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Piston

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,152
The Switch will not be underwhelming for Nintendo in regards to the 3DS for a multitude of reasons:

1. It has been making them money from the start, while the 3DS incurred losses on each sale after the steep price drop in 2011 for a considerable amount of time.
2. Software wise the Switch is outperforming the 3DS and is acting more like a home console than a handheld. They can also charge more for the software on the Switch than they could for the 3DS.
3. Digital sales are have become a large portion of what they pull in when compared to the 3DS.
4. They will have an additional source of income from their online subscription.
5. It has improved their brand world wide unlike the 3DS ever did.
You can compare 3DS hardware to Switch hardware sales but it's not a 1:1 comparison since 3DS sales were losing Nintendo money, Switch software is more expensive, and the eShop on Switch is making them even more money. Hardware units isn't a very useful metric on its own.
Yup, basically what I said.
 

v2_0

User requested permanent ban
Banned
Oct 28, 2017
556
Yup, basically what I said.
I agree there are other aspects to take into consideration of course but hardware sales in themselves are a very important metric to look at and no matter how great Nintendo will do otherwise from a financial standpoint for example, how much of a commercial success that system is will always matter. I mean people are comparing sales of very different system all the time and it's not like these comparisons aren't interesting. When people comment the fact that the Switch is breaking records worldwide is that meaningless? No that's interesting in itself just like it's interesting and telling to compare Switch and 3DS sales launch aligned.

And like I said it's ok to find reasons to explain its current performance like price and how much profitable it is but you have also to consider all the advantages Switch has over 3DS like the broader audience it is targeting or the biggest first party support it should have considering it's the only system Nintendo is going to rely heavily on in the coming years. That last point also probably makes the Switch's sales much more important for them than their previous systems ones. These also are all very important points.
 
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schuelma

Member
Oct 24, 2017
5,901
And like I said it's ok to find reasons to "excuse" its current performance like price and how much profitable it is but you have also to consider all the advantages Switch has over 3DS like the broader audience it is targeting or the biggest first party support it should have but also how much more important that system is for Nintendo than any other one they have release since the NES as it is the only they are going to rely heavily on from years to come.

No one is "excusing" anything because people realize its selling well and is set up for an incredibly strong second half of the year. I don't even know what you are arguing against.
 

v2_0

User requested permanent ban
Banned
Oct 28, 2017
556
No one is "excusing" anything because people realize its selling well and is set up for an incredibly strong second half of the year. I don't even know what you are arguing against.
I'm just saying that you can't just look at the pros to explain and justify (call it what you want) that situation but you have also to consider the cons too, and I don't see these arguments being mentioned here. That's it.
 

schuelma

Member
Oct 24, 2017
5,901
I'm just saying that you can't just look at the pros to explain and justify (call it what you want) that situation but you have also to consider the cons too, and I don't see these arguments being mentioned here. That's it.

There is nothing to "justify" the "situation".

You're describing the Switch like its the Wii U or PS4 in its 2nd year.
 

v2_0

User requested permanent ban
Banned
Oct 28, 2017
556
There is nothing to "justify" the "situation".

You're describing the Switch like its the Wii U or PS4 in its 2nd year.
No I'm not I'm just describing it as the successor of the 3DS which is selling nowhere near as well. No need to make hyperboles and to caricature what I'm saying. This is really tiresome.
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
The 300 people is probably all the people working on the games including TPC, Creatures Inc, Nintendo and Game Freak.
That's not what the article says, though:
Eurogamer said:
The studio, I'm told, has grown to well over three hundred people in size - it's an ambitious plan even still.
Seems to refer to Gamefreak themselves, not to the conglomerate of staff working on the game. Maybe Eurogamer misunderstood it, though, you never know with western media.
 

fiendcode

Member
Oct 26, 2017
24,903
The only "excuse" I see here is divorcing any wider context at all in order to drive a forced comparison in service of supporting an inaccurate position. Like how disingenuous can you get?
 

