It doesn't have inherently limited appeal. It is actually based on the huge succes of Minecraft. I think 15 million is possible.
Anything over half million can be considered a very big opening for a Mario game.
Wii U digital only, 3DS doesn't need updating since it's cloud based, Switch will get a retail release with an eShop code inside
Just to be clear, I am talking about sales at the end of 2019 not Lifetime.
Switch already has 4 with Pokemon S/S is a guaranteed 5th.
Splatoon 3 isn't releasing this fiscal year. Earliest is probably July 2020
New Leaf sold 2.73 million units in Japan from 11/8/12 to 12/31/12 while having supply issues.
That's including digital, which was very high (800k) due to the supply constraints you mentioned. Retail (which my prediction was about) was 1.9M for that period. But you do raise a good point that unless stock issues repeat themselves, AC Switch might very well be able to do better than New Leaf. On the other hand, my prediction is based on a December release, so it also suffers from fewer weeks to sell (although the most important ones are present for the comparison). I think I will raise my prediction a bit to 1.8-2.2M, so just slightly below/on par with SMM2.
Not going to happen as Pokémon releases this year. I'm more curious to see if SMM2 will have a bigger FW than the new Animal Crossing or not
Pokemon debut will be 3-4x as large unless it underperforms. SMM2 should be an evergreen, with relatively low first week sales compared to lifetime sales. But a 500k debut for SMM2 is not impossible, and that's absolutely huge for any game, especially one that will go on to be an evergreen.
Considering we don't have the actual number for last week (only the division by 2 of the sum of GW + last week), it'll be tough to determine if that will happen considering the actual numbers for the week after GW are very likely noticeably lower than this division indicates. By all accounts, the number should be really, really low. Hoping for 35k+, though (gotta keep a bit of hope)!
Yeah, you're right, Dengeki will allow direct comparison, of course, and 32k-ish should be the right ballpark. Here's hoping Switch can stave off a drop below that number.
