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Media Create Sales: Week 22, 2018 (May 28 - Jun 03)

cw_sasuke

Banned
Member
Oct 27, 2017
6,625
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Because they are all on PS4.
They wouldnt have mayor impact if they were on Switch either.
Okay maybe KH would be bigger if it was on Switch and PS4....but its clear that SE isnt going to leave that PS4 exclusivity train anytime soon.
You mentioning fortnite made me curious, how popular is it in Japan? Is it also on ios in Japan?
The Switch release will def. help Fortnite in Japan...just like the console releases of Minecraft helped the IP here.
If the Switch version has the the exclusive local coop mode even better.
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,874
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It will be interesting to see what Gung Ho's Switch game is, that's the only unknown quantity right now.

Other than that it's looking like a year late port of DBFZ is probably the biggest Switch third party announcement for Japan.
 
Oct 25, 2017
5,504
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It will be interesting to see what Gung Ho's Switch game is, that's the only unknown quantity right now.

Other than that it's looking like a year late port of DBFZ is probably the biggest Switch third party announcement for Japan
.
You truly never disappoint.

Are you really saying that no 3rd party game will cross 150k this year ?
 
Oct 24, 2017
2,272
0
It will be interesting to see what Gung Ho's Switch game is, that's the only unknown quantity right now.

Other than that it's looking like a year late port of DBFZ is probably the biggest Switch third party announcement for Japan.
Vesperia remaster was announced two days ago as well. And what 2018 Japanese games would you say are bigger announcements for PS4 out of E3?
 

Joseki

Banned
Member
Nov 5, 2017
3,447
0
2017 FY Hardware Sales Japan until Splatoon 2 launch:
Week 14: 41.193
Week 15: 45.673
Week 16: 48.694
Week 17: 76.679 Mario Kart 8 Deluxe & Golden Week
Week 18: 47.911
Week 19: 24.712
Week 20: 26.114
Week 21: 27.146
Week 22: 23.524
Week 23: 27.291
Week 24: 37.709 Arms
Week 25: 22.361
Week 26: 25.805
Week 27: 26.256
Week 28: 31.906


2018 FY
Hardware Sales Japan:
Week 14: 40.016(-3% YoY)
Week 15: 36.308(-21% YoY)
Week 16: 34.165(-30% YoY)
Week 17: 38.752(-49% YoY)
Week 18: 53.113(+11% YoY) DKTF & Golden Week
Week 19: 31.720(+28% YoY)
Week 20: 33.125(+27% YoY)
Week 21: 36.590(+35% YoY)
Week 22: 40.587(+73% YoY)

On average during the next 6 weeks Switch averaged 28.5K in 2017, I'd be suprised if we don't see at least a 50% increase YoY for June & early July(>40K p/w). So around 250K for the next 6 weeks.

Week 29: 98.999 Splatoon 2
Week 30: 89.314
Week 31: 61.933
Week 32: 87.798
Week 33: 22.277
Week 34: 69.654 Monster Hunter XX
Week 35: 50.074

Than after Splatoon 2 launch Obon began and Switch averaged a 68.5K per week until September. Personally I'd be surprised if Switch this Obon falls below 80K on average. Last year pretty much they sold what they shipped during Obon and failed to meet demand generated by Splatoon 2. This year I anticipate that they have enough stock to meet demand and there won't be DQXI pushing other systems. Gotta remember that last year Switch was up against PS4/3DS which both got a decent boost due ot DQXI - this Obon Switch is gaining all relevant summer vacation releases and we are likely to see further consolidation of the hardware market.
Week 14/22

2017: 361.646
2018: 344.376

NSW is on target to suprass the 2017 result in Q2 by >100k. I guess it's a good result looking at the release schedule.
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,874
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Then I stand corrected.

However, it is not like there was a lot of big Japan-relevant games that are releasing this year either. The same can be said about the other platforms.
Vesperia remaster was announced two days ago as well. And what 2018 Japanese games would you say are bigger announcements for PS4 out of E3?
I think DBFZ will easily outsell Vesperia on Switch considering how Tales of the Abyss did on 3DS and that there's also a PS4 SKU.

In 2018 there's not a lot on PS4, but you can't exactly ignore all the (early) 2019 games announced for PS4. Some of them will be decent sellers.