Deleted member 2791

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
19,054
That's not what the article says, though:

Seems to refer to Gamefreak themselves, not to the conglomerate of staff working on the game. Maybe Eurogamer misunderstood it, though, you never know with western media.

Don't we have an updated number of people working at Game Freak anyway ? Shouldn't be too hard to confirm or deny that info.
 

Cinemikel

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
2,433
No I'm not I'm just describing it as the successor of the 3DS which is selling nowhere near as well. No need to make hyperboles and to caricature what I'm saying. This is really tiresome.
I don't think Nintendo really cares, selling a 300 handheld at a profit day 1 vs undercutting themselves $80 per system only months after launch, selling just as much software, if not more at $60 a piece
 

schuelma

Member
Oct 24, 2017
5,901
4Mns + vs 6 Mns I don't think I'm, sorry.

Given the supply constraints Switch dealt with for almost a full year, I think that's hyperbolic, yes.

If Switch keeps pace with 3DS the rest of the year, do you really think anyone in Japan or anyone on this board is going to think Switch isn't doing very well?

If Switch "only" ends up selling 20 million in Japan, is anyone at Nintendo or any third party going to think it wasn't a complete success?

You lack any perspective.
 
Oct 26, 2017
20,440
Anyway, the first five months of the year for Switch were bleh worldwide with DKC and Labo and Kirby all selling 3m or less lifetime most likely and those were the only big games of the year for the Switch to start with (compared to God of War, Far Cry 5, Monster Hunter World all probably ending up selling over 5m on PS4 and Detroit probably matching Labo and the rest. And of course, Fortnite being the biggest game in the world and being on PS4 and not Switch). With this bleh lineup, the Switch sales in Europe and America have been OK (though lower than the PS4 sometimes) but they've been not great in Japan.

Hopefully H1 2019 is better for Nintendo and they can actually release Animal Crossing and StarFox Racing then (and hopefully StarFox Racing can break out sales wise).
 
OP
OP
Chris1964

Chris1964

SalesEra Genius
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,155
Nintendo software sales (Famitsu)
Code:
+-----+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
|     |         2017          |         2018          |
+-----+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
| Jan | 1.104.000 | 1.104.000 | 1.152.000 | 1.152.000 |
| Feb |   253.000 | 1.357.000 |   482.000 | 1.634.000 |
| Mar |   731.000 | 2.088.000 |   682.000 | 2.628.000 |
| Apr |   844.000 | 2.932.000 |   636.000 | 3.264.000 |
| May |   389.000 | 3.321.000 |   534.000 | 3.798.000 |
| Jun |   335.000 | 3.656.000 |           |           |
| Jul | 1.187.000 | 4.843.000 |           |           |
| Aug |   495.000 | 5.338.000 |           |           |
| Sep |   398.000 | 5.736.000 |           |           |
| Oct |   916.000 | 6.652.000 |           |           |
| Nov |   664.000 | 7.316.000 |           |           |
| Dec | 2.042.000 | 9.358.000 |           |           |
+-----+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+

2012 Nintendo software sales - 12.645.986
 

Hero

One Winged Slayer
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
6,728
I agree there are other aspects to take into consideration of course but hardware sales in themselves are a very important metric to look at and no matter how great Nintendo will do otherwise from a financial standpoint for example, how much of a commercial success that system is will always matter. I mean people are comparing sales of very different system all the time and it's not like these comparisons aren't interesting. When people comment the fact that the Switch is breaking records worldwide is that meaningless? No that's interesting in itself just like it's interesting and telling to compare Switch and 3DS sales launch aligned.

And like I said it's ok to find reasons to explain its current performance like price and how much profitable it is but you have also to consider all the advantages Switch has over 3DS like the broader audience it is targeting or the biggest first party support it should have considering it's the only system Nintendo is going to rely heavily on in the coming years. That last point also probably makes the Switch's sales much more important for them than their previous systems ones. These also are all very important points.

Hardware sales are only important relative to whether or not they are meeting the expectations that Nintendo themselves forecast to their investors, period.

PS4 has a near zero chance of ever hitting hardware sales that matched the PS2, but they are making way more money than they did during the PS2's heydays because of similar circumstances.

