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KtSlime

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,910
Tokyo
Babylon's Fall.

made by platinum

Ah, I just watched the whatever it was preview/trailer/sneaker for it, looks like it will be quite a while before it is out, only a concept video? Or did they show more at the presentation? That Quiet game must be Eidos, cause it's not even on SE's YouTube.

There were several notable absentee's from SE's press conference (Avengers, FF7 remake, Left Alive, etc) which leads me to believe they'll hopefully have a strong presence in the Sony press conference. They showed 5 games at Microsoft's.

That makes sense, I guess. Wish they wouldn't do that, publishers should show their own games at their own booths and conferences, but I guess it helps console manufacturers fluff out their lineup, and everyone does it.
 

ArkhamFantasy

Member
Oct 25, 2017
13,550
Babylons Fall had a 2019 release window. I'm really surprised Platinum can handle so many games at once, they've got 3 HD games announced, plus two mobile games. And i dont think Kamiya is working on any of those, so presumably they have at least one other project in development, and Square is probably itching to get Nier 3 development started as soon as possible.
 

KtSlime

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,910
Tokyo
How could you forget the Quiet Man!?

SE forgot Quiet Man as well...

Babylons Fall had a 2019 release window. I'm really surprised Platinum can handle so many games at once, they've got 3 HD games announced, plus two mobile games. And i dont think Kamiya is working on any of those, so presumably they have at least one other project in development, and Square is probably itching to get Nier 3 development started as soon as possible.

Really that soon? That's a bit surprising, the video I watched was a minute of stills with dates and then 30 seconds of a battle between knights/summons/ancient giant robots? Is that the same as what they showed?
 

FormatCompatible

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,071
Babylons Fall had a 2019 release window. I'm really surprised Platinum can handle so many games at once, they've got 3 HD games announced, plus two mobile games. And i dont think Kamiya is working on any of those, so presumably they have at least one other project in development, and Square is probably itching to get Nier 3 development started as soon as possible.
Yeah you are probably right, Kamiya confirmed he is not the director of Babylon's Fall (in a very Kamiya way lol) and I really don't think he is the director of Bayo 3 so it's very much possible there is another game coming from him.

 

KtSlime

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,910
Tokyo

Mark H

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,679
Yeah, now the Sony's conference is over, it's clear SE really don't have much of anything to show this year (except KH3).
 

ILikeFeet

DF Deet Master
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
61,987
But we pretty much know what that looks like. It's just a port.
While true, I still find it odd they didnt bother to show something at their conference when they shown Octopath. And SE aren't even publishing those games in the west.

Octopath felt like it was a "quota" addition anyway since it was way out of sync with their presentation. Like they asked Nintendo for a trailer to slip in there
 

ggx2ac

Sales Heaven or Sales Hell?
Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,504
So... nobody wanted to mention how Kindgom Hearts 3 and Resident Evil 2 release on the same day next year? January 25th 2019 in Japan.
 

Fisico

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,106
Paris
I noticed that as well, weird thing.

I think SE does a great job for the most part, especially in mobile, music, and manga, but getting their headline major titles out on time is as realistic as them finally delivering the PS3 port of Lost Odyssey.

You're asking for the impossible there, Square-Enix buying Mistwalker, Microsoft relinquishing rights on the IP, Sakaguchi back where he came from and all that

But in all seriousness you were thinking about The Last Remnant surely :p
 

Fularu

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,609
I'm not sure RE2 is going to be that successful in Japan

By that I mean I don't think it will top 350k units when all is said and done, it really looks like a game made with the west in mind again

Capcom really is all in on the foreign market
 

fiendcode

Member
Oct 26, 2017
24,926
I think RE2 will top RE7, both in Japan and overseas. 3rd person should help immensely in the home market.
 

klanar

Member
Jun 9, 2018
398
What do you guys think the LTD of switch hardware will be before smash releases? 5 mil? 5.1 mil?
 

sfortunato

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,740
Italy
Apparently, nothing announced at E3 will have any meaningful impact in Japan.

KH, RE and DMC can be big hit but I don't see them attracting any sizable audience to PS4.
 

KtSlime

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,910
Tokyo
I noticed that as well, weird thing.



You're asking for the impossible there, Square-Enix buying Mistwalker, Microsoft relinquishing rights on the IP, Sakaguchi back where he came from and all that

But in all seriousness you were thinking about The Last Remnant surely :p
It's been so long I had forgotten the name. Yeah, I meant The Last Remnant. However both are likely impossible.
 

