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Chris1964

Chris1964

SalesEra Genius
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,155
Yeah, that's what I have read.
If gamefaqs are to be believed Nintendo takes over distribution and publishing in Europe. I don't if there is any kind of involvement for NA but SE appears to be the publisher there.

Nintendo wouldn't bother if Dragon Quest XI wasn't somehow in the picture. Maybe we'll hear news for western release too.
 

Lite_Agent

Member
Oct 26, 2017
4,572
Somewhere. I think.
Didn't Nintendo pick up publishing rights for Dragon Quest Builders too at west?

They did:

1oir1l.jpg

2wno2f.jpg


https://www.nintendo.co.uk/Games/Nintendo-Switch/Dragon-Quest-Builders-1280380.html#gameDetails
https://www.nintendo.com/games/detail/dragon-quest-builders-switch

Though I'd say the fact that it's releasing a whopping month before Japan is a better "proof". Don't see any reason why Squeenix would do that if not because of Nintendo.

Regarding DQXI, I think it's safe to expect Sony and Nintendo to publish their own version, with Squeenix 'coordinating' and provide localisation. Also starting to believe we will not see DQXI on Switch until it's time for western reveal. They promised details about western release for last fall, and we got nothing in the end, so it's easy to see what was the hold up there.
 
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Charamiwa

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,056
Was it? I only remember the announcement trailer "accidentally" being reposted on the PS youtube channel before being pulled. There doesn't seem to be anything on PSblog either, which Sony social media carried it?


DQXI Switch has been talked about more recently than DQXI West. Just to keep things in perspective.
I remember the Youtube video yeah, and I assumed there was a tweet too (but maybe that was from SE). I had no idea about the removal though, that's interesting (and weird).
 

Laplasakos

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
1,275
Care to elaborate which forecast modeling are you using and the result of your analysis? Of course, since it is a rough estimate, also some measure of goodness of the forecast (you can choose which one).

I am not using any forecast modeling because in this it's case not needed. I already told you

You only have to check the PS4 games that appeared on COMG with a good number of points (50+).

If you have one though that proves me wrong then go ahead and share it with us.

How much 3DS DQ games sold in America and Europe versus PS4 entries? Possibly LTD.

I don't have exact numbers but i know for a fact that DQB did better than both DQ7 and DQ8 (LTD of course). I remember reading a post in an NPD thread. Maybe ZhugeEX can actually confirm this if he has the kindness :D
 
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Nirolak

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,660

fiendcode

Member
Oct 26, 2017
24,926
For western DQ sales I only remember the UK ranking (Builders > Heroes > VII) with the caveat that all the numbers were pathetically low (under 5k I think?). Obviously this doesn't include VIII and Heroes 2 but I can't imagine they did any better.

For US we got an NPD leak on Heroes first month being 31k but I'm not aware of anything else?

Edit: There's also global steamspy figures.

Dragon Quest Heroes 53,609 ± 7,324
Dragon Quest Heroes II 28,504 ± 5,340
 
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sfortunato

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,740
Italy
I am not using any forecast modeling because in this it's case not needed. I already told you

If you have one though that proves me wrong then go ahead and share it with us.

You were saying that COMG points can give us a rough estimate of FW sales. Of course you need a forecasting model to say that. Otherwise this is pure speculation based on no inference or basically anecdotes because of limited/bad sample and few observations.

You were also talking about "rough" estimate—what's the confidence interval?

I think you should provide us some data to back up your statement. Waiting for them.

I don't have exact numbers but i know for a fact that DQB did better than both DQ7 and DQ8 (LTD of course). I remember reading a post in an NPD thread. Maybe ZhugeEX can actually confirm this if he has the kindness :D

You know for a fact something because of some data? I mean, it might be true, but I remember someone talking about first months sales and not LTD. Also, there's also Europe and we know that, for example, in France DQ is bigger than other countries and 3DS is also big there. No other data to back up your statement?
 

Laplasakos

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
1,275
You were saying that COMG points can give us a rough estimate of FW sales. Of course you need a forecasting model to say that. Otherwise this is pure speculation based on no inference or basically anecdotes because of limited/bad sample and few observations.

You were also talking about "rough" estimate—what's the confidence interval?

I think you should provide us some data to back up your statement. Waiting for them.