Let's wait a mere 4 hours before making claims we can't take back :p
Considering what all the insiders are saying there's not going to be anything big. We'll see, as I said Gung Ho's game is a wildcard. That could be big.
 
Oct 24, 2017
2,272
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Considering what all the insiders are saying there's not going to be anything big. We'll see, as I said Gung Ho's game is a wildcard. That could be big.
I do appreciate how you emerge from your shell after a month right when "Nintendo E3 sucks" rumors are at their apex.
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,485
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Whatever Oregano, bar MHW, YW4 is going to be bigger as a third party than any PS4 game in Japan.

Japanese companies like NB, SE and Capcom have more or less given up on the domestic console market and are either going western audiences in full force (Capcom, NB) or betting big on the Mobile Market (Square Enix)

Lamenting all the time that the Switch is screwed because it doesn't have third party support in Japan, besides getting old, is you thoroughly missing the point and status on that market for over a year now.

The Switch doesn'T need the big AAA support from those companies (yeah sure it would be nice to see RE2, DMC5 or KH3 on the system) what it needs is what it'S actually getting, which is all the mid/low range of games that have nowhere else to go and will make it flourish in the domestic market... As it currently is.
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,166
0
Tokyo
How do E3 participants get their time slots, is it paid or randomly assigned? I can't decide who has the better time slot, but staying up till 2AM to watch the Nintendo presentation is a bit crummy. Sony's was at 10AM which was much nicer for me at least.


Oh and Vesperia Switch will outsell DBFZ in Japan, calling it now.

DB is loved greatly here, but fans want a bit more out of a DB game than your standard fighting game.
 
Oct 26, 2017
1,766
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Japan
I’m not sure RE2 is going to be that successful in Japan

By that I mean I don’t think it will top 350k units when all is said and done, it really looks like a game made with the west in mind again

Capcom really is all in on the foreign market
How does the RE2make look like it has "the west in mind" any more than the original? What would make the game sell better in Japan?

I mean, this isn't RE5. Leon looks like a young ikemen. I'm guessing we'll also see a cloud version released for Switch, if 7 performs well enough.

I think RE2 will top RE7, both in Japan and overseas. 3rd person should help immensely in the home market.
I don't have anything to back this up, but this sounds like it rings true.
 
Oct 25, 2017
12,638
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How do E3 participants get their time slots, is it paid or randomly assigned? I can't decide who has the better time slot, but staying up till 2AM to watch the Nintendo presentation is a bit crummy. Sony's was at 10AM which was much nicer for me at least.
They set the time slots themselves. The first SE presser was actually slated for the same time as Nintendo's direct before SE moved
 
Oct 25, 2017
5,748
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22
The Netherlands
How do E3 participants get their time slots, is it paid or randomly assigned? I can't decide who has the better time slot, but staying up till 2AM to watch the Nintendo presentation is a bit crummy. Sony's was at 10AM which was much nicer for me at least.


Oh and Vesperia Switch will outsell DBFZ in Japan, calling it now.

DB is loved greatly here, but fans want a bit more out of a DB game than your standard fighting game.
Well, Sony was at 3:30 AM in Europe, not exactly prime time.

You do have a point, though: considering Sony is more prevalent in Europe while Nintendo is more prevalent in Japan, you'd think Nintendo would pick the slot that works least well for Europe while Sony would pick the slot that works least well for Japan. As it stands, it's the other way around. It's a bit weird.

Add me to the list of people expecting Vesperia to sell more than DBFZ on Switch, btw.
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,166
0
Tokyo
In regards to RE2makes looks, I think the characters are too deep in the uncanny valley, and that might turn off a bunch of fans in Japan. We aren't all into that photo realism like the West.

I have my own issues for not liking what I saw in the presentation. Taking a great game with wonderful tank controls and replacing obfuscated camera angles with over the shoulder is not my cup of tea, but this is personal for me, and I don't think many here share this opinion.

It will do better than 7 if they keep the story of 2 in-tact.
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,485
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How does the RE2make look like it has "the west in mind" any more than the original? What would make the game sell better in Japan?

I mean, this isn't RE5. Leon looks like a young ikemen. I'm guessing we'll also see a cloud version released for Switch, if 7 performs well enough.