Lite_Agent

Member
Oct 26, 2017
4,572
Somewhere. I think.
You mean the game that Hino hinted in Dengeki Playstation?

I don't remember where it was first announced/teased, but I assume it's the same thing.

Really wonder what that event on June 27th is, can't be the Level-5 Vision 2018 since I remember it announced for this Fall.


Nvm, it's a brand new game to celebrate the 5th Anniversary of Yo-kai Watch. Event is to be livestreamed on YouTube at 12PM JST.

Looks like it's a mobile game after all:

スマホで大冒険に出発!?
 
Last edited:

sfortunato

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,740
Italy
RE2 sold more than 2m back then. RE5 sold 1m considering all versions and RE6 got pretty close.

RE2 can do very well, perhaps 700k+.
 

klanar

Member
Jun 9, 2018
398
Depends on Smash's release date, I'm expecting Switch to be at 5.2M by September. If Smash launches late September I could see Switch being close to 5.3M prior to it's launch.
Interesting, am I underestimating how much better summer is compared to spring relating to switch hardware? Im expecting 55k average from now to beginning of september.
 

DarkDetective

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
4,906
The Netherlands
What do you guys think the LTD of switch hardware will be before smash releases? 5 mil? 5.1 mil?
When I look at last year's summer, which had ARMS and Splatoon 2 as big titles, there were 651.377 Switch units sold between 4 June 2017 and 3 September 2017 (13 weeks, 50.106 units per week). And if we extend that to the end of September, we get a sales number of 857.525 units until 1 October 2017 (17 weeks, 50.442 units per week).

This Summer, we get Mario Tennis Aces in the ARMS slot - which I think will have higher software sales, but I don't think it will have much more influence on the hardware sales -, Octopath Traveler, Splatoon 2 Octo Expansion, and Taiko no Tatsujin in July. While those are all big hitters, I think those combined will also not have a bigger influence on Switch hardware sales than the initial Splatoon 2 release when that released at that point of the Switch's lifespan. Octopath Traveler may be the first JRPG of its kind on the Switch, but that's a genre that appeals to core gamers, who are more likely to be among first adopters and already have Xenoblade Chronicles 2, Atelier, Disgaea, and the promise of Fire Emblem.

I think the 50k/week line is a good one to follow until the first big September release, whether that's Smash or something else (it's not set in stone that Smash is a September title after all). That would mean the Switch would be at ~5,05 million units at that point. Maybe the actual number will be a bit higher, depending on the E3 promise Nintendo will deliver later today, but I think that won't be very significant to the total. I think your estimate of 5M to 5,1M is a good one.
 

klanar

Member
Jun 9, 2018
398
When I look at last year's summer, which had ARMS and Splatoon 2 as big titles, there were 651.377 Switch units sold between 4 June 2017 and 3 September 2017 (13 weeks, 50.106 units per week). And if we extend that to the end of September, we get a sales number of 857.525 units until 1 October 2017 (17 weeks, 50.442 units per week).

This Summer, we get Mario Tennis Aces in the ARMS slot - which I think will have higher software sales, but I don't think it will have much more influence on the hardware sales -, Octopath Traveler, Splatoon 2 Octo Expansion, and Taiko no Tatsujin in July. While those are all big hitters, I think those combined will also not have a bigger influence on Switch hardware sales than the initial Splatoon 2 release when that released at that point of the Switch's lifespan. Octopath Traveler may be the first JRPG of its kind on the Switch, but that's a genre that appeals to core gamers, who are more likely to be among first adopters and already have Xenoblade Chronicles 2, Atelier, Disgaea, and the promise of Fire Emblem.

I think the 50k/week line is a good one to follow until the first big September release, whether that's Smash or something else (it's not set in stone that Smash is a September title after all). That would mean the Switch would be at ~5,05 million units at that point. Maybe the actual number will be a bit higher, depending on the E3 promise Nintendo will deliver later today, but I think that won't be very significant to the total. I think your estimate of 5M to 5,1M is a good one.
Before predicting my number I checked 2017's numbers during the same period and predicted around the same average per week. Even though the switch had splatoon 2 and ARMS in that same period, the very low weeks brought the average down and kept it at 50kavg. This year doesnt have both games from last year, but it wont have any low weeks. It can be 50-55k avg this time around since there is more supply.
 

DarkDetective

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
4,906
The Netherlands
Nelke and the Legendary Alchemists: Atelier of the New World announced for PS4, Switch and Vita. 2018 release.