Of course it's pure speculation and only my opinion. Where did i stated it was a fact anyway? I also don't think you need a forecasting model to say that or prove me right because we can simply compare the numbers and the pt. But as i said, if you have a different opinion, you can share it with us and prove me wrong (along with a forecasting model because you said need that).

You know for a fact something because of some data? I mean, it might be true, but I remember someone talking about first months sales and not LTD. Also, there's also Europe and we know that, for example, in France DQ is bigger than other countries and 3DS is also big there. No other data to back up your statement?

I... don't even know what you mean with the bolded. If we don't have data how can we know the numbers otherwise. What else should to back up my statement other than based on an accurate member that posted numbers in the past he said that the LTD of DQB was higher than both DQVII and DQVIII? I mean if ZhugeEX doesn't want to share the numbers it's totally fine, i will just have to search for that post.
 
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sfortunato

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,740
Italy
Of course it's pure speculation and only my opinion. Where did i stated it was a fact anyway? I also don't think you need a forecasting model to say that or prove me right because we can simply compare the numbers and the pt. But as i said, if you have a different opinion, you can share it with us and prove me wrong (along with a forecasting model because you said need that).

Ehm... Statistical inference is not "comparing numbers and points". Numbers and forecasting are not opinions. You wrote that COMG points give us a rough estimate of FW sales. To state that, you should need some data. Which data are you considering? You said "all games above 50 points" or something like that: do you have a list?

Also, to talk about "estimates" you must... estimate something otherwise. You're missing the obvious step to talk about estimates which is making inference using data. It's not that I have a different opinion: I just asked how you can back up your statement and to better specify what you were saying.

How does the "rough estimate" work? The "roughness" materializes as some confidence interval, I guess. How big the interval is?

You made a statement—I'm asking questions to back up what you said. Perfectly reasonable in my opinion as I'm a Metrics guy.

I... don't even know what you mean with the bolded. If we don't have data how can we know the numbers otherwise. What else should to back up my statement other than based on an accurate member that posted numbers in the past he said that the LTD of DQB was higher than both DQVII and DQVIII? I mean if ZhugeEX doesn't want to share the numbers it's totally fine, i will just have to search for that post.

You wrote you knew "for a fact" something without bringing any fact. I asked to back up your statement and you couldn't. Perfectly fine, just admit you currently don't have any data to back up a statement about data.
 

Laplasakos

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
1,275
Ehm... Statistical inference is not "comparing numbers and points". Numbers and forecasting are not opinions. You wrote that COMG points give us a rough estimate of FW sales. To state that, you should need some data. Which data are you considering? You said "all games above 50 points" or something like that: do you have a list?

Also, to talk about "estimates" you must... estimate something otherwise. You're missing the obvious step to talk about estimates which is making inference using data. It's not that I have a different opinion: I just asked how you can back up your statement and to better specify what you were saying.

How does the "rough estimate" work? The "roughness" materializes as some confidence interval, I guess. How big the interval is?

You made a statement—I'm asking questions to back up what you said. Perfectly reasonable in my opinion as I'm a Metrics guy.

I told you (and this is the 3rd time) that in my opinion we don't need something like that because you only have to look the pt of PS4 games on Comg and later compare them with FW numbers. You still keep asking the same question expecting an answer based only on your opinion (because you say you find it perfectly reasonable as a Metrics guy, whch in my opinion is totally wrong because being a metrics guy doesn't apply in every situation).

You said also made a statement

Of course you need a forecasting model to say that. Otherwise this is pure speculation based on no inference or basically anecdotes because of limited/bad sample and few observations.

This sounds as a fact. Can you back up what you said? Care to apply a forecast model on Comg to counter my opinion (which is comparing pt points with fw numbers)? Otherwise we will keep running in circles.

You wrote you knew "for a fact" something without bringing any fact. I asked to back up your statement and you couldn't. Perfectly fine, just admit you currently don't have any data to back up a statement about data.

Yes because i remember very well what i read, i am not inventing numbers only to later expose myself. I said that i will find the post and i will post it later so can you stop with the bickering? It's getting really annoying.
 

sfortunato

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,740
Italy
I told you (and this is the 3rd time) that in my opinion we don't need something like because you only have to look the pt of PS4 games on Comg and later compare them with FW numbers. You still keep asking the same question expecting an answer based only on your opinion (because you say you find it perfectly reasonable as a Metrics guy, whch in my opinion is totally wrong because being a metrics gue doesn't apply in every situation).

