM did 4M on Wii U.
2D Mario still has its pull and Mario Maker 2 will be a behemoth thanks to more lax YouTube policies, improved sharing tools, and switch’s built in screen recording.
 
Oct 25, 2017
7,843
New Dragon Quest X is coming out this year
Square-Enix have announced Dragon Quest X Ibara no Miko to Horobi no Kami Online(literally ‘The Maiden of Thorns and the God of Destruction’ for release later this year.
Wii U digital only, 3DS doesn’t need updating since it’s cloud based, Switch will get a retail release with an eShop code inside
 
However, Mario games are leggy so it has a shot at being the best selling Switch game in 2019.
It doesn't have much of a chance, this would require Pokémon massively underperforming and SMM2 significantly overperforming.

Not talking of Animal Crossing since we don't know when it's releasing, but that's another game that will have no trouble outselling SMM2.
 
Oct 25, 2017
7,442
It doesn't have much of a chance, this would require Pokémon massively underperforming and SMM2 significantly overperforming.

Not talking of Animal Crossing since we don't know when it's releasing, but that's another game that will have no trouble outselling SMM2.
Just to be clear, I am talking about sales at the end of 2019 not Lifetime.

SMM2 would have a several months lead. It is unlikely I agree but not impossible if it is heavily bundled with a revision for example.

What are your expectations for the three games at the end of 2019 ?
 
Oct 25, 2017
7,843
I don’t expect MM2 to sell over 10M WW lifetime, though I’d like to be surprised. 10M+ is A LOT of units for a single-platform game. (I’m not anticipating MK-like legs)
Switch already has 4 with Pokemon S/S is a guaranteed 5th.
Splatoon is pretty close too and might eventually get there/over 9M.
NSMB2 sold over 13M units, 10M is probably the least we could expect
 
Oct 25, 2017
9,573
The only thing I'm worrying about for the future of splatoon is its sales of the franchise going forward, if a splatoon 3 doesnt launch this gen then the next one will almost certainly be launch year of the next system which means it will crawl to possibly 10 million again instead of launching say like now where it's fw could reach 10 million and then go on to sale another 5 million(all theoretical) it may not be given the chance to grow as much as it should.
 
Oct 27, 2017
116
Gonna single-handedly compensate for slow May and June sales.

SMM2 really is the best of both worlds.

SMM1 on Wii U was great, but held back by unpopular platform.
SMM1 on 3DS was great, but missing some features, but it had a significant amount of extra content and was on popular platform.
SMM2 is massively expanded game on popular platform with all features and content.
But NSO is gonna kill its potential
/s
 
Nov 15, 2018
369
Seems like Era still underestimates the legs of Switch games (re:splatoon2).


Anyway, Super Mario Maker 2 won't sell less than New Super Mario Bros. 2. If it is the last 2D Mario on Switch and if Nintendo manages to communicate to casual gamers not interested in creating their own levels that they will still get to play a Story Mode with 100+ original Nintendo levels, then it could go anywhere from 20 (Bros3/World/Land) to 30 million (NewDS/NewWii) units worldwide.
 
Just to be clear, I am talking about sales at the end of 2019 not Lifetime.
I know, and I was too.

Sun and Moon by the end of December 2016: roughly 3.3 million units

So even if you expect that Sword and Shield will sell less (let's say just 2.5-3m units), that would be quite the feat for SMM2 to sell more than that. In fact, I believe it would be the fastest-selling Switch game after Smash, better than Splatoon 2 even.

So as I said, only way for SMM2 to end up best-selling game in 2019 would be if it overperforms, and Pokémon worryingly underperforms (anything below 2.5m), even if it's bundled.

Btw, should specify I'm expecting Sword and Shield to be released during the same week as SM.
 