I don't have anything to back this up, but this sounds like it rings true.
I don't see "super gritty realistic TPS" as beeing something that will resonate with the japanese audiences.
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,166
0
Tokyo
They set the time slots themselves. The first SE presser was actually slated for the same time as Nintendo's direct before SE moved
Interesting, I wonder how they eliminate competing for the best slots.

Well, Sony was at 3:30 AM in Europe, not exactly prime time.

You do have a point, though: considering Sony is more prevalent in Europe while Nintendo is more prevalent in Japan, you'd think Nintendo would pick the slot that works least well for Europe while Sony would pick the slot that works least well for Japan. As it stands, it's the other way around. It's a bit weird.

Add me to the list of people expecting Vesperia to sell more than DBFZ on Switch, btw.

I mean, 9AM California/1AM Tokyo isn't that bad of split, but still, I think the 6PM/10AM would have been better.
 
Oct 25, 2017
12,638
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Interesting, I wonder how they eliminate competing for the best slots
For the main three, their dates/times have been historical. Though there was that Sony/MS switch many years ago. Nintendo always went last and right before the show floor opened. Everyone else is sorta historical too, EA, then Ubisoft. I guess they work with streamers like Twitch to not step on toes
 
Oct 25, 2017
1,950
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I'm also wondering about how the press conferences are being handled. Does ESA (those who handle E3) also play a role in those? Technically, all the press conferences are before E3 (which starts at 11am PST today, if i'm not mistaken).

EDIT: I see the reply above regarding them setting the time themself.
 
Oct 25, 2017
1,572
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Well, Sony was at 3:30 AM in Europe, not exactly prime time.

You do have a point, though: considering Sony is more prevalent in Europe while Nintendo is more prevalent in Japan, you'd think Nintendo would pick the slot that works least well for Europe while Sony would pick the slot that works least well for Japan. As it stands, it's the other way around. It's a bit weird.

Add me to the list of people expecting Vesperia to sell more than DBFZ on Switch, btw.
With Sony I guess they just treat it as North American event. They usually have their own European conference at Gamescom or lately at Paris Game Show and then TGS conference for Japan stuff.

I don't see "super gritty realistic TPS" as beeing something that will resonate with the japanese audiences.
Seemed to resonate just fine with RE5.
 
Oct 26, 2017
1,766
0
Japan
I don't see "super gritty realistic TPS" as beeing something that will resonate with the japanese audiences.
It's not really that far removed from what the original was for its time, which featured some of the most "realistic" graphics the PS1 was capable of and blowing zombies in half. If the characters have enough "charm," and they can market it right, they should be able to sell the game.
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,874
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Didn't Tales of the Abyss only do like 130k on 3DS?

By virtue of having a PS4 SKU that number will be at least halved for Vesperia Switch.

DBFZ should easily do 70k+

I do appreciate how you emerge from your shell after a month right when "Nintendo E3 sucks" rumors are at their apex.
I literally came back just for Nintendo's E3, this is the first proper day off I've had in weeks. Regardless of the quality of announcements I probably won't be posting again until the end of next month.

Whatever Oregano, bar MHW, YW4 is going to be bigger as a third party than any PS4 game in Japan.

Japanese companies like NB, SE and Capcom have more or less given up on the domestic console market and are either going western audiences in full force (Capcom, NB) or betting big on the Mobile Market (Square Enix)

Lamenting all the time that the Switch is screwed because it doesn't have third party support in Japan, besides getting old, is you thoroughly missing the point and status on that market for over a year now.

The Switch doesn'T need the big AAA support from those companies (yeah sure it would be nice to see RE2, DMC5 or KH3 on the system) what it needs is what it'S actually getting, which is all the mid/low range of games that have nowhere else to go and will make it flourish in the domestic market... As it currently is.
I wasn't the one that brought up a comparison to PS4, I didn't mention it nor did I say anything about RE2, DMC5 or KH3(none of which were expected for Switch as far as I know).

Literally all I said is that DBFZ is likely the most relevant announcement for Switch for Japan in terms of third party games. Which I think is true, unless you're throwing your hat in with the people thinking Vesperia will be bigger.
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,319
0
In regards to RE2makes looks, I think the characters are too deep in the uncanny valley, and that might turn off a bunch of fans in Japan. We aren't all into that photo realism like the West.