You said also made a statement

Ok.

Can you bring data about PS4 games COMG points and their respective FW sales (the sample you think it's most relevant) and better detail what do you mean by "rough estimate"?

I don't like when "estimates" are thrown in and then said "estimates" are made only by "looking" at data. Especially when the sample is highly non-representative.

This sounds as a fact. Can you back up what you said? Care to apply a forecast model on Comg to counter my opinion (compare pt points with fw numbers)? Otherwise we will keep running in circles

My comment wasn't about "my estimates are better than yours" or about how wrong you are. I was just asking to better detail your statement.

Also, I would not estimate a forecast model with a non-representative sample and few observations. It doesn't make sense.

Yes because i remember very well what i read, i am not inventing numbers only to later expose myself. I said that i will find the post and i will post it later so can you stop with the bickering? It's getting really annoying.

I don't know whether you are inventing something—that's why I asked to back up your statement. It's perfectly reasonable to ask for data in this situations.

Also, the post you're referring to is about one game among many (Builders among other spinoffs) and one territory, US. Even if the statement is correct it doesn't prove your original point so I think it would be a better idea to provide more data. Thanks.
 

ZhugeEX

Senior Analyst at Niko Partners
Verified
Oct 24, 2017
3,099
Thanks. I'm surprised how close Japanese mobile is getting to the US console market.

The $13.8b number is actually misleading because that number includes hardware sales rev.

So the JP Mobile games market is actually larger than the US console software market by far.
 

Laplasakos

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
1,275
The $13.8b number is actually misleading because that number includes hardware sales rev.

So the JP Mobile games market is actually larger than the US console software market by far.

Hey ZhugeEX, could you tell us if DQB on PS4 sold more than DQVII 3DS and DQVIII 3DS worldwide (LTD)? I am not asking for exact numbers just a yes or no.
 

ZhugeEX

Senior Analyst at Niko Partners
Verified
Oct 24, 2017
3,099
Hey ZhugeEX, could you tell us if DQB on PS4 sold more than DQVII 3DS and DQVIII 3DS worldwide (LTD)? I am not asking for exact numbers just a yes or no.

Worldwide? I don't know.

In the US it sold better, but not significantly so. Dragon Quest hasn't exactly been a popular franchise in the West since the PS2 era and DQ9 on DS.
 

Laplasakos

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
1,275
Worldwide? I don't know.

In the US it sold better, but not significantly so. Dragon Quest hasn't exactly been a popular franchise in the West since the PS2 era and DQ9 on DS.

Thank you.

Also, the post you're referring to is about one game among many (Builders among other spinoffs) and one territory, US. Even if the statement is correct it doesn't prove your original point so I think it would be a better idea to provide more data. Thanks.

Now you have your answer. Kinda strange how you brought up US only now though and not before. In my first post i said specifically said NPD (so not other territories) and compared DQB with DQVII and later with DQVIII so i am not sure what the ''the post you're referring to is about one game among many'' means.
 

Raijinto

self-requested ban
Banned
Oct 28, 2017
10,091
Worldwide? I don't know.

In the US it sold better, but not significantly so. Dragon Quest hasn't exactly been a popular franchise in the West since the PS2 era and DQ9 on DS.

I can tell you it's as dead as a doornail in the U.K. at least. Can't remember a single success story DQ has had here in a looong time.

It's amazing how much of an event and a nostalgia trip each DQ is in Japan but SE bungled the opportunity to create that fanfare even close anywhere else. They had good opportunities to do so, with the aforementioned 9 on DS as well as 8 on PS2 but fumbled the momentum they gained from those good sellers.

A shame, because the games are good. Not amazing or revolutionary but good definitely.
 

Laplasakos

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
1,275
I can tell you it's as dead as a doornail in the U.K. at least. Can't remember a single success story DQ has had here in a looong time.

It's amazing how much of an event and a nostalgia trip each DQ is in Japan but SE bungled the opportunity to create that fanfare even close anywhere else. They had good opportunities to do so, with the aforementioned 9 on DS as well as 8 on PS2 but fumbled the momentum they gained from those good sellers.

A shame, because the games are good. Not amazing or revolutionary but good definitely.