My guess for the top 3 games of the year in terms of sales (Retail only):

1. Pokemon Sword/Shield -- 3-3.5M
2. Super Mario Maker 2 -- 2-2.3M
3. Animal Crossing -- 1.8-2.2M

Note that my prediction is based on the assumption (no more than that) that AC is a December game. If it launches in September or October, then I would put it at no. 2 with close to 2.5M sales.
 
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I feel like the expectations for the ne Pokemon game are already out of control. Sun&Moon managed to hit 2,9m with a November release to 22m 3DS and with a cheaper Game and Sytstem on the back of Pokemon GO. I feel like 2,5m is more realistic.
 
Nov 15, 2018
369
My guess for the top 3 games of the year in terms of sales:

1. Pokemon Sword/Shield -- 3-3.5M
2. Super Mario Maker -- 2-2.3M
3. Animal Crossing -- 1.6-2M

Note that my prediction is based on the assumption (no more than that) that AC is a December game. If it launches in September or October, then I would put it at no. 2 with close to 2.5M sales.
New Leaf sold 2.73 million units in Japan from 11/8/12 to 12/31/12 while having supply issues.
 
New Leaf sold 2.7 million units in Japan from 11/8/12 to 12/31/12 with supply constraints.
That's including digital, which was very high (800k) due to the supply constraints you mentioned. Retail (which my prediction was about) was 1.9M for that period. But you do raise a good point that unless stock issues repeat themselves, AC Switch might very well be able to do better than New Leaf. On the other hand, my prediction is based on a December release, so it also suffers from fewer weeks to sell (although the most important ones are present for the comparison). I think I will raise my prediction a bit to 1.8-2.2M, so just slightly below/on par with SMM2.
 
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Probably unrealistic, but I hope SMM2 has the biggest FW on Switch in 2019. It really feels like they took the Wii U game's winning concept and made it into the ultimate 2D Mario game.
Pokemon debut will be 3-4x as large unless it underperforms. SMM2 should be an evergreen, with relatively low first week sales compared to lifetime sales. But a 500k debut for SMM2 is not impossible, and that's absolutely huge for any game, especially one that will go on to be an evergreen.
 
Oct 25, 2017
4,868
Pokemon debut will be 3-4x as large unless it underperforms. SMM2 should be an evergreen, with relatively low first week sales compared to lifetime sales. But a 500k debut for SMM2 is not impossible, and that's absolutely huge for any game, especially one that will go on to be an evergreen.
Yeah I had no idea of the gap between those two series when I posted. lol

Anyways, still hope this game is successful next month. Looking forward to how it does in the charts for the year ahead.
 
I legit wonder if the Switch might see a small improvement WOW thanks to the Super Mario Maker 2 Direct.

Silly hope of mine, I know
Considering we don't have the actual number for last week (only the division by 2 of the sum of GW + last week), it'll be tough to determine if that will happen considering the actual numbers for the week after GW are very likely noticeably lower than this division indicates. By all accounts, the number should be really, really low. Hoping for 35k+, though (gotta keep a bit of hope)!
 
Jan 30, 2018
304
Germany
Considering we don't have the actual number for last week (only the division by 2 of the sum of GW + last week), it'll be tough to determine if that will happen considering the actual numbers for the week after GW are very likely noticeably lower than this division indicates. By all accounts, the number should be really, really low. Hoping for 35k+, though (gotta keep a bit of hope)!
Well, we still have Dengeki data to look at, which was 32,085. And my estimate for Famitsu is slightly below 32k, at 31,786.
 
Famitsu:

Nintendo Switch/32564台(累計:815万8201台)
プレイステーション4/5572台(累計:692万3645台)
プレイステーション4 Pro/3988台(116万3669台)
Xbox One X/60台(累計:15237台)
Xbox One S/52台(累計:90254台)
Newニンテンドー2DS LL(ニンテンドー2DS含む)/2160台(累計:162万1589台)
Newニンテンドー3DS LL/369台(累計:587万8028台)
プレイステーション Vita/290台(585万9958台)

Ys Celceta: 14k

https://www.famitsu.com/news/201905/22176611.html