I have my own issues for not liking what I saw in the presentation. Taking a great game with wonderful tank controls and replacing obfuscated camera angles with over the shoulder is not my cup of tea, but this is personal for me, and I don't think many here share this opinion.

It will do better than 7 if they keep the story of 2 in-tact.
"wonderful tank controls"

This is some next level reaching. Game is gonna be fine with ots gameplay.
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,166
0
Tokyo
For the main three, their dates/times have been historical. Though there was that Sony/MS switch many years ago. Nintendo always went last and right before the show floor opened. Everyone else is sorta historical too, EA, then Ubisoft. I guess they work with streamers like Twitch to not step on toes
Neat. Learn something everyday, thanks.

Oregano Abyss was WAY under printed and original prints of it on 3DS go for good money.

"wonderful tank controls"

This is some next level reaching. Game is gonna be fine with ots gameplay.
How is it reaching, this is my personal opinion of the game. I did not say that would be a reason it does not sell well. Am I not allowed to have personal opinions about how I like to play a game?

Does Japan really have a problem with more realistic models, though? I mean, as long as they're still beautiful people (within Japanese standards), I feel like it should be fine. Square has been chasing highly stylized realism since FFVIII. That's not what's going on here, but I fail to see how either character would be seen as off putting. This is probably one of the most Japan friendly incarnations of Leon yet. If anything the cutscene direction and dialogue felt very western to me. The trailer itself is a different matter.

I would personally prefer 3rd person angles, but this appears to be a fairly faithful remake, with puzzles already being mentioned in a press release, so I'm pretty happy.
FF13 and Bio5/6 were on the anime side of that valley. They were approaching some sort of 'if we lived in an anime universe this is what real looks like' Re2make is clearly IMO trying to approach realistic human facial traits.
 
Oct 26, 2017
1,766
0
Japan
In regards to RE2makes looks, I think the characters are too deep in the uncanny valley, and that might turn off a bunch of fans in Japan. We aren't all into that photo realism like the West.

I have my own issues for not liking what I saw in the presentation. Taking a great game with wonderful tank controls and replacing obfuscated camera angles with over the shoulder is not my cup of tea, but this is personal for me, and I don't think many here share this opinion.

It will do better than 7 if they keep the story of 2 in-tact.
Does Japan really have a problem with more realistic models, though? I mean, as long as they're still beautiful people (within Japanese standards), I feel like it should be fine. Square has been chasing highly stylized realism since FFVIII. That's not what's going on here, but I fail to see how either character would be seen as off putting. This is probably one of the most Japan friendly incarnations of Leon yet. If anything the cutscene direction and dialogue felt very western to me. The trailer itself is a different matter.

I would personally prefer 3rd person angles, but this appears to be a fairly faithful remake, with puzzles already being mentioned in a press release, so I'm pretty happy.
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,485
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Didn't Tales of the Abyss only do like 130k on 3DS?

By virtue of having a PS4 SKU that number will be at least halved for Vesperia Switch.

DBFZ should easily do 70k+



I literally came back just for Nintendo's E3, this is the first proper day off I've had in weeks. Regardless of the quality of announcements I probably won't be posting again until the end of next month.



I wasn't the one that brought up a comparison to PS4, I didn't mention it nor did I say anything about RE2, DMC5 or KH3(none of which were expected for Switch as far as I know).

Literally all I said is that DBFZ is likely the most relevant announcement for Switch for Japan in terms of third party games. Which I think is true, unless you're throwing your hat in with the people thinking Vesperia will be bigger.
Unless DBFz explodes in Japan it’s not even going to be the best selling BN game this year for the Switch, that will most definitely be Taiko

If we’re merely talking about games announced at E3, seeing how most of the traditional japan focused third parties aren’t even there, I really fail to see your point. TGS is the event that matters to them for the domestic market. Obviously E3 only isn’t going to be anything special for them. It’s a western market focused event through and through.
 
Oct 27, 2017
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Guys...he is saying that IF DBFZ will be announced for Switch, AMONG THE E3 games announced for the console, it could be the best seller game in Japan for that console.
What is THAT strange?
 