You are not thinking about this holistically.
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
4Mns + vs 6 Mns I don't think I'm, sorry.
Consider the following: here are the number for DS (not 3DS) for March 2005, which aligns approximately with where Switch is at in its lifetime:

January:
Nintendo DS 108,561
Nintendo DS 53,527
Nintendo DS 44,608
Nintendo DS 43,226

February:
DS 29,552
NDS 26,205
NDS: 22,363
DS 26,761

March:
DS - 25,759
Nintendo DS 26,537
DS 22,446
DS 55,825
DS 43,023

Compared to Switch January-March 2018:

January:
NSW | 146.006
NSW | 37.500
NSW | 43.027
NSW | 47.107

February:
NSW | 49.165
NSW | 43.404
NSW | 39.303
NSW | 39.696

March:
NSW | 45.083
NSW | 45.084
NSW | 54.342
NSW | 50.412
NSW | 44.033

What do we see? DS lost a lot of steam after its first full holiday. This is the biggest platform every to have been released in Japan, and it is struggling compared to what Switch and 3DS were putting out. Now, how did they remedy this? The biggest jump happened when the system got a revision, which was released in Japan in March 2006, so after 2005. How much did the DS go on to sell in 2005? 4.25M. A system that is struggling much more than Switch allegedly is did 4.25M in a year. What was the reason? Software. They released Nintendogs and Brain Training in H1, but neither had short-term effect. What carried them to do big numbers was the release of Animal Crossing and Mario Kart in preparation for the holidays. In a similar way, the Switch will have Pokémon and Smash to provide for the strong push, as well as Yo-kai watch, probably Fortnite, and many other games to push.

What I hope to show here is that what Switch is doing right now, while not impressive compared to 3DS, is a perfectly good number for slow period: it's when the second half of the year doesn't deliver in terms of sales that we should consider things underwhelming: H1 is always rather slow for most systems, even for DS, and as you can see, even the most popular system of all times could struggle when the software pickings were low, only to rebound hugely when the big games were released. The discussion about Switch numbers being underwhelming without considering the software slate ahead of us, and furthermore ignoring that 3DS sales became frontloaded due to its huge price cut, is what annoys people. There's a lot of context here that explains the situation, and choosing to ignore that in favour of a numbers-for-numbers contextless comparison makes no sense.
 

Piston

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,152
Nintendo software sales (Famitsu)
Code:
+-----+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
|     |         2017          |         2018          |
+-----+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
| Jan | 1.104.000 | 1.104.000 | 1.152.000 | 1.152.000 |
| Feb |   253.000 | 1.357.000 |   482.000 | 1.634.000 |
| Mar |   731.000 | 2.088.000 |   682.000 | 2.628.000 |
| Apr |   844.000 | 2.932.000 |   636.000 | 3.264.000 |
| May |   389.000 | 3.321.000 |   534.000 | 3.798.000 |
| Jun |   335.000 | 3.656.000 |           |           |
| Jul | 1.187.000 | 4.843.000 |           |           |
| Aug |   495.000 | 5.338.000 |           |           |
| Sep |   398.000 | 5.736.000 |           |           |
| Oct |   916.000 | 6.652.000 |           |           |
| Nov |   664.000 | 7.316.000 |           |           |
| Dec | 2.042.000 | 9.358.000 |           |           |
+-----+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+

2012 Nintendo software sales - 12.645.986

Interesting comparison there. You aren't including Pokemon Company in those totals it seems.

I think it might be tough for the 2018 to match 2017 due to having two major exclusives in the back half with Splatoon 2 and Super Mario Odyssey compared to (at this point) just Smash, but it should pull it out regardless with additional catalog sales from 2017 titles and bigger mid-tier titles like Mario Tennis Aces, Fire Emblem, and Yoshi. I doubt it hits 2012's total unless they announce another big surprise title like Animal Crossing for this year.
 
Oct 26, 2017
20,440
The original DS was also an awful piece of hardware that badly needed a revision whereas the Switch could use... a better battery and that's about it?