We know that in UK it debuted higher than DQVII based on the report. It also stayed for 2-3 weeks on charts compared to DQVII which disappeared. So unless the game sold great on digital or kept selling for a long under the charts Builders sold more in UK.
 

Nirolak

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,660
The $13.8b number is actually misleading because that number includes hardware sales rev.

So the JP Mobile games market is actually larger than the US console software market by far.
I'm actually pretty curious to see how the US mobile market evolves given the recent sea change there.

We're seeing traditional Western midcore games (the ones that directly descended from browser games like Game of War) fall off, but a strong increase in success among games targeted at women and teens. We've seen Asian products that were more considerate of that demographic existing benefit, like Love Nikki. It'll be interesting to see how Uta-no-Prince's US release does as well on that front.

We're also seeing a notable rise in the number of Japanese mobile games succeeding in the US, suggesting that there's a significant pick-up among enthusiast gamers on mobile in the US to boot. This could be a pretty lucrative opportunity for Japanese companies going forward. It helps that there's a pretty good crossover potential here too. I have to imagine a lot of people who play Dokkan Battle are also people buying FighterZ and a lot of people who play Fire Emblem Heroes are the same people who played the 3DS games. This doesn't seem as likely with more mass brands like Marvel: Contest of Champions versus Marvel vs. Capcom: Infinite, so getting your niche on one platform to also buy/spend money on your products on the other is a more probable proposition for Japanese companies looking to increase income.
 

Raijinto

self-requested ban
Banned
Oct 28, 2017
10,091
We know that in UK it debuted higher than DQVII based on the report. It also stayed for 2-3 weeks on charts compared to DQVII which disappeared. So unless the game sold great on digital or kept selling for a long under the charts Builders sold more in UK.

I'm not particularly bothered in the least about your comparisons, which is why I didn't quote you, I was talking generally about the franchise's popularity in reference to Zhuge's last sentence there.

Have fun regardless with your point of interest though I guess, as pointless as it appears to me.
 

sfortunato

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,740
Italy
Now you have your answer. Kinda strange how you brought up US only now though and not before. In my first post i said specifically said NPD (so not other territories) and compared DQB with DQVII and later with DQVIII so i am not sure what the ''the post you're referring to is about one game among many'' means.

Thanks. Unfortunately this statement doesn't say anything about your original statement, which wasn't mentioning NPD or US:

3DS DQ games also did nothing outside Japan. Builders on PS4 debuted higher than DQVII remake. Of course, NSW may change that but i honestly doubt that they won't release a PS4/Steam version in the west.

And my question, which was how DQ 3DS games outside Japan versus PS4 games.

So mentioning a partial data doesn't back up your statement.

Also, waiting about data about COMG points and FW sales, to understand your "rough estimate" better.
 

Laplasakos

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
1,275
Thanks. Unfortunately this statement doesn't say anything about your original statement, which wasn't mentioning NPD or US:

Not true and now you are moving goalposts. This was my post after you quoted me

I don't have exact numbers but i know for a fact that DQB did better than both DQ7 and DQ8 (LTD of course). I remember reading a post in an NPD thread. Maybe ZhugeEX can actually confirm this if he has the kindness :D

And now that ZhugeEX confirmed what i said you say ''So mentioning a partial data doesn't back up your statement.'' It doesn't seem that you want to admit it so i won't continue this with you.
 
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skullwaker

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,267
Pretty much. There's a huge gap in Japan and it's not like the game sold nothing in other territories, with Zhuge even saying that Builders didn't do all that much better in the US.

Makes me wonder if DQB on Switch next month could give it a new lease on life in the west. I don't expect it to set the charts on fire, but I'm interested in its performance.
 
Oct 25, 2017
15,172
Oh ok, sorry if you only care about Monster Hunter World and you don't say nothing to who post that comparation literally every day, but for some reason you are not ok with this one.

Well then, sorry for trying to point out good performance for a game i like, i need to rememb to not doing this again.
I've very visibly pointed out my problems with the constant Monster Hunter daily charts for the last two months as the people who make those charts have known. I'm not gonna stop them because there are people who want them regardless of their actual accuracy in the market. The real problem with this one is that the comparison isn't even on the chart until 20 days after you started it. So there's so much empty space that doesn't need to be there. Just do the chart when it's actually in line with when it tracked the Wii U version.