Before predicting my number I checked 2017's numbers during the same period and predicted around the same average per week. Even though the switch had splatoon 2 and ARMS in that same period, the very low weeks brought the average down and kept it at 50kavg. This year doesnt have both games from last year, but it wont have any low weeks. It can be 50-55k avg this time around since there is more supply.
I hope so. Switch YTD 2018 would have been lower than Switch YTD 2017 if it wasn't for a massive Week 1 with 146k units. It helps that there's more third-party support now, but I don't think any (except Taiko, maybe) will sell hardware. And when looking at Spring, since the weekend before Kirby Star Allies release, 493.163 Switch units have been sold, which is lower than the 535.509 units from the same period last year, despite not being supply constrained this year. I'm a bit pessimistic about the upcoming Summer to be honest.
 

klanar

Member
Jun 9, 2018
398
Nelke and the Legendary Alchemists: Atelier of the New World announced for PS4, Switch and Vita. 2018 release.


I hope so. Switch YTD 2018 would have been lower than Switch YTD 2017 if it wasn't for a massive Week 1 with 146k units. It helps that there's more third-party support now, but I don't think any (except Taiko, maybe) will sell hardware. And when looking at Spring, since the weekend before Kirby Star Allies release, 493.163 Switch units have been sold, which is lower than the 535.509 units from the same period last year, despite not being supply constrained this year. I'm a bit pessimistic about the upcoming Summer to be honest.
Welp i was being pessimistic for 50-55k avg, but your logic makes sense...
 

klanar

Member
Jun 9, 2018
398
To give my post a bit more nuance: of course Switch had a big launch week in 2017, but that one isn't included in the Spring period (I didn't count the first two weeks of Switch sales for Spring 2017). So it's pretty similar to 2017 so far, no matter how you look at it.
Is it possible that either a new fire emblem or yoshi can be placed on august since it has no nintendo release? I should probably just wait a couple hours -.-
 

cw_sasuke

Member
Oct 27, 2017
26,400
We are still in the low period with the Switch right now. Post Mario Tennis Aces/Minecraft/Fortnite things will pick up for the Switch, we already know July is packed and the e3 announcements will revitalize excitement for the system - which already started a bit with the Lets Go Pikachu/Evee presser.
 

klanar

Member
Jun 9, 2018
398
You mentioning fortnite made me curious, how popular is it in Japan? Is it also on ios in Japan?
 

Nocturnal

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
1,321
2017 FY Hardware Sales Japan until Splatoon 2 launch:
Week 14: 41.193
Week 15: 45.673
Week 16: 48.694
Week 17: 76.679 Mario Kart 8 Deluxe & Golden Week
Week 18: 47.911
Week 19: 24.712
Week 20: 26.114
Week 21: 27.146
Week 22: 23.524
Week 23: 27.291
Week 24: 37.709 Arms
Week 25: 22.361
Week 26: 25.805
Week 27: 26.256
Week 28: 31.906


2018 FY
Hardware Sales Japan:
Week 14: 40.016(-3% YoY)
Week 15: 36.308(-21% YoY)
Week 16: 34.165(-30% YoY)
Week 17: 38.752(-49% YoY)
Week 18: 53.113(+11% YoY) DKTF & Golden Week
Week 19: 31.720(+28% YoY)
Week 20: 33.125(+27% YoY)
Week 21: 36.590(+35% YoY)
Week 22: 40.587(+73% YoY)

On average during the next 6 weeks Switch averaged 28.5K in 2017, I'd be suprised if we don't see at least a 50% increase YoY for June & early July(>40K p/w). So around 250K for the next 6 weeks.

Week 29: 98.999 Splatoon 2
Week 30: 89.314
Week 31: 61.933
Week 32: 87.798
Week 33: 22.277
Week 34: 69.654 Monster Hunter XX
Week 35: 50.074

Than after Splatoon 2 launch Obon began and Switch averaged a 68.5K per week until September. Personally I'd be surprised if Switch this Obon falls below 80K on average. Last year pretty much they sold what they shipped during Obon and failed to meet demand generated by Splatoon 2. This year I anticipate that they have enough stock to meet demand and there won't be DQXI pushing other systems. Gotta remember that last year Switch was up against PS4/3DS which both got a decent boost due ot DQXI - this Obon Switch is gaining all relevant summer vacation releases and we are likely to see further consolidation of the hardware market.