The Switch is a very nice piece of hardware that needs better slightly build quality and not much else...
 
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OP
Chris1964

Chris1964

SalesEra Genius
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,155
2017 was Nintendo's biggest year for software since 2012. 2018 will have no problem to exceed it.
 

Aters

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
7,948
I don't think Switch will have the LTD of 3DS in Japan. Not with that price. The rest of the world will make up for it though.
 

Guaraná

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
9,987
brazil, unfortunately
Interesting comparison there. You aren't including Pokemon Company in those totals it seems.

I think it might be tough for the 2018 to match 2017 due to having two major exclusives in the back half with Splatoon 2 and Super Mario Odyssey compared to (at this point) just Smash, but it should pull it out regardless with additional catalog sales from 2017 titles and bigger mid-tier titles like Mario Tennis Aces, Fire Emblem, and Yoshi. I doubt it hits 2012's total unless they announce another big surprise title like Animal Crossing for this year.

there's a smash and a pokemon to be released this year.
plus Mario Tenis, Yoshi and maybe Fire Emblem and Bayonetta.
 

KillerMan91

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,354
It depends entirely on pricepoint trajectory and revision path imo. Switch is unique in that it can also follow a handheld model going forward.

I guess we shall see. I don't think even price point matter that much in the end. When console can be used as home console some households will do so and will have no need for extra units.


Consider the following: here are the number for DS (not 3DS) for March 2005, which aligns approximately with where Switch is at in its lifetime:

January:
Nintendo DS 108,561
Nintendo DS 53,527
Nintendo DS 44,608
Nintendo DS 43,226

February:
DS 29,552
NDS 26,205
NDS: 22,363
DS 26,761

March:
DS - 25,759
Nintendo DS 26,537
DS 22,446
DS 55,825
DS 43,023

Compared to Switch January-March 2018:

January:
NSW | 146.006
NSW | 37.500
NSW | 43.027
NSW | 47.107

February:
NSW | 49.165
NSW | 43.404
NSW | 39.303
NSW | 39.696

March:
NSW | 45.083
NSW | 45.084
NSW | 54.342
NSW | 50.412
NSW | 44.033

What do we see? DS lost a lot of steam after its first full holiday. This is the biggest platform every to have been released in Japan, and it is struggling compared to what Switch and 3DS were putting out. Now, how did they remedy this? The biggest jump happened when the system got a revision, which was released in Japan in March 2006, so after 2005. How much did the DS go on to sell in 2005? 4.25M. A system that is struggling much more than Switch allegedly is did 4.25M in a year. What was the reason? Software. They released Nintendogs and Brain Training in H1, but neither had short-term effect. What carried them to do big numbers was the release of Animal Crossing and Mario Kart in preparation for the holidays. In a similar way, the Switch will have Pokémon and Smash to provide for the strong push, as well as Yo-kai watch, probably Fortnite, and many other games to push.

What I hope to show here is that what Switch is doing right now, while not impressive compared to 3DS, is a perfectly good number for slow period: it's when the second half of the year doesn't deliver in terms of sales that we should consider things underwhelming: H1 is always rather slow for most systems, even for DS, and as you can see, even the most popular system of all times could struggle when the software pickings were low, only to rebound hugely when the big games were released. The discussion about Switch numbers being underwhelming without considering the software slate ahead of us, and furthermore ignoring that 3DS sales became frontloaded due to its huge price cut, is what annoys people. There's a lot of context here that explains the situation, and choosing to ignore that in favour of a numbers-for-numbers contextless comparison makes no sense.

March 2006 for DS aligns with Switch. March 2005 was only few months after the launch (DS launched in december 2004 in Japan)
 

Mysterio79

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,159
It's funny coming into these threads and always seeing concern for how much money Nintendo is making hand over fist. They are going to absolutely obliterate H2 this year.
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
I guess we shall see. I don't think even price point matter that much in the end. When console can be used as home console some households will do so and will have no need for extra units.