Oct 28, 2017
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In 2018 there's not a lot on PS4, but you can't exactly ignore all the (early) 2019 games announced for PS4. Some of them will be decent sellers.
Last year we said the exact same thing about Q1 2018 for PS4 and everything bar MH has performed in the range of mediocre to poorly. This is absolutely not a given at this point in the PS4's life.
 

ACL

Member
Nov 18, 2017
787
0
In 2018 there's not a lot on PS4, but you can't exactly ignore all the (early) 2019 games announced for PS4. Some of them will be decent sellers.
For PS4 in Japan, early 2019 looks to be weaker than this years, with software and hardware sales most likely going to reflect quite clearly this fact, with declines in both.

We also know that there is that weird focus on 1Q on PS, this year even with a quite disappointing rest of the year as a consequence, while Nintendo is about to release some million sellers and no there's no reason to exclude them in discussions. Even then there's Youkai Watch this vor next year. So what exactly is your point?
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,166
0
Tokyo
Okay, as long as we're talking about 2019, how do you expect RE2 to perform? Will it hit a million sales? 5-700k?
Just looked at the other REmakes, the outlook doesn't look good...

Code:
PS4    Resident Evil 0 HD Remaster    19.717    49.005    Capcom    21/01/2016
PS4    Resident Evil HD Remaster    4.280    45.415    Capcom    20/01/2015
 
Oct 26, 2017
1,766
0
Japan
Just looked at the other REmakes, the outlook doesn't look good...

Code:
PS4    Resident Evil 0 HD Remaster    19.717    49.005    Capcom    21/01/2016
PS4    Resident Evil HD Remaster    4.280    45.415    Capcom    20/01/2015
These are ports of decade old games, but yeah, those numbers are pretty fucking low.

Edit: It looks like I should expect something more in the 200-300k range, given 7's sales. Maybe 500k if 2 is still popular enough.
 
Oct 28, 2017
339
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Re2 Remake could reach 500.000 LTD. I see it doing at least REmake numbers on GC (350.000 IIRC?).

Anyway, less than 3 hours for the Nintendo direct ;D
 

ACL

Member
Nov 18, 2017
787
0
I wouldn't be too pessimistic about RE2s sales expectations, it can sell from 250k-700k amd might even attract some fans for classic RE that didn't bother with the quite different RE7. It's also the first mainline RE since RE6 with a more popular gameplay formula.
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,485
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Ah, my mistake. For some reason i thought it was announced about a week ago or so, before E3.

How much do you think FIFA 19 will sell?
FIFA 2018 is at 130k+ as it is

I'm expecting FIFA 19 to be significantly higher. Especially with Konami beeing stupid again and not having a Switch SKU for Winning Eleven 2019
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,874
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Neat. Learn something everyday, thanks.

Oregano Abyss was WAY under printed and original prints of it on 3DS go for good money.
I know it was undershipped here in Europe but was that the case in Japan?

From what I remember they expected 250k sales and it was regarded as an underwhelming result.

Unless DBFz explodes in Japan it’s not even going to be the best selling BN game this year for the Switch, that will most definitely be Taiko

If we’re merely talking about games announced at E3, seeing how most of the traditional japan focused third parties aren’t even there, I really fail to see your point. TGS is the event that matters to them for the domestic market. Obviously E3 only isn’t going to be anything special for them. It’s a western market focused event through and through.
E3 is still the biggest gaming expo every year and the category of games that hold no relevance there are a rapidly shrinking sector. Microsoft just had a Tales remaster and a Shonen Jump crossover game on stage at E3. You do have a point about Fifa being bigger than DBFZ though.

Code:
3DS    Tales of the Abyss    68.218    153.276    Bandai Namco    30/06/2011
I was a little bit off but yeah not an exceptional amount and the PS4 sku of Vesperia will take the lion's share most likely.

Last year we said the exact same thing about Q1 2018 for PS4 and everything bar MH has performed in the range of mediocre to poorly. This is absolutely not a given at this point in the PS4's life.
That's definitely a good point.
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,485
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Tales is bigger in western markets than in Japan.

Berseria sold 75% of its units outside of Japan

Same with the various shonen properties.