Like I've been to the Bayonetta threads, I love Bayonetta. But I'm not jumping to see how well Bayonetta is doing on COMG for a full two weeks before a different version even shows up on the charts.
 
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sfortunato

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,740
Italy
Not true and now you are moving goalposts. This was my post after you quoted me

Nope. This comment of yours is a follow-up of your initial vague statement that DQB debuted more than DQVII (no territory was specified) after the vague statement about DQ games on 3DS doing "nothing outside Japan", for which you still have to provide evidence.

And now that ZhugeEX confirmed what i said you say ''So mentioning a partial data doesn't back up your statement.'' It doesn't seem that you want to admit it so i won't continue this with you.

My initial question was: "How much 3DS DQ games sold in America and Europe versus PS4 entries? Possibly LTD." The only thing you had is LTD in one territory for one spin-off which is not really much to answer my question. Saying "i know for a fact that DQB did better than both DQ7 and DQ8 (LTD of course)" answering my question is like answering "Which countries are part of the EU" to the question "France. Kosovo... Maybe?".

Of course, I'm still waiting for a list of PS4 games COMG points + FW sales so you can better detail what you meant about "rough estimates" We can play with numbers a bit to see whether COMG points are actual predictors or not.
 

Laplasakos

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
1,275
I've very visibly pointed out my problems with the constant Monster Hunter daily charts for the last two months as the people who make those charts have known. I'm not gonna stop them because there are people who want them regardless of their actual accuracy in the market. The real problem with this one is that the comparison isn't even on the chart until 20 days after you started it. So there's so much empty space that doesn't need to be there. Just do the chart when it's actually in line with when it tracked the Wii U version.

I don't really undestand the problem with the ComG chart of MHW. I mean it's the biggest game that Japan will get for a while so obviously people are finding the chart interesting. We rarely get Comg rankings otherwise.
 
Oct 25, 2017
15,172
I don't really undestand the problem with the ComG chart of MHW. I mean it's the biggest game that Japan will get for a while so obviously people are finding the chart interesting.
Daily chart posting for two months of preorders is my main gripe about it. If it was started a month, that's more understandable to me. (The Bayonetta chart is a month off, but it's 20 days of non-comparison data)

Like even when slip-heed started doing Xenoblade comg back in November that was still only 20 days of tracking and that didn't really drag on by comparison.
 
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ILikeFeet

DF Deet Master
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
61,987
:'( :'( :'( I was talking about the silpheed game :'( :'( :'( nobody loves it :'( :'( :'(
Aerial combat games are a rare breed as it is. Ace Combat being the biggest survivor. Maybe SE can do a PC revival, but that would take catering the game to the west (at that point, what's there to lose?)
 

Gotdatmoney

Member
Oct 28, 2017
14,500
I'm never going to look up Comg! numbers myself so seeing them posted here in fancy chart form is good with me. We can just like, both enjoy the graphics and keep in mind limitations. You dont have to be all in to enjoy it or see value. Shrug
 

silpheed-mcd

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,384
Many awful ratings by famitsu :p :

Phantasy Star II: 28/40
Phantasy Star III: 24/40
Phantasy Star IV: 26/40

Shining Force: 29/40
Shining Force II: 28/40
Shining Force CD: 28/40

Gunstar Heroes: 29/40

Bare Knuckle II: 26/40

Alien Soldier: 24/40

Damn, Sega hadn't paid :p
 

ShinobiBk

One Winged Slayer
Member
Dec 28, 2017
10,121
Worldwide? I don't know.

In the US it sold better, but not significantly so. Dragon Quest hasn't exactly been a popular franchise in the West since the PS2 era and DQ9 on DS.

I can tell you it's as dead as a doornail in the U.K. at least. Can't remember a single success story DQ has had here in a looong time.

It's amazing how much of an event and a nostalgia trip each DQ is in Japan but SE bungled the opportunity to create that fanfare even close anywhere else. They had good opportunities to do so, with the aforementioned 9 on DS as well as 8 on PS2 but fumbled the momentum they gained from those good sellers.

A shame, because the games are good. Not amazing or revolutionary but good definitely.

This doesn't surprise me cause DQB was an actual new game, spinoff or nor and the 3DS games were remakes

I think they killed their momentum in the West with the MMO that was never gonna release here. Was it ultimately worth it? I know it's still going today but how popular is it?
 
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