March 2006 for DS aligns with Switch. March 2005 was only few months after the launch (DS launched in december 2004 in Japan)
You're right, I goofed on that part. The comparison could still work depending on DS' availability during those months, but I'm not sure there's any evidence for that anymore.
 

Piston

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,152
Even then, that's a huge difference for whatever Nintendo had during that period. What was doing those numbers that wasn't Sun and Moon?
Looking at Games Data Library, it looks like Week 1 was December 26th to January 1st. A big portion of those sales are Mario Maker 3DS, but there was also Momotaro Dentetsu 3DS and other catalog games.

Pokemon is published by TPC in Japan, is why
Literally what I said in the post you quoted.
 

KtSlime

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,910
Tokyo
That's not what the article says, though:

Seems to refer to Gamefreak themselves, not to the conglomerate of staff working on the game. Maybe Eurogamer misunderstood it, though, you never know with western media.

Never underestimate Eurogamer's ability to misunderstand something said in Japanese.
 

silpheed-mcd

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,384
ComG! Week Sales, 2018 (May 28 - Jun 03)

DeLUq51UQAExyGL.jpg



01/01 [PS4] Dark Souls Remastered - 41 pt (-142 pt)
02/03 [PS4] Detroit: Become Human (Normal Version) - 38 pt (-7 pt)
03/ N [PS4] Hyperdimension Neptunia Re;Birth 1+ (limited edition) - 18 pt
04/ N [PS4] Liar Princess and the Blind Prince - 15 pt

05/17 [NSW] Donkey Kong Tropical Freeze - 13 pt (+5 pt)
06/10 [NSW] Splatoon 2 - 13 pt (+1 pt)
07/ N [PS4] BlazBlue: Cross Tag Battle (normal version) - 12 pt
08/ N [NSW] Liar Princess and the Blind Prince - 12 pt
09/ N [PS4] Hyperdimension Neptunia Re;Birth 1+ (normal version) - 10 pt
10/ N [PSV] Liar Princess and the Blind Prince - 8 pt
11/ N [PSV] Persona 3 Dancing Moon Night - 8 pt

12/13 [NSW] Kirby Star Allies - 8 pt (-1 pt)
13/14 [PS4] Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball 2018 - 6 pt (-2 pt)
14/05 [PS4] Persona 5: Dancing Star Night - 6 pt (-19 pt)
15/ N [PS4] BlazBlue: Cross Tag Battle (limited box) - 6 pt
16/18 [NSW] Nintendo Labo Toy - Con 01: Variety Kit - 6 pt (-1 pt)
17/ R [PS4] Rainbow Six the Advanced Edition - 5 pt
18/ N [PS4] Full Metal Panic! Fight: Who Dares Wins (expert box) - 5pt
19/ N [PS4] Full Metal Panic! Fight: Who Dares Wins (normal version) - 5pt
20/ R [NSW] The Legend of Zelda Breath of the Wild - 5 pt


PS4: 12
NSW: 6
PSV: 2


ComG! Week Sales, 2018 (May 21 - May 27)
https://www.resetera.com/threads/me...2018-may-14-may-20.44339/page-11#post-8409175
 
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Fularu

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,609
So uh, I was wondering lately why the various MC threads were getting shorter and shorter and then I realised..

We're missing a few people now... Oh well, hope Rainrir will be back one day (I enjoyed reading his various takes on the market)

As a side note, it's prety impressive how the Switch evergreens list keeps growing. Nintendo jas yet to release a really disapointing title (Maybe Labo Robot is it?)
 
Oct 26, 2017
20,440
There have been some super questionable rumors about Capcom looking for a port studio to port MH World to Switch (so that would come out around mid 2019 if true since they haven't actually started making the port yet) and some rumors that Capcom is porting MHXX to PS4.

Not sure how well either of those ports would do if these rumors were true.

But would be interesting to see at least.

Hope they're true so we can see.
 

Adventureracing

The Fallen
Nov 7, 2017
8,024
chart1v4uy8.jpg
chart235rwi.jpg


Switch is already 800k behind 3DS in its second year which is already huge and 3DS got NSMB2 + 3DS XL in week 30. Switch was already way behind last year too and was heavily supply constrained which means some sales this year are probably from people that couldn't get a unit this holiday but even then sales are underwhelming.

3DS was less expensive, sure, but Switch is also targeting a much broader audience : fans of consoles and handhelds alike. It's also the only console Nintendo is now strongly supporting with games and promoting. Expectations for its sales have to be high.

The 3DS XL was announced on June 21, 2012 and released on July 28, I think a revision is needed, so a similar scenario is likely, especially as many games are already planned on July the 13th and in the following days .

I don't disagree that the switch fell further behind the 3DS than most expected but I think the conclusions you're drawing are premature. We're literally weeks away from the switch starting the cascade of big SW that will continue through to the end of the year. If all that SW comes and the switch is still falling behind like it currently is I think you can draw a few more conclusions.

Between now and the end of the year the switch will get minecraft, Mario tennis, Pokemon, smash bros, animal crossing, fire emblem, octopath and more. They're set up to have a huge end of this year and I could definitely see the switch matching the 3DS going forward.
 

Wander_

Banned
Feb 26, 2018
5,552
ComG! Week Sales, 2018 (May 28 - Jun 03)

DeLUq51UQAExyGL.jpg



01/01 [PS4] Dark Souls Remastered - 41 pt (-142 pt)
02/03 [PS4] Detroit: Become Human (Normal Version) - 38 pt (-7 pt)
03/ N [PS4] Hyperdimension Neptunia Re;Birth 1+ (limited edition) - 18 pt
04/ N [PS4] Liar Princess and the Blind Prince - 15 pt

05/17 [NSW] Donkey Kong Tropical Freeze - 13 pt (+5 pt)
06/10 [NSW] Splatoon 2 - 13 pt (+1 pt)
07/ N [PS4] BlazBlue: Cross Tag Battle (normal version) - 12 pt
08/ N [NSW] Liar Princess and the Blind Prince - 12 pt
09/ N [PS4] Hyperdimension Neptunia Re;Birth 1+ (normal version) - 10 pt
10/ N [PSV] Liar Princess and the Blind Prince - 8 pt
11/ N [PSV] Persona 3 Dancing Moon Night - 8 pt

12/13 [NSW] Kirby Star Allies - 8 pt (-1 pt)
13/14 [PS4] Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball 2018 - 6 pt (-2 pt)
14/05 [PS4] Persona 5: Dancing Star Night - 6 pt (-19 pt)
15/ N [PS4] BlazBlue: Cross Tag Battle (limited box) - 6 pt
16/18 [NSW] Nintendo Labo Toy - Con 01: Variety Kit - 6 pt (-1 pt)
17/ R [PS4] Rainbow Six the Advanced Edition - 5 pt
18/ N [PS4] Full Metal Panic! Fight: Who Dares Wins (expert box) - 5pt
19/ N [PS4] Full Metal Panic! Fight: Who Dares Wins (normal version) - 5pt
20/ R [NSW] The Legend of Zelda Breath of the Wild - 5 pt


PS4: 12
NSW: 6
PSV: 2


ComG! Week Sales, 2018 (May 21 - May 27)
https://www.resetera.com/threads/me...2018-may-14-may-20.44339/page-11#post-8409175

...where is the Switch version of BlazBlue?
 

schuelma

Member
Oct 24, 2017
5,901
There have been some super questionable rumors about Capcom looking for a port studio to port MH World to Switch (so that would come out around mid 2019 if true since they haven't actually started making the port yet) and some rumors that Capcom is porting MHXX to PS4.
.


Where are you seeing those? Neither of them make much sense, honestly.
 

Jon Carter

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
5,746
So uh, I was wondering lately why the various MC threads were getting shorter and shorter and then I realised..

We're missing a few people now... Oh well, hope Rainrir will be back one day (I enjoyed reading his various takes on the market)

As a side note, it's prety impressive how the Switch evergreens list keeps growing. Nintendo jas yet to release a really disapointing title (Maybe Labo Robot is it?)

Fire Emblem Warriors was very disappointing.